Every Saturday during the 2021 season, I will be posting a list of 10 pitching prospects to stash in redraft leagues. This is important, as I am solely evaluating prospects for their ability to impact fantasy teams in 2021—and not beyond.
The Rays continued their up-and-down charade with right-hander Luis Patino, which allows him to take over the top spot on this list for Week 15. Also joining the list this week is Red right-hander Hunter Greene, who has continued to look dominant this season despite command concerns.
The two losing their spots are Roansy Contreras, who is dealing with a forearm strain, and Jackson Kowar, who is reportedly transitioning to a bullpen role at least for the rest of 2021.
The rest of the names will look familiar, although I did some shuffling over this past week as well. All that gives us a considerably new look list as we continue to barrel toward the mid-point of the season, and eventually, the final few months where prospect call-ups could be aplenty.
Without further ado, here is the first look at the top 10 pitching prospects to stash in 2021 redraft formats.
(Note: This list went to editors before Matt Manning’s demotion, but since it looks like he is just getting extended rest before coming up after the All-Star break, I don’t recommend doing anything with him, especially after his strong start against Minnesota.)
1. Luis Patino, RHP, TB – ETA July
Rays right-hander Luis Patino has made six appearances in the big leagues and five in the minor leagues this season, the epitome of an up-and-down prospect. That makes him a little harder to truly stash, although those in deeper redraft leagues are likely just continuing to hold on to him, rather than constantly dropping and picking him back up.
That’s a good call, as Patino’s performance has remained fairly solid at both levels. His latest big league outing was a rough one, as he surrendered seven earned runs in 5.1 innings of work, but all told he is rocking a 24:5 K:BB ratio and a 3.76 FIP in the big leagues, although his 4.87 ERA is probably tough for those who roster him to swallow.
Still, Patino’s high strikeout rate, improved command and solid peripherals make him an enticing deep league option, and one worth holding in redraft formats with 14 or more teams. Those in quality start leagues may be less willing to give him a go, as his most recent outing was his longest of the season, but the talent is here for Patino to make an impact on fantasy teams regardless of what his role ends up being, and it seems like a very solid bet he’ll be pitching in the big leagues again soon.
2. Tanner Houck, RHP, BOS – ETA July
Red Sox right-hander Tanner Houck made three appearances with Boston earlier this season, throwing 10.1 innings with an excellent 12/1 K/BB ratio and five earned runs – giving him a 4.35 ERA but a far more palatable 2.32 FIP. All those appearances came in early April, and after missing six weeks with an injury, Houck returned to Triple-A Worchester in early May and has made five abbreviated starts while he builds his arm strength back.
The latest is that the Red Sox plan to use Houck shortly after the All-Star break, although his exact role is still unknown.
“He feels good. Everything went well in the last one,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said. “As you guys know, he’s going to be part of this at one point. How soon, we don’t know yet but he’s important for us and he will contribute.”
Houck is rocking a 4.08 ERA through 17.2 innings, and has only tossed four innings in his last two starts, finishing under that mark in his previous three outings. He does boast a 23:3 K:BB ratio, however, and it seems likely he will be a nice boost for strikeouts in a fantasy setting, regardless of what role he ends up filling for Boston down the stretch.
Houck was never a super highly regarded prospect, despite being a first-round pick back in 2017, but he rose through the minor leagues fairly quickly with very good strikeout numbers and less than stellar command. His three-game cameo in 2020 yielded an outstanding 33.3% strikeout rate and a 0.53(!) ERA, along with a 14.3% walk rate and a 3.25 FIP.
I don’t think his command is magically this good (a 2.2% walk rate is insane) but he does look much improved in this small sample, and at the very least he has absolutely filthy stuff – which makes the strikeout numbers look sustainable. As previously stated, Boston’s rotation could use some reinforcements, and while Houck isn’t going to come in and start posting quality starts until he is fully stretched out, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him back in the big leagues very shortly.
Houck may continue to get shuttled between Boston and Triple-A Worcester, but he is worth rostering in deeper redraft leagues if you have a spot, and could easily make himself a must-own in 12-teamers if he gets a chance to take the ball every fifth (or sixth) day for the Sox.
3. Edward Cabrera, RHP, MIA – ETA August
After missing the first few months of the season with an injury, Edward Cabrera is back and better than ever for Miami. He made two appearances in Single-A before earning a promotion to Double-A, where he has thrown 20.1 innings and posted a ridiculous 26:5 K:BB ratio, while surrendering just four earned runs in total.
I thought the Marlins were going to give right-hander Cabrera a look last year, but he ended up getting shut down with a mysterious infection while at the team’s alternate site. Nevertheless, the data before his shut down indicated his changeup was taking big strides forward, which paired with his 97 mph fastball and 55-grade slider make him a potentially very solid No. 2/3 starter type.
In fact, many scouts liked Cabrera’s overall arsenal even more than fellow Marlin Sixto Sanchez, with Cabrera’s slider showing more sweep. Both pitchers are afflicted with fastballs that, while very impressive from a velocity standpoint, struggle to miss bats and could impact their overall strikeout ability at the next level – something we’ve already seen with Sanchez.
Still, Cabrera has excellent stuff, solid command, and a developing out pitch with his changeup – and while Miami doesn’t have a clear opening in their rotation they did lose Sanchez and Elieser Hernandez, so it would not be surprising to see Cabrera fill in at some point as the season goes on. The Marlins have had plenty of success developing pitching over the last few years, and Cabrera looks to be next in line.
Those in deeper redraft leagues might want to find a spot for him early in the year, as the end-of-season results could be well worth it.
4. Nick Lodolo, LHP, CIN – ETA August
This season, so far at least, has seen a ton of pitching prospects who were on the fringe of top 100 lists have a lot of success (like Shane McClanahan, Alek Manoah, Hunter Greene, and Ethan Small) while many of the more highly rated pitching prospects (like Matt Manning, MacKenzie Gore, Triston McKenzie, and Nate Pearson) have struggled.
File Reds left-hander Nick Lodolo into that first category. Ranked outside the top-75 on most media outlets, including No. 77 on my top 100 rankings, Lodolo has exploded onto the scene at Double-A Chattanooga so far this season. Across seven starts, spanning 32 innings, Lodolo has posted a staggering 0.84 ERA with a 1.61 FIP, 0.78 WHIP, and a ridiculous 46:6 K:BB ratio.
In fact, outside of a 3.1 inning, four walk outing in his second start, Lodolo has posted six or more strikeouts with one or less walk in every appearance this year, while only surrendering three total runs. This level of dominance likely won’t hold all year long, but Lodolo is making quick work of the hitters at Double-A, and could be in line for a promotion to Triple-A or the big leagues before the summer is up.
A blister slowed him down in mid-June, and his last two outings have been short as the team builds him back up, but the biggest deterrent for Lodolo this season will be fellow Reds prospect Hunter Greene, who himself is having a very solid season (see more below).
Lodolo, 23, was the seventh overall pick in the 2019 MLB draft and was thought at the time to be a quick-to-the-bigs type of arm. The lost 2020 season obviously tempered those expectations, but had he participated in a full minor league season in 2020 it would not seem weird at all to have him debut this summer – much like we are seeing from fellow 2019 first-rounder Alek Manoah.
Lodolo is a sinker/slider pitcher with elite command and a burgeoning changeup, which should allow him to stick comfortably in the middle of Cincinnati’s rotation for years to come – although there are some questions about how much his strikeout ability will translate against big league hitters.
Still, Lodolo is a pitcher I could see coming up toward the of the season – particularly if he stays super hot at Double-A – and in deeper redraft leagues I’d be considering tossing him into a N/A slot or a deep bench role if you can.
5. Hunter Greene, RHP, CIN – ETA September
Lodolo is not the only Cincinnati pitcher knocking on the door of a big-league debut. Hunter Greene, the electric right-hander with a fastball that gets up over 100 miles per hour, was absolutely dominant in seven Double-A starts to begin the season. The 21-year-old posted a 1.98 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and a remarkable 37% strikeout rate before he was promoted to Triple-A, ahead of Lodolo.
He hasn’t had the same level of success at that level, posting a 6.23 ERA in four starts thanks to four home runs surrendered and a 12.8% walk rate, although his strikeout stuff continues to be excellent, to no one’s surprise.
Greene is very young, very volatile, and has dealt with injury issues throughout his career, so I’m hesitant to believe the Reds will fast-track him to the bigs, but with a non-competitive roster, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see the team do some selling at the trade deadline, which could make room for both Lodolo and Greene to cut their teeth in the bigs.
Lodolo is a safer bet to have fantasy relevance, in my opinion, but Greene is a lot of fun and earned the first Triple-A promotion between the two, so he could be first up to the show as well.
6. Daulton Jefferies, RHP, OAK – ETA August
After a very promising showing in spring training, where he posted a 1.50 ERA in six outings, A’s right-hander Daulton Jefferies saw his chances of winning an Opening Day rotation spot dashed by biceps tendinitis, which delayed him for the first month of the season.
He finally made his season debut on May 24 with Triple-A Las Vegas, and he started the season quietly excellent in the hitter-dominant Pacific Coast League. In his first six starts, Jefferies posted a 3.77 ERA with 20 strikeouts and just three walks before his two most recent outings, which resulted in 12 earned runs across 6.1 innings, ballooning his season ERA to 6.17 – although his 31:7 K:BB ratio still looks elite.
Unfortunately, even with a handful of injury issues throughout the year, the A’s don’t need Jefferies to come up and help them right away, thanks to strong performances from the back end of the rotation guys like Cole Irvin and James Kaprielian. That makes Jefferies’ overall timeline less predictable and could merit a longer stay in Las Vegas if he doesn’t rebound well from these last two outings, or if Oakland doesn’t ultimately need him.
Jefferies possesses plus command of a solid three-pitch mix, and could help fantasy teams plenty down the stretch if and when he does get called up. In deeper redraft leagues and/or AL-only formats, he’s not the worst candidate to stash on your bench while we wait and see how he progresses with bigger pitch counts in Vegas over the next few weeks. He may not be the sexiest, most overpowering guy, but he has the potential to be very helpful in the dog days and toward the end of the year.
7. Daniel Lynch, LHP, KC – ETA August
After a disastrous three-game cameo with the Royals to begin the season, which resulted in a 15.75 ERA across just eight innings – thanks to a horrific start on May 8 where he gave up eight earned runs without getting through the first frame – Daniel Lynch was sent back down to Triple-A Omaha to iron out the kinks. Some believe Lynch may have been tipping his pitches in that start, although the White Sox are known to crush left-handed pitching – so it may have just been a recipe for disaster.
Regardless, Lynch has not had a ton of success in his ensuing performances at Triple-A Omaha, where he now has a 6.38 ERA through eight starts after a 2.1 inning, eight earned run disaster on Thursday – although a 50:18 K:BB ratio is at least some cause for celebration.
The terrible big league start pushed Lynch onto the waiver wire and off the radar in basically all redraft leagues, but Kansas City could absolutely turn to Lynch again at some point this season, and now that he has gotten the debut jitters out of the way (and hopefully fixed any issues potentially related to tipping) Lynch could be a sneaky add in deeper redraft formats as a stash candidate, although you’d certainly like to see more consistency from him at Triple-A first.
The presence of fellow left-hander Kris Bubic, who is in a hybrid role with the big club, could be a hindrance for Lynch – although moving fellow prospect Jackson Kowar to the bullpen does give him a little more breathing room.
If he is able to string together a few nice starts at Omaha, don’t be surprised to see the hard-throwing left-hander back in Kansas City’s rotation by the end of the summer – but a few more clunkers and he’ll likely be fully off the radar for 2021.
8. Matthew Liberatore, LHP, STL – ETA August
Acquired in what is now known as the Randy Arozarena trade, Cardinals left-hander Matthew Liberatore spent his first year with his new club unable to pitch professionally due to the pandemic. That made it somewhat of a surprise when he was given an assignment at Triple-A to begin the 2021 campaign, a rather aggressive way to start his Cardinals career for the 21-year-old.
And indeed things were pretty tough for the top prospect out of the gate, as he struggled to a 5.48 ERA and 1.31 WHIP through his first four starts with a 21.2% strikeout rate and a solid 5.6% walk rate. His next four starts were much better, however, as he posted a 3.42 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with an uptick in his strikeout rate to 25.3% before another bad outing earlier this week brought his season ERA to 5.07. We’ve seen some good and bad from Liberatore, but ultimately it is clear the big left-hander is settling into his new digs.
In fact, St. Louis seems to have had a say in the decision to leave Liberatore, who is not on the 40-man roster, off the Olympic team. Cardinals beat writer Jeff Jones indicated that Liberatore is not on the roster in part because the Cardinals don’t have the organizational depth to lose him for a month:
As expected, Matt Liberatore is not on Team USA’s final Olympic roster. #stlcards simply don’t have the organizational depth to lose him for a month.
— Jeff Jones (@jmjones) July 2, 2021
This isn’t a guarantee that Liberatore will be up before the end of the Olympics (August 7) but it means St. Louis is prepared to add him to the 40-man before then if need be.
Liberatore has a big breaking ball and a ton of velocity on his heater, but still has some refinement to do with both pitches, and his fringier secondary’s, before he reaches his potential as a mid or even top-end starter. At just 21, it wouldn’t be crazy for the Cardinals to keep him down all year, or just give him a call in September, but you could do much worse than stashing him in deeper redraft leagues to see if they test him a little earlier than that. Clearly, it’s not something they are too afraid to do.
9. Ethan Small, LHP, MIL – ETA September
While his first start after getting promoted to Triple-A did not go so well, Small made things look much easier the next two times around around, throwing a pair of six inning shutouts with five total strikeouts, four walks and nine hits surrendered. He also absolutely dominated Double-A hitters across eight starts – posting a 1.96 ERA with a 2.17 FIP, a 1.14 WHIP, and a stellar 67:21 K:BB ratio. The promotion to Triple-A is of course a good sign for him making his big league debut at some point this season – and the struggles of fellow prospect Aaron Ashby in his big league debut could accelerate that timeline.
Ashby may still get the next opportunity, Milwaukee won’t punish him too hard for one disaster outing, but Small’s combination of improved command and strikeout potential makes him a very intriguing stash in deeper redraft formats, and a guy who could step in and contribute at the big league level right away – obviously what you are looking for out of a stash candidate.
Small does have a deception-over-stuff profile, which can turn analysts and fantasy players away, but there is little reason to believe he won’t continue to succeed as he continues to rise up the ranks – which could include some big league action before the year is up.
10. MacKenzie Gore, LHP, SD – ETA September
MacKenzie Gore’s saga over the past year and a half has been well-documented, as the Padres were unwilling to give him a call during the abbreviated 2020 slate and, so far in 2021, despite injuries to Adrian Morejón, Dinelson Lamet, and the missed season for Mike Clevinger, Gore has remained in the minors, paving the way for fellow prospect Ryan Weathers to earn a rotation spot in his place.
The latest news for Gore is even more troubling, as he is being sent to Arizona away from game competition to work on his mechanics, while also recovering from a persistent blister issue on his throwing hand.
Gore hasn’t done anything to help assuage any of the concerns plaguing him this season, posting a 5.85 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP through his first six starts at Triple-A, along with 18 strikeouts and 12(!) walks. Simply put, the overall body of work is indicative of someone who just isn’t ready to be in the big leagues quite yet.
Of course, we don’t just want to ignore Gore’s absolute dominance in the Cal League in 2019, which to me indicates he is still capable of being the true ace pitcher many believe he can be – it just is not going to show up in the big leagues in the year 2021.
Gore’s never been a huge power pitcher, relying more on deception, location, and his mechanics to get hitters out. But it strikes me as notable that San Diego hasn’t given him a look just yet, especially if he is suffering from some combination of command/mechanical issues and/or the yips.
He is just 22 years old and a former top-10 prospect in all of baseball, so he still finds himself on this list – regardless of the mystery surrounding his last 18 months.
Gore is no longer a must-add in all formats when he does eventually get the call, but he is a player I can see rostering in 16+ team leagues to stash on the bench while we wait for his arrival to the show. It is just not reasonable to roster him in 12-teamers right now, but if you have a watchlist and are hoping for a boost later this year, Gore should remain on your radar.
I’m not nearly as confident that Gore will be worth the wait when he does get the call – but he still has the potential to be a high-quality fantasy pitcher in due time, even if it’s not in 2021.
Added: Luis Patino, Hunter Greene
Removed: Roansy Contreras (hurt), Jackson Kowar
Graduated:
Others given consideration: Roansy Contreras, Grayson Rodriguez, Reid Detmers, DL Hall, Nate Pearson, Deivi Garcia, Shane Baz, Joe Ryan, Jake Eder, Clarke Schmidt
Photo from David John Griffin/Icon Sportswire | Design by Quincey Dong (@threerundong on Twitter)