The List 7/11: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2022 – Week 14

Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 1:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00 am – 11:00 am ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.

For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:

1. This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
2. We have two tables to review before the notes and rankings. First is an injury table that outlines where players would be relatively ranked if fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
3. If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
4. Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
5. Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. Tier 10 is likely going to underperform those in Tier 11 across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase Tier 10’s ceiling vs. settling for Tier 11’s floor.
6. I’ve made a decision to remove all the labels that I struggle to maintain through the season to instead give each player just one label at a time. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
7. The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.

 

Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots:

 

 

I made a decision this year: I’ve removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.

Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” It’s difficult to update this week-to-week and I apologize if the ranking is different when the player actually returns from the IL. I hope it helps!

One last point about that – often times pitchers need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.

Now let’s take a look at the pitchers I considered for the Top 100 but didn’t quite make the cut:

 

 

Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, or if you want a primer on most of these pitchers, you can check out my 40,000 words from the pre-season via my Top 224 Starting Pitchers for 2022 from February. Both will help you get a grasp of my general thoughts on most of these guys (especially the roundup!) as I simply can’t detail everything about 100 pitchers in these notes each week.

 

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• As is tradition, I need to tell you about the guys who were removed and added from the Top 60, so you have context for the ranking shifts.
• Added: Chris Bassitt (27), Chris Sale (31), Marcus Stroman (55)
• Removed: Jeffrey Springs (47), George Kirby (49)
• Net Gain Inside Top 60: (-1)

 

• The top tier has some changes this week, starting with Shane McClanahan taking the #2 spot as I promised in the SP Roundup. He’s simply been that good and Gerrit Cole stumbled once again this past week. Nothing personal, Cole. I held back last week, but this was the final straw.
• Max Scherzer also makes his return after an absolutely dominant return from the IL. No, I don’t think any less of Justin Verlander or Joe Musgrove, so please ignore their “-1” ranks.

 

• There’s a reason Shohei Ohtani is the featured pitcher this week – he’s risen into the Top 10 for the first time all year. His slider has completely changed him and only success has followed. Throw in his ability to regularly make starts every sixth day and it was time to give him the nod to the second tier.
• So like Verlander and Musgrove above, please don’t look into the “drops” of Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah.

 

• The third tier has just a few changes at the end. I gave a hefty drop to Shane Bieber as he’s earned just 15 strikeouts across his last three outings, nearly matching his 11 ER in that time. I’m not that concerned, but I felt others were leap-frogging him in value at this point of the year.
• Let’s also congratulate Robbie Ray, Dylan Cease, and Tony Gonsolin as they earned their AGA badges this week. I rose Ray the highest of the lot as he’s been on an incredible stretch with his new sinker, though don’t overlook what it meant to give Cease and Gonsolin the label. I’m most skeptical of Gonsolin’s second half, but he’s done enough for me to throw my hands up and give him the dang thing.

 

• Tier 4 is filled with the near AGA arms. We were getting close with Julio Urías and Shane Baz, but both took massive blows on Sunday, setting their dreams back a touch. Charlie Morton is the one most on the verge at the moment with his curveball performing as good as we’ve ever seen.
• There are legit cases for Yu Darvish, Luis Castillo, and Framber Valdez to earn their badges in the near future as well. Valdez has bumped up his strikeout rate lately, though the 13 strikeout game may be a heavy outlier as he should settle closer to a 20% clip than 25%.

 

• The next tier is filled with guys we all want to lean on in the second half, but each have their concerns. Chris Sale is returning from the IL and could quickly climb to Tier 3, but he did just walk five batters and has to face the Rays + Yankees this week. It may be a Still ILL on Tuesday before that rough date with New York – be careful.
• Lucas Giolito feels awfully close to putting it back together and had a Careful, Icarus ruin his weekend outing. I can feel many wanting to jump ship and I’d still be buying low here. I think Giolito is primed for a major second-half rebound.

 

• It’s unclear what the status of Frankie Montas is at the moment – terrible news when he was just getting his AGA label before the shoulder problem. It’s hard to properly rank him now with his health up in the air.
• I haven’t been thrilled at the Lance Lynn we’ve gotten this year as his velocity has hovered 92 mph instead of the near 94 mph clip from 2021. I’m still starting him frequently, but I’m not sold he’ll ascend at the moment.

 

• Oh hey Spencer Strider, you’re pretty dang cool. It’s hard not to get absolutely seduced, but we have to temper our expectations a bit – we’ve seen starts where he’s unable to throw enough strikes, his success is across a small sample, and there is some question about his August/September usage (though, to that last point, I think we generally overestimate the value of September innings in the fantasy world). If Strider keeps performing at this level, he’ll rise up the ranks. Don’t worry.

 

• WHOA WHOA WHOA STOP FOR A SECOND. I can’t thank you enough for taking the time to read the notes and support Pitcher List. Consider getting a premium subscription including Discord access, my exclusive morning podcast, and an ad-free version of the website at $31 off annually using promo code THENOTESCOUPON – Head here to sign up for PL+ Yearly for just $65 (I think this is the lowest it’s ever been…?). New Subscribers only. Thanks for being you.

 

• I’m leading Tier 6 with Jon Gray this week as he’s been a stud over his last six starts, averaging over 96 mph on his heater with a near 40% CSW slider. He’s locked in after his early-season struggles + health and primed to soar in the second half.
• I had to give falls the four under Gray – Logan Gilbert, Nestor Cortes, Luis Garcia, and Cristian Javier. The re-introductions of Scherzer & Bassitt + the rise of Strider and Gray innately lowered these arms, but they also haven’t been pitching up to their potential recently. I have a little more faith in Garcia and Javier to rebound than Cortes at the moment, but all four could rebound soon.

 

• After keeping Blake Snell raised through his troubles, I dropped him a few weeks ago…right before he finally began expressing his potential with back-to-back double-digit strikeout games. That’s just how it goes sometimes. He’s back inside the Top 50 now, but I couldn’t raise him further across such a small sample. In fact, I didn’t expect to raise him this much, but there are quite a number of pitchers underperforming at the moment – you may as well chase the hot hand with tantalizing upside.
• I gave some drops to Mike Clevinger, Zac Gallen, and Joe Ryan, who each have the upside to be Top 30 arms, but haven’t quite clicked yet. We’re running out of time this year.

 

• The first tier of “dependables” arrives a bit earlier this week as I split up the tier and gave this crew more love. Taijuan Walker has amazed me across the last month as he’s suddenly racked up the strikeouts, while the likes of Miles Mikolas, Tyler Anderson, Adam Wainwright, and Carlos Carrasco have steadily helped teams. Just avoid them against the toughest teams, okay?
• Now that Marcus Stroman is back from the IL, he returns to this tier, albeit at the end. He’ll get the Mets this week likely on a limited pitch count, making his value come more from his post-ASB situation.

 

• Tier 9 is a mix of disappointment and excitement. It kicks off with Sonny Gray, Sean Manaea, and Michael Kopech all taking hits as we don’t know when they’ll be at their peaks again. It’s possible all three are their best selves as soon as their next start, though Gray needs his breakers back, Manaea his secondaires, and Kopech his velocity.
• There’s also MacKenzie Gore, who has had depressed velocity for about five starts now. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Padres gave him a bit of a rest with the All-Star break, but who knows. There’s a whole lot of talent here and I’m curious if it’ll spark again in the near future.

 

• On the other side of the coin, you have exciting names like Aaron Ashby and Nick Lodolo, who could be premier southpaws in the second half. Give them some time, both could develop in a major way through the end of the year.
• What are we doing with the Alexes of San Francisco? Alex Wood carried an impressive 41% CSW with his slider over the weekend and may have his luck starting to go his way, while we’re still waiting for fortune to arrive for Alex Cobb. Feel free to get off this if you’d like, I figured #63/64 is a solid place for purgatory.

 

• A little more on Alex Cobb, his rise is less to do with my feeling of the man, but more of the need to drop others (Taillon, Pivetta, Lauer, Syndergaard, and Pérez). Don’t take it as me saying “he’s getting better!”
• Oh, right. There’s also Tarik Skubal. He rebounded last game (finally) but I wasn’t infatuated with his arsenal and I’m a little worried it was a Dennis. We’re not out of the woods yet.

 

• The tenth tier is a sub-set of the same upside tier, but carries a more apparent floor. Hunter Greene and Josiah Gray have each featured double-digit strikeout games, but can also destroy your week in a heartbeat. I hope these young arms stabilize with more time on the bump, but we may be dealing with their volatility for a long time.
• Then there’s Eric Lauer and Nick Pivetta. Lauer had 21 whiffs on his four-seamer before dropping to just five of them over the weekend, including poor command of all his stuff. It’s getting harder to trust his peaks. As for Pivetta, he’s struggled in his last two starts and has another difficult matchup against the Yankees ahead. It looks like the time to search for another waiver wire arm.

 

• The eleventh tier is a chonkster as it contains all of the “sure, I guess I need someone” guys. I debated throwing José Urquidy further up the ranks, though I’m not totally sold that his four-seamer-heavy approach elevates him far above those also in Tier 11.
• The aforementioned trio of Martín Pérez, Noah Syndergaard, and Jameson Taillon fell a substantial amount this week. Pérez isn’t the blind Vargas Rule any longer, Syndergaard is volatile start-to-start, and Taillon hasn’t been a solid play for a few weeks now. They deserved the drop.

 

• You’re going to see some large jumps here, but really, they’re not. We’re past the Top 70 now and the difference between the 70s and 90s really isn’t that big of a deal. Sorry Kyle Gibson, Ross Stripling, and Aaron Civale, I like you more than I did last week, but I’m still not there, you know?
• I won’t ignore Zach Plesac earning whiffs consistently with his slider as his changeup boasts high strike rates. It’s a solid combo that makes him viable against the right opponents.

 

• There’s still some fun left on The List and it can be found in Tier 12. Matthew Liberatore has gotten another chance with the Cardinals and he showed up throwing multiple ticks harder with a new slider that could turn into a legit offering. I dig this a lot and I’d keep my eye on him post-All-Star Break.
• In the same light, Reid Detmers returned for the Angels with a heavy reliance on a slider that gained 3 mph. It’s a new pitch and if that can develop into a proper whiff offering, we’re in business.

 

• I’m monitoring Brayan Bello’s start for the Red Sox Monday evening as I’d imagine Boston could keep him around if he performs better than his MLB debut. I have a suspicion jitters got to him more than we know, and this could be something we’ll be chasing on the wire on Tuesday morning.
• I won’t rule out Trevor Rogers becoming something in the second half (I know, I know) and with the SP Landscape as it is, he still needs to be on your radar.

 

• The final tier is your last chance of finding streaming options throughout the week. Don’t overlook Jake Odorizzi getting the Athletics, Madison Bumgarner sitting 91/92 mph velocity, or Johnny Cueto squirming his way through 6+ frames once again.
• Speaking of which, Michael Pineda keeps finding a way to survive five innings at 2 ER or fewer and it’s time we just shrug our shoulders and accept that.

 

• There were some major drops here – Devin Smeltzer, Tyler Wells, Cal Quantrill, and Chris Flexen – as I assessed them as not worth holding onto above the intrigue of Tier 12 options. I can still see their streams working out here and there.
• Lastly, Dean Kremer and Keegan Thompson rejoin The List this week. Kremer has been a bit of a surprise and rebounded last time out, while Thompson may have a touch more strikeout upside than I originally anticipated. I’m not sold on either one, but they have my attention.

 

• Finally, George Kirby was demoted to Triple-A as a way for the Mariners to limit his innings. I imagine he’ll be back before the end of July and it’s a tough call for your fantasy teams. I’d expect more of the same that he’s given us so far, and in most cases, I think I’d hold for the final two months.

 

 

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Corbin BurnesT1	Aces Gonna Ace	-
2	Shane McClanahan	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
3	Gerrit Cole	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
4	Sandy Alcantara	Aces Gonna Ace	-
5	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace	-
6	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace	+2
7	Justin Verlander T2	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
8	Joe Musgrove	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
9	Carlos Rodón	Aces Gonna Ace	-
10	Shohei Ohtani	Aces Gonna Ace	+2
11	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
12	Alek Manoah	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
13	Luis Severino T3	Aces Gonna Ace	-
14	Aaron Nola	Aces Gonna Ace	-
15	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
16	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
17	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	+1
18	Logan Webb	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
19	Robbie Ray	Aces Gonna Ace	+4
20	Dylan Cease	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
21	Shane Bieber	Aces Gonna Ace	-6
22	Pablo López	Aces Gonna Ace	-
23	Tony Gonsolin	Aces Gonna Ace	+2
24	Charlie Morton T4	Ace Potential	+2
25	Julio Urías	Ace Potential	-5
26	Shane Baz	Ace Potential	-2
27	Chris Bassitt	Ace Potential	+UR
28	Yu Darvish	Ace Potential	+1
29	Luis Castillo	Ace Potential	+1
30	Framber Valdez	Ace Potential	+4
31	Chris Sale T5	Ace Potential	+UR
32	Kyle Wright	Ace Potential	+1
33	Lucas Giolito	Ace Potential	-6
34	Frankie Montas	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-6
35	Spencer Strider	Ace Potential	+2
36	Lance Lynn	Ace Potential	-5
37	Jon Gray T6	Ace Potential	+2
38	Logan Gilbert	Ace Potential	-3
39	Luis Garcia	Strikeout Upside	-3
40	Cristian Javier	Ace Potential	-2
41	Nestor Cortes	Ace Potential	-9
42	Triston McKenzie	Strikeout Upside	-
43	Patrick Sandoval	Ace Potential	+1
44	Blake Snell T7	Ace Potential	+22
45	Jordan Montgomery	Ratio Focused	-
46	Mike Clevinger	Ace Potential	-5
47	Joe Ryan	Ace Potential	-7
48	José Berríos	Cherry Bomb	-
49	Zac Gallen	Ace Potential	-3
50	Taijuan Walker T8	Quality Starts	+4
51	Miles Mikolas	Quality Starts	+4
52	Adam Wainwright	Quality Starts	+4
53	Tyler Anderson	Quality Starts	+4
54	Carlos Carrasco	Quality Starts	+4
55	Marcus Stroman	Quality Starts	+UR
56	Sonny Gray T9	Strikeout Upside	-5
57	Sean Manaea	Ace Potential	-7
58	Michael Kopech	Ace Potential	-5
59	Aaron Ashby	Ace Potential	+3
60	Nick Lodolo	Strikeout Upside	+7
61	Tarik Skubal	Ace Potential	+3
62	MacKenzie Gore	Ace Potential	-10
63	Alex Wood	Cherry Bomb	+8
64	Alex Cobb	Cherry Bomb	+6
65	Hunter Greene T10	Cherry Bomb	+7
66	Josiah Gray	Cherry Bomb	+17
67	Eric Lauer	Strikeout Upside	-4
68	Nick Pivetta	Strikeout Upside	-25
69	José Urquidy T11	Toby	-
70	Martín Pérez	Quality Starts	-9
71	Noah Syndergaard	Toby	-12
72	Jameson Taillon	Toby	-12
73	Paul Blackburn	Toby	-
74	Corey Kluber	Quality Starts	-
75	Merrill Kelly	Quality Starts	+3
76	Kyle Gibson	Toby	+16
77	Marco Gonzales	Quality Starts	-2
78	Ross Stripling	Streaming Option	+18
79	Drew Rasmussen	Toby	-3
80	Aaron Civale	Toby	+10
81	Zach Plesac	Toby	+8
82	Matthew Liberatore T12	Stash Option	+UR
83	Brayan Bello	Stash Option	-15
84	David Peterson	Streaming Option	-7
85	Ian Anderson	Cherry Bomb	+6
86	Trevor Rogers	Stash Option	-2
87	Reid Detmers	Stash Option	+UR
88	Johnny Cueto T13	Toby	+UR
89	Madison Bumgarner	Streaming Option	+UR
90	Chris Flexen	Toby	-10
91	Cal Quantrill	Toby	-12
92	Tyler Wells	Toby	-10
93	Devin Smeltzer	Toby	-12
94	Jake Odorizzi	Streaming Option	+UR
95	Graham Ashcraft	Stash Option	-7
96	Patrick Corbin	Cherry Bomb	-3
97	Keegan Thompson	Streaming Option	+UR
98	Zack Greinke	Toby	-3
99	Dean Kremer	Streaming Option	+UR
100	Michael Pineda	Streaming Option	+UR

 

Photo by Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)