The List 6/28: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – Week 14

It’s the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball and it’s time for Week 12’s starting pitcher rankings.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00am – 11:00am EST Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream for The List.

As always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

For those unaware:

• Cherry Bomb = A volatile pitcher who is either super sweet or blows up in your face. There are few middle grounds.
• Toby = A middling pitcher who you can’t decide if they do enough to stay on your team and give you the itch to drop every single day. Named after Toby from The Office.

Here are the rules for those wondering why a pitcher is or isn’t ranked here:

1. If a pitcher is on the IL or out of the rotation and not confirmed for a start this week, they are pushed into the Fringe table.
2. If a pitcher is in a rotation and not confirmed to start but has not been placed on the IL or officially removed, they remain on The List.
3. These rankings are made as if I am drafting a team today for the rest of the season.
4. This means the Top 40-50 picks are more for ROS, while the rankings after are more short-term focused.
5. I will only incorporate a game played on Monday if the pitcher’s performance is completed before 2:00pm EST.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• It’s been a whirlwind of changes over the past two months and this week…not a whole lot. Still plenty of significant changes, but we avoided an ace getting hurt (sweet!) and the Top 21 arms barely shifted.
• Gerrit Cole did fall a few spots as he hasn’t been quite the same pitcher after lowering his spin rates. He still has excellent stuff, though, and I expect him to rebound. It’s a rough patch, not a fall from grace.

 

• Tier 3 doesn’t have a whole lot of change either. Robbie Ray gets the slight bump over Max Fried as the latter returns from the IL and the former has continued his blazing trail of domination.
• Lance McCullers jumps in at the end after establishing his slider in his latest outing. Now that he’s getting full starts and showcasing at least one breaker, we should feel plenty confident in his production moving forward.

 

• There’s a reason for the positive marks at the end of Tier 3 – Hyun Jin Ryu took a tumble as he simply doesn’t have his changeup and it’s affected him drastically. I do feel that he’ll get the pitch back over time (and his cutter too, while we’re at it), but he deserves the drop for now considering his ceiling isn’t a Top 10 arm.
• The fourth tier is filled with fun names, though Tyler Mahle has displayed more volatility than we’d like with three of his last four games coming with at least three earned runs. It’s not that Mahle shouldn’t help your teams – he’s #31! – but the other pitchers carry a more believable ceiling.

 

• Kyle Gibson has been stupid good and earned him a Gallows Pole with 20 whiffs catalyzing a 10 strikeout performance. It’s something else.
• It’s great to see Aaron Nola take a step forward on his redemption tour with twelve strikeouts against the Mets. Before we shoot him back up the ranks, we need to see more success first. I’m crossing my fingers it’s coming.

 

• We had a solid debate in the Twitch chat about where to place Zac Gallen, ultimately deciding on #35. It’s a mixture of expecting Gallen to reclaim the feel for his secondaries over time, allowing him to catapult into possible Top 20 territory, while understanding he isn’t performing as well currently as those around him. It’s always a balance.
• Ryu isn’t the largest drop of Tier 5, as that honor goes to Marcus Stroman, who falls 20 spots to #45. The mix of a lower ceiling + an injury that has clearly affected him has him lower than a huge amount of arms who are pitching at their potential and even hinting at more. It’s a tough tier to be in when things aren’t going your way.

 

• In Tier 6, I’m encouraged by Blake Snell’s recent outing and I know, I KNOW, A -3 mark seems so wrong. Please don’t be mad. It’s a question of trust – I raised others up in the rankings (José Urquidy, for example) as I’m buying their success a bit more than Snell. This wasn’t me pulling Blake down the ranks, and we just need to see him consistently perform at the high level before we make the climb.
• Chris Paddack also saw a drop in the tier as he fell nine spots. I was encouraged by Paddack’s previous two outings, but his latest was a major step in the opposite direction. Let’s hope he rebounds.

 

• Tier 7 is somewhat stable from last week, save for Alex Wood who…yeah, I know, did super well in his last outing. Why is he dropping? Because it didn’t come with the elite slider that has carried him all season before his June hiccups. I’m worried it was a blip and seeing another outing without the sweeper dominating is another nail in the coffin. I should also note, Maeda, Miley, Sandoval, Odorizzi, and Mize all gave decent hints of success this week, too.
• Speaking of which Patrick Sandoval still rises despite an underwhelming game against the Rays. I didn’t innately touch his ranking (it shifted due to others going up or down) and we’re still in the same place as before – I love his changeup (and expect it to return after not being there on Sunday) and his slider hints at becoming a consistent secondary weapon.

 

• It was a disaster last Monday for Frankie Montas as gloopgate seemed to affect the Oakland starter against the Rangers. He was better over the weekend, but I’m worried that the stable rock we envisioned just isn’t that great for our fantasy squads as we imagined.
• James Kaprielian jumped a bit this week into Tier 8 as he’s showcased himself as a glorified Toby. There are moments of strikeout upside in there too, but I see him mostly as a decent arm to avoid against tough teams. Nothing more.

 

• I’ve been a bit disappointed with Ross Stripling this week as he didn’t carry the excellent secondaries we saw during his start against the Yankees. We just saw two outings with an underwhelming curveball, changeup, and slider, and I’m a little worried it’s priming Ross for a blowup.
• Germán Márquez gets some love this week as I simply can’t ignore how good his slider (Money Pitch!) and curveball have been this year. Coors is undefeated and all that, so be careful, but he really does deserve praise for what he can do.

 

• I elected to give a bump to Eduardo Rodriguez as his fastball command has improved as of late and we may be on the verge of Erod having one of his solid stretches. Obviously don’t love him that much – he’s at #71, after all and we’re plenty past the point of “must-hold” arms – but he should be considered heavily.
• I dropped Jordan Montgomery slightly as I still believe there’s a corner that can be turned here but he’s hasn’t quite figured it out yet. The curveball, change, cutter, fastball approach can be legit.

 

• In the tenth tier it’s getting tricky. On one hand, you have Jameson Taillon tossing one of his best games of the season as he landed curveballs and sliders down, though even while watching him do it, I wonder if the shape of his breakers are as good as we need them to be. We need to see more.
• On the other hand, there’s Adbert Alzolay who fell 18 spots as he hasn’t looked the same since returning from the IL. It’s best for us to look elsewhere until he pitches at a level reminiscent of his May self.

 

• Nick Pivetta rose fifteen spots as I loved watching him pepper the top of the zone with 95+ mph heaters and finally get his sliders and curveballs down. It wasn’t as precise as we want, but he may be churning out enough production consistently enough to warrant a hold in 12-teamers.
• I also gave a pump to Zach Thompson after dominating not only with his excellent cutter, but with four-seamer command around the edges. I’m a little skeptical that he’s this good and he would have risen more if not for a date with Atlanta and the Dodgers next on the agenda. Who knows what kind of opportunities he’ll have on the other side of the All-Star break and I’d be cautious in those two starts.

 

• Making his debut on The List is Kyle Muller, who had a decent four-inning performance followed by five frames of shutout ball with nine strikeouts against the Reds. His command is still in question, though 95+ heat with a pair of CSW-friendly breakers makes my heart flutter. He gets the Marlins next this week and I’d be looking to pick him up and take a calculated risk.
• Joining Muller is the return of Danny Duffy, who tossed just two frames against the Yankees. It’s unclear how much he’ll get to go for in the future, but he was sitting 94/95 mph once again and that should have your attention – Duffy’s increased velocity in April is what made him excel, after all. The low ranking is a product of wondering if he’ll even pitch enough to be helpful.

 

• I couldn’t help but add Jon Gray this week as well, returning from the IL in incredible fashion, sitting 96 mph instead of his normal 94 and change. It’s still a Rockies pitcher, but there’s value to be had.
• Despite tossing his best start so far, Tony Gonsolin dropped a bit as I have yet to see his slider do what we want it to. That pitch is what propelled Gonsolin into the dominant starter in previous seasons and without it, Gonsolin is highly susceptible to a blow-up. Not to mention, he’s suffering from a bit of #Dodgeritis as we just don’t know how the Dodgers will use him moving forward – how many pitches will he go for in his next start?

 

• Tier 11 is filled with plenty of question marks. I gave a drop to Marco Gonzales, Dylan Bundy, and Griffin Canning, all pitchers who have spent many days with a higher ranking yet have gave managers fits this season. Instead of relying on them to blossom, I’d consider searching for something new.
• Caleb Smith rises to #87 despite not impressing me much against the Brewers. We’re looking 92 mph + one of his slider or changeup to show up in a given outing and this one saw sub 91 mph and poor secondaries. Still, the ceiling is there and he could display the upside in a blink of an eye.

 

• Many of this week’s newcomers lie in the eleventh tier with Tony Santillan, Steven Matz, Eli Morgan, and Merrill Kelly. Santillan impressed with better command and becomes an interesting spec add, Matz returns from the IL and could be a valuable back-end arm again, and Kelly has been a volatile streamer as he’s constantly sat 92/93 mph.
• Eli Morgan is the interesting one. His changeup was phenomenal against the Cubs, while his fastball rarely leaked over the plate. He did get gassed as the game went on, though, and it’s hard to bank on his fastball command being that good again.

 

• In the final tier, it’s a whole lot of red as I wondered who could be worthwhile as a possible streamer for twelve teamers. Alex Cobb took the biggest tumble as he simply hasn’t been the consistent streamer we thought he could be with his splitter back in action. There’s still hope here, it’s just a hard bet to make at this point.
• I elect to give the final #100 rank to an intriguing arm each week and here we have Chris Flexen after he earned 19 whiffs in his last start. Sure, it was against Rockie Road, though what impressed me the most how he had success with his four-seamer and curveball, not his cutter. It may be something to build upon, just don’t get too wrapped up in it- he gets the Jays this week and that’s a clear bench.

 

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Jacob deGromT1	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
2	Yu Darvish T2	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
3	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
4	Gerrit Cole	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
5	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
6	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
7	Lucas Giolito	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
8	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
9	Lance Lynn	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
10	Walker Buehler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
11	Carlos Rodón	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
12	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
13	Trevor Bauer	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
14	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
15	Trevor Rogers T3	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
16	Freddy Peralta	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
17	Framber Valdez	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
18	Robbie Ray	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
19	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-1
20	Julio Urías	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
21	Sandy Alcantara	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
22	Joe Musgrove	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+1
23	Pablo López	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
24	Lance McCullers Jr.	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+7
25	Sean Manaea T4	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Ratio Focused	+2
26	Shohei Ohtani	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+7
27	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+7
28	Kyle Gibson	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+8
29	Aaron Nola	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+8
30	Yusei Kikuchi	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
31	Tyler Mahle	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-5
32	Ian Anderson T5	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-
33	José Berríos	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+2
34	Hyun Jin Ryu	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-12
35	Zac Gallen	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-6
36	Taijuan Walker	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
37	Chris Bassitt	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+2
38	Tarik Skubal	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+7
39	Dylan Cease	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
40	Shane McClanahan	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+1
41	Zack Greinke	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+3
42	Luis Castillo	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+5
43	José Urquidy	Ace Potential Injury Risk Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+6
44	Luis García	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+6
45	Marcus Stroman	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-20
46	Blake Snell T6	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-3
47	Kyle Hendricks	Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+4
48	Anthony DeSclafani	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+4
49	Adam Wainwright	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+4
50	Alek Manoah	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+4
51	Chris Paddack	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	-9
52	Kenta Maeda T7	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+3
53	Wade Miley	Injury Risk Toby Ratio Focused	+4
54	Patrick Sandoval	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+4
55	Jake Odorizzi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	+4
56	Casey Mize	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+5
57	Alex Wood	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-1
58	Frankie Montas T8	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-12
59	JT Brubaker	Toby Ratio Focused	+4
60	Andrew Heaney	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+4
61	Rich Hill	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+4
62	James Kaprielian	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Toby Streaming Option	+12
63	Patrick Corbin	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option	+7
64	Ross Stripling	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-2
65	Germán Márquez	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+11
66	Domingo Germán T9	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-
67	Zach Eflin	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
68	Logan Gilbert	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+1
69	Nathan Eovaldi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+3
70	Jordan Montgomery	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Ratio Focused	-2
71	Eduardo Rodriguez	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+10
72	Dallas Keuchel	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+1
73	Cole Irvin	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+9
74	Jameson Taillon T10	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+3
75	Joe Ross	Strikeout Upside Toby Streaming Option	+8
76	Nick Pivetta	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+15
77	Kyle Muller	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+UR
78	Adbert Alzolay	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-18
79	Zach Thompson	Playing Time Question Ratio Focused Streaming Option Stash Option	+9
80	Tony Gonsolin	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-9
81	Danny Duffy	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+UR
82	Matt Manning	Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	+3
83	Jon Gray	Injury Risk Cherry Bomb	+UR
84	Marco Gonzales T11	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-9
85	Dylan Bundy	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option	-5
86	Griffin Canning	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-7
87	Caleb Smith	Streaming Option Stash Option	+13
88	Tony Santillan	Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	+UR
89	Steven Matz	Injury Risk Cherry Bomb	+UR
90	Eli Morgan	Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+UR
91	Merrill Kelly	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
92	Johnny Cueto T12	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-
93	Ryan Yarbrough	Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused	-6
94	Sam Long	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	-10
95	Alex Cobb	Streaming Option	-17
96	Mike Minor	Streaming Option	-10
97		Streaming Option	-2
98	Dane Dunning	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-2
99	Martín Pérez	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-5
100	Chris Flexen	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR

Photo by George Walker/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)