Weekly SP Metrics Update – A Very Patriotic Edition Indeed

(Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire)

Happy Fourth, everybody! I’d like to give a big shout-out to the illustrious Chaz Steinberg, the normal curator of this column who had to take a break this week in his ongoing quest to beat Joey Chestnutt in the annual Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. He’s currently stuffing himself and will be back next week. In the meantime, y’all are stuck with me. Crack that beer, flip those burgers, and kiss the cook – it’s time to dive into this week’s leaderboard. I’ll lay out the numbers and then offer some quick hits and musings on some guys that are currently interesting to me, whether they be making me salivate or pull my hair out. All data is current through Monday’s games (7/2/18.) First, the qualifiers:

 

RANK Name Prev Rank Diff SCORE IP ERA PD Score xK% K% xK-K% BB% xSLG SLG-xSLG
1 Max Scherzer 1 0 104.1% 120.2 2.16 108.7% 34.3% 36.9% -2.7% 6.4% 0.337 -0.025
2 Chris Sale 3 +1 103.9% 116.0 2.41 106.0% 32.9% 36.1% -3.2% 6.4% 0.321 -0.023
3 Jacob deGrom 2 -1 102.8% 107.1 1.84 103.1% 31.0% 31.5% -0.5% 6.6% 0.316 -0.024
4 Patrick Corbin 4 0 96.8% 106.0 3.14 101.7% 31.2% 32.0% -0.9% 6.7% 0.388 -0.061
5 Trevor Bauer 5 0 95.7% 113.2 2.45 92.8% 28.1% 31.6% -3.5% 7.7% 0.343 -0.031
6 Charlie Morton 7 +1 95.5% 102.1 2.55 91.8% 28.5% 31.5% -3.1% 9.7% 0.338 -0.01
7 Justin Verlander 6 -1 95.4% 118.2 2.12 89.0% 25.9% 31.2% -5.3% 5.2% 0.322 -0.008
8 Aaron Nola 8 0 93.0% 109.0 2.48 84.9% 24.0% 25.2% -1.3% 7.3% 0.326 -0.032
9 Blake Snell 12 +3 92.6% 108.2 2.24 92.3% 29.2% 28.6% 0.6% 9.5% 0.381 -0.062
10 Luis Severino 11 +1 92.6% 118.1 1.98 90.6% 26.6% 30.1% -3.6% 6.3% 0.37 -0.088
11 Jon Gray 9 -2 92.0% 92.0 5.77 91.1% 28.8% 28.9% -0.1% 7.0% 0.38 0.075
12 James Paxton 17 +5 91.3% 111.2 3.39 92.7% 27.5% 32.4% -5.0% 7.2% 0.4 -0.04
13 Gerrit Cole 10 -3 91.3% 111.2 2.5 90.1% 27.5% 35.0% -7.6% 8.4% 0.383 -0.071
14 Lance McCullers Jr. 16 +2 91.3% 101.1 3.55 91.2% 27.8% 25.7% 2.1% 9.2% 0.391 -0.034
15 Carlos Carrasco 13 -2 90.6% 91.1 4.24 94.4% 27.4% 25.6% 1.8% 5.9% 0.422 -0.031
16 Jose Berrios 14 -2 89.4% 107.1 3.52 87.5% 24.4% 25.9% -1.5% 5.6% 0.392 -0.029
17 Sean Newcomb 18 +1 88.7% 93.0 2.71 78.0% 22.4% 23.8% -1.4% 10.6% 0.337 -0.016
18 Mike Foltynewicz 27 +9 88.3% 89.0 2.02 77.6% 23.0% 29.5% -6.5% 11.0% 0.34 -0.041
19 CC Sabathia [UR] [N/A] 88.2% 83.1 3.02 82.1% 22.3% 18.5% 3.8% 5.9% 0.371 0.023
20 Tyler Skaggs 22 +2 88.0% 92.0 2.64 85.6% 24.5% 26.4% -1.9% 7.1% 0.397 -0.029
21 Vince Velasquez 19 -2 88.0% 88.1 4.69 82.4% 25.1% 28.5% -3.5% 9.1% 0.376 0.049
22 Tyler Anderson 21 -1 87.8% 93.2 4.23 84.4% 24.9% 21.7% 3.2% 7.9% 0.392 0.054
23 Mike Clevinger 20 -3 87.5% 110.0 3.11 83.9% 23.9% 22.2% 1.7% 8.1% 0.393 -0.037
24 Alex Wood 28 +4 87.4% 93.2 3.84 87.8% 23.4% 21.8% 1.6% 4.2% 0.42 -0.026
25 Eduardo Rodriguez 15 -10 87.3% 87.2 4.11 83.2% 23.4% 24.8% -1.4% 7.4% 0.39 0.007
26 Luis Castillo 31 +5 86.9% 94.1 5.53 94.4% 28.8% 22.3% 6.5% 8.1% 0.471 -0.006
27 Corey Kluber 25 -2 86.7% 119.1 2.64 83.2% 22.6% 26.5% -4.0% 2.9% 0.399 -0.047
28 Kyle Gibson 23 -5 86.5% 100.2 3.58 84.1% 24.2% 22.6% 1.6% 9.9% 0.407 -0.042
29 Dylan Bundy 26 -3 86.0% 96.0 3.75 94.5% 27.5% 27.0% 0.5% 7.3% 0.484 -0.044
30 Nick Pivetta 24 -6 85.7% 86.0 4.71 85.2% 25.1% 28.1% -3.1% 7.1% 0.426 0.004
31 Zack Wheeler 42 +11 84.9% 88.2 4.47 81.5% 22.5% 22.6% -0.2% 8.4% 0.411 -0.049
32 Matthew Boyd 36 +4 84.8% 88.1 4.18 75.9% 21.8% 20.6% 1.2% 9.5% 0.375 -0.016
33 Jameson Taillon 30 -3 84.5% 93.1 4.05 77.7% 20.9% 22.0% -1.1% 7.1% 0.392 0.006
34 J.A. Happ 34 0 83.7% 102.2 4.03 76.4% 21.3% 26.3% -5.1% 6.7% 0.393 -0.022
35 Zack Greinke 38 +3 83.5% 103.0 3.41 87.9% 24.4% 25.7% -1.3% 4.5% 0.473 -0.051
36 Miles Mikolas 33 -3 83.2% 103.1 2.61 75.9% 17.6% 17.5% 0.1% 3.2% 0.396 -0.064
37 Cole Hamels 43 +6 83.2% 102.1 4.05 88.5% 25.6% 23.6% 2.0% 8.4% 0.48 -0.023
38 Gio Gonzalez 46 +8 82.7% 90.2 3.77 76.5% 21.8% 21.8% 0.0% 10.9% 0.407 -0.013
39 Dallas Keuchel 39 0 82.7% 102.1 4.22 74.3% 18.9% 18.1% 0.8% 6.3% 0.393 0.025
40 German Marquez 45 +5 82.1% 91.0 5.14 73.5% 21.3% 23.0% -1.8% 8.7% 0.396 0.063
41 Clayton Richard 40 -1 82.0% 107.0 4.29 76.9% 21.3% 18.7% 2.6% 7.4% 0.419 -0.022
42 Rick Porcello 32 -10 81.7% 111.0 3.57 72.7% 18.4% 22.2% -3.9% 5.6% 0.396 -0.025
43 Kevin Gausman 44 +1 81.5% 102.1 4.05 83.8% 23.7% 20.7% 3.0% 5.8% 0.472 -0.007
44 Sonny Gray 41 -3 81.5% 82.2 5.44 76.5% 21.9% 19.7% 2.2% 9.7% 0.424 0.009
45 Tyler Mahle 55 +10 81.3% 91.2 3.83 80.1% 23.1% 23.5% -0.4% 9.9% 0.45 0.006
46 Kyle Freeland 49 +3 81.2% 105.1 3.25 72.8% 19.1% 19.5% -0.5% 7.7% 0.402 -0.024
47 Brent Suter [UR] [N/A] 81.2% 86.2 4.67 79.6% 21.2% 19.9% 1.3% 4.7% 0.448 -0.009
48 Michael Fulmer 47 -1 81.1% 94.1 4.2 80.2% 21.3% 20.4% 0.9% 7.7% 0.454 -0.058
49 Tyson Ross 37 -12 81.0% 100.0 3.78 75.4% 20.4% 21.4% -1.1% 9.1% 0.423 -0.032
50 Marco Gonzales 56 +6 80.7% 100.1 3.77 78.8% 19.7% 21.2% -1.6% 4.9% 0.449 -0.037
51 Zack Godley 48 -3 80.6% 92.1 5.07 81.2% 24.5% 21.9% 2.6% 11.9% 0.467 -0.038
52 Jake Odorizzi 52 0 80.0% 85.2 4.62 81.8% 23.6% 23.5% 0.1% 10.4% 0.478 -0.01
53 Jose Urena 50 -3 80.0% 94.0 4.4 74.3% 18.7% 19.4% -0.7% 5.4% 0.429 -0.04
54 Julio Teheran 51 -3 79.6% 87.2 4.21 78.0% 22.7% 21.2% 1.5% 11.3% 0.458 -0.04
55 Jake Arrieta 54 -1 79.2% 89.0 3.54 66.5% 15.5% 16.4% -0.9% 7.8% 0.387 -0.006
56 Jhoulys Chacin 57 +1 78.9% 97.0 3.71 70.7% 19.7% 18.4% 1.3% 10.4% 0.419 -0.053
57 Tanner Roark 59 +2 77.8% 98.1 3.94 72.8% 19.5% 20.3% -0.8% 8.7% 0.448 -0.047
58 Steven Matz 71 +13 77.5% 83.1 3.46 63.6% 18.3% 21.7% -3.4% 9.1% 0.391 0.012
59 Luke Weaver 62 +3 77.3% 89.0 5.16 73.5% 20.7% 20.9% -0.3% 8.7% 0.459 -0.032
60 Sean Manaea 64 +4 76.8% 106.2 3.38 77.3% 20.2% 17.9% 2.3% 4.7% 0.491 -0.123
61 David Price 53 -8 76.7% 96.2 4.28 70.6% 18.4% 22.9% -4.6% 8.2% 0.448 -0.015
62 Jose Quintana 61 -1 76.4% 85.2 4.31 68.9% 18.3% 21.5% -3.2% 10.7% 0.44 -0.016
63 Michael Wacha 68 +5 76.3% 84.1 3.2 72.9% 21.0% 20.0% 0.9% 10.1% 0.468 -0.124
64 Mike Fiers [UR] [N/A] 75.8% 92.2 3.79 72.2% 18.4% 17.4% 1.0% 5.1% 0.471 -0.018
65 Chad Bettis 67 +2 75.7% 95.1 5.1 71.0% 19.4% 16.9% 2.5% 9.3% 0.464 -0.01
66 Chase Anderson 76 +10 75.7% 88.1 4.18 69.4% 18.7% 19.1% -0.5% 9.8% 0.454 -0.055
67 Reynaldo Lopez 69 +2 75.7% 100.1 3.68 69.4% 19.1% 17.1% 2.0% 9.8% 0.454 -0.065
68 Kyle Hendricks 58 -10 75.6% 92.0 4.21 72.9% 19.2% 18.3% 0.9% 7.6% 0.478 -0.049
69 Jakob Junis 63 -6 75.6% 101.2 5.13 75.5% 19.8% 20.9% -1.2% 6.4% 0.495 -0.008
70 Felix Hernandez 73 +3 75.5% 100.1 5.11 72.4% 18.8% 19.4% -0.7% 8.2% 0.476 -0.046
71 James Shields 65 -6 75.5% 113.0 4.06 72.5% 19.7% 16.1% 3.6% 9.1% 0.477 -0.108
72 Marco Estrada 66 -6 75.3% 89.1 4.53 75.9% 20.6% 18.5% 2.1% 6.4% 0.502 -0.015
73 Trevor Williams 72 -1 75.2% 91.2 4.22 67.9% 17.3% 17.9% -0.6% 7.9% 0.45 -0.048
74 Ivan Nova 70 -4 75.0% 87.1 4.02 72.4% 18.6% 18.5% 0.1% 4.1% 0.483 -0.042
75 Jon Lester 74 -1 74.3% 100.0 2.25 70.4% 19.3% 19.3% 0.0% 8.5% 0.479 -0.125
76 Danny Duffy 77 +1 73.9% 94.2 4.94 76.3% 21.7% 19.8% 1.9% 11.0% 0.523 -0.063
77 Derek Holland 75 -2 73.9% 88.2 4.36 71.2% 20.2% 21.9% -1.8% 9.8% 0.489 -0.042
78 Mike Minor [UR] [N/A] 73.0% 85.1 4.64 75.8% 20.6% 19.8% 0.8% 5.4% 0.532 -0.066
79 Sal Romano 81 +2 71.5% 90.0 5.3 65.7% 16.5% 16.8% -0.3% 9.5% 0.485 -0.017
80 Jason Hammel 83 +3 70.7% 100.1 5.56 73.8% 18.5% 14.5% 4.0% 6.6% 0.55 -0.084
81 Ian Kennedy 79 -2 70.4% 91.2 5.11 69.5% 17.6% 20.9% -3.3% 8.2% 0.525 -0.047
82 Chris Stratton 80 -2 70.2% 91.0 4.45 66.7% 17.8% 18.1% -0.3% 9.0% 0.508 -0.08
83 Mike Leake 87 +4 70.1% 107.2 4.01 71.0% 16.6% 14.9% 1.7% 5.4% 0.539 -0.106
84 Lucas Giolito 82 -2 69.4% 84.2 6.59 63.0% 17.7% 13.2% 4.5% 13.2% 0.495 -0.046
85 Chad Kuhl 84 -1 69.0% 85.0 4.55 69.8% 20.5% 21.7% -1.2% 8.9% 0.546 -0.083
86 Andrew Cashner 85 -1 68.9% 88.1 4.48 62.2% 15.9% 18.2% -2.4% 10.2% 0.496 0
87 Daniel Mengden 86 -1 68.8% 90.2 4.47 68.5% 16.7% 14.5% 2.2% 5.0% 0.54 -0.097
88 Bartolo Colon 88 0 62.4% 87.2 4.93 60.1% 11.7% 13.5% -1.9% 4.1% 0.569 -0.049

A couple minor changes have been made in the table since last time:

  1.  Added IP, by request
  2.  Changed “Predicted K%” to “xK%” (to save space)
  3.  Dropped the word “Pitcher” from Pitcher Score, now it’s just “Score” (also to save space)

For Reference:

  1.  “PD Score” is short for plate discipline score, a combined metric of strikeout ability weighted as:  3 points O-Swing%, 3 points Contact%, 3 points SwStr%, 1 point F-Strike%.
  2.  “Score” is a combined metric weighted equally between PD Score and xSLG.
  3.  For both luck indication columns (xK%-K% and SLG-xSLG) positive numbers indicate bad luck so far (likely to regress positively) while negative numbers indicate good luck so far (likely to regress negatively).  A higher SLG value is bad for pitchers, and I wanted it to be easy to remember: Positive Numbers = Good Outlook.
  4.  IP, ERA, K%, BB%, and SLG are not included in the calculations, these are only included in the table for reference.
  5.  For any newcomers, to understand the concepts behind these numbers I would recommend reading my introduction piece.

 

#19 CC Sabathia (SP, New York Yankees)

Sabathia makes a cannonball splash onto the qualified leaderboard, slotting right into the top 20. I wouldn’t want him devouring everything at my BBQ, but I DEFINITELY wouldn’t mind this old workhorse on my fantasy team. In a truly shocking development, Sabathia has fully re-invented himself as a “crafty lefty,” a far cry from the fire-breathing behemoth he once was, but effective nonetheless. He is pitching exceptionally well, and only three qualified pitchers have more of a disparity between their K% and xK% (22.3% vs. 28.8%). An uptick in strikeouts could be on the way, and the big man should continue to rack up wins all summer with backing from a killer offense and one of baseball’s most lethal bullpens. A real Yankee Doodle Dandy, if you will.

#26 Luis Castillo (SP, Cincinnati Reds)

Castillo’s season has been kind of a melted poopsicle so far, turning in sub-par outing after sub-par outing with plenty offensive “fireworks” coming from opposing lineups. He continues to show well by plate discipline metrics, slotting in at number 26 and featuring the largest disparity between his K% and xK% of all qualified pitchers (xK-K% of +6.5%, indicating poor strikeout luck.) His most recent start was one of his best this year (6+ shutout innings against the admittedly lowly ChiSox) and I still retain optimism about his second half. I am curious to see how he’ll fare against Chicago’s superior team this Sunday.

#33 Jameson Taillon (SP, Pittsburgh Pirates)

Taillon has been pretty frustrating this year, but I am encouraged by his placement on this list in the 30s. He’s pitching reasonably well, and has the look of someone who’s been getting a tad unlucky. If you bail on him now, you might be left feeling like the last one to hop into the pool later on in the season. OK, that reference felt forced. But forced references are part of the human experience, no? WELCOME TO EARTH.

Look at this table showing Taillon’s xStats vs. performance so far:

Avg OBP SLG BABIP BACON
x .232 .290 .376 .280 .307
Actual .243 .325 .389 .293 .321

Taillon’s strong PD metrics and good batted ball profile (generating GBs, DBs, at a rate greater than league average and also suppressing drives at a rate better than league average) make him a sneaky trade target for your second half run. Finish spiking that watermelon and make your league’s owner an offer!

 

And now, for those injured studs and plucky try-hards, here is the data for the non-qualified SP (10 IP minimum):

Name Team SCORE IP ERA PD Score xK% K% xK-K% BB% xSLG SLG-xSLG
Matt Strahm Padres 104.8% 13.1 1.35 103.1% 31.1% 35.3% -4.2% 5.9% 0.290 -0.061
Freddy Peralta Brewers 100.3% 27.2 2.28 95.6% 30.0% 37.7% -7.8% 11.3% 0.300 -0.098
Noah Syndergaard Mets 98.8% 64.2 3.06 99.1% 30.6% 28.3% 2.3% 4.8% 0.343 0.021
Shohei Ohtani Angels 96.9% 49.1 3.10 99.1% 34.0% 30.5% 3.5% 10.0% 0.368 -0.048
Jonathan Loaisiga Yankees 95.4% 18.0 3.00 92.0% 26.4% 28.4% -2.1% 10.8% 0.342 -0.009
Ryan Borucki Blue Jays 94.1% 13.0 2.77 78.9% 20.3% 20.8% -0.6% 7.6% 0.271 0.056
Max Fried Braves 94.1% 11.2 0.77 83.1% 28.3% 36.2% -7.9% 14.9% 0.300 -0.069
Felix Pena Angels 93.0% 14.1 2.51 97.2% 30.7% 27.4% 3.3% 8.1% 0.408 -0.051
Kenta Maeda Dodgers 91.8% 74.0 3.41 93.1% 28.3% 27.7% 0.6% 9.2% 0.396 -0.021
Ross Stripling Dodgers 91.7% 68.0 2.65 83.9% 22.8% 28.9% -6.2% 2.6% 0.337 0.068
Shane Bieber Indians 91.3% 24.1 2.22 88.7% 26.8% 26.2% 0.6% 3.9% 0.374 0.038
Robbie Ray Diamondbacks 90.7% 38.2 4.89 95.9% 30.1% 34.3% -4.2% 11.8% 0.430 0.005
Ryne Stanek Rays 90.1% 12.2 1.42 90.3% 27.7% 30.6% -2.9% 12.2% 0.401 -0.238
Johnny Cueto Giants 89.8% 32.0 0.84 76.2% 22.3% 22.2% 0.0% 5.1% 0.311 -0.105
Jack Flaherty Cardinals 89.6% 61.2 2.92 84.8% 26.6% 29.1% -2.6% 7.2% 0.371 -0.01
Masahiro Tanaka Yankees 89.5% 72.2 4.58 98.1% 28.8% 24.8% 4.0% 6.5% 0.460 -0.019
Trevor Cahill Athletics 89.1% 48.2 2.77 92.2% 28.5% 25.0% 3.5% 5.9% 0.427 -0.074
Walker Buehler Dodgers 88.8% 51.1 2.63 72.4% 19.1% 26.7% -7.6% 5.5% 0.298 -0.025
Carlos Martinez Cardinals 88.6% 78.2 3.20 76.8% 21.2% 22.8% -1.7% 12.8% 0.331 -0.021
Austin Bibens-Dirkx Rangers 87.5% 22.2 3.57 87.0% 22.7% 17.5% 5.2% 6.2% 0.413 -0.038
Jordan Montgomery Yankees 87.5% 27.1 3.62 79.9% 21.5% 19.8% 1.7% 10.3% 0.366 -0.01
Hyun-Jin Ryu Dodgers 87.1% 29.2 2.12 79.3% 24.8% 31.3% -6.5% 8.7% 0.367 -0.059
Edwin Jackson Athletics 87.1% 12.2 2.13 74.7% 20.0% 27.7% -7.8% 0.0% 0.337 0.019
Mike Montgomery Cubs 86.8% 40.2 2.43 83.8% 22.7% 18.2% 4.5% 7.3% 0.401 -0.088
Brad Keller Royals 86.4% 33.2 2.14 73.9% 19.9% 14.8% 5.1% 8.2% 0.340 -0.072
Garrett Richards Angels 86.3% 68.1 3.42 84.0% 25.8% 26.8% -1.0% 11.0% 0.410 -0.05
Joe Musgrove Pirates 86.1% 40.1 3.79 79.1% 20.8% 20.3% 0.4% 6.2% 0.379 0.019
Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 85.4% 57.0 2.84 82.4% 23.1% 27.2% -4.2% 5.2% 0.410 -0.019
John Gant Cardinals 85.4% 27.1 4.61 80.6% 22.9% 21.9% 1.0% 10.5% 0.398 -0.088
Zach Eflin Phillies 84.8% 56.2 3.02 78.5% 22.1% 24.5% -2.4% 6.0% 0.393 -0.03
Wilmer Font Rays 84.5% 21.0 1.71 70.7% 20.5% 22.0% -1.6% 9.8% 0.345 -0.075
Sam Gaviglio Blue Jays 84.4% 43.1 4.15 82.3% 22.1% 21.6% 0.5% 7.2% 0.424 0.018
Seth Lugo Mets 83.9% 23.0 3.52 77.3% 21.6% 26.5% -4.9% 5.9% 0.397 -0.003
Stephen Strasburg Nationals 83.5% 80.2 3.46 85.1% 24.5% 29.1% -4.6% 5.8% 0.454 -0.055
Caleb Smith Marlins 83.3% 77.1 4.19 82.9% 24.3% 27.0% -2.7% 10.1% 0.442 -0.054
Anibal Sanchez Braves 83.1% 50.0 3.06 76.1% 20.1% 22.7% -2.7% 7.4% 0.400 0.001
Chris Archer Rays 83.0% 76.1 4.24 86.4% 26.4% 23.7% 2.7% 8.1% 0.469 -0.05
Yu Darvish Cubs 82.7% 40.0 4.95 78.2% 24.1% 27.2% -3.2% 11.7% 0.418 0.007
Dereck Rodriguez Giants 82.0% 33.2 3.21 75.7% 20.3% 20.1% 0.1% 5.6% 0.411 -0.009
Madison Bumgarner Giants 81.8% 38.1 2.58 73.7% 18.0% 18.9% -0.9% 7.6% 0.400 -0.039
Andrew Heaney Angels 81.8% 82.0 3.95 81.5% 23.1% 22.3% 0.7% 7.0% 0.453 -0.039
Fernando Romero Twins 81.0% 51.1 4.38 79.0% 22.8% 19.6% 3.2% 8.5% 0.446 -0.037
Nick Kingham Pirates 80.5% 38.1 4.70 83.0% 24.1% 22.4% 1.7% 6.1% 0.480 -0.033
Hector Velazquez Red Sox 80.0% 10.2 2.53 91.4% 23.4% 22.7% 0.6% 4.6% 0.543 -0.091
Nick Tropeano Angels 79.8% 54.0 4.83 83.7% 25.5% 19.6% 5.9% 8.9% 0.494 -0.019
Mike Soroka Braves 79.8% 25.2 3.51 78.7% 22.0% 18.6% 3.4% 6.2% 0.461 -0.048
Nathan Eovaldi Rays 79.7% 41.1 3.92 79.3% 19.5% 21.9% -2.4% 3.8% 0.466 -0.032
Junior Guerra Brewers 79.7% 82.2 3.05 74.9% 21.3% 23.3% -2.1% 9.0% 0.437 -0.064
Wade LeBlanc Mariners 79.7% 58.1 3.09 79.7% 19.3% 18.6% 0.7% 5.1% 0.469 -0.078
Jordan Zimmermann Tigers 79.2% 48.1 3.91 78.3% 20.0% 22.6% -2.6% 5.0% 0.466 -0.07
Jordan Lyles Padres 78.8% 47.0 4.79 72.6% 17.9% 19.9% -2.1% 5.5% 0.433 0.051
Trevor Richards Marlins 78.8% 48.0 5.06 70.9% 19.0% 20.5% -1.6% 10.5% 0.422 -0.004
Jeremy Hellickson Nationals 78.7% 48.0 2.63 75.2% 20.2% 20.3% -0.1% 4.3% 0.452 -0.049
Tyler Chatwood Cubs 78.7% 73.1 4.54 67.9% 19.9% 20.6% -0.7% 19.4% 0.404 -0.059
Yonny Chirinos Rays 78.3% 22.2 4.37 75.9% 20.1% 21.0% -0.9% 8.0% 0.462 -0.043
Ryan Yarbrough Rays 78.3% 20.2 5.23 70.7% 18.4% 19.1% -0.7% 6.7% 0.427 -0.002
Joey Lucchesi Padres 78.3% 58.0 3.26 73.9% 22.0% 25.2% -3.2% 9.7% 0.449 -0.041
Blaine Hardy Tigers 78.1% 43.2 3.71 70.1% 17.1% 16.6% 0.5% 5.5% 0.426 0.005
Aaron Sanchez Blue Jays 77.9% 79.2 4.52 76.6% 22.5% 18.7% 3.8% 12.6% 0.472 -0.085
Carlos Rodon White Sox 77.7% 29.2 4.55 72.1% 18.4% 17.3% 1.1% 7.1% 0.445 -0.033
Anthony DeSclafani Reds 77.4% 28.1 4.45 66.7% 16.9% 20.3% -3.5% 7.6% 0.413 0.049
Chris Bassitt Athletics 76.8% 22.1 2.82 64.4% 13.7% 18.4% -4.7% 8.2% 0.406 -0.133
Francisco Liriano Tigers 76.7% 67.2 3.99 78.7% 23.3% 18.7% 4.6% 13.0% 0.502 -0.128
Jaime Barria Angels 75.1% 55.2 3.40 82.6% 23.8% 20.0% 3.8% 7.0% 0.549 -0.12
Clay Buchholz Diamondbacks 74.9% 38.2 2.56 74.6% 18.9% 20.3% -1.4% 4.6% 0.499 -0.126
Matt Harvey Reds 73.8% 74.2 4.46 66.8% 17.5% 18.3% -0.8% 5.1% 0.461 -0.035
Andrew Suarez Giants 73.6% 71.0 4.18 66.5% 15.7% 22.6% -7.0% 5.1% 0.462 -0.027
Andrew Triggs Athletics 73.0% 41.1 5.23 75.9% 21.4% 23.6% -2.3% 9.9% 0.533 -0.12
Adam Wainwright Cardinals 72.9% 18.0 4.00 55.9% 14.0% 17.1% -3.1% 15.9% 0.400 0.035
Steven Wright Red Sox 72.7% 24.0 4.13 67.0% 19.0% 16.8% 2.2% 9.9% 0.478 -0.122
Brandon McCarthy Braves 72.6% 78.2 4.92 65.9% 15.7% 19.2% -3.5% 6.2% 0.471 0.027
Frankie Montas Athletics 72.4% 42.1 3.83 62.8% 16.3% 15.2% 1.1% 7.1% 0.453 -0.01
Dylan Covey White Sox 72.4% 46.2 4.82 63.4% 15.9% 17.1% -1.2% 10.9% 0.457 -0.054
Zach Davies Brewers 72.3% 43.0 5.23 69.1% 18.7% 16.3% 2.4% 9.0% 0.497 -0.003
Eric Lauer Padres 72.2% 62.0 5.08 63.5% 16.5% 18.8% -2.4% 9.4% 0.461 0.039
Dan Straily Marlins 70.9% 59.1 4.70 77.2% 22.3% 20.1% 2.2% 11.2% 0.569 -0.11
Ty Blach Giants 70.9% 60.2 4.90 60.7% 14.7% 11.1% 3.6% 8.5% 0.460 -0.047
Jake Faria Rays 70.4% 47.2 5.48 68.1% 19.0% 18.2% 0.7% 10.8% 0.516 -0.093
Elieser Hernandez Marlins 69.6% 22.0 4.50 71.6% 21.2% 18.7% 2.5% 5.5% 0.549 0.011
Rich Hill Dodgers 69.5% 42.1 4.68 66.8% 16.7% 24.3% -7.6% 8.5% 0.519 -0.034
Matt Wisler Braves 68.7% 17.1 3.63 73.6% 20.7% 18.6% 2.1% 7.1% 0.575 -0.16
Adam Plutko Indians 68.2% 34.2 4.67 71.6% 17.3% 16.9% 0.4% 6.3% 0.568 -0.034
Brian Johnson Red Sox 67.5% 10.0 1.80 55.7% 13.8% 17.1% -3.3% 7.3% 0.471 -0.076
Doug Fister Rangers 66.4% 66.0 4.50 55.9% 11.8% 13.8% -2.0% 6.6% 0.487 -0.031
Daniel Gossett Athletics 64.9% 24.1 5.18 66.2% 15.5% 11.8% 3.7% 7.8% 0.576 -0.081
Taijuan Walker Diamondbacks 62.7% 13.0 3.46 57.6% 15.1% 16.1% -1.1% 8.9% 0.548 -0.156
Jarlin Garcia Marlins 61.0% 33.0 3.55 65.1% 18.0% 16.7% 1.3% 9.9% 0.620 -0.222
Matt Koch Diamondbacks 56.9% 69.2 4.52 60.7% 13.5% 12.1% 1.4% 5.9% 0.646 -0.14
Lance Lynn Twins 84.7% 80.1 5.49 78.8% 22.7% 22.2% 0.5% 13.5% 0.396 0.021
Paul Blackburn Athletics 81.3% 23.2 6.46 73.0% 18.2% 16.2% 2.0% 5.1% 0.402 0.027
Yovani Gallardo Rangers 77.8% 17.2 6.11 67.2% 15.7% 18.9% -3.2% 8.1% 0.410 0.016
Wei-Yin Chen Marlins 78.9% 61.2 5.55 69.9% 17.9% 16.7% 1.2% 9.1% 0.414 0.069
Domingo German Yankees 94.9% 49.0 5.88 102.1% 31.8% 27.1% 4.7% 6.8% 0.416 0.044
Caleb Ferguson Dodgers 80.9% 10.2 7.59 78.9% 26.7% 25.0% 1.7% 12.5% 0.447 -0.047
Luis Perdomo Padres 74.4% 14.0 8.36 68.5% 21.2% 22.1% -0.9% 11.7% 0.465 0.058
Marcus Stroman Blue Jays 77.2% 49.1 6.02 75.3% 21.7% 18.6% 3.1% 8.6% 0.473 -0.054
Drew Pomeranz Red Sox 72.1% 37.0 6.81 65.2% 16.7% 20.8% -4.2% 12.1% 0.473 0.07
Brandon Woodruff Brewers 72.2% 15.2 6.32 65.8% 19.2% 18.1% 1.1% 12.5% 0.476 -0.083
Dillon Peters Marlins 70.0% 24.2 5.84 62.0% 16.3% 14.4% 1.9% 11.7% 0.480 -0.011
David Hess Orioles 72.7% 47.0 5.94 69.3% 16.7% 12.4% 4.3% 9.1% 0.492 0.016
Jaime Garcia Blue Jays 71.0% 61.1 6.16 68.1% 19.0% 19.9% -1.0% 11.0% 0.508 0.004
Jason Vargas Mets 77.9% 37.2 8.60 82.2% 22.9% 17.8% 5.1% 7.8% 0.509 0.104
Alex Cobb Orioles 68.1% 74.2 6.75 63.0% 14.8% 14.6% 0.2% 6.1% 0.512 0.054
Brandon Finnegan Reds 68.0% 20.2 7.40 63.0% 16.0% 13.6% 2.4% 14.6% 0.513 0.04
Matt Moore Rangers 74.1% 55.0 8.02 75.2% 20.1% 14.7% 5.4% 9.3% 0.513 0.056
Ben Lively Phillies 67.2% 23.2 6.85 62.8% 17.9% 19.1% -1.3% 8.7% 0.522 0.023
Bryan Mitchell Padres 59.3% 32.0 6.47 47.1% 11.8% 10.4% 1.4% 16.9% 0.523 -0.027
Jeff Samardzija Giants 69.9% 35.2 6.56 68.8% 17.7% 15.7% 2.0% 13.9% 0.527 -0.084
Eric Skoglund Royals 69.1% 49.2 6.70 70.3% 17.3% 18.0% -0.7% 6.5% 0.548 -0.018
Kendall Graveman Athletics 67.0% 34.1 7.60 67.6% 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 8.2% 0.557 -0.015
Erick Fedde Nationals 68.0% 27.0 6.00 70.3% 18.7% 16.4% 2.3% 7.8% 0.562 -0.005
Joe Biagini Blue Jays 64.9% 18.2 7.71 65.9% 16.7% 14.4% 2.3% 10.0% 0.574 -0.08
Brett Anderson Athletics 64.9% 15.1 7.63 67.1% 18.0% 11.1% 6.9% 8.3% 0.582 0.009
John Lamb Angels 66.7% 10.0 7.20 72.3% 17.8% 22.0% -4.3% 8.0% 0.593 0.124
Hector Santiago White Sox 61.1% 32.1 6.12 62.0% 16.5% 15.9% 0.6% 15.2% 0.598 -0.027
Homer Bailey Reds 62.1% 62.0 6.68 64.2% 15.8% 13.0% 2.8% 8.2% 0.600 -0.036
Martin Perez Rangers 55.1% 22.1 9.67 51.8% 11.6% 10.9% 0.6% 10.1% 0.610 0.06
Steven Brault Pirates 63.8% 26.0 5.54 69.2% 20.0% 13.4% 6.6% 12.5% 0.611 -0.213
Ryan Carpenter Tigers 57.4% 12.0 6.75 58.5% 14.9% 10.7% 4.2% 3.6% 0.624 -0.047
Carson Fulmer White Sox 55.3% 31.0 8.13 56.5% 14.6% 16.6% -2.1% 15.3% 0.640 -0.136
Chris Tillman Orioles 51.6% 26.2 10.46 49.4% 11.9% 9.5% 2.4% 12.4% 0.641 0.011
Miguel Gonzalez White Sox 56.8% 12.1 12.41 66.3% 15.5% 7.6% 7.9% 9.1% 0.684 0.099
Josh Tomlin Indians 55.9% 30.0 8.10 73.8% 19.1% 12.9% 6.2% 3.6% 0.746 -0.019

 

Marcus Stroman (SP, Toronto Blue Jays)

Stroman has been a solid fantasy #2-3 for a few years, but his season so far has been uglier than your dad’s Tommy Bahama shirt. And that was BEFORE it got accidentally covered in barbecue sauce. Astute owners should recognize this as a buying opportunity, however, and he may even be sitting on your league’s wire. All of Stroman’s season long stats are going to look pretty awful still, but his two recent starts off the DL (1-0, 12.0 IP, 9k, 1 ER allowed against LAA and DET) have me very interested in him heading into the All-Star break. I think he has the potential to be a huge difference maker if he’s back to being healthy, as he appears to be.

Zach Eflin (SP, Philadelphia Phillies)

Zach Eflin has been unstoppable lately, like Uncle Sam coming for your taxes. He’s really benefited from a big uptick in strikeouts, currently sitting at a 24.6% rate which is near double what he featured in the past two years. He’s seen a bump in velocity, as highlighted by our very own King and Tyrant Nick Pollack over on Rotographs back in May, and it seems to have helped as his fastball has accrued a pVal of 4.3 so far after being a mediocre offering in previous seasons. His current score of 84.8% would place him in the top 30s of qualifiers. I’m thinking he looks pretty legit- see if you can pry him away from a league-mate who doesn’t fully believe.

Alex Cobb (SP, Baltimore Orioles)

Corn on the cob is traditionally consumed on the 4th of July.

 

And there we have it! Stay safe, drink up, and we’ll see ya next time.

 

 

 

Stephen Honovich

Steve is a contributing writer for Pitcherlist and QBlist. A grizzled fantasy sports veteran, he is still waiting for Rich Harden's Cy Young to come in.

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Comments


Mr. G

This is a lot to digest. Spent nearly an hour reviewing the introduction and examining the stats. What I took away is that a pitcher like Taillon looks good because of his score and his batted ball profile. Are there any others who stand out as similar trade targets for a team in need of pitching?

Also, a Mets fan wants my Nimmo and is offering Berrios if I throw in another SP. I can package Nimmo with Tanaka, G. Richards, Heaney, or Nick Pollack’s favorite Nick Pivetta. What’s the best way to use this analysis to decide which SP to unload? Just look at the rankings overall? It’s a H2H categories league, so getting Ks doesn’t help if my pitcher pulls a Jon Gray and annihilates my ERA and WHIP. Berrios seems like a consensus top 20 list for nearly every credible analyst. But this PD ranking would seem to indicate that there’s not a ton of separation between him and some of SPs I would have to package with Nimmo. How would you handle this ?

And Happy 4th to you all! Love the work you gents do!

Stephen Honovich

I think the best way to go about it is to look at pitchers with nice scores whose numbers and reputation maybe do not line up with how well they are actually pitching. Aside from the aforementioned Sabathia, Taillon, Castillo, Eflin and Stroman, I think it might be easiest to sift through the non-qualifiers. Loaisiga, Musgrove, and Kingham all have nice skillsets and could probably be had on the cheap.

As far as your trade scenario, you’re absolutely right – a lot of the arms you’d be offering rank similarly to Berrios by this analysis. But this analysis is only one piece of the puzzle, and you need to take team, durability, IPS, etc into account. You can also look at the xK-K% and SLG-xSLG columns to see who may have been lucky/unlucky so far – a positive number indicates some good regression may be on the come. Garrett Richards is negative on both of these columns and has a lengthy injury history- I’m one of the low men on him at PL and I’d have no problem shipping Nimmo and Richards for Berrios.

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