The List 7/26: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – Week 18

It’s the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball and it’s time for Week 18 starting pitcher rankings.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00 am – 11:00 am EST Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream for The List.

As always, make sure to read the notes as many changes have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

For those unaware:

• Cherry Bomb = A volatile pitcher who is either super sweet or blows up in your face. There are few middle grounds.
• Toby = A middling pitcher who you can’t decide if they do enough to stay on your team and give you the itch to drop every single day. Named after Toby from The Office.

Here are the rules for those wondering why a pitcher is or isn’t ranked here:

1. If a pitcher is on the IL or out of the rotation and not confirmed for a start this week, they are pushed into the Fringe table.
2. If a pitcher is in a rotation and not confirmed to start but has not been placed on the IL or officially removed, they remain on The List.
3. These rankings are made as if I am drafting a team today for the rest of the season.
4. This means the Top 40-50 picks are more for ROS, while the rankings after are more short-term focused.
5. I will only incorporate a game played on Monday if the pitcher’s performance is completed before 2:00 pm EST.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• I’m not exactly sure what to make of the top tier at the moment. It just all feels so…off. There’s no ultra dominance of Shane Bieber, Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom, or Justin Verlander, we don’t have a stupid incredible stretch like the ole Gerrit Cole, and even the ole reliables like Yu Darvish and Max Scherzer have their issues, like Darvish failing to excel against the Marlins and Scherzer dealing with an injury to preserve his health for the trade deadline. It’s weird.
• So weird that I’ve elected to put Zack Wheeler and Brandon Woodruff at #2 and #3 this week. Gasp. They’re both constantly going deep into games and piling up the strikeouts and feel like true workhorses aces, unlike the others. Woodruff has a touch of innings concern given the “100 inning slap” the Brewers are giving to all their starters, apparently, but it’s unclear if they’ll actually implement that in September.

 

• I gave a drop to Kevin Gausman down to #11 as he’s had a rough pair of starts. He was previously put on personal leave and returned the day of his first outing and didn’t get back in rhythm in time for his weekend outing. I’m wagering he’ll get back to business shortly, but it may take another start.
• It may be weird to see a single AGA label in the second tier, but given how the Brewers have expressed their desire to limit Corbin Burnes‘ innings, I felt it was important to separate the two parties. I wouldn’t make any moves if I rostered him – he’s going to help in a major way until he hits that threshold, whatever it is – but I can’t ignore the inevitability that he’ll pitch fewer frames than those in tier one.

 

• We have three major jumps in tier three this week. Our featured player Luis Castillo rises nine spots as he’s dominated with four-seamers as his changeup and slider have stepped up over the last month. He’s looking like the man we drafted after all this time and while I expected it to appear in May, I’m here with a hug.
• One major surprise is the ascension of Sean Manaea, who has given me no choice but to place him inside the Top 15 after earning yet another Golden Goal over the weekend against the Mariners. He was sitting 90/91 mph in April and has been 92/93 mph over the last two months, returning ridiculous results. His SwStr is suddenly 14% and boasts a 21% K-BB% rate. It’s unreal.

 

• Jumping eight spots is Shohei Ohtani who has turned it on since the start of June with a 30% K rate and sub 7% walk rate across seven starts. Things are clicking and here’s to a smooth ride to the end for the clear AL MVP (sorry Vlad).
• Take note: Joe Musgrove’s bump is more about players shifting around him, not my belief in his recent changes. I still want him to throw 30%+ fastballs, not sub 20%. His secondaries need his velocity to stand out more.

 

• I had to shake things up a bit in Tier 3 this week, leading with Frankie Montas, who has finally found himself over the past few weeks. His splitter and slider have propelled his success, locating as well as I’ve ever seen him. He’s often known for a solid floor and paired with a phenomenal ceiling turns Montas into a fantastic arm.
• I gave some love to Luis Garcia this week as well, despite my concerns that he’ll get shut down by the Astros at some point across the next two months. His slider and cutter have performed incredibly well and while I’m still skeptical his fastball can keep up its success, Garcia is making managers thrilled.

 

• I couldn’t be happier to see Alex Wood have his slider back in elite form while he sits 92 mph on his fastball. Start him until something changes.
• And of course, we have to talk about The Panada himself, Patrick Sandoval. His 37% CSW on both his changeup and slider is simply unheard of and his 94/95 mph fastball has been good enough to support his secondaries. Throw in a curveball he earns called strikes on over 1/3 of the time and you have a complete pitcher. My only worry is if the fastball command wobbles a bit through the final months. Stay strong, Panada.

 

• We’re getting shorter tiers as we hit #30 as Yusei Kikuchi takes the top spot in Tier 4. I was worried about his declining velocity in his previous two outings, but he showed up with a 95/96 mph heater and a changeup that returned twelve whiffs out of nowhere. Seeing the extra tool in his arsenal + the rediscovered heater makes me buy back in.
• It’s no secret Kenta Maeda has performed better across the last few weeks though it’s not quite the return to form that we’re seeing from Luis Castillo. I’m cautiously optimistic he can continue on his current path and rise with each edition of The List.

 

• Tier 5 is where it starts to get a bit weird. Zac Gallen and John Means have not been exciting since their returns from the IL and are making some managers want to cut bait. I wouldn’t do that – just give them another start or two – as their ability far exceeds what you’ll likely find on the wire. It’s a rough spell, not a death sentence.
• It’s still crazy to look at, but James Kaprielian has a 2.65 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 26% strikeout rate across 12 starts this year. I don’t quite believe he’s that caliber of a pitcher with mostly just a four-seamer and slider (his changeup is a bit inconsistent for my tastes) that aren’t the most exceptional I’ve seen, but hey, the man is producing and deserves our love.

 

• Tier 6 comes with more questions. I don’t believe Sonny Gray will have a worse start all year than his 8 ER disaster, but how soon will he recover? I believe he’s still very much worth your roster spot on the ceiling alone and to get into a groove since his IL stint, but I definitely understand if you’d rather have the safety of Nathan Eovaldi or Wade Miley instead.
• The same goes for Zach Plesac, who has done little to inspire confidence since his return from the IL, but I believe he’ll find the rhythm you’re looking for shortly.

 

• We’re in Tier 7 now and the cliff has yet to hit. Many stable arms can be found here, from the likes of Zack Greinke and Kyle Hendricks going six frames constantly, or the surprises of Kwang Hyun Kim and Wade Miley, the former even earning seven strikeouts in two of his last three games.
• At the top are Jon Gray and Nathan Eovaldi, two pitchers I didn’t expect to have a top 50 spot this season. Gray should be out of Colorado this week and is pitching as well as ever with an elite slider and his hardest fastball of the season. Eovaldi has become comfortable with his secondaries and has become a stable arm for many 12-teamer managers, though I wonder how long it will last.

 

• Look at Tier 7. Now look at Tier 8. Now back at me. Now back at Tier 8. Those are the pitchers who want to be Tier 7 and higher but are going through some things. Taijuan Walker hasn’t fanned more than five since June 15th, even if I don’t believe his last two starts are an indication of poor ratios to come. Logan Gilbert’s slider was marvelous until his last outing and I worry he’ll be more volatile than we’d like. And boy I hope Marcus Stroman’s slider from his last start can stick around for a long time.
• Hyun Jin Ryu and Kyle Gibson saw massive dips as our confidence is waning thin. Ryu’s changeup came back for one outing…then disappeared against the Mets as our anxiety worsened. Gibson had two starts combing for 13 ER against the Tigers before he walked eight batters over the weekend. I’m not sure we need much more evidence that this carriage is turning into a pumpkin, but I understand if managers want to take one more chance on finding that magic this week.

 

• Finally, we’ve made it to Tier 9, the most wonderful tier of them all. Here you’ll find the meadow of upside, sprouting at the end of July and hopefully surviving the summer nights. Trust your gut when deciding which arms you want to pick here and I have no qualms with anyone who wants Touki Toussaint over Adbert Alzolay (I don’t trust Touki’s fastball command & I loved seeing Alzolay dominate with a new cutter + his excellent slider!). Just take your pick(s) here and let’s all hope for the best.
• This is the place I elected to slot Freddy Peralta as he was limited to sub 60 pitches last time out. I have no idea what the plan is for Peralta the rest of the way – maybe he’s limited for a few weeks, then built up again as the Brewers head to the playoffs. Maybe it’s one start of rest before a full start, then another half start. It’s a massive shrug and up to you if you want to deal with this HIPSTER.

 

• Tier 10 is like Tier 9, but with lower ceilings. The Yankee trio of Jordan Montgomery, Domingo Germán, and Jameson Taillon each have their own pros and cons (Monty = ceiling, Germán = a balance of the two, Taillon = floor).
• I’m incredibly intrigued by Daniel Lynch, who coasted for eight innings against the Tigers over the weekend. He favored four-seamers inside to right-handers effectively with a breaker for strikes and changeup that looked elite at times. There’s a lot of potential here over the last two months as he’s a different arm than we saw in June. Keep an eye on him…just after the Jays start ahead.

 

• In Tier 11, Alex Cobb sits at #71 as his splitter has been as good as ever + he’s gotten comfortable tossing curveballs for free strikes. There’s some upside to play with as we’ve hit the cliff – the land where you should be ready to drop these players for upside or streamers.
• Dallas Keuchel has performed at his season’s peak over his last two starts and could continue the trend next time out. He’s worth your eye if his name value hasn’t kept him off the wire.

 

• There’s been a lot of talk about Josiah Gray as of late and while I was stoked to see him earn 19 whiffs in fewer than 80 pitches, I worry about his fastball command + his time inside the Dodgers rotation – they’ll likely get at least one starter at the deadline, booting Josiah from his spot. I love his potential for 2022 and beyond, but it may be tough to keep him rostered past his next outing.
• I wonder what we’ll see from Luis Patiño as the Rays are leaning on him to make starts down the stretch. His slider is fantastic and may propel him into Tier 9 or higher in little time.

 

• Tier 12 is a large one, but has a lot of the regular names you’d expect as possible streamers and desperate back-end starters. I can’t help but have a sense of wonder about Patrick Corbin still, who sat 94 mph in his last outing. Maybe, just maybe, this can be a thing again.
• Joe Ross returns to The List after getting sidelined with an elbow injury. He came out of nowhere during the season, even earning himself a Golden Goal, but typically with injuries, pitchers take a step back and need some time before they return to their former selves. Let’s hope Ross gets back there as soon as his first start back.

 

• Austin Gomber and Ryan Weathers also made their return from injury and deserved a spot this week. Gomber produced a PQS but did it hovering a 50% fastball rate – far from the ~30% levels we got excited about in June. Monitor this.
• As for Weathers, I’m not sold he carries overwhelming upside to force a roster spot, but the Padres are letting him ride a decently high pitch count, providing decent ratio value in leagues.

 

• It’s still a Vargas Rule for many with Chris Flexen, but I just can’t see this panning out as he earned one strikeout last time out and is a clear TEEs in my book. I’m avoiding the inevitable disaster ahead.
• We’ve considered Cole Irvin a Toby through the season and nothing innately has changed. I was hoping for Irvin to take a step forward in breaking free from the label in his recent start against the Mariners, but it just wasn’t in the cards. This is his home.

 

• In the final tier, we have our rag-tag group of possible arms on a given day. That includes Ross Stripling, who gets a major dip despite having success over the weekend against the Mets. My faith in Stripling is reinforced when his secondaries complement his heater in starts. Sadly, we’ve only seen them play a major role once in the past two months and I don’t buy consistent success coming his way until then.
• I can’t help but wonder if Caleb Smith will travel quickly up The List in the final ten weeks of the year. His slider has been excellent over his last two starts and I’m waiting for either his changeup to match the breaker or his heater to comfortably sit 92+ mph. He’s not there yet, but he’s awfully close.

 

• Joining The List this week are Marco Gonzales, Matt Manning, Taylor Widener, and Wil Crowe. The first two have a clear Toby label while Widener has an interesting slider/changeup while sitting 93/94 mph on his fastball. There could be something there that could blossom with more starts.
• As for Crowe, he’s had his slider and changeup working twice within his last four starts and I can’t help but raise an eyebrow at it. No, you shouldn’t pick him up now, but who knows. Maybe he gets consistency with both of them as they complement the 94 mph heater with delight.

 

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Gerrit ColeT1	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
2	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
3	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+2
4	Yu Darvish	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
5	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
6	Lance Lynn	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
7	Lucas Giolito	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
8	Carlos Rodón	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
9	Walker Buehler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+1
10	Robbie Ray	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
11	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-3
12	Corbin Burnes T2	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
13	Luis Castillo	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+9
14	Sean Manaea	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Ratio Focused	+6
15	Lance McCullers Jr.	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-
16	Sandy Alcantara	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
17	Aaron Nola	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
18	Julio Urías	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
19	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
20	Shohei Ohtani	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+8
21	Joe Musgrove	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+4
22	Max Fried	Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-1
23	Frankie Montas T3	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+13
24	Luis García	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+19
25	Alex Wood	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+19
26	Patrick Sandoval	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+24
27	Shane McClanahan	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+5
28	José Berríos	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+12
29	Tyler Mahle	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-3
30	Yusei Kikuchi T4	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+9
31	Kenta Maeda	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+10
32	Chris Bassitt	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-3
33	Germán Márquez	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-2
34	Framber Valdez	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+4
35	Zac Gallen T5	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Stash Option	-11
36	John Means	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option	-13
37	Anthony DeSclafani	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-2
38	James Kaprielian	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Toby Streaming Option	+18
39	Adam Wainwright	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+7
40	Dylan Cease T6	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+5
41	Sonny Gray	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Stash Option	-14
42	Tarik Skubal	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	-
43	Zach Plesac	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option	-9
44	Jon Gray T7	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+4
45	Nathan Eovaldi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+8
46	Zack Greinke	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+5
47	Wade Miley	Injury Risk Toby Ratio Focused	+7
48	Kwang Hyun Kim	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+7
49	Kyle Hendricks	Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+3
50	Taijuan Walker T8	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-13
51	Logan Gilbert	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	-2
52	Hyun Jin Ryu	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-19
53	Kyle Gibson	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option	-23
54	Marcus Stroman	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+3
55	Eduardo Rodriguez	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+3
56	Tanner Houck T9	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+8
57	Adbert Alzolay	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+2
58	Kyle Muller	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+3
59	Triston McKenzie	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+6
60	Touki Toussaint	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+40
61	Logan Webb	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+1
62	Tylor Megill	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+7
63	Freddy Peralta	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Stash Option	-49
64	Blake Snell	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Stash Option	+4
65	Jordan Montgomery T10	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Ratio Focused	+9
66	Domingo Germán	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+7
67	Jameson Taillon	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+5
68	David Price	Low Ips Playing Time Question Stash Option	-2
69	Daniel Lynch IV	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+UR
70	Zach Thompson	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-7
71	Alex Cobb T11	Streaming Option	+4
72	Dallas Keuchel	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+15
73	Tony Gonsolin	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-13
74	Josiah Gray	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	+UR
75	Jake Odorizzi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	-8
76	Madison Bumgarner	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Toby Streaming Option	-5
77	Luis Patiño	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
78	Patrick Corbin T12	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option	+1
79	Steven Matz	Injury Risk Cherry Bomb Toby	+4
80	Andrew Heaney	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-
81	Nick Pivetta	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-4
82	Michael Pineda	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+2
83	Chris Paddack	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Stash Option	-2
84	Joe Ross	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
85	JT Brubaker	Toby Ratio Focused	-
86	Cole Irvin	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-8
87	Austin Gomber	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
88	Merrill Kelly	Cherry Bomb Toby Streaming Option	-2
89	Ryan Weathers	Low Ips Playing Time Question Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
90	Chris Flexen	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-14
91	Chad Kuhl	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+4
92	Johnny Cueto T13	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-4
93	Tyler Anderson	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-2
94	Ryan Yarbrough	Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused	-2
95	Ross Stripling	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-13
96	Marco Gonzales	Toby Ratio Focused	+UR
97	Caleb Smith	Streaming Option	-3
98	Matt Manning	Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
99	Taylor Widener	Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+UR
100	Wil Crowe	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Stash Option	+UR

Photo by Carlos Herrera/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)