The List 6/23: The Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2020 — 60 Game Edition

Update: I have since updated these rankings on July 17th. Use those for your preseason drafts!

 

Hey.

It’s been a long time. I’ve missed doing this, and this is going to be a very weird update. Not a whole slew of changes since the March update, but a few things have changed, and now that we have a season announced, it’s appropriate to release an updated set of rankings.

Please, keep in mind that this is without all the information we normally have. I don’t know the schedule in full, the division alignments, how taxi squads will work, etc. There’s so much still up in the air and when we find out more, I will update it once again. It was either don’t put out an update and wait or do one with this caveat, and hey, I missed y’all, so here we are.

As always, read the notes and leave your comments (I now get notified when you leave a comment, yay!) and let’s talk about baseball.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• Whoa, I’m doing notes again! I CAN’T WAIT FOR BASEBALL TO RETURN.
• take note that I’ve removed both Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco from The List, granting an innate +2 boost to everyone after around #30. Syndergaard had TJS, while Carrasco’s recovery from cancer makes me assume he will sit out the season given a weaker immune system – there has been nothing announced thus far, but it’s a safe assumption to make. Carrasco would be around the early 20s if he plays in full.
• June 24 update: It looks like Michael Fulmer is expected to return in full from TJS for the start of the season. There’s obviously concern if his sinker is still thrown and if he can find his old changeup, but I’d rank him around Jordan Montgomery and Alex Wood around #60 – there’s enough upside to chase that it could work out well as a late round flier.
• During PitchCon, I sat down with injury specialist Stephen Lyman, where we discussed many players with injury questions and how to properly put weights on them. There are a number of players who have shifted in my ranks because of this discussion (watch our hour long talk here):
  • I’m placing Mike Clevinger ahead of Shane Bieber, as we shouldn’t be worried about his knee at all given the large time off to properly heal. I like Clev dog. You should too.
  • Charlie Morton often gets hurt by the longevity of the season and a season a third in length will do wonders for his overall performance. He was a true ace last year and gets a well-deserved bump.
  • I was giving Blake Snell a heavy drop before, given the injury cloud already circling, but given it was loose bodies that were removed and should be fully healed, I’m in on Snell rebounding from an odd year where he lost the feel for his curveball and slider in the zone. That should come back.
  • Griffin Canning’s PRP injections should come with concern, pushing him down a tier.
• I feel weird about the fourth tier. In February, I was favoring strong volume arms over the volatile upside from ranks 20-40, but I’m starting to question if that’s what we should be doing. I’m still leaving Corey Kluber high, as I think his overall talent warrants it, but Zack Greinke and Madison Bumgarner fall a bit.
• Hyun-Jin Ryu, the one I’ve often avoided a ton, is back on the menu in a shortened year. Not someone I’d personally go for in this range, but I can’t ignore that he’ll likely perform along the lines of Kyle Hendricks, if not slightly better.
• On that note, you may notice that I’m not putting a major weight on injury-prone arms here. Since the update three months ago, I’ve had more credence that a shorter season returns fewer risks for injured arms, giving me a slight boost to many — not all, though.
• Rich Hill comes to mind there, and I’ve pushed him up plenty given that all signs currently point to a healthy start to the year. Not too far though, he will likely break at some point, even in limited time.
• There were a few little tweaks here and there — moving up Joe Musgrove slightly, as he should be removed from his shoulder stiffness, Caleb Smith talking about his hip injury hurting his second-half last season makes me a little more encouraged about a strong start to the year — but nothing too major otherwise.
• I know it seems odd, but I like John Means as a late add for teams. A great changeup, an improving curveball, and a good enough fastball that warrants a better floor than most are giving him credit.
• I’ve also bumped up Spencer Turnbull, who has a repertoire that could improve if he fully removes that terrible sinker – his four-seamer returned a 14.1 pVal last year!
• Let’s welcome a few names to The List, as we’ve removed a few aces in Carrasco, Sale, and Syndergaard:
  • Kyle Gibson’s injury was up in the air last time, but now looks like he’ll be entrenched in the Rangers rotation. I’m not terribly in, but hey, he’s got an incredible slider and changeup.
  • There was a brief moment of excitement last year when Brad Keller upped his velocity two ticks before coming down with an injury that ended his season. There could be something there.
  • Let’s bring in the Irish Panda Patrick Sandoval at the end, as he could be the sixth man with Shohei Ohtani likely getting an odd weekly spot in the rotation. There may be something to Sandoval with an intriguing trio of pitches, so let’s give him a warm welcome.
• A few names I considered at the end but just missed the cut:
  • Pablo Lopez: In retrospect, I likely should have added Lopez. He discussed with Fast and I that he plans to use more changeups this year (yes!) and could be a sneaky add for an early productive year. Probably in the late 80s or so.
  • Miles Mikolas: We’re assuming he’s healthy.
  • Freddy Peralta and Corbin Burnes: Who knows who gets the job here…if there is one to get now that Eric Lauer is healthy. They become intriguing upside plays if they earn a legit role, but it’s also the Brewers – they could each go only four innings each even if they get a starting gig. Monitor this situation in the spring.
  • Carlos Carrasco: He’ll likely sit out 2020 as his cancer treatment makes possible exposure to COVID-19 more dangerous than for most.
  • Chase Anderson: I need to see a legit change in Toronto first. Same goes for Trent Thornton, Matt Shoemaker, and Tanner Roark.
  • Anibal Sanchez and Marco Gonzales: I leaned toward upside in the final 15 spots and found myself not needing to go after a Toby like Anibal or Marco or a few more I’m sure you’re wondering about.
  • Austin Voth: I think Joe Ross has him beat right now. That’s sad. If he has a rotation spot, he slides in #85 or so.
  • I should also mention the Dodgers’ situation with Ross Stripling and Dustin May currently out of the rotation. This could change, they could go six-man if it’s a crunched season, among many other scenarios. If so, I like May more than Stripling, but we’ll see how the Dodgers play it out. They always find a way to make us pull our hair out, after all.
  • Nate Pearson and Spencer Howard: I was tempted again to put them both on The List, but the fact remains we’re still waiting on news about how prospects will be handled inside taxi squads. If Pearson or Howard are invited and hit the rotation, they would both shoot up to around #60 or so, with Pearson > Howard (though Howard has the easier path to the #5 rotation spot).
    • Side note: I have zero expectations for other prospects, including Mackenzie Gore, Brady Singer, Matt Manning, Casey Mize, etc. to make this leap. Pearson and Howard seem more likely to jump.

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Gerrit ColeT1	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
2	Jacob deGrom	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
3	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
4	Justin Verlander	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
5	Walker Buehler T2	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
6	Mike Clevinger	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
7	Shane Bieber	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
8	Charlie Morton	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
9	Stephen Strasburg	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
10	Jack Flaherty T3	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
11	Blake Snell	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+6
12	Patrick Corbin	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
13	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-1
14	Yu Darvish	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
15	Luis Castillo	Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts	-2
16	Lucas Giolito T4	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
17	Chris Paddack	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-1
18	Corey Kluber	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
19	Aaron Nola	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
20	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
21	Sonny Gray	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
22	Zac Gallen	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-
23	Tyler Glasnow	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+1
24	James Paxton	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
25	Zack Greinke T5	Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts	-4
26	Lance Lynn	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
27	Frankie Montas	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
28	Trevor Bauer	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+3
29	Madison Bumgarner	Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-2
30	Brandon Woodruff	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
31	Michael Soroka	Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+2
32	José Berríos	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
33	David Price T6	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+2
34	Jesús Luzardo	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+2
35	Kenta Maeda	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+2
36	Shohei Ohtani	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+2
37	Matthew Boyd	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+3
38	Carlos Martínez	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
39	Julio Urías T7	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+2
40	Luke Weaver	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+3
41	Hyun Jin Ryu	Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+18
42	Max Fried	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	-
43	Joe Musgrove	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+4
44	Lance McCullers Jr.	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+1
45	Andrew Heaney	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-1
46	Kyle Hendricks	Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
47	Sean Manaea	Ace Potential Injury Risk Ratio Focused	+1
48	Caleb Smith	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+5
49	Dinelson Lamet	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-
50	Robbie Ray	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-
51	Mike Foltynewicz	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
52	Mike Minor	Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+4
53	Mitch Keller	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-1
54	José Urquidy	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-
55	Jake Odorizzi	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-
56	Eduardo Rodriguez	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+1
57	Germán Márquez	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+1
58	Dylan Cease T8	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+2
59	Jordan Montgomery	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	+2
60	Alex Wood	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	+2
61	Sandy Alcantara	Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+4
62	John Means	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+6
63	Garrett Richards	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-
64	Masahiro Tanaka	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-
65	A.J. Puk	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+7
66	Josh Lindblom	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+1
67	Adrian Houser	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	-1
68	Michael Kopech T9	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+3
69	Josh James	Ace Potential Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+4
70	Griffin Canning	Ace Potential Injury Risk Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-1
71	Rich Hill	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+18
72	Dylan Bundy	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-2
73	Spencer Turnbull	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+11
74	Taijuan Walker	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	-
75	Joey Lucchesi	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-
76	Dallas Keuchel	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-
77	Cole Hamels	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-
78	Yonny Chirinos	Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused	-
79	Ryan Yarbrough	Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused	-
80	Marcus Stroman	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-
81	Anthony DeSclafani	Strikeout Upside Toby Ratio Focused	-
82	Zach Plesac T10	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-
83	Aaron Civale	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-
84	Wade Miley	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+1
85	Justus Sheffield	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+1
86	Nathan Eovaldi	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+1
87	Kevin Gausman	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+1
88	Jon Gray	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+4
89	Dakota Hudson	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+4
90	Johnny Cueto	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+4
91	Kyle Gibson	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+UR
92	Brad Keller	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+UR
93	Asher Wojciechowski	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-2
94	Homer Bailey	Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+1
95	Jordan Lyles	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+2
96	Chad Kuhl	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Streaming Option Stash Option	+2
97	Steven Matz	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+2
98	Chris Bassitt	Strikeout Upside Toby Streaming Option	+2
99	J.A. Happ	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-3
100	Patrick Sandoval	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR

Photo by Mary Holt/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)