Our beloved and fleeting 60-game season has already ended and it’s time to look ahead to the (hopefully) full 162-game slate of 2021.
These rankings are going to be wildly different come February as injuries arise, rehab becomes clear, transactions are made, and – most importantly – I personally take the time to dive deeper into each of these players.
Don’t let that stop you from joining the discussion! Let’s start talking about the Top 100 starting pitchers for 2020, here with a focus on 12-team roto leagues.
Ranking Notes
- It’s Jacob deGrom, Shane Bieber, and Gerrit Cole. These three shouldn’t be in contention for the top tier as you know you’re going to get 200+ innings with elite strikeouts and ratios. It’s that simple.
- I really don’t have an issue with anyone changing the order here. They are all so dope. Did you know deGrom had a 21.6% SwStr this year? CRAZY.
- I stared at Tier 2 for ages. This is madness and I feel weird shrugging this much before we’ve left the Top 5. Yu Darvish is the clear winner here with 2019’s second half getting reinforced with his 2020 campaign.
- I imagine many are surprised at Trevor Bauer at #5, but the dude was simply incredible. All the other guys below? Not as incredible. We were treating 2018 as the outlier season, but maybe it’s 2019…
- Here I was saying that I would be lowering Max Scherzer relative to others and he’s #6. That’s what I get for not taking into account the actual SP Landscape! Even with his injury concerns, his ability is as proven as all the others and he can still muscle 200 frames, unlike Clayton Kershaw, who still hasn’t tossed 180 innings since 2015. Love that new velocity, though.
- I put out this Top 10 prematurely over the weekend and I feel bad to have shifted it after giving it more thought. Dinelson Lamet is out given the injury dings he’s going to get, Walker Buehler gets lowered given the Dodgers will likely baby him with blister issues (not to mention, his overall lack of consistency in each of the last two seasons), and Aaron Nola’s incredible curveball + changeup across 200 innings grant a comfortable #7 spot.
- There’s a bit of worry around Luis Castillo – y’all know I love him and I’m very familiar with his fastballs’ volatility. It speaks to a great strikeout rate, but a lower ceiling in ERA/WHIP department, pushing him close to #15.
- Tier 3 = the Risk tier.
JustinDunn Dunn Dunn…I figure Stephen Strasburg is the best of the lot, so he gets the first spot, with Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow each being a bit risky since they don’t get the “workhorse” treatment on the Rays like their peers. - And what is the deal with Mike Clevinger? This spot is going to likely change by March, but even if he’s “fully” healthy, he’s still in this tier with his injury history.
- I’ll stop disrespecting Hyun Jin Ryu now as he leads off Tier 4. I don’t expect the near 30% strikeout rate, but he’s the floor guy for your full season. Zack Wheeler has a touch of that with strikeout upside, but he’s not higher given the question of if he’ll ever unlock that potential.
- Corbin Burnes in down at #27 since his fastball command isn’t as good as the bottom line suggests and I know I’m going to get comments about Max Fried at #29, but he doesn’t have the same strikeout ability while his command isn’t elite. He’s solid, not top of the line.
- There’s also Corey Kluber who tossed one inning and called it a season. I hope he’s back and healthy, which could make him the steal of drafts, and I had to bake in the chance he misses significant time. Again.
- Tier 5 is a stressful tier. It has a ton of fun names, but they all come with haze that often sits inside the 30s. Will they transition into proper studs or will they fall quickly and be a late April drop? I sat for a while about Chris Paddack and at the end of the day, if I had to bet on his fastball returning to 2019 form or continuing to disappoint like this year, I’d wager a full off-season gets the pitch back on track.
- I’m also excited about the return of Jameson Taillon. I wrestled with where to place him and it may be too high, though with almost two years to recover, I imagine he’ll be a strong arm early. He fell to the end of the tier as I expect some innings cap, but I’d want to grab him everywhere.
- It’s hard to really back the Dylan Bundy train as it all seems so…chaotic. His fastball velocity dropped in his final start and his entire approach hinges on his slider missing tons of bats while his fastball doesn’t get clobbered (Yes, curveballs for strikes too and hoping his changeup is excellent is a plus). I’m not sure he’s quite solidified yet to pull it off for six months and you may be rostering a HIPSTER out of the gate.
- Frankie Montas was a challenge as well, but like Paddack, I’m willing to wash away a bit of this season in favor of a full recovery for 2021.
- Tier 6 is the super-duper fun tier where Nick grabs way too many in drafts and ultimately holds most for too long, destroying his season. But seriously, here’s where you’ll find the exciting names that could propel forward, while you won’t feel so bad throwing them back to the wire if they don’t work out. For example, I’m a big believer in John Means‘ new velocity, especially after pairing it with better changeup command in September, and he’ll likely be a target of mine in drafts come March.
- Ian Anderson is a safe pick in my book, with a solid repertoire that should speak to good ratios throughout the year. Think a Toby that could hold a 25% strikeout rate on a winning team. Sign me up.
- I wonder what the paths ahead are for Tony Gonsolin and Michael Kopech. If both are inserted into the rotation for a full year, they could provide Top 40 value, if not higher.
- I still don’t love Framber Valdez’s sinker, but I adore his curveball. It’s enough for me to put him inside the Top 55 and let’s hope he can stay hot again.
- Will Tyler Mahle be able to grab a consistent rotation spot in Cincinnati? His embrace of the BSB with an improved slider makes me a fan if he gets the frames.
- Now we have Tier 7 – The Solid Toby tier, lead by Chris Bassitt who held a 2.22 ERA this season. I don’t expect that to continue, but he should be a benefit to your squad through the year.
- I wasn’t sure if Mike Minor fit here and he may be moved to the 70s later on, but I think that really depends on where he lands. A good fit may outline a solid Toby for you.
- Tier 8 is the point where you may as well stash a possible ace. I don’t know now what the status of Mike Soroka or Chris Sale will be in February/March. I figured I might as well place them here and we’ll talk about it in 2021. Sound good? Good.
- I stuck MacKenzie Gore here as well as we’ll have a better idea of his involvement with the Padres come spring. Here’s to hoping he gets a rotation spot early.
- There’s also James Paxton and Eduardo Rodriguez here as well as I don’t know how their injuries will carry over yet into 2021.
- Tier 9 we have the late-round fliers that you may want to consider out of the gate for their upside, but it could really fall on its face. Jose Urquidy should be a solid bet but still may not provide a whole lot for you to chase. Mitch Keller was a hot topic entering this year and now with his injuries behind him, he should be an interesting play for next year.
- Marcus Stroman appears here as I have no idea where to put him. There was some excitement entering this year with his cutter improving in September 2019, but then injury struck, he opted out, and yeah. Really hard to gauge, so I put him after the stashes as he could a quick drop in April or take that step forward and repeat a solid ERA with decent strikeouts and WHIP.
- I really hope Spencer Turnbull cuts his sinker out of his repertoire for 2021. That would be super cool.
- Daniel Ponce de Leon surprised us with an electric finish to the season and his ability to throw curveballs for strikes could carry over to this year.
- Take Tier 9 and make me less confident, that’s Tier 10. We have your Cherry Bomb poster child in Michael Pineda, the pendulum nature of Matthew Boyd and Zach Eflin, who some days suddenly has a great curveball.
- Will Andrew Heaney ever get his changeup and curveball in order? I SURE HOPE SO.
- Dean Kremer and Tanner Houck are also here as interesting young options that we got a small taste of at the end of last year. I don’t think of them too highly, but they could develop further and make for solid plays.
- And lastly, there’s Tier 11, which houses streaming options to consider, or decent Tobys in deeper leagues. Yes, it hurt to put Sean Manaea down here, but he really hasn’t shaped into the sturdy arm we wanted.
- I know Zach Davies had a crazy good year with that changeup, but I just don’t buy that it’ll stick through all of 2021, let alone be there again in April. I hope so, but I just don’t buy it.
- Okay, I know I left off a lot of pitchers – it’s really hard to do just 100! – allow me to break down as many as I can think of and why I didn’t add them here.
- Ross Stripling – Unclear role in Toronto + hasn’t had his curveball working for a bit.
- Brendan McKay – Will he get a clear role to start? Will he be good?
- Trevor Richards – Cool to see the BSB in full action late in the year, but it’s not enough.
- Brent Honeywell – I have no idea how he’ll look or be ready to go in the spring and will the Rays even let him get a chance?
- JA Happ – One of the last ones I removed. He’s a risk with his four-seamer elevating effectively in spurts. It’s hard to trust his September run.
- Martin Perez – A Toby at best. Not for me.
- Cole Hamels – Where will he end up? Will he be healthy enough to make an impact?
- Jon Lester – Think Lester but worse.
- Danny Duffy – Almost put him there out of respect, but in the end, he’s not a target for drafts.
- Casey Mize – He looked rough at the end of the year and I wouldn’t have faith that he’ll have it together to make you confident for his first few starts.
- Dylan Cease – The man had a 17.3% strikeout rate. SEVENTEEN POINT THREE PERCENT. That was supposed to be his good part.
- Dane Dunning – I know many like him, but in the end he’s a super late flier. I don’t see a whole lot in his stuff that speaks to me feeling ultra-confident in him.
- Carlos Rodon – Very tempting, I wonder how the White Sox will play it out in the spring. Always a volatile one, though, that Rodon.
- Adam Wainwright – I know, I know, this year was bonkers. I just can’t buy that his curveball will be that good again
- Adrian Houser – It was a disappointing season as his sinker wasn’t good enough to carry the lack of depth in his repertoire. Maybe it locks in along the way, but he’ll have to deal with “Camp Counseling” first and that’s a bummer.
- Carlos Martinez – I really wanted to put him as 101, but in the end, I worry that Martinez just is too volatile to trust in 12-teamers. Unless he has elite velocity and works his slider/changeup well, I wouldn’t trust a hot start.
- JT Brubaker – Had a few nice starts at the end of the year, but he’s capped with a good slider and sinker that can be BABIP’d. Decent streamer, that’s it.
- Brad Keller – Velocity decreased and his breaking ball wasn’t what we wanted it to be.
- Kris Bubic – Not a bad streamer, but still too raw to consider.
- David Peterson – Nearly made it on The List, has interesting upside with that slider, but I’m curious if it can actually stick during a full year.
- Elieser Hernandez – Great slider and nothing else. I wonder if he can put it together for a long stretch.
- Justus Sheffield – He can certainly be a Toby, I wonder if he’ll get enough consistency with his changeup and slider + I’m not a fan of his sinker.
- Taijuan Walker – There just isn’t enough stuff across his repertoire to make me think he can pull off 2020 again.
- Griffin Canning – The raw stuff is there, but his injury history + general volatility makes him a rare upside stream and nothing more.
- Anthony DeSclafani – He was incredibly shaky this year and while I expected to have him here, he’s likely just a streaming option to start the year and less of a guy I’d expect to stick on the roster all year.
- Shohei Ohtani – I’m anticipating that he isn’t pitching as the Angels move him to be an exclusive hitter given all of his arm trouble. I could be completely wrong here and would slot Ohtani around the 40s given the heavy injury risk. Man, I’d love to see a full season of Ohtani on the bump.
- Nate Pearson – Man, I’d love if he starts again next year. I have concerns that the Jays would play it safe with his elbow injury and stick him in the pen or even hold him back to start the year. Please be wrong…please be wrong…
- Spencer Howard – It wasn’t fun watching him struggle with his changeup and slider this year. It’s a wait-and-see if anything dramatically changes out of the gate before drafting him in 12-teamers.
- Keegan Akin – His stuff isn’t enough to trust in a 12-teamer early in April.
- Randy Dobnak – Does he even start next year? His strikeout rate is super low as well, a pick is too much investment for a low return.
- Homer Bailey – No idea where he ends up and if his return from injury features his old self.
- Jake Odorizzi – He had a blister to the end the year and now heads to Free Agency. Yeah, he probably deserves a spot here, but look at the end of this list now, all of these names deserve a spot, and so do many inside this fringe list! I guess if he signs with a good ball club, he’s around the 70s or so. For the sake of not making too many edits, Odorizzi stays off for now, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he has a prominent spot come February.
| Rank | Pitcher | Badges | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob deGromT1 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
| 2 | Shane Bieber | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
| 3 | Gerrit Cole | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
| 4 | Yu DarvishT2 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
| 5 | Trevor Bauer | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb | +2 |
| 6 | Max Scherzer | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -2 |
| 7 | Aaron Nola | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
| 8 | Lucas Giolito | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +5 |
| 9 | Walker Buehler | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +UR |
| 10 | Clayton Kershaw | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -1 |
| 11 | Kenta Maeda | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
| 12 | Zac Gallen | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
| 13 | Luis Castillo | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
| 14 | Dinelson Lamet | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 15 | Brandon Woodruff | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +13 |
| 16 | Stephen StrasburgT3 | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 17 | Blake Snell | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | -2 |
| 18 | Tyler Glasnow | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Low Ips | -2 |
| 19 | Jack Flaherty | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -1 |
| 20 | Lance Lynn | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -10 |
| 21 | Carlos Carrasco | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
| 22 | Sonny Gray | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -16 |
| 23 | Mike Clevinger | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -6 |
| 24 | Hyun Jin RyuT4 | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +12 |
| 25 | Zack Wheeler | Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -1 |
| 26 | Zach Plesac | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +7 |
| 27 | Corbin Burnes | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +16 |
| 28 | Corey Kluber | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +UR |
| 29 | Max Fried | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -3 |
| 30 | Charlie Morton | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk | - |
| 31 | Zack Greinke | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | -6 |
| 32 | Jesús LuzardoT5 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | -12 |
| 33 | Kyle Hendricks | Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +6 |
| 34 | Chris Paddack | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -11 |
| 35 | Patrick Corbin | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -8 |
| 36 | Sandy Alcantara | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +12 |
| 37 | Sixto Sánchez | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -5 |
| 38 | Frankie Montas | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +21 |
| 39 | Lance McCullers Jr. | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips | -5 |
| 40 | David Price | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 41 | Dylan Bundy | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -10 |
| 42 | Julio Urías | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -13 |
| 43 | José Berríos | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -8 |
| 44 | Aaron Civale | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | -23 |
| 45 | Jameson Taillon | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 46 | Ian AndersonT6 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Ratio Focused | +1 |
| 47 | Pablo López | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | -9 |
| 48 | John Means | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +12 |
| 49 | Kevin Gausman | Ace Potential Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +2 |
| 50 | Tony Gonsolin | Strikeout Upside Ratio Focused | - |
| 51 | Joe Musgrove | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +UR |
| 52 | Tyler Mahle | Strikeout Upside Streaming Option | +2 |
| 53 | Framber Valdez | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | -4 |
| 54 | Michael Kopech | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 55 | Jordan Montgomery | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Streaming Option Stash Option | -18 |
| 56 | Deivi García | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | - |
| 57 | Triston McKenzie | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -13 |
| 58 | Germán Márquez | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -5 |
| 59 | Chris BassittT7 | Strikeout Upside Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +12 |
| 60 | Masahiro Tanaka | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Ratio Focused | -15 |
| 61 | Dustin May | Low Ips Ratio Focused | -21 |
| 62 | Dallas Keuchel | Toby Ratio Focused | -20 |
| 63 | Kwang Hyun Kim | Toby Streaming Option | +14 |
| 64 | Mike Minor | Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +10 |
| 65 | Michael SorokaT8 | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused Stash Option | +UR |
| 66 | Chris Sale | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option | +UR |
| 67 | Luis Severino | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option | +UR |
| 68 | Noah Syndergaard | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option | +UR |
| 69 | MacKenzie Gore | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option | +UR |
| 70 | James Paxton | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 71 | Eduardo Rodriguez | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 72 | José UrquidyT9 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips | +UR |
| 73 | Mitch Keller | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +UR |
| 74 | Marcus Stroman | Strikeout Upside Toby Ratio Focused | +UR |
| 75 | Spencer Turnbull | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | -7 |
| 76 | Brady Singer | Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +18 |
| 77 | Daniel Ponce de Leon | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +UR |
| 78 | Seth Lugo | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips | -21 |
| 79 | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +UR | |
| 80 | Caleb Smith | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +UR |
| 81 | Ryan Yarbrough | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +UR |
| 82 | Luke Weaver | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb Ratio Focused | +2 |
| 83 | Yusei Kikuchi | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Toby Streaming Option | -20 |
| 84 | Domingo Germán | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 85 | Zach EflinT10 | Toby Streaming Option | -24 |
| 86 | Michael Pineda | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | -4 |
| 87 | Andrew Heaney | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -22 |
| 88 | Matthew Boyd | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -22 |
| 89 | Rich Hill | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | -20 |
| 90 | Robbie Ray | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | -5 |
| 91 | Garrett Richards | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | -3 |
| 92 | Madison Bumgarner | Injury Risk Toby Ratio Focused | +UR |
| 93 | Marco Gonzales | Toby Streaming Option | -18 |
| 94 | Cristian Javier | Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | -30 |
| 95 | Dean Kremer | Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 96 | Tanner Houck | Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 97 | Tarik Skubal | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | -11 |
| 98 | Josh LindblomT11 | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | -8 |
| 99 | Sean Manaea | Injury Risk Ratio Focused | -29 |
| 100 | Zach Davies | Toby Streaming Option | -27 |
Labels Legend
Aces Gonna Ace
Ace Potential
Holly
Toby
Cherry Bomb
Spice Girl
Vargas Rule
Streaming Option
QS Bonus
Wins Bonus
Strikeouts Bonus
Ratios Bonus
Rotation Spot Bonus
Team Context Effect
Stash Option
Injury Risk
Playing Time Question
(Graphic by Justin Paradis – @FreshmeatComm)
Great article! You are the only one who truly appreciates Gallen.
A few pitchers I was hoping would be back on the list:
James Paxton, Domingo German, Caleb Smith, David Price and Eduardo Rodriguez
MAN! I can’t believe I left off those guys, I thought I did my due diligence!
Added them all. They deserve a spot and my ignorance for a moment outweighs any stubbornness to justify not updating it.
Thanks Firtree!
No problem. Hoping that everyone else forgets about Price next year and I get a good bargain.
No mention of pearson or howard. Assuming that means they’re way down the list for you even among the guys who didnt make it?
Hey! I should add them to the notes.
I’m expecting the Jays to be safe with Pearson given the arm issues –> bullpen. I really hope I’m wrong here!
With Howard, it’ll take a moment for me to feel comfortable starting him after looking so poor with his slider and changeup this year. I’d say he’s a wait and see arm vs. someone to trust out of the gate.
Thanks for the insight (and the list)! Love reading g your work!
Thank you for the list, it really helps with keeper selections for next year. I’m stuck between Woodruff and Fried. Why do you think Woodruff is top 15 if you don’t mind me asking?
Hey Justin!
Max Fried’s inefficiency with his repertoire led him to go 6.0+ innings in just 4 of his 10 starts (I’m ignoring his final one). I believe strongly in Woodruff’s fastball(s) as a better foundation, carrying a similar ceiling with a better floor.
I love your work and approach Nick!
I am a big Max Fried fan. Based on what I have read from you and others, going into 2019 Fried had a plus plus curve and a great fastball. The curve didn’t tunnel too well though. Coming out of 2019 emerged a league average to plus slider. My head is stuck on the notion now that due to his tunnelling issues, Fried’s best pitch has basically become his third pitch. That sounds bad… but it’s an amazing strategy. Fried tries to get folks out with fastball-slider and if that doesn’t work the curve comes out later in the count. Now that batters don’t get a good look at the curve early in the count, the tunnelling issue isn’t so much of a big deal anymore. We saw this approach work wonderfully in 2020.
I say this because I think this strategy is leading to the inefficiency you noted. However this isn’t the kind of strategy that has a low ceiling – if Fried’s skills improves in any shape or form, he gets better. Now hoping for an improvement is not a strategy, but unlike other pitcher he can improve in any facet and his strategy will reap the rewards – whereas most other guys need to work on one thing … control, a better third pitch etc. To use a poker analogy, Fried has so many “outs” to improve the odds of him moving ahead of other pitchers are in his favour.
For me the only thing stopping him from being a top ten pitcher In 2021 is play off wear and tear.
Thanks man!
I’m not sure I see it the same way you do with Fried. In a given game, he’s hoping that either his slider or curveball can be the #2 pitch to earn strikes/whiffs. His curveball is more erratic than his slider and even when the slider does step forward, his fastball command goes in and out. It makes for a low overall IPS relative to the elites, while his strikeout rate and overall SwStr can’t get over the hump either.
Fried’s skills could certainly improve, the one area that’s hardest to grow is overall command, though, and if I were to bank on Fried taking a step there, it would be unfair to not give that bump to many others around him.
There’s a chance for essentially all pitchers within the top 40 to turn into a Top 10 arm, FWIW, and I have Fried this low given that he has a harder path to get there.
No mention of Marcus Stroman?
…man, how did I leave him off too?
Thanks a lot, he’s there now :)
Any thoughts on Ohtani?
I don’t expect him to pitch next as he transitions into a hitter given his arm troubles.
I’d LOVE to be wrong about this, but given his array of arm trouble, it seems like that may be where the conversation is going.
Good point, though, and I’ll add a note for him if he does return.
Chris Bassitt => Rodney Dangerfield
Last 3-4 years of stats stellar, and yet no respect.
His ceiling is capped with an approach that is sinker heavy (read: low strikeouts with a sub 10% SwStr) and I don’t like the fact that he’s ultra reliant on that pitch without much else standing out in his repertoire.
He’s yet to hold a SIERA under 4.40 for a season and while his 2.29 ERA is lovely this year, banking on an 86% LOB rate and 8.6% HR/FB rate may come back to bite you in a longer season.
Bassitt is essentially a solid Toby, though, and while he’s welcome on my fantasy squads, I’d prefer to take a gamble on strikeout arms that could return the same ratios. I’m willing to bet you’ll find a handful of arms off the wire to replicate Bassitt during the year if you really need it.
Could you please compare Means with Kikuchi and why you are very optimistic on Means but not Kikuchi? Both have big velo gains from left side, while one pitches in Baltimore/AL East and the other in Seattle.
Kikuchi’s command was all over the place and led to a ton of volatility. He needs his cutter to earn whiffs + get his four-seamer up and it was rare to see both.
Means also had turmoil, but after a ton of rhythm interruptions, including a 12-day gap between starts following his father’s passing, he was locked in by the end.
In short, I see Means’ late-season games as more sustainable for 2021 while Kikuchi is more of a work in progress.
thanks!!
No mention of Odorizzi, Akin, Dobnak? Are they worth consideration?
Just added them all to the fringe! Thanks Izzy. So many pitchers in the fringe…
Odorizzi is the biggest one to consider, though with his recent injury history (albeit, a blister at the end) + his FA winter, I do wonder how much value he’ll actually have next year. Could certainly be in the 70s or so in February if it all goes well.
Why don’t you just give us a top 200, Pollack? What else do you got to do in your Stat Bunker?
Ha! Prepare for Pitcher List 6.0 of course :)
I’ve been reading your articles for the past 3 years and always look forward to them. I remember you used to always somewhat hate on Bieber saying his fastball was too hittable and he’d be throwing meatballs down the plate. Judging by his ranking, that opinion has changed? Is his fastball better or is his pitch mix better?
That’s super touching, thanks man!
Yep, Bieber has commanded his fastball better to nibble more often, but he also drastically changed his approach to through fewer of them, while improving his secondary pitches massively. His curveball has become a major whiff pitch, he added a super-effective cutter, and his slider still misses a ton of bats.
All of it has turned him into this beast.
Max Fried just dominated the Dodgers. Is he going to stay at 27? He looked like an ace.
If we assume innings are going to be lower, based on the fact that most threw between 60-75 innings, would this not increase the value of the guys coming back from major injuries? Specifically the big 3 guys? If they can get to 90-100 innings, they won’t be that far off from the leaders…
alex reyes? possibly back to the rotation, especially with hicks coming back, cabrera, gallegos, miller?, etc, carlos martinez and alex reyes are probably possibke starters even though cmart didnt pull it off this year.
Any thoughts on the SD (non Mac Gore) kids Patino and Morejon? Role a question for bothI guess.
Any thoughts on Nate Eovaldi? He seemed to have a fairly good year in a shortened 2020.
Yep, curious about Eovaldi too. Is he top 75?
Hey Nick! First time viewer. Was starting to do a little research and I ran across your page. Good Stuff! I play in this one league where it’s an all keeper league and we’ve been playing for like 20 years. We have 3 minor league spots, but most guys carry more prospects than that. Anyway…What are your thoughts on Aaron Civale? I notice you have him on the low end of tier 5. I have an offer right now to receive Civale for Emerson Hancock and Logan Gilbert both who are kind of high on alot of prospect lists. Just wondering your thoughts on this if you have time. I currently have quite a few young arms and prospects (Pearson, Luzardo, Kopech, J.Urias, Gilbert, H.Greene, Max Meyer and Asa Lacy with a few veteran arms like Ryu, Lynn, Montas and Syndergard.