(Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)
If you are a Jose Quintana owner, I know what you’re feeling right now after his 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks line against the Reds. Thats’s three straight starts with just 3 Ks – lowering his K% to 22.0% and a walk rate at a horrific 10.7%. Should you, dare I say, drop him? You can’t. You shouldn’t. 3.12 ERA over his last 11 with only three games above 2 ERs. 1.25 WHIP in that time as well and while the under-the-hood numbers point to an ERA closer to 4.00 in that time, we can’t ignore how I’ve given Quintana the TIARA. That he’s a vet with the ability to turn it around. I’m not saying 100% he will, but the possibility is higher for Quintana than others and that itself means you should be willing to deal with the middling production for now in 12-teamers. It’s frustrating and your relationship is damaged like me and my shower (I just CAN’T deal with the changing heat any longer!), but you just gotta tough it out.
Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:
Shane Bieber – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Bieber got the tigers, was our Call Boy, and was as dope as dope as gets. Seriously, 39/97 CSW with 18 whiffs. His slider was fantastic, earning 10 whiffs on 18 thrown, and suddenly my questions about a strong secondary offering from Bieber may be fading away. Please tell me the Indians are smart. Please tell me this isn’t a Clev situation 2.0 where somehow Tomlin/Plutko gets the starts despite being more boring than a meatloaf tv dinner as you watch a matchup of Alec Asher vs. Wily Peralta on a Saturday night. If you picked him up, awesome, hold for now until we get the full confirmation that he’s done. Streaming Record: 45-24.
Patrick Corbin – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 12 Ks. Velocity Schmelocity, am I right? Even with sub 90mph heat, Corbin had an unreal outing, earning 39 CSW on 102 pitches, with 25 whiffs to easily earn a Gallows Pole. His slider was absolute bananas, with 21 whiffs in just 46 pitches. Jeeeeez. I’ve been screaming sell for a bit, does this one start negate that? I honestly don’t think so. Probably makes it a ton easier to sell, and I’d still cash out.
Danny Duffy – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks. This shouldn’t have happened. But it did against the Astros and things are weird as it wasn’t even his changeup that did the work. Is this a Birthday Party? Yeah, I think it is, even with the good start not too long ago.
Dallas Keuchel – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Keuchel did well against a bad team. Unfortunately it doesn’t mean much of anything.
Ivan Nova – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. Ivan went Super Nova as we were reminded over what can happen when things go right for him. Too bad it’s super rare, fitting for the phrase n all.
Ryne Stanek – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. It was Yarbrough, y’all. He didn’t go four innings but got a Win so he’s got that going for him.
Alex Cobb – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. I have a Birthday Party, but I want something that is a little more consistent. This here is a Werewolf, which shows up once in a Full Moon. At least he’s not a swearwolf.
Jack Flaherty – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 13 Ks. Mmmmmm Flaherty is so lovely. 2.50 ERA now with a 22.5% K-BB. Stupid good. It’s too bad that he gets the Indians, @Arizona, @Giants in the next three. I know we want to be confident in Cleveland, I have a bad feeling that now we’ll get burned a little. I’d still start him in nearly all scenarios, but if you’re counting starts will many good options, I might not take the leap, believe it or not.
Jon Gray – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 12 Ks. This. This is hilarious. Seriously. Even with an incredible start like this, you still don’t feel good starting Gray. Roll with it if you want, you know the floor, but my gut is telling me to quickly write this off as Blame It On The Marlins.
Junior Guerra – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks. Atta boy Guerra, 32 CSW in 102, but just 11 splitters from Guerra and 3 whiffs. Sliders weren’t much better at 2/17. Without strong secondary pitches, it doesn’t surprise me he had four walks. He’s a Toby and that’s cool, play the matchups right and we’re good.
Andrew Heaney – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. I’m a bit disappointed in just six whiffs here as I’ve touted Heaney as “a command guy who’s getting whiffs.” Toronto should have returned better, but I’ll take it. For now.
Sean Manaea – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. He did a better job of elevating here against the ChiSox and I’m pretty happy with this one. It is a terrible offense, so not much stock should be put in this, but he gets the Tigers and Padres next and that’s lovely.
Mike Minor – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Always nice to see Minor do well, this was the Twins and I can’t put stock in Minor right now. Don’t give up on the second half, just do nothing for now.
Sean Newcomb – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. I mean, this is good, it’s just three Ks against the Orioles are super suspect. Six whiffs between changeups and curveballs in 44 pitches. Meh.
CC Sabathia – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. CC has a 3.18 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. It’s crazy and you keep going with it. He is a bit of a TEEs, but it regresses to about 3.80/3.90 and that still gives you value.
Zach Eflin – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. I want to see him go longer, but at least it was against the Nats. Solid. Still don’t trust him enough in a 12-taemer, but I’m curious.
Marco Estrada – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Yeah, I’ll definitely take this from Estrada. His changeup was…fine. Not enough hitting the bottom of the zone with the slow ball, but stay elevated effectively and that got results. Too bad he has a horrible schedule next and I’d let him go.
Clayton Richard – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. It’s the wrong Clayton! The Giants are a solid team and Richard didn’t care. I still hate him for 12-teamers save for those desperate in QS leagues, but I understand if you need to chase it in 15-teamers. You still have a good chance of getting blown up, but I get it.
James Shields – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Jimmy Bucklers did exactly what ole JB does: Make us shudder.
Chris Stratton – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Sure, whatever Stratton.
Alex Wood – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Beautiful. It was the Mets, but beautiful. Keep going.
Luis Castillo – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Okay, 29 changeups with 7 whiffs. I’ll take that. 21 CSW in 86. That’s bad. He’s struggling a bit with his heater still – just 95mph Castillo after 96mph recently – and while the WHIP and 5 Ks are cool, I’m not seeing a turnaround here.
Chris Bassitt – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. If you haven’t dropped the Bassitt yet, you make terrible Dub step. Seriously, you can tease us, but a week-long buildup?!
Mike Fiers – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. If you play with Fiers, you’re gonna get burned.
Lucas Giolito – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Sporer made the point that this was the second game of the doubleheader against the A’s, meaning the offense was tired after an offensive explosion earlier. That’s fair, it was til 4 ER, but that 8/2 K er BB is something curious from Giolito. This was also 35 CSW in 100 with 9/33 on slider whiffs. It’s nothing to invest in, but I am happy to see Giolito have confidence in the pitch and not walk the ballpark and their dentists. Just get that curveball working for the love of…
Fernando Romero – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Blegh. 24 CSW as his slider earned just one whiff on 30 thrown. Yikes. Kinda crazy to see him under 20% strikeout rate. Good news is that it’s the ChiSox, Brewers, O’s, Rays next. Stay strong.
Zach Wheeler – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. Wheeler was cruising through five frames, pumping 96.6mph ched – he even went 6/19 on splitter whiffs! – then the sixth showed up and it all fell apart, capped by a Cody Bellinger grand slam. That’s pain, that’s tragedy, that’s life. The biggest question is if Wheeler has that strong secondary pitch to pair with his massive heat, and for now the question is still no. Maybe that Splitter is it. Maybe he gains confidence in his slider or curveball. There’s still a chance here and I’d still consider Wheeler as a streaming option.
Wade LeBlanc – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. I’ve labeled LeBlanc as the ultimate Vargas Rule, though sending him off to repeat his incredible performance against the Red Sox may have been pushing it. I understand if you want to wait one more before letting him go, I think you’re safe to chase another arm.
Tanner Roark – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks. At least you got 7 Ks, but the descent of Roark’s 2018 continues. If there is a solid flier to take in a 12-teamer, I’d be all for it. He just doesn’t have enough upside for you to stay with this terrible stretch.
Wei-Yin Chen – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Nothing like some bad ole Chen music.
Steven Wright – 3.1 IP, 10 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. DON’T. TRUST. A. KNUCKLEBALLER.
Today’s Streamer
Andrew Suarez vs. San Diego Padres – It’s the Padres and Suarez worked against the Fish. He’s good enough to make this work.
Tomorrow’s Streamer
Dereck Rodriguez vs. San Diego Padres – I said he’d get the call again and it’s not like there are any other glaring options to go with instead.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Mike Montgomery vs. Los Angeles Dodgers – It’s 21%, not 20%, but this is all I got. We cool? I hope we’re cool.
Game of the Day
Clayton Kershaw vs. Jacob deGrom – It’s Kersh. It’s deGrom. It’s dope.
Jack Flaherty is Nola light?
Ha! Interesting idea, though I think they are a bit different in their style and mix.
I know it’s a small sample but I think there may be something to Mike Minor. I streamed him yesterday and did some research before picking him up. In his last 3 starts now his fastball pitch value is consistently better than most of his other starts. I believe I’ve read that Minor’s FB is among his biggest weaknesses, especially to righties.
Additionally, his fastball velocity is a little bit higher the last few starts than it has been previously. I’m going to hold him for his next start against the Padres and hope for the best.
Also I should note I’m in a very deep 12T H2H points league.
Great call on the velocity! Up to 93.5 and 94+ in his last two after sitting at 92mph and change prior. Could be all he needs to turn his fastball around.
Definitely something to monitor and I might look into this closer soon. Loving that stream against the Padres now.
Hey Nick! Need to get Hill of the DL for his game tomorrow: Who’s the drop? My staff is Sev, Corbin, Clev, Hand, Giles, Kela, Castillo, Flaherty, Fulmer, Maeda. Or do I think long term and just hold him on the DL until I have a better answer? My most droppable offense is Beltre.
I think it’s Maeda and Castillo. Probably Castillo, but it’s a measure of longerm upside (Castillo) vs more likely success in the short term (Maeda)
I traded Quintana and Matt Adams during his hot beginning of May for Nelly Cruz and I couldn’t be happier. I’ve kept drafting Quintana for the past 3 years in redraft and I felt like I kept getting sucked into his high innings more than anything else. His command is not what it used to be on the White Sox a few years ago. When he his walking guys this much, as he did the 1st half of last year, he’s not startable and not draftable at where his ADP was.
Hey, Nick! Our league has a weekly starts limit. I have one more start who would you choose:
Pivetta v. Nats
Mikolas v. Mil
Greinke v. Pit
Thanks for being so awesome and taking the time so respond to our random questions!
Hey Paul!
Sorry I couldn’t get back to you yesterday, had a busy trip in Denver!
Looks like you couldn’t go wrong here, if you chose Pivetta, good luck today :)
Can you elaborate why are you leery about Flaherty going forward in his next few starts? He looks legit and someone to trust. He’s handled a good Brewers offense twice, Cubs and Twins with great results. I don’t see the AZ or SF offenses as anything better than mediocre at best. The Indians offense can give the best pitchers fits. After 10 starts Flaherty has only given up more than 1 run three times.
Because it’s still a small sample size. He’s not immune to bad starts and I can see the scenario where we have more confidence than we should and he runs into trouble.
I’d still start Flaherty, but let’s not forget the context of his success.
Copy and pasted from the last roundup:
Cole’s ERA the last 30 days is 3.97. Walking more batters, giving up HR’s. Did he just start hot and is reverting to what he’s been the last few years? Worthy of a top 10 ranking still?
Hey PG!
I led with Cole in the roundup after his last start, I laid out all my thoughts there :)
I know he’s not in the writeup today but…where did Ross Stripling come from??? He’s ranked 35 on your list and he started TWO games for the dodgers last year. He not a spring chicken either at 28 years old. Obviously by your list your are at least somewhat of a believer. How is this happening? And do you see it continuing the rest of the season? It’s really pretty crazy.
It’s frankly pretty amusing after seeing a bunch of people wonder how long till you give Wright some credit then he blows up like this. There’s always the potential for a shutout or an unbelievably bad blowup.
You don’t like how CLE handled Clevinger? It led him to here. If they just handed him and his 5BB/9-ish walk rate a full time job do you think he would be where he is today? I would argue that CLE handled it perfectly.