Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2022 Fantasy Baseball – UPDATED 4/3

We’re a little over four days from Opening Day (YES!) and instead of waiting to update my Top 100 Starting Pitcher fantasy baseball rankings until tomorrow, I elected to make a traditional update to The List a day early so everyone can view them in one large table before their Sunday night drafts.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00 am – 11:00 am EST Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream for The List.

For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. These are a little different today as we sit firmly inside the preseason. Please take note:

1. This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
2. For the preseason, I’m creating two separate tables. First, is an injury table that outlines what tiers I’m taking these players in my pre-season drafts and a second for what tier they’d be if fully healthy. It’s the best solution I could come up with to help ya’ll out.
3. Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
4. Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. Tier 10 is likely going to underperform those in Tier 11 across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase Tier 10’s ceiling vs. settling for Tier 11’s floor.
5. I’ve made a decision to remove all the labels that I struggle to maintain through the season to instead give each player just one label at a time. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
6. I’ve also made the decision to not mention Trevor Bauer. There’s too much of a headache for many reasons. Just don’t do it.
7. The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read them if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.

 

Let’s get to the tables. First is the injury table:

 

 

I’ve placed Lance McCullers Jr., Jack Flaherty, Shane Baz, and Chris Sale past Tier 8 for a reason—it’s the point in the draft where you can afford to take an IL stash and not miss out on a legit arm for the year. Take note of how your draft is unfolding and when you get to the moment where the other starters on the board don’t push the needle a whole lot, consider these injured arms.

Sooooo Lance Lynn’s injury news literally came out the minute I published this. I just updated him in case you didn’t see it before (7:40pm ET).

Mike Clevinger was placed on the IL earlier today and I expect him to not miss a whole lot of time, pushing him toward the top of the injured arms. In some ways, it’s better that he’s hurt – you can get a roster spot back while he ramps up for the year.

Now let’s take a look at the pitchers I considered for the Top 100 but didn’t quite make the cut:

 

 

Lastly, I heavily recommend you read my 40,000 words on All the Top 224 Starting Pitchers for 2022 that I released in February. About 95% of it still applies and will do so much to help you understand the skill sets of everyone ranked here. Seriously, it will answer all your questions and it took months of work to put together. Read it.

 

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• Despite seeing the trees of green in the first 18 spots, it’s all a product of Jacob deGrom and Lance Lynn’s injury. Don’t think anything more of it.
• About Lance Lynn, he was removed from his Saturday game with knee soreness and while we don’t know if he’s hitting the IL yet, I’ve moved him down the ranks significantly. Expect his rank to shift when we know more later this week. UPDATE: I’ve removed Lynn from The List as he’s out until at least mid-May with a meniscus tear.

 

• After a few weeks of talking about how Carlos Rodón’s rank shouldn’t change with his new deal in San Francisco, I had a change of heart after shifting my philosophy to focus more on quality during the first half of the season & figuring out the rest in the second half. It’s led me to raise Rodón’s rank as our expectation is a high quality of innings but with a major question mark in August and September. And hey, maybe he holds it through the year.
• I also removed Luis Castillo from The List, bumping up Zac Gallen while moving down Blake Snell. Gallen looks good to go while Snell is a bit rough with his command currently.

 

• Clayton Kershaw saw a rise as we hadn’t seen him pitch in the spring before my last update. Looking healthy, he’s my 30th SP off the board – not the same level of ability as Rodón, but with similar concerns.
• It’s mostly the same affair in Tier 6 as well. I gave Eduardo Rodríguez a small bump over Nathan Eovaldi as I don’t believe I was weighting Erod’s ceiling enough before. Meanwhile, Luis Severino stays pat as he’s sitting 96/97 in spring training with a good-looking slider as well.

 

• Tier 7 is where things start to get real. These notes may get a little bit long as the spring has brought some majors shifts as I try my best to determine where the cliff is of “worthy enough to take a shot on while not losing on legit value”
• About that cliff – it’s actually earlier because of how fantastic Tier 9 and Tier 10 are. Seriously, there are so many quality arms to fall back on later in your draft that allow you to take chances in Tier 7 and Tier 8. That’s how I’m thinking about this and please don’t just look at the number and call it dumb. There’s a reason, y’all.

 

• Back to Tier 7. I still like John Means given the humidor + the moved back left-field wall + he’s back to 92/93 mph velocity. I’ve given Luis García a bump as I’ve undervalued the possibility of his slider/changeup returning this year.
• Alex Wood also rises as he’s reportedly up to 93 mph from his 91.8 mph last year. That’s insane. You should feel comfortable starting Wood constantly early on.

 

• Meanwhile, I’ve been a bit hesitant to grab Ian Anderson as I’m becoming more worried about his control. I still believe he’ll develop that command of the zone in due time, but placing him inside Tier 6 was a bit too aggressive.
• Alex Cobb is apparently throwing 94-97 mph these days after sitting 92.7 mph last year. With that velocity to help mask his heater, there’s a whole lot to like there.

 

• Tier 8. Oh Tier 8. I wrestled with this a ton and ultimately, between my podcast with Sporer during the fireside chat & realizing the depth of “a step above a Toby, probably” pitchers, I’ve decided right at #50 marks the moment to start chasing for the ceiling guys. Do I expect all four to finish the season ranked higher than those in Tier 9? No, but at least one of them should. That’s the point – take chances, make mistakes, GET MESSY – because you’ll get quality arms later that’ll do just fine.
• So let’s start with Joe Ryan and Tanner Houck. Ryan’s four-seamer is up in velocity this spring a full tick, while the Twins are relying on him as their opening day starter. He’s ready for a ton of innings and I’m willing to gamble the slider will come through across the full year. As for Houck, I has a few questions to his slider’s strike rate, but the Red Sox seem to be leaning on him & if he finds himself holding a walk rate around 7/8%, you’re going to see great things.

 

• Then we have our two rookies who have turned heads over the last three weeks. Reid Detmers has a full repertoire in a fantastic curveball and slider, paired with a four-seamer he elevates with intent. There’s a whole lot to like here and with the pseudo-six-man rotation in the Angels, I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw 140-150 frames from Detmers this year. Get in on this.
• As for Matt Brash, his curveball is as filthy as they come. He also features 96 mph heaters upstairs and the strikeouts are sure to flow. Unlike Detmers, though, is a bit more inefficiency that may force him to just five innings constantly in Seattle. Still, the ability is too good to ignore and very much worth your pick.

 

• With that out of the way, Tier 9 arrives and is filled with solid arms, sprinkled with upside plays. I’m a touch worried about Sean Manaea’s 88-90 mph velocity (was 92+ last year), forcing him down a touch. I still like Jon Gray’s situation and Ranger Suárez should be fine in Philly.
• I did have to move down Marcus Stroman, Adam Wainwright, José Urquidy, and Jordan Montgomery. In short, I felt none of these had major ceilings to chase and while I don’t believe any will outright hurt your teams, they aren’t pushing the needle strong enough to encourage a pick over the rest.

 

• It may shock many to see the final four names in this tier. Nick Lodolo is the current #5 for the Reds, but may not make his first start until the 6th game of the year, or possibly a week later. I believe in his talent more than Hunter Greene’s, though, who hurls 100+ mph fastballs without the best command & still gets hit decently hard. Lodolo is more of a finished product and I’m excited to see him get his shot.
• The other two arms here are Jesús Luzardo and Tylor Megill. Luzardo has been not only sitting two ticks higher at 97 mph, but has favored his curveball plenty more and it gets me all kinds of excited. Megill has been sitting 96+ mph as well, and now will a clear rotation spot for the foreseeable future, I can see Megill becoming a major force with a strong fastball.

 

• Tier 10 is where it’s at, though. See, you just took chances on Luzardo, Lodolo, Detmers, and/or Brash, but you need some help early in the season. Well, here are your guys. Zach Eflin gets the A’s and Marlins to start the year, Nick Martínez has a rotation spot and looks like a solid arm to carve 5-6 innings constantly. Aaron Civale is featuring cutters and curveballs well and kicks off the season against the Royals. Sign me up for all of these.
• It looks crazy to put Patrick Corbin over Hyun Jin Ryu but hear me out. Corbin increased his velocity and is seemingly close to his 2018/2019 self. Given ample opportunity still inside that rotation, I can’t rid myself of the feeling Corbin figures it out this year. And if he’s struggling? Move on. As for Ryu, he had a whole lot of trouble across the board last year with diminished velocity is the rough AL East. I don’t have nearly as much hope he can turn into a legit #2/#3 SP again.

 

• Tier 11 is filled with red, but that doesn’t mean you should overlook them. Are you looking for a stash play? These guys have you covered. Aaron Ashby isn’t starting out of the gate, but once he does, he’ll shoot up these ranks – possibly into the Top 50.
• I like the long-term outlook of Josiah Gray, I just want to wait and see how his command develops through the year instead of trusting it in April. The fastball gets hit a bit too hard for my liking while he needs to earn a few more strikes across his two stellar breakers.

 

• Mitch Keller and his 97 mph velocity has sent a buzz across Florida, though I worry about his secondaries to push him into the higher tiers.
• With Noah Syndergaard throwing just 93-95 so far, I’m starting to lean he’s not worth the trouble early on in the season. Luis Patiño and Drew Rasmussen are also giving the same vibes, but I may be wrong about the SP treatment of the Rays for 2022, leading me to bump up Rasmussen to 81.

 

• Tier 12 is where the drop off truly hits and blends a bit with the final tier. We’re in legit replacement level now as all of these names aren’t guys I’d want to enter the season with on my squad. I’ve ranked Tier 12 and Tier 13 mostly “backward” – Tier 13 is filled with solid one week guys while Tier 12 is more for the full season. For example, Carlos Carrasco could get his slider and changeup back and soar up the ranks, while Tony Gonsolin could get his slider cooking inside the zone and become a strong arm for any team.
• Do I want to start most of these guys early? Not really, and that’s where Tier 13 comes into play.

 

• Tier 13 has the early week starters and you’ll be surprised to find some solid streams here. Check out Austin Gomber on the road in Texas or hosting the Cubs for his first two starts – not bad at all. There’s also the Royals who collectively get the Guardians and the Tigers (and Cardinals, sorry Greinke) and could perform well across both.
• Lastly, don’t forget about the Rays hosting the Orioles and Athletics to kick off the season as they could sneak in some decent innings + wins. That’s Corey Kluber and Ryan Yarbrough, and hey, why not some Taylor Hearn as he hosts Rockie Road?
• Quickly put, there’s some great short-term solutions for those needing a little extra help as they take chances in Tier 8. Go for it y’all and good luck your drafts :)

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Gerrit ColeT1	Aces Gonna Ace	-
2	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace	-
3	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace	-
4	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace	-
5	Walker Buehler	Aces Gonna Ace	-
6	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace	-
7	Sandy Alcantara T2	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
8	Julio Urías	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
9	Shane Bieber	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
10	Robbie Ray	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
11	Lucas Giolito	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
12	Charlie Morton T3	Aces Gonna Ace	+2
13	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace	+2
14	Joe Musgrove	Aces Gonna Ace	+2
15	Logan Webb	Aces Gonna Ace	+2
16	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace	+2
17	Freddy Peralta	Aces Gonna Ace	+2
18	Aaron Nola	Aces Gonna Ace	+2
19	Carlos Rodón T4	Injury Risk	+10
20	Alek Manoah	Ace Potential	+1
21	Trevor Rogers	Ace Potential	+1
22	Justin Verlander	Ace Potential	+1
23	Frankie Montas	Ace Potential	+1
24	Shane McClanahan	Ace Potential	+1
25	José Berríos	Ace Potential	+2
26	Yu Darvish	Ace Potential	-
27	Chris Bassitt	Ace Potential	+3
28	Dylan Cease	Ace Potential	+3
29	Zac Gallen	Ace Potential	+4
30	Clayton Kershaw T5	Injury Risk	+12
31	Blake Snell	Ace Potential	+1
32	Tyler Mahle	Ace Potential	+2
33	Pablo López	Ace Potential	+2
34	Luis Severino T6	Ace Potential	+3
35	Michael Kopech	Ace Potential	+4
36	Patrick Sandoval	Ace Potential	+4
37	Eduardo Rodriguez	Strikeout Upside	+6
38	Nathan Eovaldi	Strikeout Upside	+3
39	Logan Gilbert	Ace Potential	+5
40	Shohei Ohtani	Injury Risk	+5
41	Framber Valdez	Quality Starts	+5
42	John Means T7	Quality Starts	+6
43	Luis García	Strikeout Upside	+13
44	Alex Wood	Strikeout Upside	+11
45	Ian Anderson	Ace Potential	-7
46	Tarik Skubal	Strikeout Upside	+6
47	Alex Cobb	Ace Potential	+27
48	Sonny Gray	Strikeout Upside	+1
49	Joe Ryan T8	Ace Potential	+12
50	Tanner Houck	Ace Potential	+12
51	Reid Detmers	Ace Potential	+21
52	Matt Brash	Ace Potential	+28
53	Sean Manaea T9	Strikeout Upside	-2
54	Jon Gray	Quality Starts	+5
55	Ranger Suárez	Quality Starts	+2
56	Marcus Stroman	Quality Starts	-9
57	Adam Wainwright	Quality Starts	-4
58	Huascar Ynoa	Strikeout Upside	-
59	Triston McKenzie	Strikeout Upside	+1
60	José Urquidy	Quality Starts	-10
61	Jordan Montgomery	Strikeout Upside	-7
62	Nick Lodolo	Stash Option	+17
63	Jesús Luzardo	Ace Potential	+14
64	Tylor Megill	Quality Starts	+7
65	Hunter Greene	Strikeout Upside	+UR
66	Zach Eflin T10	Quality Starts	+7
67	Nick Martinez	Quality Starts	+16
68	Anthony DeSclafani	Quality Starts	+1
69	Steven Matz	Quality Starts	+1
70	Aaron Civale	Quality Starts	+18
71	Patrick Corbin	Ace Potential	+13
72	Hyun Jin Ryu	Quality Starts	-4
73	Aaron Ashby T11	Stash Option	-7
74	Bailey Ober	Strikeout Upside	+1
75	Mitch Keller	Ace Potential	+10
76	Josiah Gray	Ace Potential	-9
77	Noah Syndergaard	Ace Potential	-13
78	Michael Lorenzen	Strikeout Upside	-2
79	Luis Patiño	Ace Potential	-1
80	Drew Rasmussen	Streaming Option	+UR
81	Carlos Carrasco T12	Quality Starts	+10
82	Cal Quantrill	Quality Starts	+11
83	Tony Gonsolin	Strikeout Upside	+11
84	Casey Mize	Quality Starts	+11
85	Zach Plesac	Quality Starts	+11
86	Eric Lauer	Quality Starts	-23
87	Germán Márquez	Strikeout Upside	+10
88	Zack Greinke T13	Streaming Option	+UR
89	Kyle Gibson	Streaming Option	-2
90	Austin Gomber	Streaming Option	+UR
91	Marco Gonzales	Quality Starts	-1
92	Miles Mikolas	Streaming Option	+7
93	Dakota Hudson	Streaming Option	+UR
94	Adrian Houser	Streaming Option	+UR
95	Corey Kluber	Streaming Option	+UR
96	Ryan Yarbrough	Streaming Option	+UR
97	Kris Bubic	Streaming Option	+UR
98	Taylor Hearn	Streaming Option	+UR
99	Carlos Hernández	Streaming Option	-1
100	José Suarez	Streaming Option	+UR

 

Photo by Kiyoshi Mio/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)