In his second start back after returning from the DL with elbow inflammation, J.A. Happ gave us a super bleghy 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks against the Athletics. I’d reference K/BB numbers for the entire year, but it’s a bit out of whack across his five starts of the season given his first two starts that earned 17 Ks and 0 walks followed by three starts of 10 Ks and 6 walks. Then there’s a 30.8% HR/FB rate that makes his xFIP turn into 3.42 despite a 5.33 ERA…let’s legit throw all it away. It’s five starts and he’s had just two back from the DL now. Next we have Seattle (yay!) ChiSox (nay!), Royals (yay!), and after that I think we can get a good idea of what we’re dealing with. My expectation is along the lines of a 3.60+ ERA with a middling K rate and 2.50 BB/9 or so. Essentially a Toby that you’ll need to roster in this ridiculous sea of blegh that is the SP waiver wire.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
Jeff Samardzija – 7.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks. If you had any hope buying low on Braces (Yes, he’s earned an upgrade from Loose Lips), that time has passed. I put him at #21 on The List this week, and I was even tempted to elevated him to #18 given his absurd K/BB (10.62 K/9, 1.24 BB/9) that dictates a 2.89 FIP – obviously his .340 BABIP and 66.7% LOB rate will change as his hard contact is comfortably under 30% and he’s inducing 21.3% soft contact. I want him everywhere.
Eddie Butler – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. This is fine, I don’t really like rolling with Butler, but I can understand owning him in deeper leagues where you need to take your shots at cheap Wins.
Sean Manaea – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. Of course Manaea walked the first batter of the game. I will say that I expected this start to be a little worse considering he threw 100 pitches through five, but he was put out there for the sixth and went 1-2-3 as he ended the day with 111 pitches under his belt against a solid Jays offense. That’s what I’m talking about.
Gio Gonzalez – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Nice stuff here from Gio as he had to deal with the Dodgers. Can’t say that it’s enough for me to ignore his 4.59 FIP and 4.52 xFIP with a soaring 4.48 BB/9 walk rate.
Dan Straily – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. It’s the pedestrian side of Straily that you’re going to have to endure if you want to get a share of the brilliant evenings he’ll have out of the blue.
Carlos Martinez – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. The Ks are there, the walks are somewhat low, but let’s be real. CarMart allowed two baserunners through the first six innings and it all fell apart in the seventh. Womp womp.
Asher Wojciechowski – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. This is one of the better starts we’ll see from Wojciechowski. You’ve learned! I copied and pasted.
Hyun-Jin Ryu – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Yeah, it’s kinda hard having faith in Ryu at this point. He’s going to be back-and-forth while there’s little security that he’ll actually stay healthy.
Mike Fiers – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. WHIP isn’t good, ERA is meh, Ks are low. And this is a good start from Fiers!
Junior Guerra – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. He was our Call Boy and I think this one is a tie as he had a 2.00 WHIP but 1.80 ERA. Strikeouts or a Win would push him over the edge, but 2 and a ND are just not going to cut it. Streamer Record 29-19-9.
Nick Pivetta – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. I went over Pivetta a bit in the podcast and I think we should be aware of him in 12 teamers. Don’t add him, but I can see him coming into his own in the second half and being worth your time. It’s going to be rocky at first, though.
Ian Kennedy – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. I wouldn’t be trusting Kennedy with a stream anytime soon.
Bartolo Colon – 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Yep, that’s what The Giant Peach is doing these days. :(
Joe Musgrove David Paulino vs Kansas City Royals – Not much to choose from here, so I’m going with a meh pitcher with decent upside against one of the worst offenses around. Paulino is getting the start instead and for the same reasons as with Musgrove, I’d roll with him above the other choices.
Mike Foltynewicz vs Philadelphia Phillies – Somehow his ownage percentage dropped after a 10 strikeout performance against the Reds, but there it is. I don’t love this start – I hate how hot/cold Folty is – but he’s the best option for Wednesday.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
German Marquez vs. Chicago Cubs – I don’t like this one, but I need a streamer and everything else is bad news.
Game of the Day
Dinelson Lamet vs. Robbie Ray – Plenty of good games today – Nola vs. Braves, Paxton vs. Twins, Tanaka vs. Pomeranz, Paulino vs Royals, etc. – but this start for Lamet is a big one against the Diamondbacks and will the be a major litmus test.
Nick, would you roll with Clevinger today in Coors? My league has a 12 start limit, but we can go past the limit on Sunday’s.
I think you play it conservatively this early in the week
Agreed, thank you!
Do you see anything in Blake Snell’s recent AAA starts lead you to believe his performance will improve when he’s back up in the Bigs?
The problem will Snell has always been his walk rate. If he shows me that he has the confidence to stay inside the zone and have success, then I’ll buy the chance he can carry it into the majors.
He’s not doing that thus far in the minors, which means I wouldn’t invest in Snell right now.
Man wassup with this Panda and Toby stuff? Is their a dictionary somewhere on this site I’m missing?
Sorry about that!
Yes, we have a Glossary: http://pitcherlist.com/glossary/
Oh cool. Sorry I missed it. Also sorry my sacrifice of rostering JA Happ all year will only net me a Toby. Think I liked things better before I knew what it meant lol.
You rolling Nola out there today?
Yes I am
let us pray
Hey Nick…..what’s your take on Seth Lugo? Possible streamer for weekend start against Atlanta? Any value moving forward? Potential for top 50?
Not much of a fan of Lugo. Last year’s 2.67 ERA was a huge product of luck – .230 BABIP, 85.7 LOB rate, 4.33 FIP, 4.71 xFIP and 38.4% hard contact! – and while I think his Curveball can be an effective offering, there isn’t enough polish all around to make me own him with confidence.
I can see a streamer at times, but not more than that. I prefer the other Spry Chickens (Peacock, Biagini, Delgado, Godley, Cahill when he was healthy, etc.) over him.
The Samardzijaning is happening! Hope he keeps it up, his stuff has been too good for too long to not see it fully realized.