The List 6/21: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – Week 13

It’s the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball and it’s time for Week 12’s starting pitcher rankings.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00am – 11:00am EST Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream for The List.

As always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

For those unaware:

• Cherry Bomb = A volatile pitcher who is either super sweet or blows up in your face. There are few middle grounds.
• Toby = A middling pitcher who you can’t decide if they do enough to stay on your team and give you the itch to drop every single day. Named after Toby from The Office.

Here are the rules for those wondering why a pitcher is or isn’t ranked here:

1. If a pitcher is on the IL or out of the rotation and not confirmed for a start this week, they are pushed into the Fringe table.
2. If a pitcher is in a rotation and not confirmed to start but has not been placed on the IL or officially removed, they remain on The List.
3. These rankings are made as if I am drafting a team today for the rest of the season.
4. This means the Top 40-50 picks are more for ROS, while the rankings after are more short-term focused.
5. I will only incorporate a game played on Monday if the pitcher’s performance is completed before 2:00pm EST.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• Hey y’all, it’s me. The guy reminding you that I had to remove both Shane Bieber and Tyler Glasnow from The List this week, which means 90% of The List got an innate +2. Please understand as you look at the number ranks.
• Speaking of which, also keep in mind that Zac Gallen has suddenly returned and tossed 58 pitches against the Giants. He’s back at #29 on The List and will steadily climb as long as that pitch count continues rising…which means it’s just an innate +1 (not +2) for those outside the Top 30. Carry on.

 

• The biggest move in the Top 10 is Lucas Giolito rising above Clayton Kershaw. Some may have hesitation after his rough four-start tumble a month ago, but Giolito has returned to the man we trusted at the beginning of the season, even raising his spin rates in his last start as he looks to be a 180+ IP arm through the year.
• I’ve also elected to dip Corbin Burnes a bit for two reasons: He should innately be dropping as the season continues given the innings cap (~150-160 frames) + his spin rates dropped significantly as he was a bit lost in his last start. There is some concern here, but he’s still Top 15.

 

• Framber Valdez gets the jump we all know he deserves into the third tier after spinning yet another seven-inning gem. While it will come to a halt at some point, he’s earned his AGA label.
• In the fourth tier, nothing has changed save for Hyun Jin Ryu falling to the #22 spot. It may seem shocking – he had three rough outings before recovering in his last start! – but I didn’t like what I saw in his changeup. Ryu has thrived with the pitch in his career and Ryu struggled to locate the slowball down as we’ve seen in the past. I’m worried we’re not quite out of the woods yet.

 

• In the fifth tier, joining Gallen is Dinelson Lamet’s ascension as he went five strong against the Reds over the weekend. He’s hinting 80 pitches now sure looks like the man we fell for last year, even if it’s a tick lower than last season. We haven’t reached the peak yet.
• It’s been tough to say no to Sean Manaea, who fanned 11 over the weekend without turning to his breaker as he pumped 93 mph gas. Remember, he was hovering 90 mph last season.

 

• I don’t have anything against Ian Anderson, please trust me. I just can’t hold back the improvements of Yusei Kikuchi and the stretching out of Lance McCullers. Keep starting Anderson, of course.
• Charlie Morton had a stumble and a recovery lately and I’m all for it moving forward. He’s getting a good feel for his cutter as his fastball/curveball combination continues to work.

 

• The biggest move of The List is not a shocking one – it’s Aaron Nola falling twenty spots as his moment of turning it around came to a screeching halt against the Giants. While I do believe he’s not destined toward a drop in your 12-teamers (there’s over half the season left!), the anxiety and haze surrounding his future starts warrant the fall to Tier 6.
• About the sixth tier – Nola sticks out like a sore thumb as Kyle Gibson, Taijuan Walker, and Chris Bassitt each carry the same story: we don’t collectively buy their current production for the next 3+ months, but we can’t deny how well they’re doing right now (yes, including Walker and his 4 ER romp). Keep starting them and let’s hope they make me look dumb by September.

 

• Tier 7 is a fun and terrifying tier. You have exciting names like Shane McClanahan and Tarik Skubal who are itching to climb up the ranks, while Dylan Cease, Luis Castillo, and Blake Snell all make us wonder what’s around the corner. Cease lost his slider in his start against Houston, Snell can’t get into a rhythm with his arsenal, and Castillo’s fastball was a bit too hittable + couldn’t work in his changeup to its fullest on Sunday. All three could be Top 30 guys, we just don’t if they’ll take the step.
• There’s also Zack Greinke and Frankie Montas, who have turned into stable arms for any rotation. I think there’s another level for Montas to hit with his slider and splitter approach, we’ll just wait and see if he finds the groove.

 

• Chris Paddack also gets a jump after continuing his improvements with his changeup via an 11-strikeout performance. His fastball was a bit slower, but he needs the changeup effectiveness more than the extra velocity.
• The upside-chasing of Tier 7 carries over a bit into Tier 8 with Kyle Hendricks and Aaron Civale. The latter had one of the more significant drops as he didn’t build off his 11-strikeout game, returning to an arm reminiscent of a Toby. Meanwhile, Hendricks is doing his best to be more than the dreaded label and deserved a bit more love after finally giving us an upside-laden outing.

 

• I had to give more credit to Adam Wainwright, who is acting more like a Cherry Bomb than a Toby these days. He just cruised through Atlanta on Sunday and has become an easy start against all but the top offenses for many managers. I question if his curveball and cutter approach can stick through the year (we saw the cutter fall out for a bit across the last month!) but for now, he’s a must-hold.
• Also to note is Anthony DeSclafani who has been a consistently strong play when not facing a Top 10 offense. So essentially 67% of the time to put it incredibly rough.

 

• Tier 9 is where the true fun begins, featuring many arms you picked up off the wire. Patrick Sandoval and Jake Odorizzi each get sizeable jumps and for different reasons. Sandoval has come into his own with his changeup and has the potential to go off once again if his slider or curveball earns strikes. Pair that with a great schedule, and Sandoval is a wonderful addition to your squads.
• Odorizzi is doing Odorizzi things with his four-seamer up in the zone and now has a comfortable role in the Houston rotation as their schedule eases through the All-Star break. This has all the makings of a sneaky good pickup.

 

• I know, you’re shocked Kenta Maeda dropped five points – He just had a productive two-start week! – Keep in mind, I’m waiting for his slider and changeup to both return in a given start, while placing heaters on the edges. That is the Maeda we’re waiting for. Instead, we got one start with a solid slider, the other with a solid splitter, and neither with a great heater. He benefited from facing weak teams and I’m not as confident in him as, say, Tony Disco start-to-start at the moment.
• I heavily debated Alek Manoah or Maeda and I gave the tie-breaker to Manoah who is still missing his changeup over the last few starts. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt as he has a shorter track record of being out of rhythm.

 

• Adbert Alzolay is coming back from his IL stint with a blister today and while I wouldn’t activate him for this start, let’s not forget that he was a Top 50 arm before the injury. Give him one start to see if he’s comfortable with his slider again before letting him loose – I have a touch of concern that the blister could re-appear.
• The other major move of Tier 9 was Alex Wood falling 10 spots as he’s still missing his slider. Wood’s increased velocity and overall improved slider have been the two facets of his 2021 success and without the sweeper, he’ll likely continue to struggle.

 

• Tier 10 is a long one and is a mix of exciting arms and disappointments. Ross Stripling gets the biggest jump of the week as his secondary pitches were finally firing on all cylinders. Now with a luscious schedule ahead of him, it’s time to take the dive.
• On the other side of the coin, Rich Hill hasn’t quite looked the same as of late and makes for a tough decision against the Red Sox. He could still be valuable for your squads (he’s at #65, after all), but the confidence is waning.

 

• Logan Gilbert had a moment with strong sliders and changeups that didn’t stick in his weekend outing. The ceiling is apparent now, and hopefully he can jump high enough to reach it constantly.
• Tier 11 doesn’t contain a whole lot of excitement, though I have to give some props to Patrick Corbin as he had a pair of productive outings for trusting managers. It’s not quite the Corbin we wanted as his slider wasn’t the decimating sweeper we’ve seen in the past, but he’s throwing 92/93 mph and that will help keep the floor decently high.

 

• I was sad to see Tony Gonsolin not only be limited to sub 50 pitches in his second start (he’s dealing with shoulder soreness), but also feature a shadow of his former slider. He still has the #5 spot for the Dodgers, but it’s unclear when or even if he returns to his former self.
• Yes, Dylan Bundy falls once again as he failed to prosper against a stumbling Tigers offense. It’s the point where the juice just isn’t worth the squeeze. Consider other options.

 

• In Tier 12, we’re jumping into the land of desperate streamers and Cole Irvin + Joe Ross have certainly proven worthy of your consideration.  Throw in Sam Long there as well as his curveball tallied a wonderful 42% CSW over the weekend across six frames. I don’t love his changeup and fastball, but there could be something there.
• Matt Manning’s MLB debut was far from what we anticipated two years ago, but maybe there’s more out of his secondaries that we’ll see in future starts. Can’t rule out the ceiling quite yet.

 

• It seems odd to be this favorable toward Zach Thompson, who may not get another start for Miami, but he’s someone else to consider if you need the help. His command allows him to set up batters and the cutter has proven itself as a strong weapon to batters on both sides of the plate.
• Brad Keller was throwing 95 mph in his last outing and that deserves your eyebrow raise, no?

 

• At the end of the tier is Johan Oviedo who just went seven strong against the Marlins and now has a cozy two-start week ahead. It wasn’t a start filled with the most trustable skills, but his stuff is better than many other lackluster options on the wire. It could work.
• In the final tier, we have Brady Singer falling 13 spots as he’s been limited by his own team for his shoulder soreness. He’s still pitching and it could be gone by his next outing, but I’d prefer not to hold and chase something else.

 

• They aren’t the most exciting names, but we have seven new names at the end of The List. Johnny Cueto has a near 15% SwStr on his four-seamer this year, Cody Poteet returns and could be a decent stream, Martin Perez has two solid matchups ahead, Drew Smyly has proven…okay, Carlos Martinez just allowed 8 ER over the weekend but could put that in the past and go six strong in the future, and Kwang Hyun Kim, despite tossing fewer than 50 pitches over the weekend, may act as a solid Toby this week or next.
• Then there’s Caleb Smith, who had his velocity back over the weekend, but didn’t have his secondaries working. Fingers crossed that his slider and/or changeup can show up this week and get us all amped.

 

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Jacob deGromT1	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
2	Gerrit Cole T2	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
3	Yu Darvish	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
4	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
5	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
6	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
7	Lucas Giolito	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
8	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
9	Lance Lynn	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
10	Walker Buehler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+1
11	Carlos Rodón	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
12	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
13	Trevor Bauer	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
14	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-1
15	Trevor Rogers T3	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
16	Freddy Peralta	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+3
17	Framber Valdez	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+9
18	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
19	Robbie Ray T4	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
20	Julio Urías	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+3
21	Sandy Alcantara	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
22	Hyun Jin Ryu	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
23	Joe Musgrove	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+2
24	Pablo López	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
25	Marcus Stroman	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+3
26	Tyler Mahle	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
27	Sean Manaea T5	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Ratio Focused	+5
28	Dinelson Lamet	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+14
29	Zac Gallen	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+UR
30	Yusei Kikuchi	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
31	Lance McCullers Jr.	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+3
32	Ian Anderson	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-2
33	Shohei Ohtani	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+3
34	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+9
35	José Berríos	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+2
36	Kyle Gibson T6	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
37	Aaron Nola	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-20
38	Taijuan Walker	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
39	Chris Bassitt	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+2
40	Dylan Cease T7	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-5
41	Shane McClanahan	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+10
42	Chris Paddack	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+6
43	Blake Snell	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-5
44	Zack Greinke	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
45	Tarik Skubal	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	-
46	Frankie Montas	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+1
47	Luis Castillo	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Stash Option	+7
48	Aaron Civale T8	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-17
49	José Urquidy	Injury Risk Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+3
50	Luis García	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+3
51	Kyle Hendricks	Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+6
52	Anthony DeSclafani	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+4
53	Adam Wainwright	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+17
54	Alek Manoah T9	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+1
55	Kenta Maeda	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-5
56	Alex Wood	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-10
57	Wade Miley	Injury Risk Toby Ratio Focused	+2
58	Patrick Sandoval	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+13
59	Jake Odorizzi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	+13
60	Adbert Alzolay	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+UR
61	Casey Mize T10	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-
62	Ross Stripling	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+37
63	JT Brubaker	Toby Ratio Focused	+6
64	Andrew Heaney	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+2
65	Rich Hill	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-16
66	Domingo Germán	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-6
67	Zach Eflin	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-9
68	Jordan Montgomery	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Ratio Focused	-4
69	Logan Gilbert	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	-6
70	Patrick Corbin T11	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option	+13
71	Tony Gonsolin	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-9
72	Nathan Eovaldi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+1
73	Dallas Keuchel	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-6
74	James Kaprielian	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	-
75	Marco Gonzales	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+4
76	Germán Márquez	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+4
77	Jameson Taillon	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	-
78	Alex Cobb	Streaming Option	+14
79	Griffin Canning	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+2
80	Dylan Bundy	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option	-15
81	Eduardo Rodriguez	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-3
82	Cole Irvin T12	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+2
83	Joe Ross	Strikeout Upside Toby Streaming Option	+4
84	Sam Long	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	+5
85	Matt Manning	Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	+UR
86	Mike Minor	Streaming Option	+2
87	Ryan Yarbrough	Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused	-11
88	Zach Thompson	Playing Time Question Ratio Focused Streaming Option Stash Option	+12
89	Brad Keller	Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+7
90	Johan Oviedo	Streaming Option	+UR
91	Nick Pivetta T13	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+2
92	Johnny Cueto	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
93	Cody Poteet	Streaming Option	+UR
94	Martín Pérez	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
95		Streaming Option	+UR
96	Dane Dunning	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-2
97	Carlos Martínez	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
98	Brady Singer	Injury Risk Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-13
99	Kwang Hyun Kim	Playing Time Question Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
100	Caleb Smith	Streaming Option Stash Option	+UR

Photo by Kiyoshi Mio/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)