The List 8/8: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2022 – Week 19

Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 1:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00 am – 11:00 am ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.

For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:

1. This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
2. We have two tables to review before the notes and rankings. First is an injury table that outlines where players would be relatively ranked if fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
3. If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
4. Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
5. Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. Tier 10 is likely going to underperform those in Tier 11 across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase Tier 10’s ceiling vs. settling for Tier 11’s floor.
6. I’ve made a decision to remove all the labels that I struggle to maintain through the season to instead give each player just one label at a time. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
7. The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.

 

Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots:

 

 

I made a decision this year: I’ve removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.

Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” It’s difficult to update this week-to-week and I apologize if the ranking is different when the player actually returns from the IL. I hope it helps!

One last point about that – often times pitchers need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.

Now let’s take a look at the pitchers I considered for the Top 100 but didn’t quite make the cut:

 

 

Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, or if you want a primer on most of these pitchers, you can check out my 40,000 words from the pre-season via my Top 224 Starting Pitchers for 2022 from February. Both will help you get a grasp of my general thoughts on most of these guys (especially the roundup!) as I simply can’t detail everything about 100 pitchers in these notes each week.

 

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• As is tradition, I need to tell you about the guys who were removed and added from the Top 60, so you have context for the ranking shifts.
• Added: Edward Cabrera (57)
• Removed: Clayton Kershaw (12), Jon Gray (31), Tarik Skubal (49)
• Net Gain Inside Top 60: (+2)

 

• All is right in the world – Jacob deGrom has pitched two stud games and reclaimed his throne atop The List. Sure, he isn’t even fully stretched out and has an elevated injury risk, but he’s that good and there are only two months left to get injured. I didn’t have much of a choice.
• There were two other moves inside the top tier. Max Scherzer jumped to the third spot as he’s been absurd in every way, while Gerrit Cole fell to the bottom after his disaster inning against the Mariners. Small shifts, but you don’t get much wiggle room in the top tier.

 

• In the second tier…oh. I didn’t change anything inside the second tier except the removal of Clayton Kershaw. I don’t think there was anything dramatically different to move any of these guys around and I’d rather let one start slide of Dylan Cease not having his slider or Joe Musgrove not being at his best. Things happen.
• The third tier only saw one change – the addition of Julio Urías as he boasted 94+ mph once again on his four-seamer with an AGA tag. I wanted to elevate him last week but needed one more start to grant him the label to move past the gates of the third tier and slot inside the Top 20. Welcome back.

 

• We also saw the removal of Pablo López’s AGA label with a demotion to the fourth tier. After his first four starts to the year, Pablo holds a 4.31 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 24% strikeout rate across 100 frames.
• I also moved Frankie Montas out of the fourth tier and into the fifth – all of the movement in the fourth tier is because of this drop from Montas (and Kershaw and Gray getting removed). While I don’t expect Montas to be a failure in New York and he was pitching on roughly eight-days rest, I had to ding him a little for the current uncertainty. Hopefully the shoulder isn’t an issue and he gets on track in his next outing against the Sawx.

 

• I wasn’t thrilled with what we saw with Freddy Peralta, and I did lower him a little bit, but I’m willing to give him some more time before calling it off. It may take another start or two to kick in, but his ceiling is a Top 20 guy with the amount of hard contact he limits. His heater is so dang hard to hit.
• It’s hard not to love Triston McKenzie overwhelming the Astros across eight frames, though I find it difficult to buy too heavily into his four-seamer/curve mix (the slider is wonky at the moment). His command fluctuates often with his four-seamer and I’m skeptical his curve can remain at the bottom of the zone frequently.

 

• More in the fifth tier, Tyler Anderson and Blake Snell each moved up this week. Anderson’s magical 2022 continued against the Padres as his changeup has been dramatically better this year for whatever reason. He’s showing no signs of slowing down and he demands the Top 40 spot.
• Meanwhile, Blake Snell is on one of those stretches again and displaying the ceiling we’re looking at Tier 6 and hoping they exhibit. There’s certainly a risk it dwindles down the stretch, though you’re not resisting him in your lineups at the moment.

 

• Ahhhh Reid Detmers. The man tweaked his mechanics and found his slider, returning plenty of missed bats and boosting the performance of his four-seamer. As long as the results continue (maybe the curveball gets back to its April self?), I could find myself pushing him further up and up the list. The stuff is real.
• And don’t ignore Lance Lynn boosting his velocity a bit and earning seven whiffs on cutters. I’m not completely sold he’s good to go down the stretch, but he’s moving in the right direction.

 

• I gave Zac Gallen a small drop, mostly because of others moving ahead, but it was odd to see him feature his cutter so much in his last start – the pitch has been his fourth best offering this season. It didn’t fare too well despite being his most thrown pitch and the plot thickens to a season that has often felt like purgatory.

 

• Hey, it’s me, Mr. Broken Record as I talk about Logan Gilbert. I found myself wanting to favor those putting it all together over Gilbert who doesn’t have the full package quite yet. Certainly someone to keep starting, just not as potentially dominant.
• …Which makes sense to put him in the same tier as Martín Pérez and Miles Mikolas, and Taijuan Walker – all pitchers who have been set-it-and-forget-it for the past two months.

 

• The bottom half of the tier is the balance to the boring. Tyler Mahle should benefit from heading to Minnesota, I’m not willing to give up on Lucas Giolito quite yet, and Nick Lodolo gains five because of others moving, not because of his poor outing against the Brewers – I expect him to find his footing over the next two months, if not as soon as the Cubs this week.
• The final arm here is Jesús Luzardo, who has shined bright in his two starts since returning from the IL. The thing is, it came with 1.5 ticks lower velocity than his April self, without the same curve…but with a better changeup. I’m not sure how to make heads or tails of it quite yet and it could be a trap play against Atlanta later this week – they perform well against southpaws.

 

• I wish I could raise Andrew Heaney into Tier six or even higher, but he has a case of Dodgeritis as he’s limited to 75-80 pitches in each of his starts. Silly, I know. It makes for a difficult time ranking him and he felt at home beneath the pair of steady arms.
• And those arms are Merrill Kelly, and Marcus Stroman. Kelly has been on a tear as of late, lowering his ratios dramatically across the last few weeks, while Stroman has looked like his normal sturdy self.

 

• I gave a boost to both Jordan Montgomery and Carlos Carrasco as well. JorMont is in arguably a better situation with an elite infield defense + a cushy schedule the rest of the way, while Carrasco had three straight 0 ER games before a PQS against Atlanta.
• Under them is Taijuan Walker, who hasn’t had his slider recently, leading to an 8 ER blowup against Atlanta. I don’t want to push him too far down just for the Sunday outing, though the other arms above him have been more consistent across the last few weeks.

 

• Also falling in Tier 7 is Mike Clevinger, who hasn’t clicked with his breaking pitches yet. It could come in the near future or it could be something we don’t see for a while. I don’t believe Clevinger can be the guy we want him to be without the slider and cutter being plus offerings.
• I’m a little worried Aaron Ashby is turning into a Cherry Bomb for 2022, though I imagine with enough time he develops consistency on his three pitch-mix. It’s a gamble of figuring out when he properly clicks and establishes his command.

 

• Rejoining The List this week is Edward Cabrera, who returned to fan eight Cubs batters across five frames. Oddly enough, his changeup wasn’t the star of the show this time around, but his curveball and slider combined for ten whiffs between them. He feasted on the aggressiveness of the Cubs and he may not be so lucky against the Phils this week. I’m curious about what we see.
• The same goes for Braxton Garrett as he finally faces a difficult opponent. Is the slider still a double-digit whiff pitch and will his other offerings survive the ordeal? I think he’s worth the hold for the ceiling in that sweeper, but he could fall next week.

 

• What are we doing with George Kirby? Last week, I believed the Mariners would push him back to the minors after his double-header against the Angels, but now he may be sticking around inside a six-man rotation. That said, he’s similar to Logan Gilbert in that his breakers still need work and even pitching in the majors doesn’t guarantee production. Proceed with caution.
• I lowered Joe Ryan a touch even after a dominant outing against the Tigers for a simple reason – he’s still missing his slider. Without that breaker, I fear the worst against the Dodgers this week and his foreseeable future when he doesn’t face teams that rhyme with Hetroit.

 

• Tier nine is massive but it makes all the sense in the world to me – it’s the tier of Cherry Bombs sandwiching some basic Tobys in the middle. Sorry José Berríos, we just don’t know what to make of you anymore, and the same goes for Patrick Sandoval as he can’t consistently find the feel for his changeup.
• It’s wild that I have José Quintana and Cole Irvin now inside the Top 75, but any managers who have rostered them understand why. Hopefully these Vargas Rules continue through the end of the year.

 

• I feel icky leaving Nathan Eovaldi essentially where he was last week, but I had to drop/remove too many and he ultimately “stayed put”. I don’t want to trust it with his 94 mph heaters – it’s a precarious situation.
• Lastly, there’s Brady Singer who had a rough outing against the White Sox last time but could rebound in a repeat this week. It’s a coin toss if he can locate effectively in a given day and it’s not a game I suggest playing with regularity.

 

• The tenth tier is filled with your boring Tobys, with a tinge of upside from Domingo Germán and Justin Steele. I didn’t expect Domingo to stick in the Yankee rotation post-trade deadline, but he has a fifth spot now and may be able to ride his curveball to cheap Wins and a handful of strikeouts.
• I’m impressed by the lack of hard contact allowed on Justin Steele’s slider and if he can maintain the pitch separation of four-seamer & slider like we saw over the weekend, Steele could rise over the next month.

 

• In the eleventh tier, these are arms if you need to find six frames or a random arm for a good matchup. Mitch Keller has been on a solid run, but I don’t buy his approach, while Aaron Civale returns from the IL this week to face the Tigers – that’s normally a Still ILL, but I think you’re safe there.
• Don’t overlook James Kaprielian as he’s proven himself useful against weak opponents with his slider and four-seamer.

 

• In the bottom tier, Ian Anderson remains on The List despite his recent demotion as he’ll be pitching this week in their doubleheader against the Marlins. Don’t hold onto him after that, though.
• I find it hard to latch onto Yusei Kikuchi these days and I’d prefer to chase other options. That said, there’s a small chance he unlocks his potential with each start, and with the Jays offense behind him, I grasp those wanting to give it a chance.

 

• We have five new names this week – Drew Smyly, Graham Ashcraft, Dane Dunning, Dylan Bundy, and Adrian Martinez. Smyly’s curveball has been effective, Ashcraft could go 6+ against the Cubs, Dunning’s command was great last time out, and Bundy finally featured 40%+ sliders to reasonable success. I wouldn’t roster any in 12-teamers, (it is past the Top 95!), but there could be some sneaky value here.
• And finally, who is Adrian Martinez? He tossed just under 70 pitches for the Athletics and may stretch out through the end of the year as he’s armed with a wicked changeup. Keep your eye on him as he moves toward 90 pitches – if that changeup can keep earning 8+ whiffs, he may be a solid streaming candidate.

 

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

FOR REAL

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Jacob deGromT1	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	+4
2	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
3	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
4	Shane McClanahan	Aces Gonna Ace	-2
5	Sandy Alcantara	Aces Gonna Ace	-2
6	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
7	Justin Verlander	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
8	Gerrit Cole	Aces Gonna Ace	-2
9	Joe Musgrove T2	Aces Gonna Ace	-
10	Carlos Rodón	Aces Gonna Ace	-
11	Shohei Ohtani	Aces Gonna Ace	-
12	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
13	Alek Manoah	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
14	Aaron Nola	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
15	Dylan Cease	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
16	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
17	Logan Webb T3	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
18	Shane Bieber	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
19	Julio Urías	Aces Gonna Ace	+7
20	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace	-
21	Yu Darvish	Aces Gonna Ace	-
22	Robbie Ray	Aces Gonna Ace	-
23	Tony Gonsolin	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
24	Luis Castillo T4	Ace Potential	+1
25	Kyle Wright	Ace Potential	+2
26	Framber Valdez	Ace Potential	+2
27	Pablo López	Ace Potential	-4
28	Chris Bassitt	Ace Potential	+2
29	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential	+3
30	Spencer Strider	Ace Potential	+3
31	Frankie Montas T5	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-2
32	Triston McKenzie	Strikeout Upside	+4
33	Nestor Cortes	Ace Potential	+4
34	Luis Garcia	Strikeout Upside	+1
35	Tyler Anderson	Quality Starts	+7
36	Blake Snell	Ace Potential	+9
37	Lance Lynn	Ace Potential	+6
38	Cristian Javier	Ace Potential	+2
39	Freddy Peralta	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-5
40	Zac Gallen	Ace Potential	-2
41	Reid Detmers	Ace Potential	+11
42	Logan Gilbert T6	Ace Potential	-3
43	Martín Pérez	Quality Starts	+4
44	Miles Mikolas	Quality Starts	+2
45	Tyler Mahle	Strikeout Upside	+10
46	Lucas Giolito	Ace Potential	+5
47	Nick Lodolo	Strikeout Upside	+6
48	Jesús Luzardo	Ace Potential	+8
49	Merrill Kelly T7	Quality Starts	+10
50	Marcus Stroman	Quality Starts	+10
51	Andrew Heaney	Ace Potential	-1
52	Jordan Montgomery	Toby	+10
53	Carlos Carrasco	Quality Starts	+12
54	Taijuan Walker	Quality Starts	-13
55	Mike Clevinger	Ace Potential	-11
56	Aaron Ashby	Ace Potential	-2
57	José Urquidy	Toby	+4
58	Edward Cabrera	Ace Potential	+UR
59	Joe Ryan T8	Ace Potential	-1
60	Braxton Garrett	Strikeout Upside	+9
61	Sonny Gray	Strikeout Upside	+3
62	Sean Manaea	Ace Potential	+1
63	Jeffrey Springs	Strikeout Upside	+3
64	George Kirby	Ace Potential	+15
65	Patrick Sandoval T9	Cherry Bomb	-8
66	José Berríos	Cherry Bomb	-18
67	Michael Kopech	Cherry Bomb	-
68	Alex Cobb	Cherry Bomb	+5
69	Alex Wood	Cherry Bomb	-1
70	Josiah Gray	Cherry Bomb	-
71	Corey Kluber	Toby	+3
72	Adam Wainwright	Toby	+3
73	Noah Syndergaard	Toby	+3
74	Jose Quintana	Toby	+11
75	Cole Irvin	Toby	+6
76	Nathan Eovaldi	Cherry Bomb	+2
77	Eric Lauer	Cherry Bomb	+5
78	Brady Singer	Cherry Bomb	-6
79	Johnny Cueto T10	Toby	+5
80	Jameson Taillon	Toby	-3
81	Domingo Germán	Streaming Option	+UR
82	Drew Rasmussen	Toby	+7
83	Ranger Suárez	Streaming Option	-3
84	Jake Odorizzi	Streaming Option	-1
85	Justin Steele	Streaming Option	+13
86	Marco Gonzales T11	Quality Starts	+7
87	Kyle Gibson	Toby	+5
88	Aaron Civale	Toby	+UR
89	Zach Plesac	Toby	-1
90	Mitch Keller	Streaming Option	-
91	James Kaprielian	Streaming Option	+4
92	Chris Flexen	Toby	+2
93	Keegan Thompson T12	Streaming Option	+3
94	Yusei Kikuchi	Streaming Option	-7
95		Streaming Option	+UR
96	Ian Anderson	Cherry Bomb	-5
97	Graham Ashcraft	Streaming Option	+UR
98	Dane Dunning	Streaming Option	+UR
99	Dylan Bundy	Streaming Option	+UR
100	Adrián Martínez	Stash Option	+UR

 

Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)