Weekly SP Metrics Update – A Very Patriotic Edition Indeed

Your weekly SP Plate Discpline metrics update.

(Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire)

Happy Fourth, everybody! I’d like to give a big shout-out to the illustrious Chaz Steinberg, the normal curator of this column who had to take a break this week in his ongoing quest to beat Joey Chestnutt in the annual Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. He’s currently stuffing himself and will be back next week. In the meantime, y’all are stuck with me. Crack that beer, flip those burgers, and kiss the cook – it’s time to dive into this week’s leaderboard. I’ll lay out the numbers and then offer some quick hits and musings on some guys that are currently interesting to me, whether they be making me salivate or pull my hair out. All data is current through Monday’s games (7/2/18.) First, the qualifiers:

 

RANKNamePrev RankDiffSCOREIPERAPD ScorexK%K%xK-K%BB%xSLGSLG-xSLG
1Max Scherzer10104.1%120.22.16108.7%34.3%36.9%-2.7%6.4%0.337-0.025
2Chris Sale3+1103.9%116.02.41106.0%32.9%36.1%-3.2%6.4%0.321-0.023
3Jacob deGrom2-1102.8%107.11.84103.1%31.0%31.5%-0.5%6.6%0.316-0.024
4Patrick Corbin4096.8%106.03.14101.7%31.2%32.0%-0.9%6.7%0.388-0.061
5Trevor Bauer5095.7%113.22.4592.8%28.1%31.6%-3.5%7.7%0.343-0.031
6Charlie Morton7+195.5%102.12.5591.8%28.5%31.5%-3.1%9.7%0.338-0.01
7Justin Verlander6-195.4%118.22.1289.0%25.9%31.2%-5.3%5.2%0.322-0.008
8Aaron Nola8093.0%109.02.4884.9%24.0%25.2%-1.3%7.3%0.326-0.032
9Blake Snell12+392.6%108.22.2492.3%29.2%28.6%0.6%9.5%0.381-0.062
10Luis Severino11+192.6%118.11.9890.6%26.6%30.1%-3.6%6.3%0.37-0.088
11Jon Gray9-292.0%92.05.7791.1%28.8%28.9%-0.1%7.0%0.380.075
12James Paxton17+591.3%111.23.3992.7%27.5%32.4%-5.0%7.2%0.4-0.04
13Gerrit Cole10-391.3%111.22.590.1%27.5%35.0%-7.6%8.4%0.383-0.071
14Lance McCullers Jr.16+291.3%101.13.5591.2%27.8%25.7%2.1%9.2%0.391-0.034
15Carlos Carrasco13-290.6%91.14.2494.4%27.4%25.6%1.8%5.9%0.422-0.031
16Jose Berrios14-289.4%107.13.5287.5%24.4%25.9%-1.5%5.6%0.392-0.029
17Sean Newcomb18+188.7%93.02.7178.0%22.4%23.8%-1.4%10.6%0.337-0.016
18Mike Foltynewicz27+988.3%89.02.0277.6%23.0%29.5%-6.5%11.0%0.34-0.041
19CC Sabathia[UR][N/A]88.2%83.13.0282.1%22.3%18.5%3.8%5.9%0.3710.023
20Tyler Skaggs22+288.0%92.02.6485.6%24.5%26.4%-1.9%7.1%0.397-0.029
21Vince Velasquez19-288.0%88.14.6982.4%25.1%28.5%-3.5%9.1%0.3760.049
22Tyler Anderson21-187.8%93.24.2384.4%24.9%21.7%3.2%7.9%0.3920.054
23Mike Clevinger20-387.5%110.03.1183.9%23.9%22.2%1.7%8.1%0.393-0.037
24Alex Wood28+487.4%93.23.8487.8%23.4%21.8%1.6%4.2%0.42-0.026
25Eduardo Rodriguez15-1087.3%87.24.1183.2%23.4%24.8%-1.4%7.4%0.390.007
26Luis Castillo31+586.9%94.15.5394.4%28.8%22.3%6.5%8.1%0.471-0.006
27Corey Kluber25-286.7%119.12.6483.2%22.6%26.5%-4.0%2.9%0.399-0.047
28Kyle Gibson23-586.5%100.23.5884.1%24.2%22.6%1.6%9.9%0.407-0.042
29Dylan Bundy26-386.0%96.03.7594.5%27.5%27.0%0.5%7.3%0.484-0.044
30Nick Pivetta24-685.7%86.04.7185.2%25.1%28.1%-3.1%7.1%0.4260.004
31Zack Wheeler42+1184.9%88.24.4781.5%22.5%22.6%-0.2%8.4%0.411-0.049
32Matthew Boyd36+484.8%88.14.1875.9%21.8%20.6%1.2%9.5%0.375-0.016
33Jameson Taillon30-384.5%93.14.0577.7%20.9%22.0%-1.1%7.1%0.3920.006
34J.A. Happ34083.7%102.24.0376.4%21.3%26.3%-5.1%6.7%0.393-0.022
35Zack Greinke38+383.5%103.03.4187.9%24.4%25.7%-1.3%4.5%0.473-0.051
36Miles Mikolas33-383.2%103.12.6175.9%17.6%17.5%0.1%3.2%0.396-0.064
37Cole Hamels43+683.2%102.14.0588.5%25.6%23.6%2.0%8.4%0.48-0.023
38Gio Gonzalez46+882.7%90.23.7776.5%21.8%21.8%0.0%10.9%0.407-0.013
39Dallas Keuchel39082.7%102.14.2274.3%18.9%18.1%0.8%6.3%0.3930.025
40German Marquez45+582.1%91.05.1473.5%21.3%23.0%-1.8%8.7%0.3960.063
41Clayton Richard40-182.0%107.04.2976.9%21.3%18.7%2.6%7.4%0.419-0.022
42Rick Porcello32-1081.7%111.03.5772.7%18.4%22.2%-3.9%5.6%0.396-0.025
43Kevin Gausman44+181.5%102.14.0583.8%23.7%20.7%3.0%5.8%0.472-0.007
44Sonny Gray41-381.5%82.25.4476.5%21.9%19.7%2.2%9.7%0.4240.009
45Tyler Mahle55+1081.3%91.23.8380.1%23.1%23.5%-0.4%9.9%0.450.006
46Kyle Freeland49+381.2%105.13.2572.8%19.1%19.5%-0.5%7.7%0.402-0.024
47Brent Suter[UR][N/A]81.2%86.24.6779.6%21.2%19.9%1.3%4.7%0.448-0.009
48Michael Fulmer47-181.1%94.14.280.2%21.3%20.4%0.9%7.7%0.454-0.058
49Tyson Ross37-1281.0%100.03.7875.4%20.4%21.4%-1.1%9.1%0.423-0.032
50Marco Gonzales56+680.7%100.13.7778.8%19.7%21.2%-1.6%4.9%0.449-0.037
51Zack Godley48-380.6%92.15.0781.2%24.5%21.9%2.6%11.9%0.467-0.038
52Jake Odorizzi52080.0%85.24.6281.8%23.6%23.5%0.1%10.4%0.478-0.01
53Jose Urena50-380.0%94.04.474.3%18.7%19.4%-0.7%5.4%0.429-0.04
54Julio Teheran51-379.6%87.24.2178.0%22.7%21.2%1.5%11.3%0.458-0.04
55Jake Arrieta54-179.2%89.03.5466.5%15.5%16.4%-0.9%7.8%0.387-0.006
56Jhoulys Chacin57+178.9%97.03.7170.7%19.7%18.4%1.3%10.4%0.419-0.053
57Tanner Roark59+277.8%98.13.9472.8%19.5%20.3%-0.8%8.7%0.448-0.047
58Steven Matz71+1377.5%83.13.4663.6%18.3%21.7%-3.4%9.1%0.3910.012
59Luke Weaver62+377.3%89.05.1673.5%20.7%20.9%-0.3%8.7%0.459-0.032
60Sean Manaea64+476.8%106.23.3877.3%20.2%17.9%2.3%4.7%0.491-0.123
61David Price53-876.7%96.24.2870.6%18.4%22.9%-4.6%8.2%0.448-0.015
62Jose Quintana61-176.4%85.24.3168.9%18.3%21.5%-3.2%10.7%0.44-0.016
63Michael Wacha68+576.3%84.13.272.9%21.0%20.0%0.9%10.1%0.468-0.124
64Mike Fiers[UR][N/A]75.8%92.23.7972.2%18.4%17.4%1.0%5.1%0.471-0.018
65Chad Bettis67+275.7%95.15.171.0%19.4%16.9%2.5%9.3%0.464-0.01
66Chase Anderson76+1075.7%88.14.1869.4%18.7%19.1%-0.5%9.8%0.454-0.055
67Reynaldo Lopez69+275.7%100.13.6869.4%19.1%17.1%2.0%9.8%0.454-0.065
68Kyle Hendricks58-1075.6%92.04.2172.9%19.2%18.3%0.9%7.6%0.478-0.049
69Jakob Junis63-675.6%101.25.1375.5%19.8%20.9%-1.2%6.4%0.495-0.008
70Felix Hernandez73+375.5%100.15.1172.4%18.8%19.4%-0.7%8.2%0.476-0.046
71James Shields65-675.5%113.04.0672.5%19.7%16.1%3.6%9.1%0.477-0.108
72Marco Estrada66-675.3%89.14.5375.9%20.6%18.5%2.1%6.4%0.502-0.015
73Trevor Williams72-175.2%91.24.2267.9%17.3%17.9%-0.6%7.9%0.45-0.048
74Ivan Nova70-475.0%87.14.0272.4%18.6%18.5%0.1%4.1%0.483-0.042
75Jon Lester74-174.3%100.02.2570.4%19.3%19.3%0.0%8.5%0.479-0.125
76Danny Duffy77+173.9%94.24.9476.3%21.7%19.8%1.9%11.0%0.523-0.063
77Derek Holland75-273.9%88.24.3671.2%20.2%21.9%-1.8%9.8%0.489-0.042
78Mike Minor[UR][N/A]73.0%85.14.6475.8%20.6%19.8%0.8%5.4%0.532-0.066
79Sal Romano81+271.5%90.05.365.7%16.5%16.8%-0.3%9.5%0.485-0.017
80Jason Hammel83+370.7%100.15.5673.8%18.5%14.5%4.0%6.6%0.55-0.084
81Ian Kennedy79-270.4%91.25.1169.5%17.6%20.9%-3.3%8.2%0.525-0.047
82Chris Stratton80-270.2%91.04.4566.7%17.8%18.1%-0.3%9.0%0.508-0.08
83Mike Leake87+470.1%107.24.0171.0%16.6%14.9%1.7%5.4%0.539-0.106
84Lucas Giolito82-269.4%84.26.5963.0%17.7%13.2%4.5%13.2%0.495-0.046
85Chad Kuhl84-169.0%85.04.5569.8%20.5%21.7%-1.2%8.9%0.546-0.083
86Andrew Cashner85-168.9%88.14.4862.2%15.9%18.2%-2.4%10.2%0.4960
87Daniel Mengden86-168.8%90.24.4768.5%16.7%14.5%2.2%5.0%0.54-0.097
88Bartolo Colon88062.4%87.24.9360.1%11.7%13.5%-1.9%4.1%0.569-0.049

A couple minor changes have been made in the table since last time:

  1.  Added IP, by request
  2.  Changed “Predicted K%” to “xK%” (to save space)
  3.  Dropped the word “Pitcher” from Pitcher Score, now it’s just “Score” (also to save space)

For Reference:

  1.  “PD Score” is short for plate discipline score, a combined metric of strikeout ability weighted as:  3 points O-Swing%, 3 points Contact%, 3 points SwStr%, 1 point F-Strike%.
  2.  “Score” is a combined metric weighted equally between PD Score and xSLG.
  3.  For both luck indication columns (xK%-K% and SLG-xSLG) positive numbers indicate bad luck so far (likely to regress positively) while negative numbers indicate good luck so far (likely to regress negatively).  A higher SLG value is bad for pitchers, and I wanted it to be easy to remember: Positive Numbers = Good Outlook.
  4.  IP, ERA, K%, BB%, and SLG are not included in the calculations, these are only included in the table for reference.
  5.  For any newcomers, to understand the concepts behind these numbers I would recommend reading my introduction piece.

 

#19 CC Sabathia (SP, New York Yankees)

Sabathia makes a cannonball splash onto the qualified leaderboard, slotting right into the top 20. I wouldn’t want him devouring everything at my BBQ, but I DEFINITELY wouldn’t mind this old workhorse on my fantasy team. In a truly shocking development, Sabathia has fully re-invented himself as a “crafty lefty,” a far cry from the fire-breathing behemoth he once was, but effective nonetheless. He is pitching exceptionally well, and only three qualified pitchers have more of a disparity between their K% and xK% (22.3% vs. 28.8%). An uptick in strikeouts could be on the way, and the big man should continue to rack up wins all summer with backing from a killer offense and one of baseball’s most lethal bullpens. A real Yankee Doodle Dandy, if you will.

#26 Luis Castillo (SP, Cincinnati Reds)

Castillo’s season has been kind of a melted poopsicle so far, turning in sub-par outing after sub-par outing with plenty offensive “fireworks” coming from opposing lineups. He continues to show well by plate discipline metrics, slotting in at number 26 and featuring the largest disparity between his K% and xK% of all qualified pitchers (xK-K% of +6.5%, indicating poor strikeout luck.) His most recent start was one of his best this year (6+ shutout innings against the admittedly lowly ChiSox) and I still retain optimism about his second half. I am curious to see how he’ll fare against Chicago’s superior team this Sunday.

#33 Jameson Taillon (SP, Pittsburgh Pirates)

Taillon has been pretty frustrating this year, but I am encouraged by his placement on this list in the 30s. He’s pitching reasonably well, and has the look of someone who’s been getting a tad unlucky. If you bail on him now, you might be left feeling like the last one to hop into the pool later on in the season. OK, that reference felt forced. But forced references are part of the human experience, no? WELCOME TO EARTH.

Look at this table showing Taillon’s xStats vs. performance so far:

AvgOBPSLGBABIPBACON
x.232.290.376.280.307
Actual.243.325.389.293.321

Taillon’s strong PD metrics and good batted ball profile (generating GBs, DBs, at a rate greater than league average and also suppressing drives at a rate better than league average) make him a sneaky trade target for your second half run. Finish spiking that watermelon and make your league’s owner an offer!

 

And now, for those injured studs and plucky try-hards, here is the data for the non-qualified SP (10 IP minimum):

NameTeamSCOREIPERAPD ScorexK%K%xK-K%BB%xSLGSLG-xSLG
Matt StrahmPadres104.8%13.11.35103.1%31.1%35.3%-4.2%5.9%0.290-0.061
Freddy PeraltaBrewers100.3%27.22.2895.6%30.0%37.7%-7.8%11.3%0.300-0.098
Noah SyndergaardMets98.8%64.23.0699.1%30.6%28.3%2.3%4.8%0.3430.021
Shohei OhtaniAngels96.9%49.13.1099.1%34.0%30.5%3.5%10.0%0.368-0.048
Jonathan LoaisigaYankees95.4%18.03.0092.0%26.4%28.4%-2.1%10.8%0.342-0.009
Ryan BoruckiBlue Jays94.1%13.02.7778.9%20.3%20.8%-0.6%7.6%0.2710.056
Max FriedBraves94.1%11.20.7783.1%28.3%36.2%-7.9%14.9%0.300-0.069
Felix PenaAngels93.0%14.12.5197.2%30.7%27.4%3.3%8.1%0.408-0.051
Kenta MaedaDodgers91.8%74.03.4193.1%28.3%27.7%0.6%9.2%0.396-0.021
Ross StriplingDodgers91.7%68.02.6583.9%22.8%28.9%-6.2%2.6%0.3370.068
Shane BieberIndians91.3%24.12.2288.7%26.8%26.2%0.6%3.9%0.3740.038
Robbie RayDiamondbacks90.7%38.24.8995.9%30.1%34.3%-4.2%11.8%0.4300.005
Ryne StanekRays90.1%12.21.4290.3%27.7%30.6%-2.9%12.2%0.401-0.238
Johnny CuetoGiants89.8%32.00.8476.2%22.3%22.2%0.0%5.1%0.311-0.105
Jack FlahertyCardinals89.6%61.22.9284.8%26.6%29.1%-2.6%7.2%0.371-0.01
Masahiro TanakaYankees89.5%72.24.5898.1%28.8%24.8%4.0%6.5%0.460-0.019
Trevor CahillAthletics89.1%48.22.7792.2%28.5%25.0%3.5%5.9%0.427-0.074
Walker BuehlerDodgers88.8%51.12.6372.4%19.1%26.7%-7.6%5.5%0.298-0.025
Carlos MartinezCardinals88.6%78.23.2076.8%21.2%22.8%-1.7%12.8%0.331-0.021
Austin Bibens-DirkxRangers87.5%22.23.5787.0%22.7%17.5%5.2%6.2%0.413-0.038
Jordan MontgomeryYankees87.5%27.13.6279.9%21.5%19.8%1.7%10.3%0.366-0.01
Hyun-Jin RyuDodgers87.1%29.22.1279.3%24.8%31.3%-6.5%8.7%0.367-0.059
Edwin JacksonAthletics87.1%12.22.1374.7%20.0%27.7%-7.8%0.0%0.3370.019
Mike MontgomeryCubs86.8%40.22.4383.8%22.7%18.2%4.5%7.3%0.401-0.088
Brad KellerRoyals86.4%33.22.1473.9%19.9%14.8%5.1%8.2%0.340-0.072
Garrett RichardsAngels86.3%68.13.4284.0%25.8%26.8%-1.0%11.0%0.410-0.05
Joe MusgrovePirates86.1%40.13.7979.1%20.8%20.3%0.4%6.2%0.3790.019
Clayton KershawDodgers85.4%57.02.8482.4%23.1%27.2%-4.2%5.2%0.410-0.019
John GantCardinals85.4%27.14.6180.6%22.9%21.9%1.0%10.5%0.398-0.088
Zach EflinPhillies84.8%56.23.0278.5%22.1%24.5%-2.4%6.0%0.393-0.03
Wilmer FontRays84.5%21.01.7170.7%20.5%22.0%-1.6%9.8%0.345-0.075
Sam GaviglioBlue Jays84.4%43.14.1582.3%22.1%21.6%0.5%7.2%0.4240.018
Seth LugoMets83.9%23.03.5277.3%21.6%26.5%-4.9%5.9%0.397-0.003
Stephen StrasburgNationals83.5%80.23.4685.1%24.5%29.1%-4.6%5.8%0.454-0.055
Caleb SmithMarlins83.3%77.14.1982.9%24.3%27.0%-2.7%10.1%0.442-0.054
Anibal SanchezBraves83.1%50.03.0676.1%20.1%22.7%-2.7%7.4%0.4000.001
Chris ArcherRays83.0%76.14.2486.4%26.4%23.7%2.7%8.1%0.469-0.05
Yu DarvishCubs82.7%40.04.9578.2%24.1%27.2%-3.2%11.7%0.4180.007
Dereck RodriguezGiants82.0%33.23.2175.7%20.3%20.1%0.1%5.6%0.411-0.009
Madison BumgarnerGiants81.8%38.12.5873.7%18.0%18.9%-0.9%7.6%0.400-0.039
Andrew HeaneyAngels81.8%82.03.9581.5%23.1%22.3%0.7%7.0%0.453-0.039
Fernando RomeroTwins81.0%51.14.3879.0%22.8%19.6%3.2%8.5%0.446-0.037
Nick KinghamPirates80.5%38.14.7083.0%24.1%22.4%1.7%6.1%0.480-0.033
Hector VelazquezRed Sox80.0%10.22.5391.4%23.4%22.7%0.6%4.6%0.543-0.091
Nick TropeanoAngels79.8%54.04.8383.7%25.5%19.6%5.9%8.9%0.494-0.019
Mike SorokaBraves79.8%25.23.5178.7%22.0%18.6%3.4%6.2%0.461-0.048
Nathan EovaldiRays79.7%41.13.9279.3%19.5%21.9%-2.4%3.8%0.466-0.032
Junior GuerraBrewers79.7%82.23.0574.9%21.3%23.3%-2.1%9.0%0.437-0.064
Wade LeBlancMariners79.7%58.13.0979.7%19.3%18.6%0.7%5.1%0.469-0.078
Jordan ZimmermannTigers79.2%48.13.9178.3%20.0%22.6%-2.6%5.0%0.466-0.07
Jordan LylesPadres78.8%47.04.7972.6%17.9%19.9%-2.1%5.5%0.4330.051
Trevor RichardsMarlins78.8%48.05.0670.9%19.0%20.5%-1.6%10.5%0.422-0.004
Jeremy HellicksonNationals78.7%48.02.6375.2%20.2%20.3%-0.1%4.3%0.452-0.049
Tyler ChatwoodCubs78.7%73.14.5467.9%19.9%20.6%-0.7%19.4%0.404-0.059
Yonny ChirinosRays78.3%22.24.3775.9%20.1%21.0%-0.9%8.0%0.462-0.043
Ryan YarbroughRays78.3%20.25.2370.7%18.4%19.1%-0.7%6.7%0.427-0.002
Joey LucchesiPadres78.3%58.03.2673.9%22.0%25.2%-3.2%9.7%0.449-0.041
Blaine HardyTigers78.1%43.23.7170.1%17.1%16.6%0.5%5.5%0.4260.005
Aaron SanchezBlue Jays77.9%79.24.5276.6%22.5%18.7%3.8%12.6%0.472-0.085
Carlos RodonWhite Sox77.7%29.24.5572.1%18.4%17.3%1.1%7.1%0.445-0.033
Anthony DeSclafaniReds77.4%28.14.4566.7%16.9%20.3%-3.5%7.6%0.4130.049
Chris BassittAthletics76.8%22.12.8264.4%13.7%18.4%-4.7%8.2%0.406-0.133
Francisco LirianoTigers76.7%67.23.9978.7%23.3%18.7%4.6%13.0%0.502-0.128
Jaime BarriaAngels75.1%55.23.4082.6%23.8%20.0%3.8%7.0%0.549-0.12
Clay BuchholzDiamondbacks74.9%38.22.5674.6%18.9%20.3%-1.4%4.6%0.499-0.126
Matt HarveyReds73.8%74.24.4666.8%17.5%18.3%-0.8%5.1%0.461-0.035
Andrew SuarezGiants73.6%71.04.1866.5%15.7%22.6%-7.0%5.1%0.462-0.027
Andrew TriggsAthletics73.0%41.15.2375.9%21.4%23.6%-2.3%9.9%0.533-0.12
Adam WainwrightCardinals72.9%18.04.0055.9%14.0%17.1%-3.1%15.9%0.4000.035
Steven WrightRed Sox72.7%24.04.1367.0%19.0%16.8%2.2%9.9%0.478-0.122
Brandon McCarthyBraves72.6%78.24.9265.9%15.7%19.2%-3.5%6.2%0.4710.027
Frankie MontasAthletics72.4%42.13.8362.8%16.3%15.2%1.1%7.1%0.453-0.01
Dylan CoveyWhite Sox72.4%46.24.8263.4%15.9%17.1%-1.2%10.9%0.457-0.054
Zach DaviesBrewers72.3%43.05.2369.1%18.7%16.3%2.4%9.0%0.497-0.003
Eric LauerPadres72.2%62.05.0863.5%16.5%18.8%-2.4%9.4%0.4610.039
Dan StrailyMarlins70.9%59.14.7077.2%22.3%20.1%2.2%11.2%0.569-0.11
Ty BlachGiants70.9%60.24.9060.7%14.7%11.1%3.6%8.5%0.460-0.047
Jake FariaRays70.4%47.25.4868.1%19.0%18.2%0.7%10.8%0.516-0.093
Elieser HernandezMarlins69.6%22.04.5071.6%21.2%18.7%2.5%5.5%0.5490.011
Rich HillDodgers69.5%42.14.6866.8%16.7%24.3%-7.6%8.5%0.519-0.034
Matt WislerBraves68.7%17.13.6373.6%20.7%18.6%2.1%7.1%0.575-0.16
Adam PlutkoIndians68.2%34.24.6771.6%17.3%16.9%0.4%6.3%0.568-0.034
Brian JohnsonRed Sox67.5%10.01.8055.7%13.8%17.1%-3.3%7.3%0.471-0.076
Doug FisterRangers66.4%66.04.5055.9%11.8%13.8%-2.0%6.6%0.487-0.031
Daniel GossettAthletics64.9%24.15.1866.2%15.5%11.8%3.7%7.8%0.576-0.081
Taijuan WalkerDiamondbacks62.7%13.03.4657.6%15.1%16.1%-1.1%8.9%0.548-0.156
Jarlin GarciaMarlins61.0%33.03.5565.1%18.0%16.7%1.3%9.9%0.620-0.222
Matt KochDiamondbacks56.9%69.24.5260.7%13.5%12.1%1.4%5.9%0.646-0.14
Lance LynnTwins84.7%80.15.4978.8%22.7%22.2%0.5%13.5%0.3960.021
Paul BlackburnAthletics81.3%23.26.4673.0%18.2%16.2%2.0%5.1%0.4020.027
Yovani GallardoRangers77.8%17.26.1167.2%15.7%18.9%-3.2%8.1%0.4100.016
Wei-Yin ChenMarlins78.9%61.25.5569.9%17.9%16.7%1.2%9.1%0.4140.069
Domingo GermanYankees94.9%49.05.88102.1%31.8%27.1%4.7%6.8%0.4160.044
Caleb FergusonDodgers80.9%10.27.5978.9%26.7%25.0%1.7%12.5%0.447-0.047
Luis PerdomoPadres74.4%14.08.3668.5%21.2%22.1%-0.9%11.7%0.4650.058
Marcus StromanBlue Jays77.2%49.16.0275.3%21.7%18.6%3.1%8.6%0.473-0.054
Drew PomeranzRed Sox72.1%37.06.8165.2%16.7%20.8%-4.2%12.1%0.4730.07
Brandon WoodruffBrewers72.2%15.26.3265.8%19.2%18.1%1.1%12.5%0.476-0.083
Dillon PetersMarlins70.0%24.25.8462.0%16.3%14.4%1.9%11.7%0.480-0.011
David HessOrioles72.7%47.05.9469.3%16.7%12.4%4.3%9.1%0.4920.016
Jaime GarciaBlue Jays71.0%61.16.1668.1%19.0%19.9%-1.0%11.0%0.5080.004
Jason VargasMets77.9%37.28.6082.2%22.9%17.8%5.1%7.8%0.5090.104
Alex CobbOrioles68.1%74.26.7563.0%14.8%14.6%0.2%6.1%0.5120.054
Brandon FinneganReds68.0%20.27.4063.0%16.0%13.6%2.4%14.6%0.5130.04
Matt MooreRangers74.1%55.08.0275.2%20.1%14.7%5.4%9.3%0.5130.056
Ben LivelyPhillies67.2%23.26.8562.8%17.9%19.1%-1.3%8.7%0.5220.023
Bryan MitchellPadres59.3%32.06.4747.1%11.8%10.4%1.4%16.9%0.523-0.027
Jeff SamardzijaGiants69.9%35.26.5668.8%17.7%15.7%2.0%13.9%0.527-0.084
Eric SkoglundRoyals69.1%49.26.7070.3%17.3%18.0%-0.7%6.5%0.548-0.018
Kendall GravemanAthletics67.0%34.17.6067.6%17.1%17.1%0.0%8.2%0.557-0.015
Erick FeddeNationals68.0%27.06.0070.3%18.7%16.4%2.3%7.8%0.562-0.005
Joe BiaginiBlue Jays64.9%18.27.7165.9%16.7%14.4%2.3%10.0%0.574-0.08
Brett AndersonAthletics64.9%15.17.6367.1%18.0%11.1%6.9%8.3%0.5820.009
John LambAngels66.7%10.07.2072.3%17.8%22.0%-4.3%8.0%0.5930.124
Hector SantiagoWhite Sox61.1%32.16.1262.0%16.5%15.9%0.6%15.2%0.598-0.027
Homer BaileyReds62.1%62.06.6864.2%15.8%13.0%2.8%8.2%0.600-0.036
Martin PerezRangers55.1%22.19.6751.8%11.6%10.9%0.6%10.1%0.6100.06
Steven BraultPirates63.8%26.05.5469.2%20.0%13.4%6.6%12.5%0.611-0.213
Ryan CarpenterTigers57.4%12.06.7558.5%14.9%10.7%4.2%3.6%0.624-0.047
Carson FulmerWhite Sox55.3%31.08.1356.5%14.6%16.6%-2.1%15.3%0.640-0.136
Chris TillmanOrioles51.6%26.210.4649.4%11.9%9.5%2.4%12.4%0.6410.011
Miguel GonzalezWhite Sox56.8%12.112.4166.3%15.5%7.6%7.9%9.1%0.6840.099
Josh TomlinIndians55.9%30.08.1073.8%19.1%12.9%6.2%3.6%0.746-0.019

 

Marcus Stroman (SP, Toronto Blue Jays)

Stroman has been a solid fantasy #2-3 for a few years, but his season so far has been uglier than your dad’s Tommy Bahama shirt. And that was BEFORE it got accidentally covered in barbecue sauce. Astute owners should recognize this as a buying opportunity, however, and he may even be sitting on your league’s wire. All of Stroman’s season long stats are going to look pretty awful still, but his two recent starts off the DL (1-0, 12.0 IP, 9k, 1 ER allowed against LAA and DET) have me very interested in him heading into the All-Star break. I think he has the potential to be a huge difference maker if he’s back to being healthy, as he appears to be.

Zach Eflin (SP, Philadelphia Phillies)

Zach Eflin has been unstoppable lately, like Uncle Sam coming for your taxes. He’s really benefited from a big uptick in strikeouts, currently sitting at a 24.6% rate which is near double what he featured in the past two years. He’s seen a bump in velocity, as highlighted by our very own King and Tyrant Nick Pollack over on Rotographs back in May, and it seems to have helped as his fastball has accrued a pVal of 4.3 so far after being a mediocre offering in previous seasons. His current score of 84.8% would place him in the top 30s of qualifiers. I’m thinking he looks pretty legit- see if you can pry him away from a league-mate who doesn’t fully believe.

Alex Cobb (SP, Baltimore Orioles)

Corn on the cob is traditionally consumed on the 4th of July.

 

And there we have it! Stay safe, drink up, and we’ll see ya next time.

 

 

 

Stephen Honovich

Steve is a contributing writer for Pitcherlist and QBlist. A grizzled fantasy sports veteran, he is still waiting for Rich Harden's Cy Young to come in.

  • Avatar Mr. G says:

    This is a lot to digest. Spent nearly an hour reviewing the introduction and examining the stats. What I took away is that a pitcher like Taillon looks good because of his score and his batted ball profile. Are there any others who stand out as similar trade targets for a team in need of pitching?

    Also, a Mets fan wants my Nimmo and is offering Berrios if I throw in another SP. I can package Nimmo with Tanaka, G. Richards, Heaney, or Nick Pollack’s favorite Nick Pivetta. What’s the best way to use this analysis to decide which SP to unload? Just look at the rankings overall? It’s a H2H categories league, so getting Ks doesn’t help if my pitcher pulls a Jon Gray and annihilates my ERA and WHIP. Berrios seems like a consensus top 20 list for nearly every credible analyst. But this PD ranking would seem to indicate that there’s not a ton of separation between him and some of SPs I would have to package with Nimmo. How would you handle this ?

    And Happy 4th to you all! Love the work you gents do!

    • Avatar Stephen Honovich says:

      I think the best way to go about it is to look at pitchers with nice scores whose numbers and reputation maybe do not line up with how well they are actually pitching. Aside from the aforementioned Sabathia, Taillon, Castillo, Eflin and Stroman, I think it might be easiest to sift through the non-qualifiers. Loaisiga, Musgrove, and Kingham all have nice skillsets and could probably be had on the cheap.

      As far as your trade scenario, you’re absolutely right – a lot of the arms you’d be offering rank similarly to Berrios by this analysis. But this analysis is only one piece of the puzzle, and you need to take team, durability, IPS, etc into account. You can also look at the xK-K% and SLG-xSLG columns to see who may have been lucky/unlucky so far – a positive number indicates some good regression may be on the come. Garrett Richards is negative on both of these columns and has a lengthy injury history- I’m one of the low men on him at PL and I’d have no problem shipping Nimmo and Richards for Berrios.

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