(Photo by Juan Salas/Icon Sportswire)
I feel like I need to talk more about Pablo Lopez who went 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks against the Yankees on Tuesday evening. I know his 4.42 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 19% K rate don’t speak to a guy to spend a whole lot of time on, but I think there’s something here. An 11% overall whiff should return a higher K rate, and it’s on the back on two secondary pitches each returning a 17%+ whiff rate (curveball and changeup). Pair that with a heater sitting 92+ that generates a lot of groundballs and I can see a consistent Toby – if not more – in future years. And maybe even down the stretch as he showed flashes of potential, earning 10/37 whiffs on secondary pitches. It’s not all polished just yet (his fastball needs to hit the edges more frequently + better integration with secondary pitches should help), but I wouldn’t be surprised if Pablo becomes a sneaky deep-league pick entering 2019 and could save a few people in September.
Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:
Brett Anderson – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Ugh, I know some people are going to chase Anderson after another good start from him, but it just isn’t going to last. Seriously. This is the first game save for his opening start on May 2nd that Anderson has held a double-digit whiff rate and it’s not due to a sweeping arsenal change. You will get burned.
Kevin Gausman – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. 31/103 CSW here as his increased splitter emphasis is still there. Better four-seamers were the answer, though, leading to 17 balls in play that found gloves. I think he got a bit fortunate in this one, but it wouldn’t shock me if Gausman gives you a solid 3.50 ERA the rest of the way and becomes a Top 50 SP pick entering next year.
Michael Kopech – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. This was such a fun start to watch. It was shortened by rain and if you missed it, definitely check out the GIF Breakdown here. The TL;DR is get him now as his fastball command was much better than expected. His slider will be great and his changeup showed a flash of plus plus potential. I’m much more hyped than I expected.
Brad Peacock – 1.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Hey, Peacock is starting again! But instead of stretching him out, they just used him as a False Start. Man, those were fun times last year when he was an actual starter. Real fun times.
Tanner Roark – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. A rain delay knocked out Roark and Velasquez as well, as Roark was looking like more of the same. Too bad, I would have liked to have seen if he could keep it up for another 3 frames or so.
Vince Velasquez – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Ditto with Velasquez. Just replace Roark with VV and we’re cool.
Nick Vincent – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. A False Start here in Seattle with nothing else to talk about here. Come on guys, I don’t love every starter named Nick.
Jose Berrios – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. You want a bit more from Berrios against the ChiSox, but considering his volatility, this is a nice relaxing evening we all needed. Now go out there and do good things. Note: Berrios also went back out there after the rain delay that took out Kopech, those delays are sure to affect pitchers.
Daniel Poncedeleon – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Very interesting start here from Poncedeleon as he pounded heaters up in the zone with changeups falling in for strikes (15/20 thrown for strikes!). I’m not seeing enough from his breaking pitches for me to really jump on this + he needed 90 pitches to get through 12 outs as he induced nearly 30% foul balls – guys were looking for the heater constantly. I think he needs to refine the secondary stuff before I really buy into it, but if Poncedeleon gets more chances, I’d consider him as a streaming option.
Blake Snell – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks. Aces gonna ace as Snell dominated the Royals with 41/101 CSW and 23 whiffs (Gallows Pole). The dude is so legit.
Masahiro Tanaka – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Even with the low strikeout total, I’ll take this from Tanaka as we’ve been wanting some stability from him. Keep letting him ride out there, of course.
Jordan Zimmermann – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Oh sure, the game against the Cubs is when you actually get some luck. I mean that, he induced an average 90mph exit velocity on 20 BIP in this one. Yikes.
Patrick Corbin – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Aces gonna ace as Corbin racked up another 18 whiffs here. Fastball at 91mph and touching 93mph today. This is very good.
Sam Gaviglio – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Our Call Boy had his way with the Orioles, though it came with about 31% sliders. That’s still higher than the season mark of 20%, but I want 35-40%, you know? He gets the Orioles again next week followed by the Marlins in a two-start week and I’d be tempted to chase it. Streaming Record: 77-40.
Junior Guerra – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Looks like Guerra was a bit Singled Out, but I do like that his splitter returned 16/29 strikes here. Only six whiffs, but 7 BIP at 72 mph EV is great. I think this was one of those games and don’t worry about it.
Kyle Hendricks – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Hendricks also got a bit Singled Out in this one and I’m a bit disappointed to only see three strikeouts after his recent K explosion. Welp, gotta keep starting him like a frozen car engine in the winter. Come on baby, we can do this. COME ON.
Steven Matz – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. It’s weird with Matz. I think he’s good at inducing soft contact, but I can’t think of him more than a possible Toby until I see better than 24/87 CSW on a given day.
Ivan Nova – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. This is as close to a Super Nova as you can hope for and you should be glad as he faced the Braves. It’s really a 50/50 if Nova is going to give you a digestible quality start on a given night, good luck predicting the coin flip.
Chris Stratton – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Hey, Stratton wasn’t terrible! Hey, he probably will be if he starts again!
Shane Bieber – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. He got the Sawx and we were all a little scared, but the balls went his way for the most part and you got a near PQS for it. I’ll take it.
Robbie Erlin – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Robbie, you might win the award for the random starter that people say “oh yeah, that guy” most often. Should I proud of this award? No. Definitely not.
Hyun-Jin Ryu – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. I think this helps people understand that Ryu is a Toby at best. And that’s totally fine, keep starting him when he’s healthy, but he’s not your savior.
Glenn Sparkman – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. With a name like that, you really want something electric from Glenn. There’s something about those five letters that really resonate with me.
Tyler Anderson – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. Great to see the whiffs back for Anderson, but 10 hits and 4 ER against the Pads is pretty blegh. But 37/99 CSW! 18 Whiffs! Yeah, I can’t hate on that. I’m willing to say this should have been better. So it goes.
Nathan Eovaldi – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Yeah it’s frustrating, but that’s Eovaldi’s floor and this was the Indians after all. It really shouldn’t change your feelings toward him moving forward.
Ariel Jurado – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Jurado gave us the sole true HAISTFMFWT?! of the day so at least he’s got that going for him.
Felix Pena – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 12 Ks. Wow, 39 CSW in 91 pitches for Pena with 15 whiffs and 24 called strikes. Hot dang! 18/37 on his slide piece alone and save for a few mistakes, he would have had a gem that everyone would be talking about. Instead some guy named Kopech is stealing all the headlines. I don’t believe this will stick, but Pena has flexed this kinda of upside here and there during the year, so consider him as a streamer for those Hail Mary plays.
Sal Romano – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. It’s gonna be a hard cheese kind of day with Romano. What does that even mean. Whatever you want it to be. Except to pick him up…don’t do that.
Dylan Bundy – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. It just keeps getting worse and worse for Bundy. It’s sad, really. I think there will be a rebound eventually for him, but I’d look elsewhere entering the playoffs if I were a Bundy owner.
Jakob Junis vs. Tampa Bay Rays – There is nothing here. Seriously. Nothing. I don’t like this – I think he’s too volatile – but whatareyagonnado.
Matt Boyd vs. Chicago White Sox – I like his improved velocity + the ChiSox n all.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Touki Toussaint vs. Miami Marlins – It looks like he’s getting another start in the rotation against the Marlins, and count me in. This might not be sub 20% the day of, but it’s under 10% now in ESPN so jump on it.
Game of the Day
Stephen Strasburg vs. Zach Eflin – He’s back, most likely in a low pitch count, and I want to see it.
Would you use Strasburg today in his first start off the dl. Things didn’t go well the last time he came off the dl. Thanks
It’s a DLH unless you need to take the chance.
Should be on a severe pitch count too.
Would you start/trust Kopech @ Det this weekend not blowing up ratios? I’ve read about his control issues.
I’d go with it. That’s 5 of his last six games without issuing a walk and his fastball command was great last night.
Take him over Ryu ROS?
Sorry Nick, I meant would you take Kopech over D-Rod ROS?
Yes, I would.
Ryu’s only bad games so far this year are the first one of the year, the one he got hurt, and this most recent start. On the year, he’s sporting an ERA under 2.30, a FIP at 3, more than a K per inning and more than 4 K/BB. He’s had a successful career when healthy… what is preventing him from being closer on the list to other injury prone studs (Rodon at 49, Eovaldi at 44, Rich Hill 29, Ryu 79)
That’s in 8 starts with a .207 BABIP and 85% LOB rate.
I think he’s the guy from last year – a much larger sample of 3.77 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with a 21.5% K rate. He should be started but he’s not a stud.
I love that Chase Anderson got an accidental shout-out in the Brett Anderson section.
I almost capitalized the C :-D
Are you sure Touki is going on Friday. I would hate to make a move and he not be called up.
Interesting. I see it here – http://scores.nbcsports.com/mlb/stats.asp?file=probables, I’ll search for more confirmation.
Berrios pitched through a 50 minute rain delay last night. I think you missed that based on the write-up. Sure, more would have been better but given the circumstances… he couldn’t do a lot more. He wasn’t super on or anything, but that explains the line.
How could I forget about that, I watched the start!
Thanks Kraken, I’ll update it.
Two quick questions, do you think Kopech is worth to have ROS?. Other options on my wire are
Would you rather any of them (assuming those schedules are true)? How would you rank them?
Thanks for shedding some light in my dark pitching staff :)
Man this is close. I think Kopech > Ray given Coors/Astros/Dodgers, though I don’t like Gibson’s next three starts either.
I’d grab Bieber for the longhaul, but honestly, if they are all on the wire I’d be streaming a ton of these.
Ideally, I’d keep all four!
Do you like Glasnow tomorrow vs KC as a stream?
I’d roll with it!
Nick, what’s your view on these weekend streaming options in a 9-team mixed roto:
Musgrove, D-Rod (DLH?), Chacin, Fiers, Luis Castillo, Holland
Would be dropping Lynn for one of these guys after today’s start @MIA. Cahill, Boyd, Rodon and Glasnow are also on the wire for the taking. My other healthy starters are Severino, Hill, Buehler and Wheeler, with Paxton and Ed-Rod on the DL until likely sometime next week, and I need help in Ks and WHIP.
Pablo is really an amazing player. Thank you for sharing this good news!