Top 100 Starting Pitchers Rankings For Fantasy Baseball 2023 – UPDATED 3/23

Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year.

It’s the weekend before your fantasy baseball drafts and I broke the usual tradition to get this article out just in time. Good luck!

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 1:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.

For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:

1. This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
2. We have two tables to review before the notes and rankings. First is an injury table that outlines where players would be relatively ranked if fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
3. If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week. Spring change: Because we do different things during draft season, I’ve included IL guys and one minor leaguer in this edition.
4. Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
5. Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. Tier 10 is likely going to underperform those in Tier 11 across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase Tier 10’s ceiling vs. settling for Tier 11’s floor.
6. I’ve made a decision to limit labels to just one label per player, with few exceptions for a second. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
7. The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.

 

Now let’s take a look at the pitchers I considered for the Top 100 but didn’t quite make the cut:

 

 

Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, as each week’s update will reflect the comments and findings from those daily articles. If you’re unfamiliar with some of the players listed, I highly recommend that you read my 45,000+ Top 300 Starting Pitchers from February. Many things will have changed, but the root of my perception of these players is outlined there.

Let’s get to it.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• Nick, how could you change so much from February when there haven’t been any games played?!
• The first edition of my yearly rankings are my best attempt to sort through my thoughts and feelings of every player, and what helps the most ultimately is putting them to the test in drafts. Weeks have passed and I’ve found myself leaning a bit differently on some players, especially mixed with spring training information, injuries, and playing time adjustments. Yes, there are things we can pull from spring training, like pitch development, velocity readings, and general rhythm.

 

• Very few changes early, save for shifting the order of Aaron Nola, Spencer Strider, Shohei Ohtani, and Luis Castillo. It’s no secret Castillo is a slow-starter and yet I don’t think I properly ranked him with that in mind. Meanwhile, Nola’s emphasis on a cutter is impressing me and I may have been slightly underrating the ceiling of Strider, if you can believe it.
• Once again, not much change in Tier 3, though I did extend it one to include Kevin Gausman, who I’m finally leaning more in favor of given his four-seamer and splitter looking as good as ever this spring.

 

• Tier 4 has some small adjustments. I’ve lowered both Alek Manoah and Zac Gallen to the backend of the Aces of Dubs – not a huge deal as I’m often just taking the SP who is available in the 6/7 rounds – as a product of their reduced velocities this spring.
• I also moved up Joe Musgrove back into Tier 4 as he could be ultimately missing just one start this season. We may also want to take it slow in his potential first start against Atlanta, but I don’t think that warrants pushing him into Tier 5.

 

• I’ve come full circle on Robbie Ray after he’s increased his velocity and introduced a splitter. We’re not back to the 95 mph days of 2021, but we’re in a far better state than this time last season and paired with a legit shot at 200+ strikeouts and 15 Wins, it’s hard to turn away from drafting Ray.
• I’m not exactly sure what to do with Carlos Rodón. He chucked 15 heaters in a bullpen today and will continue to progress, which to me means he’ll miss about 3-4 starts (he needs to ramp back up). Thing is, he should be elite when he does return and it’s up to you in the draft room to decide what he’s worth. I have him a tier above Jesús Luzardo/Clayton Kershaw who come with similar concerns but not the same ceilings, and the added benefit here is the extra roster spot in April – it’s the time of year you want to hoard as many potential upside plays, after all.

 

• I still haven’t seen the secondaries I want from George Kirby, but the situation and foundation are too good. Sign me up.
• I gave a small dip to Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes, and Lance Lynn, but that’s more about the other guys than against them.

 

• Tier 6 is…exactly the same, except for Chris Sale falling into Tier 7. Not a big deal, I just felt his efforts in the spring suggest he’s not carrying the same ceiling as the others.
• Speaking of that next tier, the biggest shift is Logan Gilbert coming out from the depths and into the Top 40. I’ve preached in the past about aiming for players who could go 180+ innings and carry 25%+ strikeout potential and despite Gilbert failing to find the right secondary offering to miss bats, I was ruling out the chance in my previous editions. Throw in a great situation in Seattle and he’s back at #37.

 

• Y’all already know by now, but I’m a huge fan of Reid Detmers. I’m a little disappointed he sat 94 mph (and not 95+) in Wednesday’s start, but his slider command is everything we want it to be as he earned 10 whiffs on the pitch. He’s primed for a legit breakout season and I’m taking the leap in drafts.
• I also recognize the dominance of Jeffrey Springs against right-handers is continuing, with a filthy changeup and excellent pitch separation with his four-seamer and slider. I wish he had a better approach against left-handers, but he’s improving his sweeper and it could all come together in-season. There isn’t as high of an innings total as I’d want, though (silly Rays), but he’s sure to help more fantasy teams than hurt.

 

• Hey you! Thanks a lot for taking the time to Reid read the notes. To thank you, I’ll let you know that we’re giving y’all $40 off PL Pro Yearly this weekend with promo code DRAFTWEEKEND – you’ll get our super easy-to-use draft assistant + our 2023 PLV projections, in-season fantasy & DFS projections, an ad-free website, Discord access, 10% off merch, and a whole lot more. Sign-up here.

 

• Don’t react strongly to the -3 ranks of Grayson Rodriguez, Pablo López, Charlie Morton, and Nick Lodolo – that’s because I had to raise Gilbert, Springs, and Detmers.
• I moved Dustin May out of tier 7 and placed Freddy Peralta at the top as he’s still healthy at this point in the year. I’m still incredibly hesitant to draft Peralta as I’m terrified about his shoulder and while it feels incredibly weird to have him as low as #46 given his ability, I feel a lot safer going after the guys in Tier 7 to sustain production throughout the year. If you want to be a little riskier in your drafts at this point, I can see drafting Peralta around Hunter Greene at #34. It makes all the sense.

 

• I moved Kodai Senga into the end of Tier 8 as I felt he’s primed to help your squads to kick off the season with the Mets’ cushy April schedule. I don’t believe in his heater as much as others do, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t an easy “cool, I’ll take Senga and be solid” arm.
• Tier 9 and below is where you’ll see the biggest changes to The List, which should make sense to you, the sensible Pitcher List reader, as all I put a heavy emphasis on upside and early performance – Spring Training provides a whole lot of help sifting through the back-end of drafts for both of those factors.

 

• I did adjust a bit for some of the safer guys, though. Luis Garcia has moved up, alongside the fun Jameson Taillon (he gets Milwaukee early and features a new breaker), the 96+ mph Nathan Eovaldi, new slider-sporting Alex Cobb, and Mr. 94+ mph Sean Manaea.
• I had no choice but to lower Hunter Brown as we wait to hear more about his stiff back, while Kenta Maeda hasn’t impressed me as much as I’d like this spring. I still like the former, just not quite as much as the other safe options.

 

• Tier 10 is a small guy, reserved for the pitchers I’m not chasing but recognize as decent plays early in the year. Patrick Sandoval’s history of atrocious WHIP marks scares me a bit too much, while Kyle Wright has already received a cortisone shot for his barking shoulder. As if you needed another reason to question the success of Wright following a season of a really good curveball and not much else.
• Jon Gray and Jack Flaherty are also in this tier. Gray doesn’t pack a whole lot more than a wicked slider and decent fastball, the latter of which held just a 9% SwStr when it sat 96+ mph last year. Not great. Meanwhile, Flaherty’s slider is struggling to get whiffs this spring and his velocity is still a tick down from when he excelled in the past. I’m worried his shoulder is preventing him from being his old self and I’d rather chase other options.

 

• Tier 11 is a whole lot of fun. I found myself in favor of chasing these arms in the late rounds of the draft as great options for the start of the year. If they pan out, awesome! If not, I can make an early decision and move on.
• Take Jared Shuster, for example. I expect him to get the #5 spot for Atlanta over Dylan Dodd (if Dodd gets it, you can place him at the same spot on The List and with his fantastic slider/changeup combo from the left side, he’s debilitating RHB with ease. Mix in a great situation in Atlanta and you have a potential breakout arm.

 

• there’s a lot more than Shuster here. Garrett Whitlock may need a start or two to ramp up (IL spot!), but I love his skillset that can outline a legit command arm with a 25%+ strikeout rate. Matthew Boyd is looking like his 2019 self with his velocity and slider, Hayden Wesneski has the #5 spot for Chicago and sports a solid cutter & sinker foundation to let his elite breaker demoralize, and Trevor Rogers has executed a lovely BSB lately with four-seamers up and changeups down. I am slightly worried about his velocity dip and lack of sliders lately though…
• I wish I could believe that Edward Cabrera can consistently get strikes with his heaters, but it remains to be seen.

 

• I want to be more in on Michael Kopech, but he hasn’t been the man I wanted him to be this spring, making it a tougher call to draft him out of the gate. Even with an apparently successful knee surgery, Kopech hasn’t been able to reclaim his lost velocity and find consistency with his breakers. I’d rather chase others at the moment.
• Tier 12 is the place to find security if that’s what you prefer instead of Tier 11. I was initially concerned about José Urquidy’s velocity dip, but he’s back to 93 mph and in a good situation with Houston. The question of longevity is still there as he figures out his arsenal, but he’s relatively safe later in your drafts.

 

• You can’t go wrong with Carlos Carrasco as he gets the lowly Marlins to begin his 2023 campaign. Zach Eflin could be in a perfect situation with the Rays, Tyler Anderson may be a Toby in the end with his elite changeup, and Marcus Stroman may make a habit of six frames for a solid Cubs team.
• David Peterson and Steven Matz are often overlooked arms who could provide some legit value this year. Peterson has a great opening schedule and a filthy slider, while Matz’s skillset outlines a solid ratio floor with decent strikeout upside – just consider benching him against Atlanta in the first week.

 

• I’m sorry Tony Gonsolin – I was already out on you and now you’re missing the start of the season with an ankle injury. I had no choice to drop you to #82.
• Tier 13 is back to the upside boyz and despite the tough situation in Cincinnati, Graham Ashcraft has flashed some promise I hope sticks this season (he just fanned ten Wednesday evening). I worry that his cutter/slider/sinker approach is ultimately too hittable, but he could be displaying new skills out of the gate that we haven’t been able to monitor this spring.

 

• I’m just as surprised as you are but Yusei Kikuchi has continued to rack up the whiffs in every spring start this year and I can’t ignore it. Maybe his new slider and heater are actually legit in some way here and he could be the talk of the town in early April…or fall flat on his face.
• Eduardo Rodriguez has been sitting two ticks up at 93 mph this spring and I’m curious if he can be the man we wanted him to be this time last season.

 

• Lots of other interesting names here. Spencer Turnbull has been solid this spring and may be a four-seamer/slider machine, Ross Stripling still has his great changeup, and Domingo Germán has a rotation spot for the Yankees with a good curve and moments with increased velocity.
• The back half of this tier is filled with guys I’m avoiding, though. Kyle Bradish doesn’t get enough out of his slider and curve (the fastballs are blegh), Noah Syndergaard’s velocity is down and the slider isn’t missing bats, Tyler Mahle is still down in velocity (91/92 mph last two games), and Justin Steele isn’t succeeding with his heater.

 

• The final tier has a few guys of intrigue and others of safety. I have no interest in spinning the José Berríos wheel, but it’s certainly possible The Great Undulater has himself a season reminiscent of better days.
• Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo are both in a great situation starting for the Padres and could be sneaky add for Wins and solid ratios at the end of your drafts.

 

• I’m not sure exactly what to make of Aaron Civale, but if he’s going 65%+ cutter and curve, there’s legit production to be had here if you pick your spots.
• Drey Jameson has the #5 spot for the Diamondbacks and it’s possible his four-seamer/sinker do enough to let his slider thrive. Brandon Pfaadt sticks on The List despite his demotion as he’s the #1 SP staff in my view. It’s up to you to decide if you want to use the roster on him (I’m guessing ETA by May 1st) or someone else.

 

• Lastly, I nearly had Mitch Keller and Roansy Contreras on The List, but I think there’s too much volatility to deal with while pitching for a poor offense. Keller hasn’t put it together with his slider, while Contreras’ four-seamer is far from as good as it needs to be (sub 95 mph).
• The #100 this week goes to Clarke Schmidt, who has the #5 spot for the Yankees with Carlos Rodón on the mend. Schmidt flashed legit promise last week when he tossed over 40% sliders, but stumbled on Wednesday evening – if he was able to maintain the rhythm of last week, he’d have a case to sit in the 11th tier. It’s still up in the air what we’ll see in that first start of the year, but there’s a chance he excels and holds onto that role over Germán when Rodón returns.

 

• March 25th update: I’ve lowered Luis Severino down to just inside the TOp 50 with the news that he’s dealing with a lat injury. We don’t know the severity yet and it’s simply too risky right now to chase instead of the other stable options.

 

 

SCROLL BACK UP AND READ THE NOTES

 

(Good luck drafting!)

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Gerrit ColeT1	Aces Gonna Ace	-
2	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace	-
3	Sandy Alcantara	Aces Gonna Ace	-
4	Shane McClanahan T2	Aces Gonna Ace	-
5	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace	-
6	Justin Verlander	Aces Gonna Ace	-
7	Aaron Nola	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
8	Spencer Strider	Aces Gonna Ace	+2
9	Shohei Ohtani	Aces Gonna Ace Playing Time Question	-
10	Luis Castillo	Aces Gonna Ace	-3
11	Jacob deGrom T3	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-
12	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-
13	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-
14	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace	-
15	Cristian Javier	Aces Gonna Ace	-
16	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
17	Julio Urías	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
18	Dylan Cease T4	Aces Gonna Ace	-
19	Yu Darvish	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
20	Shane Bieber	Aces Gonna Ace	+2
21	Joe Musgrove	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	+3
22	Alek Manoah	Aces Gonna Ace	-3
23	Zac Gallen	Aces Gonna Ace	-2
24	Robbie Ray T5	Ace Potential	+6
25	Carlos Rodón	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-2
26	George Kirby	Ace Potential	+3
27	Framber Valdez	Ace Potential	+1
28	Nestor Cortes	Ace Potential	-2
29	Lance Lynn	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-2
30	Jesús Luzardo T6	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+1
31	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	+1
32	Blake Snell	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+1
33	Hunter Greene	Ace Potential	+1
34	Logan Webb	Ace Potential	+1
35	Chris Sale T7	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+1
36	Logan Gilbert	Ace Potential	+10
37	Joe Ryan	Ace Potential	+1
38	Lucas Giolito	Ace Potential	-1
39	Jeffrey Springs	Ace Potential	+6
40	Reid Detmers	Ace Potential	+7
41	Pablo López	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-1
42	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-1
43	Nick Lodolo	Ace Potential	-1
44	Freddy Peralta T8	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+4
45	Drew Rasmussen	Ace Potential	-1
46	Dustin May	Ace Potential	-3
47	Luis Severino	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-22
48	Chris Bassitt	Ace Potential	+2
49	Kodai Senga	Ace Potential	+3
50	Jordan Montgomery T9	Ratio Focused	+3
51	Luis Garcia	Ratio Focused	+9
52	Andrew Heaney	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+5
53	Brady Singer	Cherry Bomb	+8
54	Jameson Taillon	Quality Starts	+10
55	Nathan Eovaldi	Cherry Bomb	+14
56	Alex Cobb	Cherry Bomb	+14
57	Hunter Brown	Ace Potential Playing Time Question	-6
58	Sonny Gray	Strikeout Upside	+1
59	Tyler Glasnow	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-3
60	Kenta Maeda	Ace Potential	-6
61	Sean Manaea	Strikeout Upside	+15
62	Grayson Rodriguez	Ace Potential Stash Option	-23
63	Patrick Sandoval T10	Cherry Bomb	+5
64	Jon Gray	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+1
65	Kyle Wright	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+2
66	Jack Flaherty	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-4
67	Jared Shuster T11	Strikeout Upside	+UR
68	Garrett Whitlock	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+16
69	Hayden Wesneski	Strikeout Upside	+5
70	Matthew Boyd	Strikeout Upside	+5
71	Trevor Rogers	Strikeout Upside	+2
72	Edward Cabrera	Strikeout Upside	+6
73	Michael Kopech	Injury Risk Cherry Bomb	-18
74	José Urquidy T12	Toby	+22
75	Steven Matz	Ratio Focused	+7
76	Carlos Carrasco	Cherry Bomb	+11
77	David Peterson	Strikeout Upside	+20
78	Zach Eflin	Quality Starts	-12
79	Marcus Stroman	Quality Starts	-8
80	Tyler Anderson	Quality Starts	-8
81	Tony Gonsolin	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-23
82	Triston McKenzie	Ace Potential	-33
83	Graham Ashcraft T13	Cherry Bomb	+2
84	Spencer Turnbull	Strikeout Upside	-7
85	Yusei Kikuchi	Cherry Bomb	+5
86	Eduardo Rodriguez	Cherry Bomb	+8
87	Ross Stripling	Ratio Focused	-7
88	Justin Steele	Cherry Bomb	-5
89	Domingo Germán	Strikeout Upside	-10
90	Alex Wood	Cherry Bomb	-2
91	Kyle Bradish	Strikeout Upside	-5
92	Noah Syndergaard	Ratio Focused	-11
93	Tyler Mahle	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-30
94	José Berríos T14	Cherry Bomb	-3
95	Nick Martinez	Cherry Bomb	-3
96	Seth Lugo	Cherry Bomb	-3
97	Aaron Civale	Cherry Bomb	-2
98	Ryan Pepiot	Cherry Bomb	+UR
99	Brandon Pfaadt	Ace Potential Stash Option	+1
100	Clarke Schmidt	Cherry Bomb	+UR

 

Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)