The List 7/6: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – Week 15

It’s the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball and it’s time for Week 15’s starting pitcher rankings.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00am – 11:00am EST Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream for The List.

As always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

For those unaware:

• Cherry Bomb = A volatile pitcher who is either super sweet or blows up in your face. There are few middle grounds.
• Toby = A middling pitcher who you can’t decide if they do enough to stay on your team and give you the itch to drop every single day. Named after Toby from The Office.

Here are the rules for those wondering why a pitcher is or isn’t ranked here:

1. If a pitcher is on the IL or out of the rotation and not confirmed for a start this week, they are pushed into the Fringe table.
2. If a pitcher is in a rotation and not confirmed to start but has not been placed on the IL or officially removed, they remain on The List.
3. These rankings are made as if I am drafting a team today for the rest of the season.
4. This means the Top 40-50 picks are more for ROS, while the rankings after are more short-term focused.
5. I will only incorporate a game played on Monday if the pitcher’s performance is completed before 2:00pm EST.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• Tier 1 is the same because duh.
• I elected this week to separate out the massive Tier 2 into two distinct zones. The first has arms who have consistently been volume heavy and we all expect to ride through to the end…save for Brandon Woodruff who may have one or two starts missed, but his quality has been so good that I couldn’t remove him from the #5 spot. Yes, even after his recent 4 ER game, that was an oddity. It does mean Zack Wheeler jumps over him, though.

 

• I wanted to give Lance Lynn some love as he’s been one of the sturdiest rocks across the league this season and is one of the safest bets for 200 frames. That floor is just too good.
• Few will be surprised to see a fall from Gerrit Cole and Lucas Giolito, though I personally expected myself to lower them further – it’s all relative in the end, though, as I didn’t feel comfortable raising Kevin Gausman too far ahead, while Clayton Kershaw hasn’t been a stud and Carlos Rodón has had his biggest hiccups of the season as of late.

 

• Tier 4 is relatively identical as everyone received a boost from Trevor Bauer getting pulled from the ranks. Please note the inherent +1 given to all outside the Top 12.
• The only pitchers I touched here were Framber Valdez and Robbie Ray, who swapped spots this week. Framber hasn’t been quite as consistent of a strikeout arm while the legend of Ray grows every day. About time he embraced the R&R initials.

 

• I didn’t change much with Tier 5, though Zac Gallen was removed after Manaea, creating plenty of green for those below. No green for Shohei Ohtani, though, as he fell five spots after a disaster start where he couldn’t find the strike zone. I wasn’t planning on reacting so strongly to this outing, and this is more praise for the others in the tier than against Shohei.
• Speaking of which, Sonny Gray returned from the IL and had his slider working beautifully. He’s still not fully stretched out (the Reds expressed that he tossed more pitches than intended in his return) and he may continue climbing if he continues to impress.

 

• I should mention that Aaron Nola doesn’t drop despite the horrific start against the Marlins. That fifth inning was weird as he allowed a ton of hits on pitches outside the zone + he had ten strikeouts through the fourth inning. He’s the best buy-low pitcher out there at the moment.

 

• The sixth tier is filled with pitchers who could take the leap in future weeks as they keep earning our trust. Shane McClanahan and Luis Castillo have each look much better as of late, though I am waiting for Castillo to fully redeem his changeup of old. Keep starting both and hope they continue their ascension.
• Zach Plesac is set to start this week and will be limited to around 60 pitches for Cleveland. It’s unclear if he’ll be like his 2020 self or not, especially now that he’s on the other side of gloopgate. The upside is apparent and let’s hope he climbs up the ranks each week.

 

• Both Ian Anderson and José Berríos fell down the ranks this week. Anderson’s fall isn’t due to much this week, more that he’s consistently “good” and not great as other arms deserved more love. As for Berríos, he’s in the same boat with a touch lower upside. I don’t quite see the path to excellence there.
• Anthony DeSclafani will also turn heads as he hints at a Top 40 spot. I’m not a true believer that he’s a must-start through the end of the year with a simplistic four-seamer/slider combo, but he’s certainly earned the confidence of managers and sits above those in Tier 7.

 

• We have intrigue and hints of Toby in the seventh tier as Hyun Jin Ryu and Zack Greinke have too much talent to drop but give you uneasiness with each start. If only Ryu could find his changeup once again…
• Marcus Stroman fell a bit more after failing to record a strikeout against the Yankees over the weekend. He got survived five frames with just a sinker and we’re still waiting for him to get into a groove again.

 

• It’s time for some fun in Tier 8 as Kenta Maeda hints at returning to stardom. His last performance against the Royals came with his old slider and splitter and all we can do now is hope it wasn’t just a moment under the sun.
• It will always feel weird figuring out what to do with Germán Márquez, but I can’t deny his dominance despite an 8 ER blowup in Cincy. His slider is as good as we’ve ever seen it.

 

 

• I’m excited to see Alex Wood get his slider back in his latest start, though I can’t raise him too much as he lost it for so long beforehand. It was just one start of redemption, after all (he previous successful start was an anomaly with his changeup!).
• What are we to do with Blake Snell? The talent is there, it’s down to his command and living in the zone. If he can take a page from Robbie Ray’s book and throw fastballs for strikes without hesitation, this could turn around in a hurry.

 

• I was thrilled to see Adbert Alzolay look like his May self in his recent start, hinting that he’s recovered from his blister to return to form. If he was dropped in your league, I’d rush to grab him now as the slider/fastball punch hits hard.
• It’s hard not to be a Joe Ross fan after his recent stretch of success. His sinker and four-seamer command has been excellent while his slider is earning whiffs once again. After having success against the Dodgers, it’s hard not to trust him in the short term, if not through the final three months.

 

• Tier 9 is…interesting. It’s the tier filled with should be productive arms but in the end could be forcing you to pull your hair out. For example, teammates Nathan Eovaldi and Eduardo Rodriguez each have displayed legit production, though Eovaldi is a bit too reliant on fleeting secondary command, while Eduardo hasn’t quite hit a point where his four-seamer and changeup are working in tandem. They’re still very much rosterable, just not as secure as you want them to be.
• Wade Miley is another example as he’s making his play for Spider-Man as his strikeout rate sits well below 20%. You won’t be thrilled to see a Miley start on the docket, but you’ll take it.

 

• Enough of the boring guys, Tier 10 is where the real fun lies as it’s a collection of young arms who make us excited…and come with a terrifying floor that we want to forget. Nick Pivetta needs little introduction, though he performed at his peak against the Athletics where he peppered the top of the zone with heaters and kept his breakers in the bottom half of the zone. Let’s hope it sticks.
• Zach Thompson has gotten a decent amount of attention as he’s boasted a surprisingly robust repertoire fueled by solid cutter and four-seamer command. He’s had a bit of a rough schedule but the second half could be where he turns the corner.

 

• Tylor Megill and Bailey Ober each impressed me in their Monday outings, both displaying fantastic command of their fastballs while getting whiffs with secondary pitches – Megill and his changeup + Ober and a collection of slow balls and breakers. The rug can be pulled out from under them quickly (and I still like Kyle Muller more when he returns in just about two weeks) but I’d be taking chances on them for now.
• And then there’s Jon Gray, who is still sporting a harder fastball than before his time on the IL. Take a shot with him if he’s around your wire.

 

• If you’re wondering where “The Cliff” is, you’ve found it in Tier 11. If you’re rostering any pitchers below this, you should be actively looking at streamers, spec adds, and upside plays to chase instead.
• Take Ross Stripling, for example. While his results have been worthwhile as of late, he’s only had one outing where his secondaries mixed in well with his heater. There’s a chance he gets it together, but the risk is too much for me at the moment.

 

• Returning from the IL this week is Michael Pineda, who had one rehab start and could have his slider back to its old self the moment he starts again. The floor is awfully low, though, so take caution – it’s a Still ILL for me.
• We received some bad news about Casey Mize – The Tigers will be limiting his innings in starts instead of a hard stop, which means he can now be known as a HIPSTER as each start will have us struggling to deduce how many possible innings he’ll go and if they’ll even be worth it. Rough.

 

• The twelfth tier is more of the same, just a little less exciting. Kwang Hyun Kim has proven himself a Toby and that’s fine with me. Merrill Kelly can be a worthy streamer, though I don’t believe he’ll get to a point where I’d want to hold through the year. The same goes for Drew Smyly as of late but…yeah. I don’t want to do that. Nothing has changed with his approach in the slightest.
• Andrew Heaney has fallen far as he’s proven untrustworthy and the ultimate Cherry Bomb. Maybe that’s your thing as his WHIP isn’t atrocious + he’ll earn a 25-30% strikeout rate this year, though that ERA will hurt in future outings.

 

• It’s great not only seeing Danny Duffy return but also maintaining the velocity spike we saw in April. The bad news: The Royals are limiting his pitches in starts as a way to keep him on the field, making his start a questionable investment. Bummer.
• I had no choice but to give a huge dip to Rich Hill, who hasn’t been the same since his spin rates have massively dropped since the league’s enforcement. We didn’t expect Hill to last injury-free through the rest of the year anyway, and I was forced to send him down the ranks.

 

• Vladimir Gutiérrez returns to The List as he displayed a Toby-esque ability against the Royals. I love his pitch separation and he should at least be on your radar moving forward.
• He’s not the sexiest guy out there, but Johnny Cueto is still a decent streaming option when presented opportunities given his high SwStr on four-seamers. That’s all.

 

• In the final tier, Ryan Yarbrough leads off as he hasn’t been given the volume and doesn’t come with strikeouts. It’s a tough gamble for ratios each time out.
• Alec Mills, Tyler Anderson, and Ryan Weathers each return as they’ve been given spots inside their respective rotations. Mills oddly earned a King Cole this week while Weathers could develop into a stable 5/6 inning arm. Anderson can surprise at times with a decent start against weak teams and there’s obvious value in that.

 

• It was time to recognize that Dallas Keuchel just isn’t the Spider-Man of old. Maybe he can get back there, but for now, there’s little reason to chase it save for a possible cheap Win.
• Finally, Kolby Allard (aka Dralla) secures the final spot as he just earned a King Cole on Monday. His four-seamer has a 31% CSW on the year and there are times when his slider and/or changeup do enough to make his starts worthwhile. Can’t say I believe in the long-term but maybe he can build off this nine-strikeout performance.

 

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Jacob deGromT1	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
2	Yu Darvish T2	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
3	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
4	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
5	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
6	Lance Lynn	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
7	Gerrit Cole T3	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-3
8	Lucas Giolito	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
9	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
10	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
11	Carlos Rodón	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
12	Walker Buehler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-2
13	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+1
14	Trevor Rogers T4	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
15	Freddy Peralta	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+1
16	Robbie Ray	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
17	Framber Valdez	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
18	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+1
19	Julio Urías	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+1
20	Sandy Alcantara	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
21	Joe Musgrove	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+1
22	Pablo López	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
23	Lance McCullers Jr.	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+1
24	Sean Manaea T5	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Ratio Focused	+1
25	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
26	Kyle Gibson	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
27	Aaron Nola	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
28	Yusei Kikuchi	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
29	Tyler Mahle	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
30	Sonny Gray	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+UR
31	Shohei Ohtani	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-5
32	Chris Bassitt T6	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+5
33	Taijuan Walker	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
34	Shane McClanahan	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+6
35	Luis Castillo	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+7
36	Ian Anderson	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-4
37	Zach Plesac	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+UR
38	Tarik Skubal	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	-
39	Dylan Cease	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
40	José Berríos	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-7
41	Anthony DeSclafani	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+7
42	Hyun Jin Ryu T7	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-8
43	Zack Greinke	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-2
44	Luis García	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-
45	Adam Wainwright	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+4
46	Alek Manoah	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+4
47	Kyle Hendricks	Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
48	Marcus Stroman	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-3
49	Kenta Maeda T8	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+3
50	Germán Márquez	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+15
51	Chris Paddack	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	-
52	Alex Wood	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+5
53	Blake Snell	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-7
54	Adbert Alzolay	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+24
55	Patrick Sandoval	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-1
56	James Kaprielian	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Toby Streaming Option	+6
57	Joe Ross	Strikeout Upside Toby Streaming Option	+18
58	Jake Odorizzi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	-3
59	Frankie Montas	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-1
60	Wade Miley T9	Injury Risk Toby Ratio Focused	-7
61	Logan Gilbert	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+7
62	Nathan Eovaldi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+7
63	Eduardo Rodriguez	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+8
64	JT Brubaker	Toby Ratio Focused	-5
65	Zach Eflin	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
66	Domingo Germán	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-
67	Nick Pivetta T10	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+9
68	Zach Thompson	Playing Time Question Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+11
69	Tylor Megill	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+UR
70	Jon Gray	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+13
71	Bailey Ober	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
72	Patrick Corbin T11	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option	-9
73	Michael Pineda	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+UR
74	Ross Stripling	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-10
75	Jordan Montgomery	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Ratio Focused	-5
76	Cole Irvin	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-3
77	Tony Gonsolin	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+3
78	Jameson Taillon	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	-4
79	Casey Mize	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-23
80	Kwang Hyun Kim T12	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
81	Steven Matz	Injury Risk Cherry Bomb	+8
82	Merrill Kelly	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+9
83	Andrew Heaney	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-23
84		Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+13
85	Vladimir Gutierrez	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
86	Johnny Cueto	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+6
87	Danny Duffy	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	-6
88	Caleb Smith	Streaming Option	-1
89	Rich Hill	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-28
90	Alex Cobb	Streaming Option	+5
91	Chris Flexen	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+9
92	Ryan Yarbrough T13	Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused	+1
93	Alec Mills	Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
94	Ryan Weathers	Low Ips Playing Time Question Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
95	Martín Pérez	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+4
96	Dallas Keuchel	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-24
97	Tyler Anderson	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
98	Marco Gonzales	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-14
99	Mike Minor	Streaming Option	-3
100	Kolby Allard	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR

Photo by All-Pro Reels (https://www.flickr.com/photos/joeglo/) | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)