What is happening. This week’s edition of The List is going to be completely different from what you’re used to and will be in this format through the end of the 2017 season. I’ll be ranking the Top 100 (and a little more) this week per usual, but I will be attaching their estimated ROS schedule as well, to give you better idea of who has easy or hard schedules through the rest of the season.
But before we get started, there is one elephant in the room that made this really really difficult:
How do we rank strength of schedule?
I can’t give you a good answer. Last 30 days wOBA means the Nationals and Diamondbacks are bottom tier offensives with the A’s in the top. 2nd half dictates the Cardinals being the second strongest offense and the Red Sox third worst. Season wOBA doesn’t tell the whole tale either with teams hurt, injured, etc. Shorter samples get weighed heavily by a few blowouts here and there and suddenly I have no way to spit out a tiered list to make this easy.
I need to have some system for this as I’m going to be going over every pitcher’s estimated ROS schedule that matters for your fantasy team and I can’t just eye it out because that will get carved up in an instant.
So I’ve elected to go the extra mile for y’all. Here is a quick table of my opponent rankings ROS, with three exceptions being made for @COL/COL, @ARI/ARI, and @TEX/TEX, as they are wildly different teams outside of their massively helpful home ballparks. I’ve sorted teams into five tiers of Top, Good, Average, Weak, and Bottom.
[table id=38 /]
You probably have qualms with these assessments as I may have overlooked certain elements here and there, but I think we can all generally agree with these. If you don’t, make slight adjustments to the following List as the estimated schedules aren’t changing.
With that out of the way, I’m going to shoot out this massive table for you. There are a few things you have to keep in mind when reading this new edition of The List:
- These schedules are not set in stone. Seriously, I tried my best to estimate this but man there is just so much up in the air
- I will be updating this every Monday until the end of the season, just like The List normally operates.
- The List is in order of who I’d want to own today for all future starts the rest of the way. I’m putting less weight on the final start of each pitcher as A) your H2H playoffs may be over and B) that final week is a mix of callups, setting up for playoffs, limiting innings, etc.
- And while I am putting less weight on that final start, I am favoring pitchers with seven starts over six, like Jake Arrieta, Justin Verlander, Stephen Strasburg, etc. It might not come to fruition as mentioned in the previous point, but I still need to give them bonus points.
- I did my best to guess return dates for injured pitchers. In the end, I don’t know and the guy who says he knows, yeah he doesn’t know.
- Sorry for the lack of links to player pages. I might take the time to add them manually for next week’s but it’s another time sink that I couldn’t spend.
[table id=39 /]
- There is a ton to talk about and I’m going save the time of getting this out sooner instead of detailing multiple pitchers in these notes. Looking forward to diving into all this info with everyone in the comments and on Reddit.
- I don’t know what the Dodgers’ schedule will look like, so take that with a grain of salt regarding Alex Wood, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Kenta Maeda. Stupid Dodgers making everything confusing.
- I elected to move all pitchers who are on the DL to the end of the list this time around. Not only does it make the table easier to read, but there are some major questions about their value and it will fluctuate wildly based on your unique situation. Some will want the final few starts of the season in their roto league from Noah Syndergaard, others will get more value out of Reynaldo Lopez’s two starts possibly against the Giants and Tigers. There’s just so much up in the air that I delegated them to the end. I wonder how many of those predicted starts I get right when it’s all said and done…
- Joining The List this week are Tyler Mahle, Kyle Gibson, Parker Bridwell, Robert Stephenson, Mark Leiter Jr. Matt Moore, and Doug Fister. Fister and Gibson are surprising adds but they have been better than the rest of the pack in the 100-110 range and have decent schedules down the stretch to boost them. Stephenson has a comfy schedule ahead for the next four games after exploding for 11 strikeouts, forcing me to give him at the very least a look. I don’t expect Bridwell to maintain success, but you have to follow The Vargas Rule and roll him out there against the A’s in his next two starts. Moore has a decent stretch ahead and has been pitching better as of late. The last is Mahle, who I question if he can actually be fantasy relevant, but he has enough mystery to warrant a flier.
- Leaving the ranks this week are Jordan Montgomery, Chad Kuhl, Sean Newcomb, and Jeff Hoffman. Monty and Hoffman have been demoted, while Kuhl and Newcomb just aren’t carrying their weight.
10 pitchers ranked higher because of their ROS schedule
- Ervin Santana – CWS, KCR, @KCR, TOR, NYY, @DET, DET
- Mike Clevinger – @DET, @CWS, DET, KCR, @SEA, MIN
- Trevor Bauer – @NYY, @DET, BAL, KCR, @LAA, MIN, CWS
- Robert Stephenson – NYM, MIL, @NYM, PIT, BOS, @MIL
- Kyle Gibson – KCR, @TBR, SDP, TOR, @DET, @CLE
- Edwin Jackson – MIA, @MIL, PHI, ATL, @ATL, @PHI, PIT
- John Lackey – ATL, @PIT, NYM, STL, @MIL, @STL
- Jose Berrios – CWS, @TBR, @KCR, TOR, @NYY, @CLE, DET
- Brad Peacock – NYM, @SEA, @LAA, SEA, LAA, @BOS, CWS
- Charlie Morton – NYM @OAK, @LAA, CWS, LAA, @BOS
10 pitchers ranked lower because of their ROS schedule
- Chase Anderson – STL, @CIN, @CHC, @MIA, @PIT, CIN, @STL
- Zach Davies – WSH, @CIN, @CHC, @MIA, CHC, CIN
- Jimmy Nelson – WSH, @CIN, PIT, @MIA, CHC, CIN
- Ivan Nova – @CHC, CHC, @STL, @CIN, STL, @WSH
- Gerrit Cole – CIN, CHC, @MIL, @CIN, STL, @WSH
- Jon Gray – ARI, @LAD, @ARI, SDP, @SDP, LAD
- Chris Archer – CWS, @BOS, NYY, CHC, @NYY, BAL
- Eduardo Rodriguez – @NYY, TOR, OAK, @TBR, @CIN, HOU
- J.A. Happ – BOS, @BOS, DET, @MIN, KCR, @BOS
- Chris Stratton – STL, @COL, LAD, COL, @ARI, SDP