The Right To Remain On The Wire

I’ve heard Ariel Miranda’s name been tossed around a bit lately and I can see many people wanting to pick him up after his stellar 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks starting against the White Sox last night – a team that he been well above average against LHP this season. Four of his last five starts have totaled just 5 ER, albeit with one horrendous 8 ER clunker in the middle like a horrible off-brand Oreo cream filling. You have some options here. Do you trust that Miranda, owner of an okay 9.7% whiff rate and 4.56 FIP, is a guy that can produce a consistent 8.50 + K/9 and sub 3.00 BB/9 with a 3.50 ERA? That’s essentially what I need from him in order to trust him on my roster. I don’t really see that. I think he can be a decent streamer through the year, but a roster spot? Nah. Give me a more believable upside arm or let me swim through the stream, free and super wet. Super wet? Well, yeah, I’m in a stream. Duh.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

Jose Quintana – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Boy did we need to see this from Quintana. Now, the Mariners are 3rd to last in the majors in wOBA against lefties, but for Quintana to deliver like this is huge.

Jacob deGrom – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Yes, he deserves the #4 spot on The List. I’m actually tempted to mark May 15th as the starting point for deGrom ROS and see where he is at the end of the year just to keep myself in check. In more important news, he formed a blister on his ring finger during this start, which means there’s a chance he gets skipped next time in the rotation (i.e. 10 Day DL). This year is so stupid.

Alex Wood – 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. And the Wood hype continues. It’s taking a lot for me not to drop a crude joke in here now, so I’m going to take the high road and say I’ll take stud pitchers for $200…Alex.

Taijuan Walker – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Here’s the one stat this is making me a bit skeptical of Walker. No, it’s not his 3.12 BB/9, nor his 7.96 K/9. 71.0% LOB rate? Nah. 33.1% Hard contact? Meh. It’s the 8.0% HR/FB rate. This has been an issue for Walker often in his career and his home park is in Arizona, which is notorious for being a HR friendly park. I just don’t see that sticking, meaning his 4.04 xFIP could be realized…and even worse as I expect Walker to have a worse HR/FB rate than league average.

Michael Wacha – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Am I not giving Wacha enough credit? That’s a 2.74 ERA with a solid 3.34 FIP and 3.63 xFIP as his .295 BABIP seems reasonable. Sure, a little luck with a 81.1% LOB rate but a smooth 2.53 BB/9 with a 8.23 K/9 isn’t a joke. IPS is above 6.0…hard contact at just 23.3%…the only thing holding me back in his strength of schedule thus far as he’s faced the Giants, Braves, Blue Jays, Pirates, Brewers in his last five starts. Next up is Coors + Dodgers and suddenly I’m scared again. Womp womp.

Chris Sale – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks. Aces gonna ace. For those calling for Sale to be #1 on The List, let me ask you this. Do you believe that entering 2018 people will be drafting Sale or Kershaw first? I find it hard to believe it would be Sale, meaning that when you’re talking about your first option as a starter through the year you want the highest floor with an elite ceiling. That’s Kershaw, not Sale. It’s unreal how good Sale is right now, I still believe in Kershaw to be a stable stud throughout the year.

Jeremy Hellickson – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. This season is absolutely crazy to me. Hellickson has a 3.62 K/9 and a 1.63 BB/9. That means he needs a .205 BABIP to have that 3.44 ERA. What on earth. Sell sell sell.

Tyler Anderson – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Ummmm, that’s 25 Ks in three starts for Anderson now, raising his K/9 to 9.19 with a 3.00 BB/9 and 3.63 xFIP. Two of those starts came in Coors against the Dbacks and Dodgers, while last night featured the Reds in Cincy. The difference? He’s getting plenty more horizontal ride on his Cutter and spotting his pitches super well, allowing just 14.6% hard contact across those three starts. I’m totally buying his next start in Philly and maybe even a home start against the Mariners as I’ve already mentioned their lack of skill against southpaws.

Nick Martinez – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Yeah yeah, Martinez pitched blah blah blah.

Ricky Nolasco – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. That’s a 3.34 ERA over his last six starts with a near 8.00 K/9. He’s needed a .255 BABIP and 91.5% LOB rate to make that happen, featuring a 5.18 FIP and 40.6% hard contact with just 11.3% soft contact. Yeah, it’s still fantasy irrelevant Nolasco.

Luis Severino – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. I think he could have gone another inning at 89 pitches, but he got the hook early and gave us a solid start with a blegh WHIP. I’ll take it.

Nate Karns – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. You have to be kidding me. Karns was doing Karns things and then left the game with a “forearm strain” as yet another talented arm gets SPOIL’D. This one hurts a lot since I’m sure many of you, like me, own Karns in your league now and it was an advantage we gained during the course of the season that is getting stripped away now. Let us hope it was fully precautionary and he doesn’t miss much, if any, time. Meanwhile, I’m obviously taking a dub here. Streamer Record 18.5-16-6.

Matt Moore – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. His last three starts have returned 17 Ks, a 2.89 ERA and…well that’s where the fun ends. 1.45 WHIP, 3.38 BB/0, 5.03 xFIP, and a whopping 44.8% hard contact. Nope, leave him on the wire.

Trevor Bauer – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Yeah, the ERA is terrible, but you don’t own Bauer for the ERA, you own him for the Ks! You got the added bonus of a solid WHIP today, woot!

Kendall Graveman – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. I’ve jumped off this boat and I think you should too for the most part. I don’t trust a good ERA/WHIP from Graveman given his limited repertoire and his Fastball command isn’t as good as should be for someone so heavily throwing one pitch.

Chris Tillman – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. You Can’t Spell Win With Tillman. Good to have you back fella. I actually feel like he has some value in 12 teamers, just at the end of your staff and against half of the teams he faces.

Erasmo Ramirez – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. With Snell in AAA, Ramirez is getting time in the rotation. This is a solid outing against the Yanks, though be warned – he still needs to ramp up his pitch count for future outings and this start isn’t indicative of what to expect. I’m staying away in 12-teamers, with possible value in deeper leagues.

Aaron Sanchez – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. I think we’re going to see Sanchez come into his own now after this start, which was awesome until Welington Castillo launched a 2-run bomb in the sixth. I think June is going to be a great month for so many arms – Paxton, Manaea, Nola, Sanchez, Matz – it’s going to be a weird time.

Trevor Williams – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks. 0 Ks in 17 outs? I feel like that is skill in itself. Amazing.

Paolo Espino – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Another year, another 30 year old rookie pitching for the Brewers. This has Cup of Schmo written all over it.

Eddie Butler – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks. Butler had horrendous command in this outing- it was a pretty wet game – racking up his pitch count quickly. Womp womp.

Daniel Norris – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Hey the Ks are back! Hey everything else is still way too poor for me to chase Norris!

R.A. Dickey – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Dickey told me he would allow 10 or fewer baserunners tonight. Don’t Trust A Knuckleballer.

Hector Santiago – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. And this is why we don’t invest in Santiago. There is nothing to salvage here.

Charlie Morton – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Okay, so the Indians are really good against right-handers but I still wanted to throw Morton out there last night. It’s a really weird situation because we have all these seemingly high upside arms out there with such small samples and it’s tough to decide where to place your chips. I’m not a fan of his next start against the Tigers, but then he gets the Twins, Rangers, Angels, Rangers again, Athletics twice assuming he’s all healthy and whatnot. That looks awesome to me.

Gio Gonzalez – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Remember when Gio was showcasing a sub 2.00 ERA through his first handful of starts? Fun times.

Justin Nicolino – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Don’t Pico the Nico. I guess that’s what I’m doing now. Meh.

Lisalverto Bonilla – 5.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. I wonder if Bonilla can actually be a commodity in deeper leagues this year. I think he can, but it may take some time. His stuff is better than your average Cup of Schmo, so keep an eye on this one.

Jered Weaver – 0.2 IP, 7 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks. You think you weren’t the worst today Weaver? THINK AGAIN.

Today’s Streamer

Zack Wheeler vs. Los Angeles Angels – Wheeler walked just one last time out and could return a solid all-around outing against the Halos.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Zack Godley vs. San Diego Padres – He’s still owned in fewer than 30% of leagues and he gets the Padres…too easy.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

JC Ramirez vs Tampa Bay Rays – He’s been a bit better with his Fastball command and the Rays aren’t scaring me. I’m also a fan of Jeff Hoffman’s spot start against the Phillies if you need another arm.

Game of the Day

Sean Manaea vs. Drew Pomeranz – Two high strikeout upside southpaws square off today and I’m really interested to see if Manaea can reign in the command problems a bit today. I have a feeling he will given his struggles last time were more apparent in just the first inning. We’ll see.