The List 7/27 – Ranking The Top 100 Starting Pitchers Every Monday

We’re back in the regular groove of Monday afternoon updates of The List! As always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• It feels weird to make so many changes so early in the year, but given that each game is 2.7x as valuable as previous seasons, there’s less time to wait for pitchers to settle into a groove and more of a necessity to embrace pitchers who are already in mid-season form
• For those initiated, a Toby is a middling pitcher who is borderline a waiver wire arm. A Cherry Bomb is a volatile arm who is either super sweet or blows up in your face.

 

• Some major innate (+4) jumps for everyone as Justin Verlander, Stephen Strasburg, Clayton Kershaw, and Corey Kluber were all removed due to injury. There are a lot of 50+ ranked arms that made leaps as well, so keep this in mind instead of just seeing the # changes!
• If you’d like to see a more in-depth outline of my ranks, I live-streamed my process on Twitter today. It doesn’t get everything as I didn’t have Jesus Luzardo and Yonny Chirinos (they’ll be off the IL this week!), but it should help you get an understanding of how I’m ranking players
• What are these ranks rooted in? Mostly overall ability in the first 50 players, then their upcoming schedule + upside is heavily weighted in the back half. It’s why I’d love to raise Garrett Richards higher but his upcoming trip to Coors followed by a date with the Dodgers forced me to hold him back

 

• Prospects are a big part of the discussion right now and the three big names are Spencer Howard, Nate Pearson, and Forrest Whitley.
  • Howard will be debuting on Friday and I’m very curious about how he performs. He’s worth a stash now.
  • It’s unclear if Whitley will get to call to jump into the rotation to take Verlander’s spot. Be cautious considering Whitley has been considerably shaky since the start of 2019.
  • We believe Pearson will get the call this week, but with Ken Giles getting injured, it could be in the closer’s role instead of the rotation.

 

• Zack Wheeler gets a major boost as our concerns of him missing time dissipated, further cementing his floor with a solid start against the Marlins.
• I’m a little worried about Yu Darvish and Lucas Giolito, who each failed to impress in their first starts. I dropped them more than I normally would this early in the year since we have less time to allow them to figure it out.

 

• Yes, I gave a major boost to Kyle Hendricks. I could see myself slotting him closer to #35, but to be at his prime this early in the year deserved some bonus points above the shaky Madison Bumgarner and pitch-limited Mike Soroka.
• With James Paxton’s diminished velocity at 91/92, it’s hard not to be concerned that he’s still affected by his back injury, forcing him to fall dramatically.

 

• Dinelson Lamet and Robbie Ray are vastly similar pitchers at the end of the day and I can see either one skyrocketing up The List this year. Ray’s new mechanics make me wonder if there’s another gear to reach, while Lamet’s overall stuff prevents his erratic command from destroying his outings.
• I am concerned about the lack of breaking balls from Matthew Boyd’s first start of the year, but I have to respect that his slider and curveball could be better as soon as his next outing, erasing our concerns.
• The same goes for Caleb Smith’s fastball command as his overall stuff was still impressive.

 

• Ross Stripling and Sandy Alcantara each saw big gains as well. I doubted the trust the Dodgers would put in Stripling, which proved foolish after seven strong innings over the weekend. Alcantara’s increased velocity is all kinds of tantalizing, while his improved changeup and excellent sinker command make me excited for future outings.
• I also shot Spencer Turnbull up the ranks for removing his sinker in favor of four-seamers and sliders. It spoke to success yesterday and could continue.

 

• It may be strange to see many names who haven’t even pitched yet to be pushed down The List, but the reasoning is simple. Those I propelled in front of them performed at a level I don’t expect from those who haven’t pitched. I hope they prove me wrong (I’m looking at you, Aaron Civale and Josh Lindblom).
• Alex Wood’s velocity sat at 90 mph yesterday, two ticks lower than the 92-94 we heard about all spring. It’s unfortunate, really.

 

• Hats off the Dallas Keuchel for looking like his prime self against the Twins, nibbling the edges and forcing weak contact.
• And let’s give some praise to Dylan Bundy for looking nothing like his former self against the Athletics, featuring sub 50% heaters and dominating with curveballs and sliders. You love to see it.

 

• Two more fallers came from Shohei Ohtani and Sean Manaea. 
  • Shohei looked like a pitcher not quite ready to return from Tommy John, needing a few more tune-up starts to get his velocity & timing back. I hope it returns, but it may take a few weeks.
  • Manea also struggled with his velocity, which wasn’t high in the first place. It’s something to monitor as Manaea could be effective without 90+ mph heat, but there’s a lesser chance of it.

 

• Some fascinating names make up Tier 10, including Tyler Chatwood, Yusei Kikuchi, Alex Cobb, Wade LeBlanc, and Matt Shoemaker
  • Chatwood featured his cutter at a higher rate than ever at 30% yesterday and it came with success. I won’t rule out completely that it was a fluke
  • Kikuchi held 96 mph velocity against the Astros – two ticks higher than expected.
  • Cobb and LeBlanc were able to dampen the Red Sox offense and could be used as streamers in the future.
  • The Cobbler known as Shoemaker should be considered as a streaming option, but nothing more.

 

• We have many other names joining The List this week:
  • Jesus Luzardo is likely to jump into AJ Puk’s rotation spot after his missed time with COVID-19. It’ll likely be a start or two before he truly gets back up to speed, though.
  • Brady Singer made his MLB debut and held a 40% CSW rate. Be sure to read my 2,800 word GIF Breakdown outlining why I’d be chasing him wherever I can.
  • I was pleasantly surprised by Steven Matz’s increased velocity and he’s forced his way onto many 12-teamers because of it
  • With Anthony DeSclafani hurt, Tyler Mahle will get chances in the rotation that could pay dividends.
  • I’m not sure he’ll go long into games, but I do like seeing Yonny Chirinos jumping back into the rotation right away. Don’t chase for Atlanta, but he’ll be solid after.
  • Jose Urquidy has been cleared for action, but I placed him last as we just don’t know when he’ll be truly ready to go.

 

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Gerrit ColeT1	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
2	Jacob deGrom	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
3	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
4	Mike Clevinger T2	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
5	Shane Bieber	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
6	Jack Flaherty	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
7	Patrick Corbin	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+4
8	Luis Castillo	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+6
9	Walker Buehler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+6
10	Charlie Morton T3	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-3
11	Blake Snell	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-1
12	Chris Paddack	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+5
13	Aaron Nola	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+6
14	Sonny Gray	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+6
15	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+28
16	Yu Darvish	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-3
17	Lucas Giolito	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
18	Lance Lynn	Aces Gonna Ace Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
19	Carlos Carrasco	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+3
20	Trevor Bauer	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+6
21	Frankie Montas T4	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
22	Tyler Glasnow	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+7
23	Zac Gallen	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+4
24	Zack Greinke	Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts	+1
25	José Berríos	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+5
26	Kenta Maeda	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+5
27	Kyle Hendricks	Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+18
28	Madison Bumgarner	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
29	Michael Soroka	Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+4
30	Brandon Woodruff	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+4
31	Luke Weaver T5	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+5
32	Lance McCullers Jr.	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+8
33	Mike Minor	Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+8
34	Dinelson Lamet	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+15
35	Robbie Ray	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+13
36	James Paxton	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-13
37	Julio Urías	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+7
38	Max Fried	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	-
39	Joe Musgrove T6	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-
40	Carlos Martínez	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
41	Hyun Jin Ryu	Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-4
42	Matthew Boyd	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-7
43	Andrew Heaney	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+10
44	Sandy Alcantara	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+15
45	Germán Márquez	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+9
46	Shohei Ohtani	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-14
47	Ryan Yarbrough	Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused	+18
48	Ross Stripling	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+40
49	Caleb Smith	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-2
50	Spencer Turnbull T7	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+19
51	Jesús Luzardo	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+UR
52	Jordan Montgomery	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	+5
53	Mitch Keller	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-1
54	Garrett Richards	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+6
55	Griffin Canning	Ace Potential Injury Risk Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+7
56	Sean Manaea	Ace Potential Injury Risk Ratio Focused	-10
57	Mike Foltynewicz	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-1
58	Rich Hill	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+5
59	Brady Singer	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+UR
60	Steven Matz	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
61	Dylan Bundy	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+32
62	Dylan Cease	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-7
63	Josh Lindblom	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+3
64	Corbin Burnes	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+18
65	Josh James	Ace Potential Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-1
66	Adrian Houser	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+9
67	Pablo López	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+1
68	Spencer Howard	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+17
69	Nate Pearson	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+15
70	Dallas Keuchel T8	Toby Ratio Focused	+25
71	Zach Plesac	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-1
72	Aaron Civale	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-1
73	Kyle Gibson	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+1
74	Homer Bailey	Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+5
75	Dustin May	Low Ips Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+14
76	Tyler Mahle	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+UR
77	Chris Bassitt	Strikeout Upside Toby Streaming Option	-
78	Alex Wood	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	-20
79	Joey Lucchesi T9	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-3
80	Carlos Rodón	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+7
81	Austin Voth	Strikeout Upside Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+15
82	Yonny Chirinos	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+UR
83	Wade Miley	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-3
84	J.A. Happ	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-6
85	Nathan Eovaldi	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-12
86	Asher Wojciechowski	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+4
87	Forrest Whitley	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+UR
88	Jon Gray	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-5
89	John Means T10	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-22
90	Jordan Lyles	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+1
91	Tyler Chatwood	Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
92	Aníbal Sánchez	Toby Ratio Focused	+5
93	Freddy Peralta	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-12
94	Yusei Kikuchi	Toby Streaming Option	+UR
95	Alex Cobb	Toby Streaming Option	+UR
96	Wade LeBlanc	Toby Streaming Option	+UR
97	Matt Shoemaker	Injury Risk Toby Streaming Option	+UR
98	Michael Fulmer T11	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-
99	Chad Kuhl	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-
100	José Urquidy	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+UR

Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)