[pitcher_list list_id=”22464″ season=”2018″ include_stats=”1″]
Welcome to The List – The weekly top 100 rankings of starting pitchers in fantasy baseball for the rest of the season. Use this list to help make choices on the waiver wire and as a tool to gauge trade value in your fantasy leagues. These rankings are made with 5×5 H2H standard 12-team leagues in mind.
Let’s talk about how the SP landscape has changed since last week:
- This might be the least moving of any week, not a whole lot has happened to make me make sweeping changes.
- Trevor Bauer and Clayton Kershaw displace the Top 15 a bit, with Kershaw moving up given his reinstatement from the DL and Bauer well-deserving of the bump. The recent trend of Gerrit Cole after his 8-game out-of-his-mind stretch makes me settle for Bauer right above of him.
- I should have had Rich Hill around #70 on The List and officially returns around #59 as he showed off his upside right off the bat. Yes, a stumble yesterday reminds us of the headaches, but we should feel good rolling with him moving forward.
- I went back-and-forth about Shane Bieber’s spot, though in the case that the Indians elect to keep him in the rotation indefinitely, he’s hinting at a Top 50 spot. I also think I underappreciated his slider last week and given that he has a money pitch with his excellent control, he should be owned everywhere. The chance that he sticks is well worth it – if you wait, you won’t get him.
- Mike Minor has featured increased velocity recently and deserved a spot back on The List. Maybe this turns into something, maybe not. At the very least, start him against the Padres on Wednesday.
- Freddy Peralta is back in the Brewers rotation and may have a larger stay this time around.
- Both Marcus Stroman and Joey Lucchesi are back from injury and it’s time to take chances on them given the right matchups.
- It’s a tough schedule ahead for Jaime Barria, forcing a sizeable drop despite a solid outing against the Jays over the weekend.
- Wade LeBlanc is as Vargas Rule as it gets, though he could be a decent streamer ROS.
- Others joining The List this week are Dereck Rodriguez and Mike Montgomery, who have each proven that they are solid streaming options.
- Near misses include Matt Boyd (slowed down production), Nick Kingham & Fernando Romero (Triple-A), Brandon McCarthy (volatile arm), Zach Eflin (just a streaming option), and Dylan Covey (Nine walks in two starts).
Having a tough time understanding how we as readers or fantasy players are supposed to use this list when it changes weekly and sometimes after just one start or in Strabsurg’s case hasn’t even pitched. Hard to formulate trade value when it can change next week. Please help us understand.
Sure!
1) Injured guys are weird. I may next week just remove them all and have a separate table saying “here’s where they would be if healthy” and let you decide what that means in your league.
2) He didn’t move, Morton fell.
3) Strasburg being a week closer to returning = a positive as well. Wasn’t taken into consideration, but that’s how it is often for injured guys on here.
Regarding the constant tinkering, I’ve wrestled with the best of doing a weekly update. Should it even be weekly? If it is, how many people should move? It’s not an easy thing to balance and what I’ve settled on is the idea that it’s better to make plenty of small moves in one direction instead of one massive sweeping move.
For example, let’s look at Quintana. He was consensus Top 25 in the preseason, but clearly doesn’t deserve to be there now. He’s in the 50s now. I’ve gradually moved him down in these weekly lists and it feels a lot better than suddenly moving him 30 spots. It also raise the questions of when. At what point should I make that sweeping decision?
Making small adjustments each week helps stabilize the entire list and gives people a solid sense of the market as well. At the end of the day, you’re going to have to make decisions of Player A over Player B and as much as we like to think as a ROS rank that it shouldn’t change after one start from each guy, in many cases deeper in these lists (i.e. not in the Top 20 or so), that is the case, and I adjust accordingly.
I hope that clears everything up with my methodology :)
I think separating the hurt guys into a “this is where they’d be if they were healthy” is a great idea, I almost suggested it myself. Things like amount of DL slots per league, how well youre doing in your league, etc all impact a hurt players value on a case-by-case basis more than a healthy player.
Weekly updates are what makes this site unique and valuable. Anyone looking for stolid “back of the baseball card” type rankings can find that elsewhere.
I appreciate what you do and the time you put into it. I guess I’m just wondering what I’m supposed to read into a ranking or what value that puts on an SP when it seems the ranking is being made, mostly on the pitchers most recent performance. What is a ranking if you’re not telling us what it mean, i.e. going forward I’d rather have SP8 over SP16. That would work if I knew okay go trade my SP16 for the SP8, then next week that SP8 gets dropped below SP16 after a bad outing. Believe Garrett Richards was an example of this.
If you stay with the rankings weekly they don’t really change that drastically. Injuries, continued positive or negative trends and performances drive these. For me its just a general baseline. Every league is different and only you can decide how these correlate to your particular league.
It is a snapshot of the player’s value as of today in a redraft. That is the simple answer, no? Keep the weekly updates please!
Amen to weekly updates!
It allows Nick to actually address mistakes and get feedback. Monthly ranking or even less frequent doesn’t allow for much of that. There is a certain level of accountability and humility in committing to this weekly.
On the above, think it would be helpful if the list wasn’t a point in time ranking based on the prior weeks performance, but rather, a ROS or forecast list based on say, upcoming schedule or injury status. All that said, great list, analysis, and website.
Isn’t this what it tries to be? I do think sometimes this is inconsistent though, still love it.
Bieber & German
Who is more likely to stick in the rotation? And who’s the better upside play? Have Severino, Greinke, Carrasco, Snell, Clevinger, Pivetta, Newcomb, and looking for an upside guy to stash on my bench.
What has Castillo done to remain on this list? He is nothing more than a streaming option at this point.
Many of these guys are! At least Castillo has some realistic upside.
If you want a ranking of SP’s based on their categorical performance just go to your league players page and sort on Overall. If you want a list of SP’s based on analysis of their stuff and their potential, then come here, that’s why most of us to. If you don’t like either, than DIY. Cheers.
What’s your basis for putting Newcomb at 49? I know he can struggle to find the strike zone at times, but he’s been rock solid for me all season: 8-2 record, 2.59 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.7 K/9. I’m not too familiar with the advanced metrics, though.
The list is great, there are so many variables defining the outcome of a game. I appreciate the fact that Nick takes the underlying skills of the pitchers in considaration.. it is not a crystal ball but it gives you an indication what tot expect from a pitcher.. as an exemple, Vargas was the first half last year rock solid, look at him now. I use the daily reviews in combination with the list to get a complete picture. Thank you Nick!
Does Ervin Santana make the top 100 if healthy? If so where?
Why so high on rookie Jonathan Loaisiga? Do you expect him to stick and take German’s stop when Tanaka returns?
Would you take Flaherty over Folty going forward in a standard roto league using QS, K, ERA, WHIP? Not much difference between them in the newest ranking.
61 Luis Castillo ….uuuhhhh?
Liking some of the movement here. Some of the deviations on my mental list. Ahem.
Kershaw/Syndergaard not top 20 pitcher until fragile pitcher syndrome is cured.
DeGrom, Severino, Verlander, Bauer, Berrios, Cole, Paxton, Snell, Nola are my 3-12 prolly Bumgarner, Carrasco after that. Greinke kinda getting boring.
McCullers out of top 25.
Mikolas mid-late teens.
I am also loving on Pivetta easily the most perfect rank change on the board.
Stripling on a jetpack ride – early 20s.
Fulmer definitely finding it again.
Alex Wood top 30. Gibson top 40. One is slowly losing my faith the other is slowly gaining faith to be above average against all lineups.
Tyson Ross losing effectiveness when pitch count rises. I am predicting free-fall if they can’t start finding him an extra day now and again.
RIP Soroka, Keuchel, Quintana, Tanaka, Darvish. Soroka unreliable due to injury (might be my #1 dynasty 2018 call up still), the rest are see if anybody likes names and go get the following for cheap…
Jon Gray, Luis Castillo (looking for both to lose a few ticks on SwStr% and increase WeakContact%), Jonathan Loaisiga, Shane Bieber, Freddy Peralta. (One of these guys ends up in the top 30.)
I’ll be watching Minor, Weaver, Wheeler, and Nelson’s progress over the next few weeks rather closely.
**4-12, Scherzer, Kluber, Sale antfw.
The list is what makes this site, please do not change it. We know you sometimes are over enthusiastic after one great performance from a newbie, but we love all that. Do not go bori;g on us, please
Maeda just got pulled from a shutout with 84 pitches through 7…
I’ve been so torn on Corbin. I know that he is going to regress but I just can’t bring myself to drop him for a pitcher like Bundy or Heaney (both FA in my 8 teamer).
What would you do, Nick?
Please keep the list as is. I use it together with the daily comments and the podcasts. Actually, I don’t always use it. I just enjoy it!
Man, what does Clayton Richard need to do to get some love?
Where do you think Flaherty will end this year and start next year on the list
Would you stick with Bieber or pick up Gio? He got dropped in my league after yesterday’s clunker. 16-team H2H points league (funky scoring)
What’s the word on Soroka? He’s out for a long time?
I wanna know where Eflin is going next week! As of right now with his body of work, I think he deserves to be higher than guys like Estrada, Kuhl, and Musgrove. I’ll definitely be curious to see where you think he belongs. He looked pretty solid against NYY, I grabbed him as soon as I saw the final line. I’ve been iffy on him for a while but after the Nats, Brewers, Yankees, what else does he have to prove? He looks good to me.