The List 8/9: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – Week 20

It’s the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball and it’s time for Week 20 starting pitcher rankings.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00 am – 11:00 am EST Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream for The List.

As always, make sure to read the notes as many changes have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

For those unaware:

• Cherry Bomb = A volatile pitcher who is either super sweet or blows up in your face. There are few middle grounds.
• Toby = A middling pitcher who you can’t decide if they do enough to stay on your team and give you the itch to drop every single day. Named after Toby from The Office.

Here are the rules for those wondering why a pitcher is or isn’t ranked here:

1. If a pitcher is on the IL or out of the rotation and not confirmed for a start this week, they are pushed into the Fringe table.
2. If a pitcher is in a rotation and not confirmed to start but has not been placed on the IL or officially removed, they remain on The List.
3. These rankings are made as if I am drafting a team today for the rest of the season.
4. This means the Top 40-50 picks are more for ROS, while the rankings after are more short-term focused.
5. I will only incorporate a game played on Monday if the pitcher’s performance is completed before 2:00 pm EST.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• Before you look at The List, there really weren’t major changes this week, but instead a few heavy shifts and a touch-up of tiers here and there. Nothing crazy.
• There were three significant additions to The List in Chris Sale, Jack Flaherty, and James Kaprielian, with all other new additions coming at the start of Tier 14. Yes, that means you have some innate red ranks for many.
• I also had to remove Gerrit Cole and Jordan Montgomery due to COVID, which means the Top 10 had a new addition (welcome Sean Manaea!) and help offset the Sale/Flaherty.

 

• Speaking of that Top 10, I only shifted Yu Darvish into the first tier and pulled Lucas Giolito down a few spots. Nothing major and I think all of you will agree with the change given Darvish’s clear redemption start and Giolito’s struggles with his changeup.
• That knocks out the first two tiers and I made a third with Chris Sale, Jack Flaherty, and Luis Castillo as each of them could have the AGA label as soon as next week (Castillo got his this past week). Let’s hope Sale and Flaherty make it work in their returns.

 

• The fourth tier saw two pitchers take a dive – Aaron Nola and Sandy Alcantara – and it should make plenty of sense. The other five pitchers have performed well to hold their spots and while their current ranks showcase how I believe in both down the stretch, I can’t ignore the anxiety they’ve given managers.
• And don’t worry, I didn’t touch Joe Musgrove this week, I just like Nola and Alcantara slightly more.

 

• Tier 5 had a pair of major shakeups. Trevor Rogers fell seven spots as he’s expected to return from personal leave this week, though he hasn’t gone six frames in seven starts and it’s unclear if he can perform the moment he returns.
• Meanwhile, I was terrified by the innings restrictions given to Freddy Peralta over the last two weeks…until I saw him go 98 pitches last time out. I imagine his situation won’t be clear through the finish line but it’s clear I was wrong in my assessment of Peralta and I’m adjusting back. He’s still not Top 20 though given that some limitations are obviously coming.

 

• Tier 6 is…the same? I elected to swap Carlos Carrasco and Zac Gallen since the former had his slider and will continue to get stretched out while the latter hasn’t found his changeup yet. I expect both to be solid for squads.
• I know some are worried about Sonny Gray and rightfully so, I feel his history contains natural undulation for the feel of his breakers and he will sort it out over the final two months.

 

• Tier 7 is short and mostly untouched. Each arm has legit upside while Adam Wainwright is still having himself a ridiculous season and it’s wonderful.
• It was the calm before the storm as Tier 8 is where I began sorting pitchers based more on their skill sets (are they more ceiling or floor focused?) and here are the pitchers you feel confident starting based on their security.

 

• I’m not exactly sure what to do with Hyun Jin Ryu. He hasn’t had the full feel of his repertoire since the spring and I’m worried he’ll fail to grasp it before the curtains close on the season.
• Kyle Hendricks isn’t my favorite pitcher for fantasy given his questionable arsenal that doesn’t suggest a major rise up the ranks, but he’s been stable over the last two months and deserved more love.

 

• I’m not sure if Jameson Taillon will continue to have the same curveball we saw last week, but it was the best it’s been all season and could spell more time on his current run of excellence.
• Is there a league where you’re not starting Wade Miley and Logan Webb? Both have helped provide ratio foundations for trusting managers and should continue to do so.

 

• We head to Tier 9 where we have high ceilings and hopefully stable floors. Jon Gray and Nathan Eovaldi have each expressed strength despite some tough matchups, though there’s still plenty of doubt if they can be their best selves the rest of the way.
• Yes, Blake Snell was ridiculous over the weekend and while I don’t trust it fully – he wasn’t as efficient and in control as I hoped – it does mark two starts of a fastball/slider focus and it clearly works. He’s taking steps in the right direction and hopefully our trust can grow with each performance.

 

• I can’t deny that Austin Gomber has a gorgeous set of secondaries with a heater that does great things despite hovering 30% usage. It’s a fantastic approach and makes us often ignore the setting inside Colorado.
• After watching Josiah Gray earn 20 whiffs, I’m feeling a bit better about his mechanics than I was a week ago and I’ve pushed him as my favorite of the recent rookie call-ups. You’ll likely be holding on through September.

 

• Tier 10 is back to the boring but productive options in 12-teamers. A trio of Mets line the early 60s with Taijuan Walker taking the lead. His second-half seems to be the regression we expected after his explosive opening months, but his fastball is still good enough to make him worthy for your rotation.
• Meanwhile, teammate Tylor Megill hasn’t been able to do as much with his changeup and breakers as of late, lowering the confidence of managers. I think he’s still very viable, just not ascending as we hoped.
• Oh and Marcus Stroman is a glorified Toby and there’s nothing wrong with that.

 

• I wouldn’t say I believe strongly in Casey Mize’s fastball/slider/splitter mix, but the Tigers are allowing him to toss more frames these days and that should be worth your attention.
• Joe Ross now has three starts under his belt after his return from the IL, with the latest earning him a King Cole. It’s safe to say he’ll help you down the stretch, especially in Quality Start leagues.

 

• We’re back to the fun in Tier 11 and it’s the Bouncing Castle of fun. Daniel Lynch made his return to the majors two weeks ago and has looked like a pitcher much more in control, even earning 12 slider whiffs against the White Sox. There’s a boatload of potential here if that command sticks and I’d heavily consider the add even if he gets the Yankees next.
• Luis Patiño took a tumble after his four-seamer/slider mix that stifled the Yankees was lackluster against the Mariners. He can still burst through the clouds in the final weeks, but the forecast is a bit hazy.

 

• I’m worried about two things from Tarik Skubal: 1) His secondaries haven’t been sharp since the spring, summed up in 0/31 whiffs from sliders + changeups in his last start. 2) The Tigers are very likely to limit him in some way down the stretch. He can still be worthwhile, but this was the development year for Skubal, not the destined breakout.
• It’s weird to see David Price jump eight spots despite not blowing us away in his last start. This rank is more due to the ever-shifting landscape than my belief in him as a rock-solid staple of your staff.

 

• Jesús Luzardo has settled into the Marlins rotation and while I think the time on the major league bump will help, it’s unclear when he’ll unlock his upside once again – it could stay dormant until 2022.
• When will Zach Plesac get his groove back? He’s not in a great place at the moment though I have to imagine he’ll put it together before season’s end. It’s up to you if you want to stash him for a week or two for your fantasy playoffs.

 

• We’re back to the Toby considerations in Tier 12 with Madison Bumgarner impressing lately despite sitting ~90 mph on his heater. I wanted to see 91/92 mph instead, but I can’t deny this is a Vargas Rule many are taking.
• Zach Thompson fell a bit as his cutter + curveball + command-focused fastball approach hasn’t been what we saw before the All-Star Break. He’s not a bad arm for your teams, just not that arm.

 

• I gave some love to Steven Matz, Merrill Kelly, and Cole Irvin as well in Tier 12. Kelly is as Toby as it gets (The Flenderson?) with a 4.00 ERA and 20% strikeout rate across nearly 140 innings, Irvin is safe to start against middling offenses, and Matz gives trusting managers a chance at a Win each time out.

 

• Tier 13 is back to ceiling and I hope you already have all your 12-teamer roster spots occupied by now. I’m curious if Andrew Heaney can make a new tweak as a part of the Yankee rotation but we haven’t seen it yet and it’s not safe to assume he’ll improve.
• At the back-end of the tier are two surprising names: Braxton Garrett and Cal Quantrill. Garrett has punched out 16 batters in two starts for the Marlins and could continue to use his stellar command in his favor moving forward. Quantrill finally expressed a high ceiling last time out with 20 whiffs of his own, propelled by 10 whiffs on his 94 mph four-seamer and seven from his slider. It wasn’t anything close to what we’re used to from Cal, but that’s four Quality Starts in his last five. Something to heavily consider, at least as a Vargas Rule.

 

• We’re back to the boring in Tier 14, though Ross Stripling could be considered for Tier 13 instead given his changeup earning eight whiffs in his previous start. I’ve been waiting for something to come alive in his secondaries for a while now and I hope he’s able to do so with consistency now.
• Not much else to report in this tier, though, with the only large moving coming from JT Brubaker falling twelve spots. I love his slider when it’s on, but you just don’t know when he’ll be able to come through.

 

• The final tier is the “100” tier – Alex Fast has made it a requirement to have an intriguing name at #100 each week and sometimes, it’s too difficult to choose. Here we have four names that could each take the spot.
• First is Reid Detmers, who was the first-round pick of the Angels in 2020’s draft and has failed to produce in his first two big-league starts. Still, there’s plenty of potential in his curveball and slider and we didn’t expect him to come through against the Dodgers last time around. Keep an eye on him.

 

• Eli Morgan has been a bit of a surprise lately, including a nine-strikeout performance when his fastball/changeup/slider all came together. He could be valuable in a spot start or two down the road.
• Carlos Hernandez throws upwards of 100 mph and is stretching out as a starter for the Royals. That alone should have your attention and if he can get that slider in check, there’s something here.

 

• Lastly, yes, there is Dylan Bundy. Because why the h*ck not. Nothing stood out to me in his strong display last week but maybe it helped him gain the confidence he needed to be a legit arm once again.

 

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Max ScherzerT1	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
2	Walker Buehler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+1
3	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
4	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+1
5	Lance Lynn	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
6	Yu Darvish	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
7	Robbie Ray T2	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
8	Carlos Rodón	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
9	Lucas Giolito	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
10	Sean Manaea	Aces Gonna Ace Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Ratio Focused	+1
11	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+1
12	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
13	Chris Sale T3	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+UR
14	Luis Castillo	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-
15	Jack Flaherty	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+UR
16	Charlie Morton T4	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
17	Lance McCullers Jr.	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-
18	Julio Urías	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
19	Frankie Montas	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+1
20	Sandy Alcantara	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-5
21	Aaron Nola	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-5
22	Joe Musgrove	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-1
23	Shohei Ohtani T5	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-
24	Max Fried	Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
25	Patrick Sandoval	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-
26	Luis García	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+2
27	Shane McClanahan	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-
28	José Berríos	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+1
29	Trevor Rogers	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-7
30	Freddy Peralta	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Stash Option	+13
31	Alex Wood	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-5
32	Tyler Mahle	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
33	Alek Manoah	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-2
34	Chris Bassitt T6	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-2
35	Carlos Carrasco	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-1
36	Zac Gallen	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Stash Option	-3
37	John Means	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option	-2
38	Kenta Maeda	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-2
39	Germán Márquez	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-2
40	Sonny Gray	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Stash Option	-2
41	Yusei Kikuchi T7	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
42	Framber Valdez	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
43	Adam Wainwright	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-1
44	Dylan Cease	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
45	Wade Miley T8	Injury Risk Toby Ratio Focused	+3
46	Logan Webb	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+3
47	Kyle Hendricks	Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+7
48	Jameson Taillon	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+11
49	Hyun Jin Ryu	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
50	James Kaprielian	Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+UR
51	Zack Greinke	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+11
52	Jon Gray T9	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-7
53	Nathan Eovaldi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-7
54	Blake Snell	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Stash Option	+24
55	Josiah Gray	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+2
56	Logan Gilbert	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	-5
57	Austin Gomber	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+20
58	Kyle Gibson T10	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-3
59	Joe Ross	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+10
60	Casey Mize	Low Ips Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+12
61	Taijuan Walker	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-8
62	Tylor Megill	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-12
63	Marcus Stroman	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+2
64	Eduardo Rodriguez	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+3
65	Kwang Hyun Kim	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-2
66	Kyle Muller T11	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-8
67	Daniel Lynch IV	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+4
68	Luis Patiño	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-12
69	Tarik Skubal	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	-9
70	Adbert Alzolay	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+4
71	David Price	Low Ips Playing Time Question	+8
72	Jesús Luzardo	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Stash Option	-11
73	Zach Plesac	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option	-9
74	Touki Toussaint	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-6
75	Steven Matz T12	Injury Risk Cherry Bomb Toby	+6
76	Madison Bumgarner	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Toby Streaming Option	+4
77	Zach Thompson	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-11
78	Cole Irvin	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+6
79	Merrill Kelly	Cherry Bomb Toby Streaming Option	+6
80	Cal Quantrill T13	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+16
81	Nick Pivetta	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-6
82	Triston McKenzie	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-6
83	Andrew Heaney	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-10
84	Michael Pineda	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-2
85	Patrick Corbin	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option	+1
86	Braxton Garrett	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+14
87	Ross Stripling T14	Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+UR
88	Johnny Cueto	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+1
89	Mike Minor	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-2
90	Tyler Anderson	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-
91	Marco Gonzales	Toby Ratio Focused	+3
92	JT Brubaker	Toby Ratio Focused	-9
93	Vladimir Gutierrez	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+4
94	Dallas Keuchel	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+1
95	Ryan Yarbrough	Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused	-2
96	Chris Flexen	Cherry Bomb Toby Ratio Focused	+2
97	T15	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option Stash Option	-6
98	Eli Morgan	Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+UR
99	Carlos Hernández	Strikeout Upside Stash Option	+UR
100	Dylan Bundy	Stash Option	+UR

Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)