The List 8/30: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – Week 23

It’s the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball and it’s time for Week 23 starting pitcher rankings.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00 am – 11:00 am EST Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream for The List.

As always, make sure to read the notes as many changes have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

For those unaware:

• Cherry Bomb = A volatile pitcher who is either super sweet or blows up in your face. There are few middle grounds.
• Toby = A middling pitcher who you can’t decide if they do enough to stay on your team and give you the itch to drop every single day. Named after Toby from The Office.

Here are the rules for those wondering why a pitcher is or isn’t ranked here:

1. If a pitcher is on the IL or out of the rotation and not confirmed for a start this week, they are pushed into the Fringe table.
2. If a pitcher is in a rotation and not confirmed to start but has not been placed on the IL or officially removed, they remain on The List.
3. These rankings are made as if I am drafting a team today for the rest of the season.
4. This means the Top 40-50 picks are more for ROS, while the rankings after are more short-term focused.
5. I will only incorporate a game played on Monday if the pitcher’s performance is completed before 2:00 pm EST.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• This is the final week that The List will be presented as you know it. Next Tuesday (Labor Day on Monday) will be a ranking combined with the expected schedules for all rotations through the end of the year. Instead of a traditional 1-100 ranking, it will shift to a table that showcases how many Good/Neutral/Poor matchups each pitcher is expected to have + a tiered grouping. It’s been fun y’all :)
• That said, this week heavily incorporated future schedules as well. Each pitcher’s expected matchups did not play a major factor inside the Top ~40 or so, but they did in the second half of the rankings, including some dramatic drops at the end. I’ll note those affected inside the notes below, but please keep in mind: This edition heavily considered expected schedule.

 

• The top tier doesn’t change, despite Walker Buehler and Gerrit Cole each pitching at a level deserving of the #1 spot. With Buehler, there’s still a concern he’ll be limited in some capacity in September. For Cole, he’s been fantastic, but Scherzer has done it all year.
• Zack Wheeler’s ERA has taken a hit lately, but moreso due to being left in too long (Careful, Icarus) and not as a product of his ability. He’s still fantastic.

 

• The second tier welcomed back Carlos Rodón, even if his velocity was a tad on the lower end for 2021’s standards. I’d expect him to get back up to speed moving forward.
• Speaking of getting up to speed, Sandy Alcantara blazed past the Reds on back-to-back starts, earning 23 strikeouts in the process. He has the Phillies next and he’s one more dominant start away from getting the AGA label back once again.

 

• Look at Frankie Montas, rising to #14 as he sits at the top of the third tier. The man has been on a tear and has no signs of slowing down. I could say the same for Logan Webb and Adam Wainwright right behind him and there’s zero reason you should stop starting any of them. I’m tempted to call it the “Márquez Rule” akin to his incredible run in 2018 that was more than a Vargas Rule but not deserving a legit AGA title.
• Kevin Gausman falls to #18 as he lost his AGA tag this week. His splitter simply hasn’t been the same over the past month and change and while I believe he will get the splitty back before season’s end, I can’t overlook others who are having that success right now.

 

• I didn’t lower Shohei Ohtani, Webb and Waino went above him. I did slightly lower Charlie Morton, though. He has a rough schedule ahead and he’s shown a bit of weakness against strong opponents – he’s only human. I wouldn’t stop starting him, but he gets dinged a few points.
• Shane McClanahan doesn’t have a pretty schedule, either, pushing him slightly down a few spots in favor of Alek Manoah.

 

• It’s about time I gave some more love to Nathan Eovaldi after his curveball was returned a whopping 41% CSW this season. Crazy! He only tosses it 18% of the time, but that new secondary offering has turned Eovaldi into a legit arm down the stretch.
• Sorry Max Fried, you haven’t had your best slider and the schedule ahead isn’t the prettiest. I’d rather go with the others above who carry the same skill set but aren’t trending in the wrong direction.

 

• Hey Marcus Stroman, please keep doing what you’re doing. The Mets have a wonderful schedule ahead and Stroman is feeling his slider + cutter. As long as that approach is intact, Stroman can soar through the finish line.
• Our featured pitcher this week is Blake Snell, who tossed 122 pitches as he stomped the Dodgers, marking his fifth straight strong outing. The new fastball/slider attack has worked beautifully and it seems more stable with each start we see it. I hope we see it for a full month ahead.

 

• Tier 6 is where things get interesting. Tarik Skubal had his four-seamer doing wonderful things last time out + his slider earned quality strikes in the zone. As long as those two pitches are working, his changeup is just icing at that point. Hopefully he can carry it through the end with a decent schedule in front of him.
• The legend of Cal Quantrill grows, taking down the Red Sox over the weekend. He does get the Sawx a second time and while I’m not completely sold that the slider + fastball are enough for sustained long-term success, you can’t deny the run he’s been on.

 

• After a mid-season lull from Kyle Gibson, he looks to be back to his old tricks again, paired with a ridiculously good schedule ahead – @MIA, @MIL, CHC, @NYM. Just one more month Gibson, you can do this.
• Ian Anderson returns to the list and sits inside the top 50 despite not earning a single strikeout across 5.2 frames against the Giants. I can’t imagine the dearth of punchouts replicating moving forward and his results should benefit your squads…after his next start in Coors.

 

• I was conflicted on where to place Sean Manaea. It’s been a downward spiral across the last month, however his start against the Yankees did come with a silver lining – he sat 93.3 mph on his sinker. The second half of the puzzle is locating his changeups and curveballs down and under the zone and if Manaea reclaims that command, he could make a major impact down the stretch.
• Despite falling two spots, Sonny Gray could climb quickly if his new slider/cutter continues to produce. The Reds have a comfortable schedule ahead and it could spell a massive rebound for Gray.

 

• Tier 7 is filled with fun, young names. Edward Cabrera made his MLB debut and left us wondering what comes next after striking out just two batters. The Marlins have few teams to fear ahead of them and Cabrera may be lodged into that rotation (six-man?) as they give him more experience in preparation for a 2022 rotation spot.
• Carlos Hernández’s last pitches came via a surprise relief appearance on Friday, where he dominated once again with upper 90s heaters and a pair of whiff-heavy breakers. There’s plenty of potential here as long as the command doesn’t waver, and he’s set to face the weakest teams of any of his peers in Kansas City.

 

• I gave a dip to Tanner Houck as he hasn’t come through on the volume nor strikeout front now that he’s fully entrenched in the Red Sox rotation. The skills are there – a 94/95 mph heater + a wipeout slider – it’s on him to put it together and put batters on their heels.
• Now that the difficult starts are (mostly) behind him, it’s time to embrace Daniel Lynch. September could show us plenty more whiffs on that slider + well-located heaters as he gets more comfortable inside the Royals’ rotation.

 

• Tier 8 is a long one and is a mash of two ideas: Guys who aren’t in the best situations but have legit potential to be auto-starts + steady arms that should raise the floor of your teams.
• Take Carlos Carrasco, for example. He’s been struggling since returning from the IL, but had a moment where things clicked for him against the Giants. After tossing sliders in the first, he went changeup-heavy for the following six frames, finally giving us a glimpse of his former self. If Carrasco carries that changeup + finds his old slider, he can carve up lineups through September.

 

• Zac Gallen isn’t having the easiest time in the Diamondbacks’ rotation. His four-seamer is helping him get outs, but his classic changeup and cutter simply aren’t what they used to be. I believe he’ll find both pitches over time, but the Dodgers and Houston await in mid-September and time is running out. We’re in a tough position and hoping Gallen figures it out.
• It’s a large leap for Austin Gomber, but keep in mind that three of his next four starts are on the road + he’s embracing 30% fastball usage once again. That should work in his favor.

 

• It hasn’t been fun watching Hyun Jin Ryu struggle with his repertoire over the past two months and after showcasing his best slider in ages against the Tigers, he relapsed against the White Sox. There’s a chance the slow ball does return and his opponents aren’t the most intimidating, but he deserved a large drop in the ranks.
• The same goes for Kyle Hendricks, who’s battled his command constantly over the last few weeks, leading up to Sunday’s disaster against the White Sox (the White Sox are ruining everybody, aren’t they). It has always been a small margin of error for Hendricks and without that command, it’s hard for things to go his way.

 

• Tier 9 is the ABBA tier: “Take a chance on me”. All of these arms are exciting in their own way, but we just don’t know how their skills will play out over the last month of the year. Take Aaron Ashby, for example. His fastball clocks in at 95+ mph with a pair of strong secondaries he can throw for strikes, but we just don’t know how the Brewers will use him in the final weeks. Let’s hope he gets the starts he deserves.
• Corey Kluber and Chris Paddack are both returning from the IL to start on Monday and we just don’t know how they’ll perform. The upside is clear, though they could hurt more than help in September.

 

• Ranger Suárez and Jake Odorizzi sit inside the Top 75 as their schedules are as pretty as they get over the next few weeks. Suárez doesn’t bring electric upside, but he should be able to plod through weak teams to help, while Odorizzi could mimic his 2019 self and produce.
• It was a magnificent start for Jesús Luzardo as he fanned eight after reducing his fastball usage to just 40%. It’s an approach that should work for the credentialed southpaw – it’s far and away his worst offering – and if Luzardo leans into it, we could see more success come his way.

 

• I know it’s crazy, but Kyle Freeland has a new curveball and we’ve seen it dominate for two straight starts, including a bout with the Dodgers. It’s something to heavily consider against Texas ahead.
• As I type this, Bailey Ober is looking like Bailey Oberizzi again, elevating four-seamers effectively against the Tigers. He’s now added the extra element of sliders down-and-away for a solid one-two punch and I’m intrigued for what’s ahead…just maybe not against the Rays next.

 

• Don’t overlook A.J. Alexy, who makes his MLB debut for the Rangers on Monday evening. He comes with a mid-90s heater he tends to elevate + a big yacker that falls to the bottom of the zone. It sounds like a BSB and who knows, maybe he electrifies Texas down the stretch.
• Finally, I should mention Zach Plesac, who found his slider last time out, but still doesn’t have his 2020 changeup. He’s halfway back to his best self, though, and it could return across the next month.

 

• It’s been tough enduring Eduardo Rodriguez, but his fastball simply isn’t enough to start him against the Rays twice + White Sox ahead. He really needs that changeup to return and there’s no hint of it coming back any time soon.

 

• In the tenth tier, we move away from exciting potential to a little more stability. You know what you’re going to get from Nick Pivetta and Cole Irvin, while Kwang Hyun Kim and Chris Flexen have showcased themselves as steady Toby types.
• There was no official news at the time of publication about Jon Gray’s status moving forward after he was pulled with a forearm injury. I fear the worst and elected to pull him down to #84 – past the point where you’d be holding onto starters. Consider replacing his roster spot with a flier off the wire.

 

• Tier 11 is Tier 9 but a full step down. Glenn Otto made his debut last week and displayed a fantastic slider that kept Astros hitters at bay. We don’t know if the fastball command will be good enough to let the slider overwhelm moving forward, but it was a great first impression.
• Otto’s teammate Taylor Hearn makes The List as he had a decent start against the Angels on the horizon. I don’t think his overall ability speaks to an arm you should hold for an extended time, but there may be some value to be had there.

 

• A pair of classic names find themselves just inside the Top 90 in Rich Hill and Chris Archer. Hill has a luscious date with the Marlins ahead, while Archer just flexed a slider akin to his 2017 self. We’ll see how these arms pan out.
• I gave massive drops to Tylor Megill, Anthony DeSclafani, Yusei Kikuchi, and Patrick Corbin this week. Megill hasn’t had his changeup for a few weeks now and I worry he’ll be searching for the slow ball all September. Without that pitch, he’s not worth your time. Kikuchi and DeSclafani each have horrific schedules ahead of them and in concert with their recent struggles, I would abandon ship on both. And then there’s Corbin, who has the velocity and whiffs…but doesn’t get the results. Sigh.

 

• In the final tier, we have a group of desperate options if you’re chasing streamers across the next two weeks. Bryse Wilson just tossed a gem and has three cushy matchups against the Cubs, Nationals, and Marlins after a gauntlet against the ChiSox. Paul Blackburn also has a trio of solid starts, Paolo Espino doesn’t get much volume, but may help in his beneficial matchups 9and just earned plenty of slider whiffs!), and Johnny Cueto is a certifiable Toby with a few good options.
• Finally, there’s Alec Mills, who has a start against the Pirates this week after going 8.1 frames strong against the White Sox. Hey, you could do worse.

 

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Max ScherzerT1	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
2	Walker Buehler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
3	Gerrit Cole	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
4	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
5	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
6	Robbie Ray	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
7	Lance Lynn T2	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
8	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
9	Chris Sale	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-
10	Lucas Giolito	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
11	Luis Castillo	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+1
12	Sandy Alcantara	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+7
13	Carlos Rodón	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+UR
14	Frankie Montas T3	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+2
15	Logan Webb	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+7
16	Adam Wainwright	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+5
17	Lance McCullers Jr.	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-2
18	Kevin Gausman	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-8
19	Shohei Ohtani	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-2
20	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-6
21	Alek Manoah	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+3
22	Shane McClanahan	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-2
23	Joe Musgrove	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+4
24	Aaron Nola T4	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
25	Yu Darvish	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
26	José Berríos	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-
27	Julio Urías	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	+1
28	Luis García	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+1
29	Nathan Eovaldi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+7
30	Max Fried	Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-12
31	Huascar Ynoa	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+1
32	Dylan Cease	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	+9
33	Marcus Stroman T5	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+11
34	Alex Wood	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-4
35	Blake Snell	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+7
36	Tyler Mahle	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-3
37	Josiah Gray	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+2
38	Framber Valdez	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-4
39	Wade Miley	Injury Risk Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+6
40	Sonny Gray T6	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-2
41	Germán Márquez	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-6
42	Taijuan Walker	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+9
43	Tarik Skubal	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+11
44	Jordan Montgomery	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+12
45	Cal Quantrill	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+8
46	Kyle Gibson	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+27
47	Sean Manaea	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Ratio Focused	-16
48	Ian Anderson	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+UR
49	T7	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Stash Option	+8
50	Carlos Hernández	Strikeout Upside Stash Option	+10
51	Elieser Hernández	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+7
52	Daniel Lynch IV	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+29
53	Tanner Houck	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-13
54	John Means T8	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option	-4
55	Jameson Taillon	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-9
56	Zac Gallen	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-19
57	Carlos Carrasco	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+11
58	Vladimir Gutierrez	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-3
59	Austin Gomber	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+16
60	Zack Greinke	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-13
61	Zach Thompson	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+5
62	Marco Gonzales	Toby Ratio Focused	+3
63	Steven Matz	Injury Risk Cherry Bomb Toby	+1
64	Hyun Jin Ryu	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-21
65	James Kaprielian	Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-2
66	Kyle Hendricks	Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-18
67	Aaron Ashby T9	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+UR
68	Corey Kluber	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
69	Chris Paddack	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
70	Jake Odorizzi	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+10
71	Ranger Suárez	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
72	Kyle Freeland	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option Stash Option	+12
73	Jesús Luzardo	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Stash Option	+27
74	Brady Singer	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+UR
75	Luis Patiño	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+7
76	Bailey Ober	Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+16
77	Zach Plesac	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option	-5
78		Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
79	Kwang Hyun Kim T10	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
80	Chris Flexen	Cherry Bomb Toby Ratio Focused	+8
81	Cole Irvin	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-4
82	Nick Pivetta	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-8
83	Jon Gray	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-24
84	Eduardo Rodriguez	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-22
85	Glenn Otto T11	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
86	Eli Morgan	Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	-
87	Taylor Hearn	Toby Streaming Option	+UR
88	Rich Hill	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Streaming Option	+UR
89	Chris Archer	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
90	Matthew Boyd	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
91	Tylor Megill	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-21
92	Anthony DeSclafani	Injury Risk Cherry Bomb Ratio Focused	+UR
93	Yusei Kikuchi	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option	-26
94	Patrick Corbin	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option	-23
95	Tyler Anderson T12	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-16
96	Johnny Cueto	Toby Streaming Option	+UR
97	Bryse Wilson	Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
98	Paul Blackburn	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
99	Alec Mills	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
100	Paolo Espino	Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR

Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)