Weekly SP Metrics Update – A Very Patriotic Edition Indeed

(Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire)

Happy Fourth, everybody! I’d like to give a big shout-out to the illustrious Chaz Steinberg, the normal curator of this column who had to take a break this week in his ongoing quest to beat Joey Chestnutt in the annual Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. He’s currently stuffing himself and will be back next week. In the meantime, y’all are stuck with me. Crack that beer, flip those burgers, and kiss the cook – it’s time to dive into this week’s leaderboard. I’ll lay out the numbers and then offer some quick hits and musings on some guys that are currently interesting to me, whether they be making me salivate or pull my hair out. All data is current through Monday’s games (7/2/18.) First, the qualifiers:

 

RANK	Name	Prev Rank	Diff	SCORE	IP	ERA	PD Score	xK%	K%	xK-K%	BB%	xSLG	SLG-xSLG
1	Max Scherzer	1	0	104.1%	120.2	2.16	108.7%	34.3%	36.9%	-2.7%	6.4%	0.337	-0.025
2	Chris Sale	3	+1	103.9%	116.0	2.41	106.0%	32.9%	36.1%	-3.2%	6.4%	0.321	-0.023
3	Jacob deGrom	2	-1	102.8%	107.1	1.84	103.1%	31.0%	31.5%	-0.5%	6.6%	0.316	-0.024
4	Patrick Corbin	4	0	96.8%	106.0	3.14	101.7%	31.2%	32.0%	-0.9%	6.7%	0.388	-0.061
5	Trevor Bauer	5	0	95.7%	113.2	2.45	92.8%	28.1%	31.6%	-3.5%	7.7%	0.343	-0.031
6	Charlie Morton	7	+1	95.5%	102.1	2.55	91.8%	28.5%	31.5%	-3.1%	9.7%	0.338	-0.01
7	Justin Verlander	6	-1	95.4%	118.2	2.12	89.0%	25.9%	31.2%	-5.3%	5.2%	0.322	-0.008
8	Aaron Nola	8	0	93.0%	109.0	2.48	84.9%	24.0%	25.2%	-1.3%	7.3%	0.326	-0.032
9	Blake Snell	12	+3	92.6%	108.2	2.24	92.3%	29.2%	28.6%	0.6%	9.5%	0.381	-0.062
10	Luis Severino	11	+1	92.6%	118.1	1.98	90.6%	26.6%	30.1%	-3.6%	6.3%	0.37	-0.088
11	Jon Gray	9	-2	92.0%	92.0	5.77	91.1%	28.8%	28.9%	-0.1%	7.0%	0.38	0.075
12	James Paxton	17	+5	91.3%	111.2	3.39	92.7%	27.5%	32.4%	-5.0%	7.2%	0.4	-0.04
13	Gerrit Cole	10	-3	91.3%	111.2	2.5	90.1%	27.5%	35.0%	-7.6%	8.4%	0.383	-0.071
14	Lance McCullers Jr.	16	+2	91.3%	101.1	3.55	91.2%	27.8%	25.7%	2.1%	9.2%	0.391	-0.034
15	Carlos Carrasco	13	-2	90.6%	91.1	4.24	94.4%	27.4%	25.6%	1.8%	5.9%	0.422	-0.031
16	Jose Berrios	14	-2	89.4%	107.1	3.52	87.5%	24.4%	25.9%	-1.5%	5.6%	0.392	-0.029
17	Sean Newcomb	18	+1	88.7%	93.0	2.71	78.0%	22.4%	23.8%	-1.4%	10.6%	0.337	-0.016
18	Mike Foltynewicz	27	+9	88.3%	89.0	2.02	77.6%	23.0%	29.5%	-6.5%	11.0%	0.34	-0.041
19	CC Sabathia	[UR]	[N/A]	88.2%	83.1	3.02	82.1%	22.3%	18.5%	3.8%	5.9%	0.371	0.023
20	Tyler Skaggs	22	+2	88.0%	92.0	2.64	85.6%	24.5%	26.4%	-1.9%	7.1%	0.397	-0.029
21	Vince Velasquez	19	-2	88.0%	88.1	4.69	82.4%	25.1%	28.5%	-3.5%	9.1%	0.376	0.049
22	Tyler Anderson	21	-1	87.8%	93.2	4.23	84.4%	24.9%	21.7%	3.2%	7.9%	0.392	0.054
23	Mike Clevinger	20	-3	87.5%	110.0	3.11	83.9%	23.9%	22.2%	1.7%	8.1%	0.393	-0.037
24	Alex Wood	28	+4	87.4%	93.2	3.84	87.8%	23.4%	21.8%	1.6%	4.2%	0.42	-0.026
25	Eduardo Rodriguez	15	-10	87.3%	87.2	4.11	83.2%	23.4%	24.8%	-1.4%	7.4%	0.39	0.007
26	Luis Castillo	31	+5	86.9%	94.1	5.53	94.4%	28.8%	22.3%	6.5%	8.1%	0.471	-0.006
27	Corey Kluber	25	-2	86.7%	119.1	2.64	83.2%	22.6%	26.5%	-4.0%	2.9%	0.399	-0.047
28	Kyle Gibson	23	-5	86.5%	100.2	3.58	84.1%	24.2%	22.6%	1.6%	9.9%	0.407	-0.042
29	Dylan Bundy	26	-3	86.0%	96.0	3.75	94.5%	27.5%	27.0%	0.5%	7.3%	0.484	-0.044
30	Nick Pivetta	24	-6	85.7%	86.0	4.71	85.2%	25.1%	28.1%	-3.1%	7.1%	0.426	0.004
31	Zack Wheeler	42	+11	84.9%	88.2	4.47	81.5%	22.5%	22.6%	-0.2%	8.4%	0.411	-0.049
32	Matthew Boyd	36	+4	84.8%	88.1	4.18	75.9%	21.8%	20.6%	1.2%	9.5%	0.375	-0.016
33	Jameson Taillon	30	-3	84.5%	93.1	4.05	77.7%	20.9%	22.0%	-1.1%	7.1%	0.392	0.006
34	J.A. Happ	34	0	83.7%	102.2	4.03	76.4%	21.3%	26.3%	-5.1%	6.7%	0.393	-0.022
35	Zack Greinke	38	+3	83.5%	103.0	3.41	87.9%	24.4%	25.7%	-1.3%	4.5%	0.473	-0.051
36	Miles Mikolas	33	-3	83.2%	103.1	2.61	75.9%	17.6%	17.5%	0.1%	3.2%	0.396	-0.064
37	Cole Hamels	43	+6	83.2%	102.1	4.05	88.5%	25.6%	23.6%	2.0%	8.4%	0.48	-0.023
38	Gio Gonzalez	46	+8	82.7%	90.2	3.77	76.5%	21.8%	21.8%	0.0%	10.9%	0.407	-0.013
39	Dallas Keuchel	39	0	82.7%	102.1	4.22	74.3%	18.9%	18.1%	0.8%	6.3%	0.393	0.025
40	German Marquez	45	+5	82.1%	91.0	5.14	73.5%	21.3%	23.0%	-1.8%	8.7%	0.396	0.063
41	Clayton Richard	40	-1	82.0%	107.0	4.29	76.9%	21.3%	18.7%	2.6%	7.4%	0.419	-0.022
42	Rick Porcello	32	-10	81.7%	111.0	3.57	72.7%	18.4%	22.2%	-3.9%	5.6%	0.396	-0.025
43	Kevin Gausman	44	+1	81.5%	102.1	4.05	83.8%	23.7%	20.7%	3.0%	5.8%	0.472	-0.007
44	Sonny Gray	41	-3	81.5%	82.2	5.44	76.5%	21.9%	19.7%	2.2%	9.7%	0.424	0.009
45	Tyler Mahle	55	+10	81.3%	91.2	3.83	80.1%	23.1%	23.5%	-0.4%	9.9%	0.45	0.006
46	Kyle Freeland	49	+3	81.2%	105.1	3.25	72.8%	19.1%	19.5%	-0.5%	7.7%	0.402	-0.024
47	Brent Suter	[UR]	[N/A]	81.2%	86.2	4.67	79.6%	21.2%	19.9%	1.3%	4.7%	0.448	-0.009
48	Michael Fulmer	47	-1	81.1%	94.1	4.2	80.2%	21.3%	20.4%	0.9%	7.7%	0.454	-0.058
49	Tyson Ross	37	-12	81.0%	100.0	3.78	75.4%	20.4%	21.4%	-1.1%	9.1%	0.423	-0.032
50	Marco Gonzales	56	+6	80.7%	100.1	3.77	78.8%	19.7%	21.2%	-1.6%	4.9%	0.449	-0.037
51	Zack Godley	48	-3	80.6%	92.1	5.07	81.2%	24.5%	21.9%	2.6%	11.9%	0.467	-0.038
52	Jake Odorizzi	52	0	80.0%	85.2	4.62	81.8%	23.6%	23.5%	0.1%	10.4%	0.478	-0.01
53	Jose Urena	50	-3	80.0%	94.0	4.4	74.3%	18.7%	19.4%	-0.7%	5.4%	0.429	-0.04
54	Julio Teheran	51	-3	79.6%	87.2	4.21	78.0%	22.7%	21.2%	1.5%	11.3%	0.458	-0.04
55	Jake Arrieta	54	-1	79.2%	89.0	3.54	66.5%	15.5%	16.4%	-0.9%	7.8%	0.387	-0.006
56	Jhoulys Chacin	57	+1	78.9%	97.0	3.71	70.7%	19.7%	18.4%	1.3%	10.4%	0.419	-0.053
57	Tanner Roark	59	+2	77.8%	98.1	3.94	72.8%	19.5%	20.3%	-0.8%	8.7%	0.448	-0.047
58	Steven Matz	71	+13	77.5%	83.1	3.46	63.6%	18.3%	21.7%	-3.4%	9.1%	0.391	0.012
59	Luke Weaver	62	+3	77.3%	89.0	5.16	73.5%	20.7%	20.9%	-0.3%	8.7%	0.459	-0.032
60	Sean Manaea	64	+4	76.8%	106.2	3.38	77.3%	20.2%	17.9%	2.3%	4.7%	0.491	-0.123
61	David Price	53	-8	76.7%	96.2	4.28	70.6%	18.4%	22.9%	-4.6%	8.2%	0.448	-0.015
62	Jose Quintana	61	-1	76.4%	85.2	4.31	68.9%	18.3%	21.5%	-3.2%	10.7%	0.44	-0.016
63	Michael Wacha	68	+5	76.3%	84.1	3.2	72.9%	21.0%	20.0%	0.9%	10.1%	0.468	-0.124
64	Mike Fiers	[UR]	[N/A]	75.8%	92.2	3.79	72.2%	18.4%	17.4%	1.0%	5.1%	0.471	-0.018
65	Chad Bettis	67	+2	75.7%	95.1	5.1	71.0%	19.4%	16.9%	2.5%	9.3%	0.464	-0.01
66	Chase Anderson	76	+10	75.7%	88.1	4.18	69.4%	18.7%	19.1%	-0.5%	9.8%	0.454	-0.055
67	Reynaldo Lopez	69	+2	75.7%	100.1	3.68	69.4%	19.1%	17.1%	2.0%	9.8%	0.454	-0.065
68	Kyle Hendricks	58	-10	75.6%	92.0	4.21	72.9%	19.2%	18.3%	0.9%	7.6%	0.478	-0.049
69	Jakob Junis	63	-6	75.6%	101.2	5.13	75.5%	19.8%	20.9%	-1.2%	6.4%	0.495	-0.008
70	Felix Hernandez	73	+3	75.5%	100.1	5.11	72.4%	18.8%	19.4%	-0.7%	8.2%	0.476	-0.046
71	James Shields	65	-6	75.5%	113.0	4.06	72.5%	19.7%	16.1%	3.6%	9.1%	0.477	-0.108
72	Marco Estrada	66	-6	75.3%	89.1	4.53	75.9%	20.6%	18.5%	2.1%	6.4%	0.502	-0.015
73	Trevor Williams	72	-1	75.2%	91.2	4.22	67.9%	17.3%	17.9%	-0.6%	7.9%	0.45	-0.048
74	Ivan Nova	70	-4	75.0%	87.1	4.02	72.4%	18.6%	18.5%	0.1%	4.1%	0.483	-0.042
75	Jon Lester	74	-1	74.3%	100.0	2.25	70.4%	19.3%	19.3%	0.0%	8.5%	0.479	-0.125
76	Danny Duffy	77	+1	73.9%	94.2	4.94	76.3%	21.7%	19.8%	1.9%	11.0%	0.523	-0.063
77	Derek Holland	75	-2	73.9%	88.2	4.36	71.2%	20.2%	21.9%	-1.8%	9.8%	0.489	-0.042
78	Mike Minor	[UR]	[N/A]	73.0%	85.1	4.64	75.8%	20.6%	19.8%	0.8%	5.4%	0.532	-0.066
79	Sal Romano	81	+2	71.5%	90.0	5.3	65.7%	16.5%	16.8%	-0.3%	9.5%	0.485	-0.017
80	Jason Hammel	83	+3	70.7%	100.1	5.56	73.8%	18.5%	14.5%	4.0%	6.6%	0.55	-0.084
81	Ian Kennedy	79	-2	70.4%	91.2	5.11	69.5%	17.6%	20.9%	-3.3%	8.2%	0.525	-0.047
82	Chris Stratton	80	-2	70.2%	91.0	4.45	66.7%	17.8%	18.1%	-0.3%	9.0%	0.508	-0.08
83	Mike Leake	87	+4	70.1%	107.2	4.01	71.0%	16.6%	14.9%	1.7%	5.4%	0.539	-0.106
84	Lucas Giolito	82	-2	69.4%	84.2	6.59	63.0%	17.7%	13.2%	4.5%	13.2%	0.495	-0.046
85	Chad Kuhl	84	-1	69.0%	85.0	4.55	69.8%	20.5%	21.7%	-1.2%	8.9%	0.546	-0.083
86	Andrew Cashner	85	-1	68.9%	88.1	4.48	62.2%	15.9%	18.2%	-2.4%	10.2%	0.496	0
87	Daniel Mengden	86	-1	68.8%	90.2	4.47	68.5%	16.7%	14.5%	2.2%	5.0%	0.54	-0.097
88	Bartolo Colon	88	0	62.4%	87.2	4.93	60.1%	11.7%	13.5%	-1.9%	4.1%	0.569	-0.049

A couple minor changes have been made in the table since last time:

1.  Added IP, by request
2.  Changed “Predicted K%” to “xK%” (to save space)
3.  Dropped the word “Pitcher” from Pitcher Score, now it’s just “Score” (also to save space)

For Reference:

1.  “PD Score” is short for plate discipline score, a combined metric of strikeout ability weighted as:  3 points O-Swing%, 3 points Contact%, 3 points SwStr%, 1 point F-Strike%.
2.  “Score” is a combined metric weighted equally between PD Score and xSLG.
3.  For both luck indication columns (xK%-K% and SLG-xSLG) positive numbers indicate bad luck so far (likely to regress positively) while negative numbers indicate good luck so far (likely to regress negatively).  A higher SLG value is bad for pitchers, and I wanted it to be easy to remember: Positive Numbers = Good Outlook.
4.  IP, ERA, K%, BB%, and SLG are not included in the calculations, these are only included in the table for reference.
5.  For any newcomers, to understand the concepts behind these numbers I would recommend reading my introduction piece.

 

#19 CC Sabathia (SP, New York Yankees)

Sabathia makes a cannonball splash onto the qualified leaderboard, slotting right into the top 20. I wouldn’t want him devouring everything at my BBQ, but I DEFINITELY wouldn’t mind this old workhorse on my fantasy team. In a truly shocking development, Sabathia has fully re-invented himself as a “crafty lefty,” a far cry from the fire-breathing behemoth he once was, but effective nonetheless. He is pitching exceptionally well, and only three qualified pitchers have more of a disparity between their K% and xK% (22.3% vs. 28.8%). An uptick in strikeouts could be on the way, and the big man should continue to rack up wins all summer with backing from a killer offense and one of baseball’s most lethal bullpens. A real Yankee Doodle Dandy, if you will.

#26 Luis Castillo (SP, Cincinnati Reds)

Castillo’s season has been kind of a melted poopsicle so far, turning in sub-par outing after sub-par outing with plenty offensive “fireworks” coming from opposing lineups. He continues to show well by plate discipline metrics, slotting in at number 26 and featuring the largest disparity between his K% and xK% of all qualified pitchers (xK-K% of +6.5%, indicating poor strikeout luck.) His most recent start was one of his best this year (6+ shutout innings against the admittedly lowly ChiSox) and I still retain optimism about his second half. I am curious to see how he’ll fare against Chicago’s superior team this Sunday.

#33 Jameson Taillon (SP, Pittsburgh Pirates)

Taillon has been pretty frustrating this year, but I am encouraged by his placement on this list in the 30s. He’s pitching reasonably well, and has the look of someone who’s been getting a tad unlucky. If you bail on him now, you might be left feeling like the last one to hop into the pool later on in the season. OK, that reference felt forced. But forced references are part of the human experience, no? WELCOME TO EARTH.

Look at this table showing Taillon’s xStats vs. performance so far:

	Avg	OBP	SLG	BABIP	BACON
x	.232	.290	.376	.280	.307
Actual	.243	.325	.389	.293	.321

Taillon’s strong PD metrics and good batted ball profile (generating GBs, DBs, at a rate greater than league average and also suppressing drives at a rate better than league average) make him a sneaky trade target for your second half run. Finish spiking that watermelon and make your league’s owner an offer!

 

And now, for those injured studs and plucky try-hards, here is the data for the non-qualified SP (10 IP minimum):

Name	Team	SCORE	IP	ERA	PD Score	xK%	K%	xK-K%	BB%	xSLG	SLG-xSLG
Matt Strahm	Padres	104.8%	13.1	1.35	103.1%	31.1%	35.3%	-4.2%	5.9%	0.290	-0.061
Freddy Peralta	Brewers	100.3%	27.2	2.28	95.6%	30.0%	37.7%	-7.8%	11.3%	0.300	-0.098
Noah Syndergaard	Mets	98.8%	64.2	3.06	99.1%	30.6%	28.3%	2.3%	4.8%	0.343	0.021
Shohei Ohtani	Angels	96.9%	49.1	3.10	99.1%	34.0%	30.5%	3.5%	10.0%	0.368	-0.048
Jonathan Loaisiga	Yankees	95.4%	18.0	3.00	92.0%	26.4%	28.4%	-2.1%	10.8%	0.342	-0.009
Ryan Borucki	Blue Jays	94.1%	13.0	2.77	78.9%	20.3%	20.8%	-0.6%	7.6%	0.271	0.056
Max Fried	Braves	94.1%	11.2	0.77	83.1%	28.3%	36.2%	-7.9%	14.9%	0.300	-0.069
Felix Pena	Angels	93.0%	14.1	2.51	97.2%	30.7%	27.4%	3.3%	8.1%	0.408	-0.051
Kenta Maeda	Dodgers	91.8%	74.0	3.41	93.1%	28.3%	27.7%	0.6%	9.2%	0.396	-0.021
Ross Stripling	Dodgers	91.7%	68.0	2.65	83.9%	22.8%	28.9%	-6.2%	2.6%	0.337	0.068
Shane Bieber	Indians	91.3%	24.1	2.22	88.7%	26.8%	26.2%	0.6%	3.9%	0.374	0.038
Robbie Ray	Diamondbacks	90.7%	38.2	4.89	95.9%	30.1%	34.3%	-4.2%	11.8%	0.430	0.005
Ryne Stanek	Rays	90.1%	12.2	1.42	90.3%	27.7%	30.6%	-2.9%	12.2%	0.401	-0.238
Johnny Cueto	Giants	89.8%	32.0	0.84	76.2%	22.3%	22.2%	0.0%	5.1%	0.311	-0.105
Jack Flaherty	Cardinals	89.6%	61.2	2.92	84.8%	26.6%	29.1%	-2.6%	7.2%	0.371	-0.01
Masahiro Tanaka	Yankees	89.5%	72.2	4.58	98.1%	28.8%	24.8%	4.0%	6.5%	0.460	-0.019
Trevor Cahill	Athletics	89.1%	48.2	2.77	92.2%	28.5%	25.0%	3.5%	5.9%	0.427	-0.074
Walker Buehler	Dodgers	88.8%	51.1	2.63	72.4%	19.1%	26.7%	-7.6%	5.5%	0.298	-0.025
Carlos Martinez	Cardinals	88.6%	78.2	3.20	76.8%	21.2%	22.8%	-1.7%	12.8%	0.331	-0.021
Austin Bibens-Dirkx	Rangers	87.5%	22.2	3.57	87.0%	22.7%	17.5%	5.2%	6.2%	0.413	-0.038
Jordan Montgomery	Yankees	87.5%	27.1	3.62	79.9%	21.5%	19.8%	1.7%	10.3%	0.366	-0.01
Hyun-Jin Ryu	Dodgers	87.1%	29.2	2.12	79.3%	24.8%	31.3%	-6.5%	8.7%	0.367	-0.059
Edwin Jackson	Athletics	87.1%	12.2	2.13	74.7%	20.0%	27.7%	-7.8%	0.0%	0.337	0.019
Mike Montgomery	Cubs	86.8%	40.2	2.43	83.8%	22.7%	18.2%	4.5%	7.3%	0.401	-0.088
Brad Keller	Royals	86.4%	33.2	2.14	73.9%	19.9%	14.8%	5.1%	8.2%	0.340	-0.072
Garrett Richards	Angels	86.3%	68.1	3.42	84.0%	25.8%	26.8%	-1.0%	11.0%	0.410	-0.05
Joe Musgrove	Pirates	86.1%	40.1	3.79	79.1%	20.8%	20.3%	0.4%	6.2%	0.379	0.019
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	85.4%	57.0	2.84	82.4%	23.1%	27.2%	-4.2%	5.2%	0.410	-0.019
John Gant	Cardinals	85.4%	27.1	4.61	80.6%	22.9%	21.9%	1.0%	10.5%	0.398	-0.088
Zach Eflin	Phillies	84.8%	56.2	3.02	78.5%	22.1%	24.5%	-2.4%	6.0%	0.393	-0.03
Wilmer Font	Rays	84.5%	21.0	1.71	70.7%	20.5%	22.0%	-1.6%	9.8%	0.345	-0.075
Sam Gaviglio	Blue Jays	84.4%	43.1	4.15	82.3%	22.1%	21.6%	0.5%	7.2%	0.424	0.018
Seth Lugo	Mets	83.9%	23.0	3.52	77.3%	21.6%	26.5%	-4.9%	5.9%	0.397	-0.003
Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	83.5%	80.2	3.46	85.1%	24.5%	29.1%	-4.6%	5.8%	0.454	-0.055
Caleb Smith	Marlins	83.3%	77.1	4.19	82.9%	24.3%	27.0%	-2.7%	10.1%	0.442	-0.054
Anibal Sanchez	Braves	83.1%	50.0	3.06	76.1%	20.1%	22.7%	-2.7%	7.4%	0.400	0.001
Chris Archer	Rays	83.0%	76.1	4.24	86.4%	26.4%	23.7%	2.7%	8.1%	0.469	-0.05
Yu Darvish	Cubs	82.7%	40.0	4.95	78.2%	24.1%	27.2%	-3.2%	11.7%	0.418	0.007
Dereck Rodriguez	Giants	82.0%	33.2	3.21	75.7%	20.3%	20.1%	0.1%	5.6%	0.411	-0.009
Madison Bumgarner	Giants	81.8%	38.1	2.58	73.7%	18.0%	18.9%	-0.9%	7.6%	0.400	-0.039
Andrew Heaney	Angels	81.8%	82.0	3.95	81.5%	23.1%	22.3%	0.7%	7.0%	0.453	-0.039
Fernando Romero	Twins	81.0%	51.1	4.38	79.0%	22.8%	19.6%	3.2%	8.5%	0.446	-0.037
Nick Kingham	Pirates	80.5%	38.1	4.70	83.0%	24.1%	22.4%	1.7%	6.1%	0.480	-0.033
Hector Velazquez	Red Sox	80.0%	10.2	2.53	91.4%	23.4%	22.7%	0.6%	4.6%	0.543	-0.091
Nick Tropeano	Angels	79.8%	54.0	4.83	83.7%	25.5%	19.6%	5.9%	8.9%	0.494	-0.019
Mike Soroka	Braves	79.8%	25.2	3.51	78.7%	22.0%	18.6%	3.4%	6.2%	0.461	-0.048
Nathan Eovaldi	Rays	79.7%	41.1	3.92	79.3%	19.5%	21.9%	-2.4%	3.8%	0.466	-0.032
Junior Guerra	Brewers	79.7%	82.2	3.05	74.9%	21.3%	23.3%	-2.1%	9.0%	0.437	-0.064
Wade LeBlanc	Mariners	79.7%	58.1	3.09	79.7%	19.3%	18.6%	0.7%	5.1%	0.469	-0.078
Jordan Zimmermann	Tigers	79.2%	48.1	3.91	78.3%	20.0%	22.6%	-2.6%	5.0%	0.466	-0.07
Jordan Lyles	Padres	78.8%	47.0	4.79	72.6%	17.9%	19.9%	-2.1%	5.5%	0.433	0.051
Trevor Richards	Marlins	78.8%	48.0	5.06	70.9%	19.0%	20.5%	-1.6%	10.5%	0.422	-0.004
Jeremy Hellickson	Nationals	78.7%	48.0	2.63	75.2%	20.2%	20.3%	-0.1%	4.3%	0.452	-0.049
Tyler Chatwood	Cubs	78.7%	73.1	4.54	67.9%	19.9%	20.6%	-0.7%	19.4%	0.404	-0.059
Yonny Chirinos	Rays	78.3%	22.2	4.37	75.9%	20.1%	21.0%	-0.9%	8.0%	0.462	-0.043
Ryan Yarbrough	Rays	78.3%	20.2	5.23	70.7%	18.4%	19.1%	-0.7%	6.7%	0.427	-0.002
Joey Lucchesi	Padres	78.3%	58.0	3.26	73.9%	22.0%	25.2%	-3.2%	9.7%	0.449	-0.041
Blaine Hardy	Tigers	78.1%	43.2	3.71	70.1%	17.1%	16.6%	0.5%	5.5%	0.426	0.005
Aaron Sanchez	Blue Jays	77.9%	79.2	4.52	76.6%	22.5%	18.7%	3.8%	12.6%	0.472	-0.085
Carlos Rodon	White Sox	77.7%	29.2	4.55	72.1%	18.4%	17.3%	1.1%	7.1%	0.445	-0.033
Anthony DeSclafani	Reds	77.4%	28.1	4.45	66.7%	16.9%	20.3%	-3.5%	7.6%	0.413	0.049
Chris Bassitt	Athletics	76.8%	22.1	2.82	64.4%	13.7%	18.4%	-4.7%	8.2%	0.406	-0.133
Francisco Liriano	Tigers	76.7%	67.2	3.99	78.7%	23.3%	18.7%	4.6%	13.0%	0.502	-0.128
Jaime Barria	Angels	75.1%	55.2	3.40	82.6%	23.8%	20.0%	3.8%	7.0%	0.549	-0.12
Clay Buchholz	Diamondbacks	74.9%	38.2	2.56	74.6%	18.9%	20.3%	-1.4%	4.6%	0.499	-0.126
Matt Harvey	Reds	73.8%	74.2	4.46	66.8%	17.5%	18.3%	-0.8%	5.1%	0.461	-0.035
Andrew Suarez	Giants	73.6%	71.0	4.18	66.5%	15.7%	22.6%	-7.0%	5.1%	0.462	-0.027
Andrew Triggs	Athletics	73.0%	41.1	5.23	75.9%	21.4%	23.6%	-2.3%	9.9%	0.533	-0.12
Adam Wainwright	Cardinals	72.9%	18.0	4.00	55.9%	14.0%	17.1%	-3.1%	15.9%	0.400	0.035
Steven Wright	Red Sox	72.7%	24.0	4.13	67.0%	19.0%	16.8%	2.2%	9.9%	0.478	-0.122
Brandon McCarthy	Braves	72.6%	78.2	4.92	65.9%	15.7%	19.2%	-3.5%	6.2%	0.471	0.027
Frankie Montas	Athletics	72.4%	42.1	3.83	62.8%	16.3%	15.2%	1.1%	7.1%	0.453	-0.01
Dylan Covey	White Sox	72.4%	46.2	4.82	63.4%	15.9%	17.1%	-1.2%	10.9%	0.457	-0.054
Zach Davies	Brewers	72.3%	43.0	5.23	69.1%	18.7%	16.3%	2.4%	9.0%	0.497	-0.003
Eric Lauer	Padres	72.2%	62.0	5.08	63.5%	16.5%	18.8%	-2.4%	9.4%	0.461	0.039
Dan Straily	Marlins	70.9%	59.1	4.70	77.2%	22.3%	20.1%	2.2%	11.2%	0.569	-0.11
Ty Blach	Giants	70.9%	60.2	4.90	60.7%	14.7%	11.1%	3.6%	8.5%	0.460	-0.047
Jake Faria	Rays	70.4%	47.2	5.48	68.1%	19.0%	18.2%	0.7%	10.8%	0.516	-0.093
Elieser Hernandez	Marlins	69.6%	22.0	4.50	71.6%	21.2%	18.7%	2.5%	5.5%	0.549	0.011
Rich Hill	Dodgers	69.5%	42.1	4.68	66.8%	16.7%	24.3%	-7.6%	8.5%	0.519	-0.034
Matt Wisler	Braves	68.7%	17.1	3.63	73.6%	20.7%	18.6%	2.1%	7.1%	0.575	-0.16
Adam Plutko	Indians	68.2%	34.2	4.67	71.6%	17.3%	16.9%	0.4%	6.3%	0.568	-0.034
Brian Johnson	Red Sox	67.5%	10.0	1.80	55.7%	13.8%	17.1%	-3.3%	7.3%	0.471	-0.076
Doug Fister	Rangers	66.4%	66.0	4.50	55.9%	11.8%	13.8%	-2.0%	6.6%	0.487	-0.031
Daniel Gossett	Athletics	64.9%	24.1	5.18	66.2%	15.5%	11.8%	3.7%	7.8%	0.576	-0.081
Taijuan Walker	Diamondbacks	62.7%	13.0	3.46	57.6%	15.1%	16.1%	-1.1%	8.9%	0.548	-0.156
Jarlin Garcia	Marlins	61.0%	33.0	3.55	65.1%	18.0%	16.7%	1.3%	9.9%	0.620	-0.222
Matt Koch	Diamondbacks	56.9%	69.2	4.52	60.7%	13.5%	12.1%	1.4%	5.9%	0.646	-0.14
Lance Lynn	Twins	84.7%	80.1	5.49	78.8%	22.7%	22.2%	0.5%	13.5%	0.396	0.021
Paul Blackburn	Athletics	81.3%	23.2	6.46	73.0%	18.2%	16.2%	2.0%	5.1%	0.402	0.027
Yovani Gallardo	Rangers	77.8%	17.2	6.11	67.2%	15.7%	18.9%	-3.2%	8.1%	0.410	0.016
Wei-Yin Chen	Marlins	78.9%	61.2	5.55	69.9%	17.9%	16.7%	1.2%	9.1%	0.414	0.069
Domingo German	Yankees	94.9%	49.0	5.88	102.1%	31.8%	27.1%	4.7%	6.8%	0.416	0.044
Caleb Ferguson	Dodgers	80.9%	10.2	7.59	78.9%	26.7%	25.0%	1.7%	12.5%	0.447	-0.047
Luis Perdomo	Padres	74.4%	14.0	8.36	68.5%	21.2%	22.1%	-0.9%	11.7%	0.465	0.058
Marcus Stroman	Blue Jays	77.2%	49.1	6.02	75.3%	21.7%	18.6%	3.1%	8.6%	0.473	-0.054
Drew Pomeranz	Red Sox	72.1%	37.0	6.81	65.2%	16.7%	20.8%	-4.2%	12.1%	0.473	0.07
Brandon Woodruff	Brewers	72.2%	15.2	6.32	65.8%	19.2%	18.1%	1.1%	12.5%	0.476	-0.083
Dillon Peters	Marlins	70.0%	24.2	5.84	62.0%	16.3%	14.4%	1.9%	11.7%	0.480	-0.011
David Hess	Orioles	72.7%	47.0	5.94	69.3%	16.7%	12.4%	4.3%	9.1%	0.492	0.016
Jaime Garcia	Blue Jays	71.0%	61.1	6.16	68.1%	19.0%	19.9%	-1.0%	11.0%	0.508	0.004
Jason Vargas	Mets	77.9%	37.2	8.60	82.2%	22.9%	17.8%	5.1%	7.8%	0.509	0.104
Alex Cobb	Orioles	68.1%	74.2	6.75	63.0%	14.8%	14.6%	0.2%	6.1%	0.512	0.054
Brandon Finnegan	Reds	68.0%	20.2	7.40	63.0%	16.0%	13.6%	2.4%	14.6%	0.513	0.04
Matt Moore	Rangers	74.1%	55.0	8.02	75.2%	20.1%	14.7%	5.4%	9.3%	0.513	0.056
Ben Lively	Phillies	67.2%	23.2	6.85	62.8%	17.9%	19.1%	-1.3%	8.7%	0.522	0.023
Bryan Mitchell	Padres	59.3%	32.0	6.47	47.1%	11.8%	10.4%	1.4%	16.9%	0.523	-0.027
Jeff Samardzija	Giants	69.9%	35.2	6.56	68.8%	17.7%	15.7%	2.0%	13.9%	0.527	-0.084
Eric Skoglund	Royals	69.1%	49.2	6.70	70.3%	17.3%	18.0%	-0.7%	6.5%	0.548	-0.018
Kendall Graveman	Athletics	67.0%	34.1	7.60	67.6%	17.1%	17.1%	0.0%	8.2%	0.557	-0.015
Erick Fedde	Nationals	68.0%	27.0	6.00	70.3%	18.7%	16.4%	2.3%	7.8%	0.562	-0.005
Joe Biagini	Blue Jays	64.9%	18.2	7.71	65.9%	16.7%	14.4%	2.3%	10.0%	0.574	-0.08
Brett Anderson	Athletics	64.9%	15.1	7.63	67.1%	18.0%	11.1%	6.9%	8.3%	0.582	0.009
John Lamb	Angels	66.7%	10.0	7.20	72.3%	17.8%	22.0%	-4.3%	8.0%	0.593	0.124
Hector Santiago	White Sox	61.1%	32.1	6.12	62.0%	16.5%	15.9%	0.6%	15.2%	0.598	-0.027
Homer Bailey	Reds	62.1%	62.0	6.68	64.2%	15.8%	13.0%	2.8%	8.2%	0.600	-0.036
Martin Perez	Rangers	55.1%	22.1	9.67	51.8%	11.6%	10.9%	0.6%	10.1%	0.610	0.06
Steven Brault	Pirates	63.8%	26.0	5.54	69.2%	20.0%	13.4%	6.6%	12.5%	0.611	-0.213
Ryan Carpenter	Tigers	57.4%	12.0	6.75	58.5%	14.9%	10.7%	4.2%	3.6%	0.624	-0.047
Carson Fulmer	White Sox	55.3%	31.0	8.13	56.5%	14.6%	16.6%	-2.1%	15.3%	0.640	-0.136
Chris Tillman	Orioles	51.6%	26.2	10.46	49.4%	11.9%	9.5%	2.4%	12.4%	0.641	0.011
Miguel Gonzalez	White Sox	56.8%	12.1	12.41	66.3%	15.5%	7.6%	7.9%	9.1%	0.684	0.099
Josh Tomlin	Indians	55.9%	30.0	8.10	73.8%	19.1%	12.9%	6.2%	3.6%	0.746	-0.019

 

Marcus Stroman (SP, Toronto Blue Jays)

Stroman has been a solid fantasy #2-3 for a few years, but his season so far has been uglier than your dad’s Tommy Bahama shirt. And that was BEFORE it got accidentally covered in barbecue sauce. Astute owners should recognize this as a buying opportunity, however, and he may even be sitting on your league’s wire. All of Stroman’s season long stats are going to look pretty awful still, but his two recent starts off the DL (1-0, 12.0 IP, 9k, 1 ER allowed against LAA and DET) have me very interested in him heading into the All-Star break. I think he has the potential to be a huge difference maker if he’s back to being healthy, as he appears to be.

Zach Eflin (SP, Philadelphia Phillies)

Zach Eflin has been unstoppable lately, like Uncle Sam coming for your taxes. He’s really benefited from a big uptick in strikeouts, currently sitting at a 24.6% rate which is near double what he featured in the past two years. He’s seen a bump in velocity, as highlighted by our very own King and Tyrant Nick Pollack over on Rotographs back in May, and it seems to have helped as his fastball has accrued a pVal of 4.3 so far after being a mediocre offering in previous seasons. His current score of 84.8% would place him in the top 30s of qualifiers. I’m thinking he looks pretty legit- see if you can pry him away from a league-mate who doesn’t fully believe.

Alex Cobb (SP, Baltimore Orioles)

Corn on the cob is traditionally consumed on the 4th of July.

 

And there we have it! Stay safe, drink up, and we’ll see ya next time.