The List 8/23: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – Week 22

It’s the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball and it’s time for Week 22 starting pitcher rankings.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00 am – 11:00 am EST Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream for The List.

As always, make sure to read the notes as many changes have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

For those unaware:

• Cherry Bomb = A volatile pitcher who is either super sweet or blows up in your face. There are few middle grounds.
• Toby = A middling pitcher who you can’t decide if they do enough to stay on your team and give you the itch to drop every single day. Named after Toby from The Office.

Here are the rules for those wondering why a pitcher is or isn’t ranked here:

1. If a pitcher is on the IL or out of the rotation and not confirmed for a start this week, they are pushed into the Fringe table.
2. If a pitcher is in a rotation and not confirmed to start but has not been placed on the IL or officially removed, they remain on The List.
3. These rankings are made as if I am drafting a team today for the rest of the season.
4. This means the Top 40-50 picks are more for ROS, while the rankings after are more short-term focused.
5. I will only incorporate a game played on Monday if the pitcher’s performance is completed before 2:00 pm EST.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• Would you look at this. I’ve changed nothing – NOTHING! – inside the first two tiers. Crazy, I know, and maybe Walker Buehler deserves the top spot, but I feel Max Scherzer hasn’t done anything wrong to get it removed + Buehler may be a little more limited in September. #Dodgeritis still exists, you know.
• I was tempted to move Lance Lynn and Chris Sale further down, but elected to stand pat. Be a little cautious of Sale’s dip in velocity, though, and make sure to monitor it moving forward. He should be sitting 94/95 mph, not 92 mph.

 

• So let’s get to the third tier then. Yu Darvish makes his return to The List as he’s starting against the Dodgers at some point this week. He has been far from the phenomenal ace across the last eight weeks and let’s see him get comfortable again before elevating him up the ranks.
• I gave massive bumps to both Adam Wainwright and Logan Webb, both of whom have been on fire and deserve your love with each start. I don’t trust them for 2022, but who cares, this is a redraft league.

 

• In the fourth tier, Alek Manoah and Luis Garcia each took a small tumble. Alek just got jumped for six runs against the Nationals as his slider failed to return a single whiff. I imagine it was just a small blip, but I can’t ignore the slight cause for concern. With Garcia, his slider and cutter are still excellent, but he’s leaning on his fastballs a bit too much as of late, causing a rough patch. I imagine his stuff will propel him forward in September…if the Astros continue to push his innings total higher – don’t overlook a possible shutdown.
• Don’t think much about José Berríos‘ tumble, that’s because of Webb + Waino moving up + Darvish returning.

 

• For tiers 5-7, I did what I did last week: I made tier 6 into the “Kinda Toby but better” tier and then asked if I’d rather chase the ceiling of others and stuck them in Tier 5 and placed all other in tier seven or lower. I felt Zac Gallen, Sonny Gray, Blake Snell and Josiah Gray each have done enough to warrant the risk in their favor with their last outings, granting them a spot in Tier 5.
• Gallen still needs to get his cutter and changeup working, but he’s dominated with his four-seamer + his curveball has been effective. Gray had a breaker come back in his last outing, Snell is leaning into the four-seamer/slider approach, and Josiah’s curveball currently holds a 45% CSW. It’s bonkers.

 

• In the aforementioned Tier 6, I’ve been impressed with Marcus Stroman over his last few starts. His slider has looked plenty better and the splitter has come along as well. Now with the Mets’ tough schedule behind them, he could excel in the final month of the year.
• Hyun Jin Ryu finally got his changeup back last start against the Tigers and I’m hoping it’s a proper corner turn instead of a moment of bliss.

 

• Kyle Hendricks shot back up The List again as I felt he belonged inside the “yeah, he’s not exciting but I’m starting him most of the time” tier. Nothing more than that.
• Right after Hendricks is Kenta Maeda, who would be higher if not for leaving his last start with a forearm injury. We’re in the dark about his status moving forward, leading to a sizeable fall.

 

• Continuing with the seventh tier is John Means, who is back to 93 mph, but hasn’t been locked in with his fastball + changeup command. It’s good to see him attack the zone with breakers, though, and once he finds that groove, he can soar up the ranks.
• I was shocked to see Taijuan Walker sit over 95 mph and if he can keep that velocity, he’ll return favorable starts through September, even if the Mets are…doing what they do.

 

• Cleveland teammates Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill keep driving higher each week. McKenzie is embracing the BSB with fastballs up and a massively improved curveball, while Quantrill’s slider and four-seamer combination has fueled a surge a production over the last month. I believe in Triston’s approach a bit more for the future, but don’t hesitate from starting either one right now.
• Another massive riser is Vladimir Gutiérrez, who has a gorgeous schedule ahead and has already begun taking advantage of his matchups. The command is legit and he could make a large impact for your playoffs.

 

• Joining The List this week is Edward Cabrera, who makes his MLB debut on Wednesday. It looks like a staggeringly high rank for someone who has never made a start in the bigs, though the state of the SP Landscape pushes you to take the chance on a guy like Cabrera – those below him don’t have a large enough gap between them and the waiver wire to justify the hold (save for a few in Tier 8, but we’ll talk about that soon). He sports a high-velocity fastball, a sweeping slider, and a developing changeup, with the biggest question coming in his command. Three of his last four minor starts came with 10+ strikeouts and his pitch counts have been comfortably over 85 pitches. Take the chance against the Nationals.

 

• Keep your eye on Carlos Hernández, who rises 21 spots after dominating the Cubs over the weekend. His mid-to-high 90s heaters are cruising through lineups, though I worry about their consistency + his breakers aren’t as precise as we’d like to see to rely on constant production. Still, it’s a decent schedule ahead and I’d take the chance where I can.
• I’ve elected to drop Jon Gray a decent amount as he hasn’t been as overwhelming as his July self over the past few weeks. Now we’re playing the game of matchups and that’s not a position we want to be in with Gray.

 

• In tier 8, we have another set of Toby arms, leading with Madison Bumgarner as he’s in the midst of a Vargas Rule. I’m not sure how long this will last with his 90 mph velocity, but I’d be starting him now with the Pirates and Phillies ahead of him.
• It’s hard to make out what to do with Eduardo Rodriguez as his four-seamer has been as good as we’ve seen, but his changeup + breaker has not. Will he recover from a wounding against the Rangers? Or will he continue to search for his changeup in September?

 

• They’re far from exciting, but Marco Gonzales and Zach Thompson are serviceable options for 12-teamers. Gonzo has been on a fantastic run and continues with dates against the A’s, Royals, and Sneks next, while Thompson regained his cutter in his last start and could replicate his June/July.
• And then there’s James Kaprielian, who I’m not sure what to make of. His overall season numbers are excellent, but he hasn’t been as solid with his fastball/slider lately. Let’s hope the Mariners + Tigers can get him back on track.

 

• In Tier 9, I had to give massive drops to both Yusei Kikuchi and Carlos Carrasco. Kikuchi has a pair of starts against Houston in his next three games and is not startable for either, while Carrasco has yet to find his slider and changeup inside a start. They both carry a wonderful ceiling, but be cautious.
• I imagine many are surprised to see a six-point drop for Touki Toussaint, and there are a couple of reasons for the dip. First, his recent outings came with a diminished emphasis on his curveball – his far-and-away best pitch. I question if it’s an approach that can sustain this level of production. Second, the schedule isn’t pretty ahead (Giants + Coors). Third, Touki may be out of the rotation altogether as Ian Anderson eyes a return this week or next. I think it’s best just to get ahead of this and abandon ship now.

 

• Surging ahead seventeen points is Nestor Cortes, who has been a bright spot in the Yankee rotation and looks to be safe for a turn or two (unless Luis Severino or Corey Kluber make their returns). I’d trust him against Oakland and hope he gets one more against the Angels, though I don’t see this as a long-term play.
• Also making the rise to the ninth tier is Patrick Corbin, who finally got the results we expected with his improved stuff. He sat 94 mph (not 91/92) and earned plenty of slider whiffs, and now sits pretty with the Marlins in his sights. Grab him where you can for that game.

 

• I elected to push Zach Plesac down a ton as our patience is wearing thin after a poor performance against the Twins. He does get the Rangers and Royals ahead, keeping him still relevant in our eyes, but if he can’t get his slider and changeup back against these teams, I have little faith he’ll find them before season’s end.

 

• Tier 10 is another Toby tier including the return of Miles Mikolas. It was a rather pedestrian season debut, but he’ll get the Pirates as second time and may provide dividends to trusting managers.
• I can’t say this week shifted my views on Cole Irvin, Tyler Anderson, and Jake Odorizzi a whole lot. They’re decent and play the matchups. That’s about it.

 

• I stuck the fun but not rosterable arms in Tier 11 as a way for y’all to see who could jump up The List in future weeks. My favorite right now is Daniel Lynch, who has to endure yet another poor set of matchups in the Astros + White Sox across the next week, but has a decent September lined up. His new fastball command and whiff-heavy slider could make him a wonderful surprise down the road.
• Luis Patiño had himself a decent start last time out, though I find it hard to trust him without his slider earning a single whiff. Is the fastball command good enough to make this work without the sweeper? I have my doubts.

 

• Two surprising names are Kris Bubic and Kyle Freeland, who both had remarkable outings that may hint at strong days ahead. Bubic’s heater came in two ticks harder and if his changeup keeps developing, there may be something there. Freeland leaned on his curveball more than any pitch and returned a 50%+ CSW with the hook. Monitor this.
• Eli Morgan is plenty more volatile than I’d like, but I won’t ignore his strikeout upside as of late. If his fastball command is there, he can take advantage of weak opponents.

 

• I was sad to see Reid Detmers fail to bring back his excellent curveball in his previous start, but I won’t overlook that it can happen again. We haven’t seen a whole lot of the 22-year-old and the wild card notion of his ability is one to take note of. Look out for high called strike totals on his yacker moving forward.
• Hey Logan Gilbert, can you please find your slider? I won’t judge your final line against Houston, just have that slider return to its former form. K, thx.

 

• In the final tier, I led with Chris Flexen who is as fringe in a 12-teamer as you’ll find. He was a Vargas Rule earlier in the year as he went on a run and now he’s a possible start when the matchups align. Feel free to hold him above those in Tier 11, though I’d prefer not to roster any outside the Top 80 in 12-teamers – I’d prefer to just go the streamer route instead if I had the open spot. Given the rostership rates across leagues (Carlos Hernández was sub 20% on Sunday!), that shouldn’t be hard to do.
• Brad Keller has leaned heavily on his slider and had some success against poor lineups because of it. Make sure he’s on your list of streaming options.

 

• The same goes for José Suarez, though he has a bit more concern regarding his pitch counts. Not my favorite streamer, but someone to consider.
• Casey Mize and Andrew Heaney both dropped this week as they sit in the final tier. Mize simply isn’t performing like his June self, while Heaney hasn’t changed anything in his approach to suggest he can be more Cherry than Bomb.

 

• At the very bottom of The List, there’s Ryan Yarbrough and Jesús Luzardo. While “The Fratty Pirate” is not much to write home about, he can be a sneaky option for Wins and should be in some consideration for those in SP/RP leagues.
• Luzardo has done little to nothing to earn your trust at this point, but as the #100 slot demands, he still carries intrigue. We’re all waiting for that one start where it all clicks and his mid-90s heater + whiffable slider & changeup blossom into legitimacy.

 

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Max ScherzerT1	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
2	Walker Buehler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
3	Gerrit Cole	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
4	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
5	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
6	Robbie Ray	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
7	Lance Lynn T2	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
8	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
9	Chris Sale	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-
10	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
11	Lucas Giolito	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
12	Luis Castillo	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-
13	Jack Flaherty	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-
14	Charlie Morton T3	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
15	Lance McCullers Jr.	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-
16	Frankie Montas	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-
17	Shohei Ohtani	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+1
18	Max Fried	Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+1
19	Sandy Alcantara	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
20	Shane McClanahan	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+6
21	Adam Wainwright	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+11
22	Logan Webb	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+11
23	Yu Darvish	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+UR
24	Alek Manoah T4	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-4
25	Aaron Nola	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
26	José Berríos	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-2
27	Joe Musgrove	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+1
28	Julio Urías	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	+UR
29	Luis García	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-8
30	Alex Wood	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-1
31	Sean Manaea	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Ratio Focused	-1
32	Huascar Ynoa	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+5
33	Tyler Mahle	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
34	Framber Valdez T5	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
35	Germán Márquez	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-
36	Nathan Eovaldi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+3
37	Zac Gallen	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+10
38	Sonny Gray	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+12
39	Josiah Gray	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+13
40	Tanner Houck	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-
41	Dylan Cease	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	-3
42	Blake Snell	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+11
43	Hyun Jin Ryu T6	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+1
44	Marcus Stroman	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+18
45	Wade Miley	Injury Risk Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-4
46	Jameson Taillon	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-3
47	Zack Greinke	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-2
48	Kyle Hendricks	Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+13
49	Kenta Maeda T7	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-15
50	John Means	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option	-1
51	Taijuan Walker	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+5
52	Triston McKenzie	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+7
53	Cal Quantrill	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+16
54	Tarik Skubal	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+3
55	Vladimir Gutierrez	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+19
56	Jordan Montgomery	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+4
57		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Stash Option	+UR
58	Elieser Hernández	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+7
59	Jon Gray	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-8
60	Carlos Hernández	Strikeout Upside Stash Option	+21
61	Madison Bumgarner T8	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Toby Streaming Option	+7
62	Eduardo Rodriguez	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-8
63	James Kaprielian	Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-8
64	Steven Matz	Injury Risk Cherry Bomb Toby	+2
65	Marco Gonzales	Toby Ratio Focused	+13
66	Zach Thompson	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+13
67	Yusei Kikuchi T9	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option	-21
68	Carlos Carrasco	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	-20
69	Touki Toussaint	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-6
70	Tylor Megill	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+3
71	Patrick Corbin	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option	+18
72	Zach Plesac	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option	-14
73	Kyle Gibson	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-3
74	Nick Pivetta	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+1
75	Austin Gomber	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-8
76	Nestor Cortes	Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+15
77	Cole Irvin T10	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+3
78	Miles Mikolas	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
79	Tyler Anderson	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-2
80	Jake Odorizzi	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-4
81	Daniel Lynch IV T11	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+3
82	Luis Patiño	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+4
83	Kris Bubic	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
84	Kyle Freeland	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option Stash Option	+UR
85	Logan Gilbert	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	-
86	Eli Morgan	Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+9
87		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option Stash Option	-5
88	Chris Flexen T12	Cherry Bomb Toby Ratio Focused	-5
89	Brad Keller	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
90	Casey Mize	Low Ips Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-18
91	Griffin Jax	Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Toby Streaming Option	+3
92	Bailey Ober	Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-
93	Dallas Keuchel	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+4
94	Andrew Heaney	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-7
95	J.A. Happ	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+4
96	José Suarez	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
97	Mike Minor	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-7
98	David Price	Low Ips Playing Time Question	-34
99	Ryan Yarbrough	Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
100	Jesús Luzardo	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Stash Option	-12

Photo by Allan Dranberg/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)