The List 8/29: All ROS Schedules For The Top 100 Starting Pitchers

What is happening. This week’s edition of The List is going to be completely different from what you’re used to and will be in this format through the end of...

What is happening. This week’s edition of The List is going to be completely different from what you’re used to and will be in this format through the end of the 2017 season. I’ll be ranking the Top 100 (and a little more) this week per usual, but I will be attaching their estimated ROS schedule as well, to give you better idea of who has easy or hard schedules through the rest of the season.

But before we get started, there is one elephant in the room that made this really really difficult:

How do we rank strength of schedule?

I can’t give you a good answer. Last 30 days wOBA means the Nationals and Diamondbacks are bottom tier offensives with the A’s in the top. 2nd half dictates the Cardinals being the second strongest offense and the Red Sox third worst. Season wOBA doesn’t tell the whole tale either with teams hurt, injured, etc. Shorter samples get weighed heavily by a few blowouts here and there and suddenly I have no way to spit out a tiered list to make this easy.

I need to have some system for this as I’m going to be going over every pitcher’s estimated ROS schedule that matters for your fantasy team and I can’t just eye it out because that will get carved up in an instant.

So I’ve elected to go the extra mile for y’all. Here is a quick table of my opponent rankings ROS, with three exceptions being made for @COL/COL, @ARI/ARI, and @TEX/TEX, as they are wildly different teams outside of their massively helpful home ballparks. I’ve sorted teams into five tiers of Top, Good, Average, Weak, and Bottom. 

[table id=38 /]

You probably have qualms with these assessments as I may have overlooked certain elements here and there, but I think we can all generally agree with these. If you don’t, make slight adjustments to the following List as the estimated schedules aren’t changing.

With that out of the way, I’m going to shoot out this massive table for you. There are a few things you have to keep in mind when reading this new edition of The List:

  • These schedules are not set in stone. Seriously, I tried my best to estimate this but man there is just so much up in the air
  • I will be updating this every Monday until the end of the season, just like The List normally operates.
  • The List is in order of who I’d want to own today for all future starts the rest of the way. I’m putting less weight on the final start of each pitcher as A) your H2H playoffs may be over and B) that final week is a mix of callups, setting up for playoffs, limiting innings, etc.
  • And while I am putting less weight on that final start, I am favoring pitchers with seven starts over six, like Jake Arrieta, Justin Verlander, Stephen Strasburg, etc. It might not come to fruition as mentioned in the previous point, but I still need to give them bonus points.
  • I did my best to guess return dates for injured pitchers. In the end, I don’t know and the guy who says he knows, yeah he doesn’t know.
  • Sorry for the lack of links to player pages. I might take the time to add them manually for next week’s but it’s another time sink that I couldn’t spend.

[table id=39 /]

Notes

  • There is a ton to talk about and I’m going save the time of getting this out sooner instead of detailing multiple pitchers in these notes. Looking forward to diving into all this info with everyone in the comments and on Reddit.
  • I don’t know what the Dodgers’ schedule will look like, so take that with a grain of salt regarding Alex WoodHyun-Jin Ryu and Kenta MaedaStupid Dodgers making everything confusing.
  • I elected to move all pitchers who are on the DL to the end of the list this time around. Not only does it make the table easier to read, but there are some major questions about their value and it will fluctuate wildly based on your unique situation. Some will want the final few starts of the season in their roto league from Noah Syndergaardothers will get more value out of Reynaldo Lopez’s two starts possibly against the Giants and Tigers. There’s just so much up in the air that I delegated them to the end. I wonder how many of those predicted starts I get right when it’s all said and done…
  • Joining The List this week are Tyler Mahle, Kyle Gibson, Parker Bridwell, Robert Stephenson, Mark Leiter Jr. Matt Moore, and Doug FisterFister and Gibson are surprising adds but they have been better than the rest of the pack in the 100-110 range and have decent schedules down the stretch to boost them. Stephenson has a comfy schedule ahead for the next four games after exploding for 11 strikeouts, forcing me to give him at the very least a look. I don’t expect Bridwell to maintain success, but you have to follow The Vargas Rule and roll him out there against the A’s in his next two starts. Moore has a decent stretch ahead and has been pitching better as of late. The last is Mahle, who I question if he can actually be fantasy relevant, but he has enough mystery to warrant a flier.
  • Leaving the ranks this week are Jordan MontgomeryChad Kuhl, Sean Newcomband Jeff HoffmanMonty and Hoffman have been demoted, while Kuhl and Newcomb just aren’t carrying their weight.

10 pitchers ranked higher because of their ROS schedule

10 pitchers ranked lower because of their ROS schedule

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

27 responses to “The List 8/29: All ROS Schedules For The Top 100 Starting Pitchers”

  1. The Kraken says:

    Great work. What a massive project! Can you try to make sure that this stays up as an archive? It would be cool to see how this actually plays out. I could be wrong, but I think the old list iterations go away.

  2. JB says:

    Outstanding work. I have a surplus of SP’s right now and this makes it easier to see who my drop should be for the playoffs. Thank you.

  3. Scott says:

    What are your thoughts of Jake junis tonight vs tb. He has been decent when he has started this year in his last couple of turns.. He has had trouble pitching out of the bullpen but he looks to be in that rotation for this week and next. Thanks

  4. Josh says:

    On your ranking teams question with wOBA – how do you account for teams that have just called up players from the minors? For example, the Phillies with Hoskins or Red Sox with Devers? While only looking at the last 30 days obviously cuts the sample too short, is there a mechanism for calculating wOBA of a new starting 9? That way, if you’re judging the Red Sox for instance, the Pablo Sandovals of the world won’t be included in the wOBA average but Dever’s short sample will be, as well as the entire year of Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi.

  5. chaz says:

    This is awesome! Just some minor points of feedback to consider:
    1) WAS doesn’t seem like a top tier offense with Harper out. They have cooled way down since the beginning of the year and are flat out bad over the last 30 days
    2) I would probably treat CIN similar to the Rockies, they are not top tier on the road.
    3) Top tier is questionable for the Cubs at well considering their wRC+ of exactly 100. I’d consider moving the Yankees up instead.

  6. Dave Cherman says:

    Castillo is reportedly only getting 1-2 more starts.
    http://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/mlb/reds/2017/08/26/bryan-price-luis-castillo-2018-rotation/605807001/

    Does that impact his ranking as top 50 rest of the way?

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Hence the question marks, Dave :-D

      It was kept in mind for this ranking here.

      • tiwaniuk says:

        I don’t feel confident holding Taillon going into the playoffs, but the only SP’s available ranked above him are Castillo (innings limit) and Manaea (no confidence in him either). Quite the dilemma as to what to do here!

        • Nick Pollack says:

          I’d drop Taillon for Castillo and then make a new decision when we get the official word on Castillo.

          Not to mention, I don’t think Taillon will be too serviceable until that time comes anyway, making for an easy swap again (if he’s still on the wire)

  7. Eddie says:

    I love your analysis. Thanks guys!

  8. Derick says:

    McHugh’s ranking above Pomeranz is puzzling. You’ve consistently ranked him low all year. I get the high WHIP aspect especially the walks and the wildness. But he’s been the Red Sox best pitcher behind Sale all year, and his overall numbers aren’t too far off Sale. His showing this year has been great.

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Huh. I’m a bit surprised to hear someone think I’m underrating The Dirty Cheerleader after I’ve been saying how I think others are have overlooked him through the year.

      It’s the massive WHIP (1.37, Yikes!) and low IPS (5.5) that hurts Pomeranz.

  9. tiwaniuk says:

    Nick, where would you rank McCullers if he was healthy? He’s slated to make a rehab start on Wednesday and I’m currently holding him in my DL spot, but could put Bellinger in there to pickup a higher ranked SP for the playoffs.

  10. Collin McHugh’s next start against texas is definitely not a bottom tier matchup. He hasn’t played well against them.

  11. Jeremy says:

    Who’d you rather own ROS, McHugh or Rodon? Strength of schedules are somewhat even with Rodon probably given the slight favor? Rodon has certainly proven more in tougher matchups whereas McHugh may have had only 1 difficult matchup vs ARI which he pitched well. FIP/xFIP since break look to be nearly interchangeable. 🤔🤔

  12. tiwaniuk says:

    Dropping Fulmer/Rodon for McHugh/Peacock is the correct move for the playoffs, right? RIGHT?! Lol, I know these ROS rankings say so, but I never thought I’d see the day when I’d be dropping the reigning AL ROY.

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Eh, awards are silly. Porcello won the Cy Young last year.

      They are all incredibly close, though I think McHugh is the clear one to own and I’d drop Fulmer for him.

      When do your playoffs start? I’d prefer to know more about Peacock’s situation before 100% trusting him for all of September.

      • tiwaniuk says:

        Lol, good point about Porcello!

        My playoffs start not next week, but the week after (Mon., Sept 11th to Sun., Sept 17th). Then the finals run from the 18th to the 24th.

        That makes sense about Peacock. I wonder how the PPD game tomorrow will affect his ROS schedule? I’m going to make the Fulmer/McHugh swap, but will hold off on Peacock until we know more.

        • tiwaniuk says:

          Edit: just as I finished posting my last response, it was announced that Verlander has been traded to Houston.

          I’m guessing that this boots Peacock out of the rotation now?

          • tiwaniuk says:

            Double edit: Sorry, so many questions running through my head now with the Verlander news!

            Does the Verlander acquisition affect McHugh’s ROS outlook at all?

            With McCullers coming back shortly that would make the rotation: Keuchel, Verlander, McCullers, McHugh, Morton/Fiers?

          • Nick Pollack says:

            Maybe it’s a six-man…?

            No one knows right now. Looking forward to debating that one with Fast tomorrow morning on the cast.

          • Nick Pollack says:

            If anything, this is better for Verlander. More Wins!

            Fiers is the 7th man. Morton 5th. Peacock 6th.

  13. Andy G says:

    Nick – thanks for the great analysis as always. Just curious why you still have Eduardo Rodriguez ranked so high…he has been very unimpressive and i’m trying to decide if I should drop him or not in a 12-teamer

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