It’s the final day of positional player rankings after going over the Top 25 Outfielders and Top 50 Outfielders earlier this week. Today we’re tackling the final 75 (well, actually 83), where you’re better off hunting for upside than drafting a bat that can easily be replaced on the waiver wire. Check out the Top 75 Outfielders for 2016.
TIER 5: Filling Out Like A Gym Rat (Continued)
51. Kevin Pillar (Toronto Blue Jays) – Leave it to the Blue Jays to have such a good offense that even guys at the bottom of their lineup can score more than 75 Runs in a season. Pillar’s defensive abilities are well documented, as his above average ability to swipe bags and double-digit power get swept under the rug. I don’t see much of a difference from 2015 heading our way, which makes Pillar a decent option if you need a little more speed without completely sacrificing counting stats and power.52. Denard Span (San Francisco Giants) – Injuries are the biggest issue for Span, but if he stays healthy in the Giants lineup, I could see him being a solid sleeper in most formats. He’ll hit first for the Giants, meaning the Runs will be plentiful, and he could hint at 20 swiped bags after he got surgery last season on his hip. He featured an excellent .365 OBP that will help him increase his opportunities, and a breakout season may be coming as long as he stays in the lineup.
replace
53. Jorge Soler (Chicago Cubs) – Ho boy, Soler has a ton of potential – 27.8% LD rate! – but jeez, that a 30.0% K rate supported by a poor 67.8% contact rate is not pretty at all. There’s plenty of upside in Soler, and hey, we’ve seen guys have their bumps during a full season introduction to the majors, so don’t count him completely out if you’re considering him past the 15th round. He can make a big impact if he figures it out.
54. Matt Holliday (St. Louis Cardinals) – Holliday took a holiday (WOW WHAT A GREAT PUN) last year as a hamstring injury sidelined him for half of the season. Matty should rebound a bit in 2016 as he still gets on base at a fantastic clip (.394 OBP last year), but his sturdy pop may settle in the high teens.
55. Alex Gordon (Kansas City Royals) – If you’re still looking for an OF option that isn’t going to kill you, Gordon will fit the bill. High teens in dingers, a handful of steals and above average counting stats inside a good Royals lineup. Don’t expect a BA better than .275 with his strikeout rate, though.
56. Khris Davis (Oakland Athletics) – On one hand you have a guy that would have touched 30+ HRs last season had he not required season ending knee surgery, then you also have a guy heading to Oakland from Milwaukee and struck out 27.7% of the time. He needs to be considered just for his power upside, but there isn’t much else to get excited about here.
57. Ben Zobrist (Kansas City Royals) – I went over Ben Zobrist in last week’s Top 20 Second Basemen For 2016.
TIER 6: Hidden Trove
58. Steven Souza (Tampa Bay Rays) – Now’s the time for some intriguing upside guys who could be a major factor or wither on the wire. Souza has 20/20 upside in him, but his weakness lies in a terrible strikeout rate that simply decimates his average. I’d imagine if he can get the…I can’t look at it…33.8% strikeout rate to crawl beneath 30% and hopefully come down to 25%, and mixed with his solid walk rate (10.8% in 2015), Souza could get on base enough to steal bags and tally up the Runs. He simply needs to focus on making more contact and the rest will follow.
59. Wil Myers (San Diego Padres) – Is Myers a post-hype sleeper? Maybe. Maybe not. Things are weird, okay? In his shortened 2015, Myers was able to cut his strikeout rate and raise his walk rate, while on pace for about a 20/12 season. Nothing was too out of the ordinary, and seemed that his .302 BABIP could rise as he hit just 13.5% soft contact. Playing in San Diego won’t help, but if he stays on the field for the full season, he could return much better than his ADP indicates as it sits with a cold one past pick 200.
60. Josh Reddick (Oakland Athletics) – When you hit over 40% flyballs, it’s not tough to hint at 20 HRs, which Reddick did with just a 10.6% HR/FB last season. He flexed some speed as well with 10 SBs, but what really made Reddick’s 2015 incredible was a minimal 11.2% strikeout rate, helping him sustain a good .272 average. He sacrificed hard contact to do so (down to 25.2% hard contact), and his current approach makes his 2012 season of 32 HRs seem so far away. I wouldn’t be surprised if he performed right around his 2015 levels, with slight upside to improve if his hard contact rises.
61. Mark Trumbo (Baltimore Orioles) – Trumbo is a rather boring option as he’ll spend his time mostly in the DH or giving a few players rest in the outfield. You can expect 20+ HRs and decent RBI production, but that’s about it. The Orioles lineup will help his counting stats, but his average could fall below .250 and make you question how much longer you’re going to put up with him.
62. Marcell Ozuna (Miami Marlins) – The power is fantastic, but the Marlins felt necessary to send him to the minors last season, and he may still struggle to figure it out in the bigs. Still, you won’t find higher upside this late in the draft, given his impressive hard contact numbers and just one season removed from a 16.8% HR/FB rate.
63. Aaron Hicks (New York Yankees) – Playing time is the biggest issue for Hicks as he doesn’t have a starting job out of the gate. However, given the injury history of Gardner, Ellsbury, and Beltran, significant games may be in the cards for Hicks, and he could turn into one of your bigger steals of the draft. He presents true 20/20 upside and should see a rise in his .256 average with his speed as he holds just a 16.9% strikeout rate. Monitor the Pinstripes through spring training, and worse-comes-to-worse, he’s a decent bench bat for when he gets inserted into the lineup.
64. Yasmany Tomas (Arizona Diamondbacks) – Fortunately for Tomas, the snakes dealt Inciarte, meaning his spot in left field is his to lose, and the playing time may be what he needs to get into the groove that made the Diamondbacks sign him in the first place. There is pop in his bat, but he’ll need to hit more than 23.2% flyballs if we’re too expect anything more than 15 HRs moving forward. Considering he’s being drafted past 200, there could be value to be had, though it’ll take a change of approach to get there.
65. Stephen Piscotty (St. Louis Cardinals) – There’s room to grow with Piscotty, and he could be hinting at 20 HR this season, though it’ll be tough to match that with 10 SBs. I see him hitting around .280 or so as his BABIP comes down, while his Run production could make you happy as he’s projected to bat second in the Cardinals lineup. Piscotty is a nice addition to your team, but one that could conceivably be replaced from the wire in standard 12 team leagues.
66. Joey Gallo (Texas Rangers) – You know those guys like Girchuk, Bruce, and Pederson who have immense power but strikeout way too much? Here’s your Power KKing. It’s pretty remarkable how polarizing his numbers are from his short 36 game 2015 – 49.0% hard contact with a 31.6% HR/FB matched against a 52.9% contact rate and 46.3% K rate. Talk about all or nothing. It’s not certain that he’ll make the team out of spring training, but his immense power makes him a decent bench asset once he makes the club, especially in H2H leagues where you may need sudden power on a desperate weekend.
67. Domingo Santana (Milwaukee Brewers) – Here’s a mega power upside guy that no one is talking about. Santana crushed 26 dingers across the bigs and minors last season, and is essentially the Brewers’ replacement for Khris Davis. He still needs to work on cutting the strikeouts (33.2% K rate in his 52 game MLB stint), but finding 25 HR upside this deep in the draft is a rarity.
68. Marlon Byrd (Free Agent) – Did you know Byrd has hit 23+ HRs in three straight seasons? Problem is, he strikes out a ton and we don’t know what team he’ll play for quite yet or what role he’ll have. They don’t call it cheap power because it’s good in other areas.
69. Melky Cabrera (Chicago White Sox) – It was a step backward for Cabrera in 2015, swinging at more balls off the plate and lowering his hard hit contact as he hit four fewer HRs in 19 more games. He could rebound in a stronger White Sox lineup as he’ll retain his spot batting 2nd, which will keep the counting stats flowing. Not bad for a guy going past the #250 mark in drafts.
70. Carlos Beltran (New York Yankees) – He’s getting up there in age, but Beltran still managed to hit 16 HRs in 133 games last year without killing your average. He produces better than guys around his ADP when he’s on the field, but the biggest worry is him missing significant time again in 2016. Still, I’d rather have short time improved production than boring throughout the season.
71. Hyun-soo Kim (Baltimore Orioles) – Not much is known about Kim thus far, but he looks to have a good eye and a decent amount of pop that could translate to the MLB. He’s not as exciting as Park, but he may be worth an early flyer to see how he performs in the first few weeks.
72. Rajai Davis (Cleveland Indians) – Every year there are a handful of guys that can be picked up off the waiver wire if you’re hoping to catch up some steals over the weekend. Davis is one of those guys, who is the best of the lot given his current slot atop the Indians order.
73. Jarrod Dyson (Kansas City Royals) – So is Dyson, minus the whole “top of the lineup” bit.
74. Anthony Gose (Detroit Tigers) – And Gose.
TIER 7: We’ve Gone Too Deep
75. Aaron Altherr (Philadelphia Phillies) – He’s a guy made for deeper leagues as he expresses 15/15 upside with room for more, though his 25.5% strikeout rate leaves a bit to be desired, and could be a Souza-esque player with a .250 average. His near 10% walk rate dictates decent plate discipline, and he could be a hidden source of Run production as he gets a starting job for the Phillies.
76. Rusney Castillo (Boston Red Sox) – There was massive promise for Castillo last season – the Red Sox didn’t spend $72.5 million for nothing. But come on Castillo, a 63.5% groundball rate? How are we supposed to get any sort of power production from that? Now that he has a starting job in Boston, it’s possible he’ll take a step forward, but he isn’t indicating a major breakout, which means he’ll be more of a waiver wire add once he starts to heat up than a guy I target on draft day.
77. Kevin Kiermaier (Tampa Bay Rays) – KK is better known for his incredible defense than his prowess at the plate, though the soon-to-be 26-year-old showed some upside, slugging 10 HRs and stealing 18 bases. I don’t see him eclipsing those numbers this season while holding his middling ~.260 average, but you can do worse filling our your lineup in deeper leagues.
78. Andre Ethier (Los Angeles Dodgers) – He’s inconsistent and doesn’t provide the power he once hinted at, nor does he bat high in the Dodgers’ lineup anymore. If he gets traded there could be a spike in his value, but I don’t see much more than waiver wire fodder here.
79. Adam Duvall (Cincinnati Reds) – He’s a rookie with a ton of power, but has a major problem with strikeouts. Sound familiar? He’s fighting for an outfield spot on the Reds, and he could provide surprising pop if he gets an everyday job. Just don’t look at his average, I’m warning you.
80. Eddie Rosario (Minnesota Twins) – I initially wanted to rank Roasrio higher, but his 3.2% walk rate last season means he’ll be on base fewer, lowering his Run and Steal production. Still, he could go 10/10 with upside for more, which is something to consider in deeper leagues.
81. Avisail Garcia (Chicago White Sox) – There’s a lot of power in his bat, but he’s not making consistent contact, and when he does, he’s only hitting 26.7% flyballs, which will make it tough to get the impact you want from Garcia. He’s still young and could develop a better batted ball profile, though I wouldn’t bank on it.
82. Jayson Werth (Washington Nationals) – Age is looking like a factor as Werth raised his strikeouts and lowered his walks in an injury laden 2015. None of that sounds fun for owners, and I’d only consider him in deeper leagues or if I were truly desperate for middling power.
83. Cameron Maybin (Detroit Tigers) – He had a surprising season for the Braves last season, going 10/23 with a bearable .263 average, but it’s tough to see it being repeated in Detroit as he comes off the bench. His counting stats will struggle to surpass 100 and there’s little left to get excited about.