While the Rays play musical chairs when it comes to who their closer for the day will be, Diego Castillo remains the only sure bet for high leverage work at the moment. Even though he’s only 27 years old, he’s been longest tenured Ray reliever and clearly has the trust of manager Kevin Cash. He’s had a small issue with allowing home runs this year, but for the most part has been his typical self, with 16.9% SwStr, 36% Whiff, and 35.1% K rates. He’s even brought his walk rate down to a very respectable 8.2% however that might be part of the reason why he has a career-low 13.8% CS% and career-high 35.8% Chase rate. Either way, those numbers don’t change much for Castillo’s rest of the season outlook, as I believe his 2.56 SIERA, 2.62 xFIP and.254 xwOBA to be accurate indicators of how well he will finish the season. Nick Anderson’s potential return next month may muddy things in the Tampa Bay bullpen, but the one thing that is sure not to change is Castillo’s value in SV+HLD leagues.
Notes
- Before last night’s implosion, Aroldis Chapman had allowed just one earned run over 23 innings of work. Last night’s four-run outing is likely an aberration, but it’s hard not to be worried about where his fastball velocity was last night, as he averaged just 96.5 MPH and he failed to get a whiff over nine total pitches thrown, as all four swings resulted in hits. It doesn’t sound like Chapman is dealing with an injury, but be sure to monitor his velo his next few times out to make sure last night was just a weird one-off.
- Ryan Tepera continues to dominate opposing hitters, and with other setup men struggling this time of year, it only makes sense for him to keep working his way up the list. I noticed Baseball Savant changed his “cutter” to a “slider” but it doesn’t really matter in the end as whatever that pitch is, it is flat-out nasty for the second year running.
- After being one of the more consistent relievers for the first month and a half of the season, Tyler Rogers has hit a bit of a rough patch lately. Over his past seven innings of work, he has allowed ten hits and six runs (four earned) with a 2/3 BB/K rate. Given he has zero strikeout upside, he has almost no value if he’s not giving you elite ratios or SV+HLD totals, which have predictably tapered off as of late (just three since May 18th).
- With no one team running away with the NL East race at the moment, perhaps both Yimi García and Brad Hand will wind up staying put at this year’s trade deadline. However, both teams still find themselves seven games back, and neither team has the roster to really make a playoff run at the moment. I expect both middling relievers to find themselves in setup/middle relief roles a month from now, hopefully in pitcher-friendly ballparks for their sakes.
- José Alvarado’s walk rate issues are starting to make him an unrosterable player for fantasy purposes, which is a shame given his immense upside. After walking just three hitters over eight innings in April, Alvarado has now walked 19 over his past 13.2 innings of work and now sees his WHIP at 1.62. Only two qualified relievers have a negative K-BB rate since April 30th, with Alvarado leading the way at -5.8% and Lou Trivino behind him at -1.6%. Another interesting name behind those two is Mark Melancon, who has a net-zero K-BB rate over that time span.
- Chris Martin was the only reliever to notch three SV+HLD’s this past week and was even in line to pick up a fourth in extra innings yesterday before eventually blowing the save. Martin falls into that low upside, high floor mold as he will usually give you good ratios to go with some holds. Yesterday was likely a fluke for Martin, and not something I’d be overly concerned about.
| PITCHER | TIER | INJURY (EST. RETURN) |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Anderson | 1/2 | Elbow (July/August) |
| Trevor Rosenthal | 2/3 | Shoulder (July/August) |
| Drew Pomeranz | 2/3 | Lat (late June) |
| Ian Kennedy | 3/4 | Hamstring (late June) |
| Julian Merryweather | 3/4 | Oblique (late June) |
| Michael Kopech | 3/4 | Hamstring (late June) |
| Corey Knebel | 4/5 | Triceps (July) |
| Jordan Hicks | 4/5 | Elbow (August) |
| Michael Fulmer | 4/5 | Shoulder (next week?) |
| J.B. Wendelken | 5/6 | Oblique (late June) |
| Ryan Borucki | 6 | Forearm (late June) |
| Pedro Báez | 6 | Shoulder (July) |
Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
Mark Melancon 20? He may not have elite stuff but he is leading the league in S/H and is the undoubted guy in the 9th for SD. Kendall Graveman is good, but are you really rating a Mariners workshare guy higher? Love the site, excited for the response.
Melancon since May 1st…15.1 IP, 13 H, 10 BB, 10 K, 4.65 FIP, 5.01 SIERA.
Now Graveman hasn’t been the same since returning from the IL, but I also didn’t know that would be the case last Thursday/Friday when I made the list haha. He’s likely just rusty, but the velo is down a bit so that is a little concerning.
Still, right before Graveman hit the IL, there was a three week stretch where he had 5 SV+HLD and Melancon had 6. I figure Gravemans K and ratio help could counter the possible extra SV+HLD Melancon would give you each week for now.