The List 9/3: Ranking All ROS Schedules For The Top 100 Starting Pitchers

What is happening. Last week we changed the format of The List and I’m updating it once again as we hit September I’ll be ranking the Top 100 (and a little more) this week per usual, but I will be attaching their estimated ROS schedule as well, to give you better idea of who has easy or hard schedules through the rest of the season.

Before we get started, there is one elephant in the room that made this really really difficult:

How do we rank strength of schedule?

I can’t give you a good answer. Last 30 days wOBA means the Blue Jays are a near top tier offense with the Reds near the bottom. Season wOBA doesn’t tell the whole tale either with teams hurt, injured, etc. Shorter samples get weighed heavily by a few blowouts here and there and suddenly I have no way to spit out a tiered list to make this easy.

I need to have some system for this as I’m going to be going over every pitcher’s estimated ROS schedule that matters for your fantasy team and I can’t just eye it out because that will get carved up in an instant.

So I’ve elected to go the extra mile for y’all. Here is a quick table of my opponent rankings ROS, with an exception being made for @COL/COL as they are wildly different teams outside of the massively helpful Coors Field. I’ve sorted teams into five tiers of Elite, Strong, Average, Weak, and Poor. 

Elite Offense @COL HOU OAK BOS CLE CHC
Strong Offense LAD ATL MIL SEA STL ARI NYY
Average Offense WSH TEX PIT TBR LAA CIN
Weak Offense PHI MIN TOR COL
Poor Offense SDP MIA NYM DET KCR CHW BAL SFG

Note: I moved the Giants from the fourth tier to the bottom tier and the Yankees from the top tier to the second tier this week. This may change against moving forward.

You probably have qualms with these assessments as I may have overlooked certain elements here and there, but I think we can all generally agree with these. If you don’t, make slight adjustments to the following List as the estimated schedules aren’t changing.

With that out of the way, I’m going to shoot out this massive table for you. There are a few things you have to keep in mind when reading this new edition of The List:

  • These schedules are not set in stone. Seriously, I tried my best to estimate this but man there is just so much up in the air
  • I will be updating this every Monday until the end of the season, just like The List normally operates.
  • The List is in order of who I’d want to own today for all future starts the rest of the way. I’m putting less weight on the final start of each pitcher as A) your H2H playoffs may be over and B) that final week is a mix of call-ups, setting up for playoffs, limiting innings, etc.
  • And while I am putting less weight on that final start, I am favoring pitchers with five starts over those with four. It might not come to fruition as mentioned in the previous point, but I still need to give them bonus points.
  • I did not included games played today, Monday 9/3, as I imagine most of you will be reading this after most of today’s games.
  • I did my best to guess return dates for injured pitchers. In the end, I don’t know and the guy who says he knows, yeah he doesn’t know.
  • It took longer than I anticipated to get this one out there today, and I ran out of time for adding Notes and Worst/Best ROS schedules. Please forgive me this week.
RankPitcher1st Start2nd Start3rd Start4th Start5th Start
1Max ScherzerCHC@PHI@MIANYM@COL
2Jacob DegromPHI@BOS@PHIATLMIA
3Aaron Nola@NYMMIANYM@COLATL
4Clayton Kershaw@COL@CINCOLSDP@SFG
5Justin VerlanderMIN@DETARILAA@BAL
6Blake SnellBALCLE@TEX@TORTOR
7Gerrit Cole@BOSARISEA@TOR@BAL
8Patrick CorbinATL@COLCHCCOL@SDP
9Noah SyndergaardPHIMIA@PHI@WSHMIA
10Carlos Carrasco@TOR@TBRCHW@CHW@KCR
11Corey KluberKCR@TBRDETBOS@KCR
12James PaxtonNYY@LAA@HOUOAKTEX
13Zack GreinkeATL@COL@HOUCOL@SDP
14Chris Sale-HOU?NYM?@NYY?BAL?
15Luis Severino@OAK@MINBOSBAL@BOS
16Mike ClevingerKCR@TORDETBOS@CHW
17Jack Flaherty@DETLAD@ATLMIL-
18Jameson TaillonCIN@STLKCRMIL@CIN
19German MarquezSFGARI@SFG@ARIPHI
20David PriceHOUTOR@NYYBALNYY
21Zack Wheeler@LADMIA@BOS@WSHATL
22Stephen StrasburgCHC@PHI@ATLNYM@COL
23J.A. Happ@OAK@MINTORBAL@TBR
24Mike FoltynewiczBOS@SFGWSHPHI@NYM
25Madison Bumgarner@MILCOL@STLSDP-
26Miles Mikolas@WSHPITLADSFGMIL
27Cole Hamels@WSHCIN@ARIPITSTL
28Walker Buehler@COL@STLCOL@ARI-
29Kyle Hendricks@WSHMIL@ARI@CHWSTL
30Luis CastilloSDPLAD@MIL@MIAPIT
31Eduardo RodriguezHOUTOR@NYYBALNYY
32Masahiro Tanaka@SEA@MINBOS@TBR@BOS
33Jon GrayLADARI@LADPHIWSH
34Kyle FreelandLADARI@LADPHIWSH
35Rich HillNYM@CIN@STLSDP@ARI
36Jake Arrieta@MIAWSHMIA@ATL@COL
37Alex Wood@COL@STLCOL@ARI-
38Nick Pivetta@MIAWSHNYM@ATL@COL
39Jon Lester@WSHMIL@ARIPITSTL
40Derek Holland@MILATL@SDPSDPLAD
41Jose BerriosKCR@KCR@DETDETCHW
42Rick Porcello@ATLTORNYM@CLENYY
43Robbie RaySDP@COL@HOUCOLLAD
44Zack GodleyATL@HOUCHCLAD-
45Carlos RodonLAA@KCR@CLECLE@MIN
46Michael KopechDET@KCR@CLECHC@MIN
47Tyler Glasnow@TORCLE@TEX@TORNYY
48CC Sabathia@SEATORBAL@TBR-
49Kevin Gausman@ARI@SFGSTLPHI@PHI
50Clay BuchholzATL@COLCHCLAD@SDP
51Kyle GibsonNYY@DET@OAKCHW-
52Dallas Keuchel@BOSARILAA@TOR-
53Shane Bieber@TOR@TBRCHWBOS@KCR
54Mike FiersNYY@BALLAAMIN@LAA
55Tanner RoarkSTL@PHI@ATLNYMMIA
56Shohei Ohtani@CHWSEA@HOUOAK-
57Anibal Sanchez@ARI@SFGSTLPHI@PHI
58Lucas GiolitoDET@KCR@BALCHC@MIN
59Joey Lucchesi@ARI@SEASFG@LADARI
60Hyun-Jin RyuNYM@CIN@STLSDP@SFG
61Chris ArcherMIA@STLKCR@CHC@CIN
62Joe MusgroveCIN@STL@MILMIL@CHC
63Trevor CahillTEX@TBRMIN@SEA-
64Nathan EovaldiHOUNYM@CLEBAL-
65Zach Eflin@NYMMIANYM@COLATL
66Dereck Rodriguez@COLATLCOL@STLLAD
67Matthew BoydSTL@CLEMIN@MIN@MIL
68Vince Velasquez@NYMMIA@ATL@COLATL
69Mike MinorLAA@LAA@SDPSEA@SEA
70Steven MatzPHIMIA@PHI@WSHMIA
71Jose Quintana@MILMILCIN@CHWPIT
72Wei-Yin Chen@PIT@NYMWSHCIN@NYM
73Dylan Bundy@TBROAKTOR@BOSHOU
74Andrew Heaney@TEXTEX@OAKTEX-
75Charlie Morton--SEA?@TOR?@BAL?
76Sean NewcombBOS@ARIWSHPHI@NYM
77Jhoulys ChacinCHC@CHCCIN@PITDET
78Tyler AndersonLAD@SFG@LADPHIWSH
79Jakob Junis@MINMIN@PIT@CINCLE
80Trevor RichardsPHI@NYM@PHICIN@WSH
81Wade MileyCHC@CHCPIT@PITDET
82Danny Duffy@CLECHWMIN@DET@CIN
83Trevor WilliamsMIA@MILMIL@CHC-
84Austin Gomber@DETPIT@ATLSFG@CHC
85Matt HarveySDP@CHC@MILKCR-
86Junior GuerraSFGPITCIN@STL-
87Michael FulmerSTL@CLEKCR@MIN-
88Chase AndersonSFG@CHCCIN@STLDET
89Edwin JacksonSEATEX@TBRLAA@SEA
90Marcus StromanCLE@NYY@BALHOUTBR
91Jake Odorizzi@HOUNYY@KCR@OAKDET
92Mike Leake@BALSDP@HOUTEXTEX
93Felix Pena@CHWSEA@HOUOAK-
94Jaime Barria@TEXTEX@OAKTEX-
95Lance Lynn@SEATORBOS@TBR@BOS
96Anthony DesclafaniSDPLAD@MIL@MIAPIT
97Wade LeblancBALSDP@LAA@TEXTEX
98Tyler Skaggs---@HOU?OAK?
99Aaron SanchezCLE@BOS@BALTBR@TBR
100Julio Teheran@ARIWSHSTL@NYM@PHI
101Ivan NovaMIA@MILKCR@CHC@CIN
102John Gant@WSHPITLADSFG@CHC
103Reynaldo LopezLAA@BALCHCCLE-
104Jose Urena@PIT@PHICIN@WSH-
105Andrew Suarez@COLATL@SDP@STLLAD
106Matt ShoemakerTEXSEA@HOUOAK-
107Jacob Nix@CINTEX@LADARI-
108Luke Weaver@DETLAD@ATLMIL@CHC?
109Homer Bailey@PITLAD@CHC@MIAPIT
110Alex Cobb@SEAOAKCHW@NYYHOU
111Marco Gonzales--@LAA?@TEX?OAK?
Nick Pollack

Founder of PitcherList.com. Rotographs and Washington Post contributor and has worked with CBS Sports, Grantland, and SB Nation. Former pitching coach and Brandeis alum.

sdf

Comments


Jim

Dare I think we can actually trust Reynaldo Lopez for his 2nd start this week v LAA? It is the playoffs, he has been better last few starts but the memory of all those times he burned us as a streamer is very vivid!

His ranking is rather dubious and maybe he should be avoided right now, regardless of recent success.

Cason Jollette

Bye this week. Afterwards:

Hold Gibson (@KC, @DET) or drop for:

L Castillo ( LAD, @MIL, @MIA)
Velasquez (MIA, @ATL)
Minor (@LAA, @SD, SEA)
Matz (MIA, @PHI, @WAS)
Heaney (TEX, SEA, @HOU)
Giolito (@KC, @BAL, CHC)
Lucchesi (@SEA, SF, @LAD)

Thanks Nick!

TheKraken

Handedness of the lineup is as important as anything in a matchup or the best player resting. Not saying this needs to be there but the idea of a matchup from pretty far out is probably overblown. As I mentioned a week ago, great matchups and really bad ones matter but there are a lot of variables.

TheCereberus

^This, as well as the psychological state of the pitcher going into the game. Most of the time it’s not possible to get insight into where a player’s head is at before a start, but previous track record at a stadium, day/night splits, etc. Really do have an impact. I imagine being a sports psychologist is a pretty interesting line of work. =)

Matt Nielsen

I don’t think Seattle should be considered a strong offense. Since the break, they’ve had a .303 wOBA and 95 wRC+ with a .465 win percentage. I’d say they’re more of an average offense these days.

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