What is happening. Last week we changed the format of The List and I’m updating it once again as we hit September I’ll be ranking the Top 100 (and a little more) this week per usual, but I will be attaching their estimated ROS schedule as well, to give you better idea of who has easy or hard schedules through the rest of the season.
Before we get started, there is one elephant in the room that made this really really difficult:
How do we rank strength of schedule?
I can’t give you a good answer. Last 30 days wOBA means the Blue Jays are a near top tier offense with the Reds near the bottom. Season wOBA doesn’t tell the whole tale either with teams hurt, injured, etc. Shorter samples get weighed heavily by a few blowouts here and there and suddenly I have no way to spit out a tiered list to make this easy.
I need to have some system for this as I’m going to be going over every pitcher’s estimated ROS schedule that matters for your fantasy team and I can’t just eye it out because that will get carved up in an instant.
So I’ve elected to go the extra mile for y’all. Here is a quick table of my opponent rankings ROS, with an exception being made for @COL/COL as they are wildly different teams outside of the massively helpful Coors Field. I’ve sorted teams into five tiers of Elite, Strong, Average, Weak, and Poor.
Note: I moved the Giants from the fourth tier to the bottom tier and the Yankees from the top tier to the second tier this week. This may change against moving forward.
You probably have qualms with these assessments as I may have overlooked certain elements here and there, but I think we can all generally agree with these. If you don’t, make slight adjustments to the following List as the estimated schedules aren’t changing.
With that out of the way, I’m going to shoot out this massive table for you. There are a few things you have to keep in mind when reading this new edition of The List:
- These schedules are not set in stone. Seriously, I tried my best to estimate this but man there is just so much up in the air
- I will be updating this every Monday until the end of the season, just like The List normally operates.
- The List is in order of who I’d want to own today for all future starts the rest of the way. I’m putting less weight on the final start of each pitcher as A) your H2H playoffs may be over and B) that final week is a mix of call-ups, setting up for playoffs, limiting innings, etc.
- And while I am putting less weight on that final start, I am favoring pitchers with five starts over those with four. It might not come to fruition as mentioned in the previous point, but I still need to give them bonus points.
- I did not included games played today, Monday 9/3, as I imagine most of you will be reading this after most of today’s games.
- I did my best to guess return dates for injured pitchers. In the end, I don’t know and the guy who says he knows, yeah he doesn’t know.
- It took longer than I anticipated to get this one out there today, and I ran out of time for adding Notes and Worst/Best ROS schedules. Please forgive me this week.
[table id=53 /]
Dare I think we can actually trust Reynaldo Lopez for his 2nd start this week v LAA? It is the playoffs, he has been better last few starts but the memory of all those times he burned us as a streamer is very vivid!
His ranking is rather dubious and maybe he should be avoided right now, regardless of recent success.
Bye this week. Afterwards:
Hold Gibson (@KC, @DET) or drop for:
L Castillo ( LAD, @MIL, @MIA)
Velasquez (MIA, @ATL)
Minor (@LAA, @SD, SEA)
Matz (MIA, @PHI, @WAS)
Heaney (TEX, SEA, @HOU)
Giolito (@KC, @BAL, CHC)
Lucchesi (@SEA, SF, @LAD)
Hate to be a dick here, but his rankings clearly have Castillo 21 spots ahead of Gibson. Seems like the easy switch…
Omg you’re such a dick!! haha just kidding . Well the caveat here is that it’s just for those specific 2 weeks, not the remaining 4 weeks.
Handedness of the lineup is as important as anything in a matchup or the best player resting. Not saying this needs to be there but the idea of a matchup from pretty far out is probably overblown. As I mentioned a week ago, great matchups and really bad ones matter but there are a lot of variables.
^This, as well as the psychological state of the pitcher going into the game. Most of the time it’s not possible to get insight into where a player’s head is at before a start, but previous track record at a stadium, day/night splits, etc. Really do have an impact. I imagine being a sports psychologist is a pretty interesting line of work. =)
I don’t think Seattle should be considered a strong offense. Since the break, they’ve had a .303 wOBA and 95 wRC+ with a .465 win percentage. I’d say they’re more of an average offense these days.
How we feeling about Wainwright ROS. His rehab starts have been stellar…