The List 6/14: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – Week 12

It’s the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball and it’s time for Week 12’s starting pitcher rankings.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00am – 11:00am EST Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream for The List.

As always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

For those unaware:

• Cherry Bomb = A volatile pitcher who is either super sweet or blows up in your face. There are few middle grounds.
• Toby = A middling pitcher who you can’t decide if they do enough to stay on your team and give you the itch to drop every single day. Named after Toby from The Office.

Here are the rules for those wondering why a pitcher is or isn’t ranked here:

1. If a pitcher is on the IL or out of the rotation and not confirmed for a start this week, they are pushed into the Fringe table.
2. If a pitcher is in a rotation and not confirmed to start but has not been placed on the IL or officially removed, they remain on The List.
3. These rankings are made as if I am drafting a team today for the rest of the season.
4. This means the Top 40-50 picks are more for ROS, while the rankings after are more short-term focused.
5. I will only incorporate a game played on Monday if the pitcher’s performance is completed before 2:00pm EST.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• I’m so relieved to keep Jacob deGrom on The List as it looks like he’s going to make his next start. Phew. I was tempted to make an empty Tier 1 just for him if he were placed on the IL,
• Tier 2…is different. A lot different. I’ll do my best to articulate why I’ve changed so much and bear with me. In short, we’re into June now and it’s getting too hard to ignore some flaws that haven’t changed (Shane Bieber’s failure to keep the ball down, Trevor Bauer’s very clear decline in spin rate leading to struggles) while other new skills that haven’t gone away (Zack Wheeler’s increased strikeouts, Carlos Rodón’s velocity jumps).

 

• Seriously, Carlos Rodón’s velocity jump is insane. He averaged under 93.5 mph on his four-seamer in the past and hit averaged 97.5 mph on Sunday. CRAZY. The main question is how high that velocity will stay up through the entirety of the season and for 2+ months, it’s only gotten better. Welcome to the Top 15.
• Back to Tier 2. I surprised myself a bit with Yu Darvish landing in the #3 spot, but he’s been incredibly steady and doesn’t carry the injury question of Max Scherzer (left Friday’s start early) and Brandon Woodruff’s likely innings cap.

 

• Zack Wheeler gets the jump that his performance has demanded and with some question marks for those below him, I couldn’t deny it any longer. That four-seamer is simply too dang good.
• Lance Lynn, Tyler Glasnow, and Lucas Giolito all pile into the Top 10 as well, as each have showcased an ability to go deep into games, while the tallying large strikeout rates. Giolito’s four-start stretch seems to be behind him, though the scar is still there and pulls him to the bottom of the tier.

 

• Tier 3 carries Rodón + the fallen trio of Walker Buehler, Shane Bieber, and Corbin Burnes. Buehler has been productive ratio-wise, but his strikeout numbers have fallen as his secondary stuff has taken a step backward + he doesn’t have the same innings leash as those in Tier 2. Bieber hasn’t thrown his cutter, forcing his breakers to land in the zone too often, making him more hittable than ever, inflating his WHIP. I think he will improve, but it was time to give the spotlight to others who give us less reason to worry.
• Finally, there’s Burnes who hasn’t been nearly as effective as his opening month, dipped in his spin rates, and has been too reliant on his cutter as of late. I still love Burnes and think he’ll perform well, but paired with an innings cap that all others inside the Top 15 don’t carry, he has to take a hit in the rankings.

 

• Tier 4 gives us Trevor Bauer, whose drop in spin rates have been most apparent as he’s struggled with his four-seamer. There’s a sense that he can’t perform at an elite level without it, though it’s not like Bauer was terrible in 2018 when he didn’t use the sticky stuff. Pair that with a huge ceiling in innings + a winning ball club and Bauer is still Top 20. Just not a Cy-Young ace.
• Don’t take Aaron Nola’s “-1” harshly, that’s just Rodón jumping ahead. It’s great to see Nola stabilize against the Yankees, I’d love to see one more start with two of his three pitches working (changeup was missing) to begin the process of raising him back up The List.

 

• Tier 5 leads off with Robbie Ray, who continues to plow forward with 23 strikeouts to his name across his last two starts. There is a heightened HR risk given his propensity at the top of the zone, but I’m not sure it’ll lead to an implosion. Throw in a curveball that hasn’t returned yet and there’s still room to grow.
• Framber Valdez closes the tier as an arm who could find himself in the Top 20 soon enough. Just give us two more starts of 7+ innings and you’ve got it, Framber.

 

• Tier 6 contains many fun names, including the return of Lance McCullers, who doesn’t deserve the #34 rank for this week (Jake Odorizzi will be following him), but as an arm who should be a steady rock through the end of the season now. He’ll likely be in Tier 5 in future weeks as he stretches back out.
• Yusei Kikuchi continues to fire 96 mph and favor low-90s cutters mixed with sliders to great effect. Keep starting him and don’t look back.

 

• In Tier 7, Blake Snell’s encouraging outing was nullified as he struggled to land a break in the zone, returning to a changeup that…didn’t serve him well. I have to believe it clicks in for Snell at some point (maybe next time?) but he falls until then. The stuff is simply too good.
• Kyle Gibson, Taijuan Walker, and Chris Bassitt have been steady rocks for teams and have given little reason to stop trusting them, regardless of opponent. Let it ride, let it ride.

 

• I gave a huge jump to Dinelson Lamet as he’s getting stretched out more each start for the Padres. We’re close to having proper Lamet make and that should excite all of us.
• Shohei Ohtani jumps up as well as he’s been plenty more consistent over the last month. It may be a product of not tossing max-effort fastballs through starts, instead starting slow and building up, allowing him to throw more pitches inside the zone. It’s working, and hopefully it lasts.

 

• Alex Wood falls to Tier 8 as his slider has disappeared across his last two starts. I’m a little concerned it may not return for a bit and I’m hoping it returns from its vacation next time out.
• I gave a drop to Rich Hill as well as he got roughed up by the Orioles. Pair that with a high likelihood of injury at some point this season + the Rays limiting his pitch counts here and there to help keep him healthy, I elected to lower him to #48.

 

• Chris Paddack performed as well as I’ve seen him since 2019 over the weekend, tossing 97 mph heaters up in the zone while his changeup did damage in the bottom third. Even without his curveball doing much work, if this version of Paddack sticks around, he’ll continue to climb the ranks.
• It’s time to welcome Kenta Maeda back to The List as he returns from injury to face the Mariners. We’re not sure what we’re going to get in this one and he only tossed 54 pitches in his final rehab start. Let’s hope the slider and splitter are working wonders.

 

• I had to give a drop to Shane McClanahan after he lasted just four frames and continues to disappoint those hoping to see six innings from the southpaw. I still love the stuff and believe he’ll excel when allowed to 90+ pitches, but I understand some need more volume from the roster spot.
• I’m a touch worried that Alek Manoah’s changeup has disappeared in his two starts following his MLB Debut, though it could return and carry the ceiling of a Top 50 arm very much worthy of your rotation.

 

• In Tier 9, I want to give Kyle Hendricks a bump, but he hasn’t quite looked like ole reliable for a good bit – Hendricks has been teetering the edge of productivity and the waiver wire, making him act more as a Toby than a proper #2/#3 that you drafted him for.
• Domingo German was not nearly the man we’re used to over the weekend, leaving tons of pitches over the heart of the plate and earned just one whiff on his curveball. I still like him for your teams (technically, #60 SP = A #5 SP!), but he could be trending in the wrong direction moving forward.

 

• I gave a massive jump to Logan Gilbert, but it’s not that huge of a deal – 83 to 63 is more of “not really relevant now” to “Hey! Consider this guy a bit!” Gilbert had a much better slider and changeup in his last start and while I’m not sure if both will show up in the same way next time, he should be swooped up as he faces the Rays.
• I’m itching to watch Tony Gonsolin on Monday night in hopes that his slider can be as good as we’ve seen in previous years. The pitch was all but gone when he returned from the IL last week and a Gonsolin with his slider and splitter is a Top 40 arm.

 

• Tier 10 has arrived and we’re still wondering what to make of Dylan Bundy. He had a “step forward” last time, but isn’t quite the arm we envisioned in March. Show me a slider-heavy focus that leads to success and we’re golden.
• Patrick Sandoval and James Kaprielian are looking like decent arms to stream at the moment, with the Irish Panada Panda having a lovely schedule and Kap getting it done with a four-seamer and strong breaker.

 

• The Fratty Pirate (aka Ryan Yarbrough) has bounced around and seems to be settling in as a decent Toby around the late 70s. Don’t overlook him when you need a Win or decent ratios against a middling squad.
• Tier 11 is the tier of disappointment and intrigue, with a sizeable drop handed to Jameson Taillon. I’ve had a lot of faith in Taillon figuring out his breakers to complement his four-seamer, but it hasn’t come together and it’s too late into the season to keep expecting better. Keep tabs of him on the wire, though.

 

• Tucker Davidson should be monitored, though there’s no reason to pick him up and bench against the Red Sox. Consider adding him after the start, especially if the skills are there.
• Marco Gonzales‘ return from the IL hasn’t been nearly as smooth as we’ve hoped, looking more like a waiver-wire streamer than a Spider-Man akin to his 2020 campaign. I don’t believe the risk is worth the reward at this point.

 

• Tier 12 is where you’re finding a lot of the questionable streaming options, from Joe Ross‘ recent explosion to Matthew Boyd’s suspicious repertoire and Brady Singer’s “possibly-good-enough-to-roster-but-other-days-it-hurts-your-squad” combo of sinkers and sliders.
• A pair of rookies in Sammy Long and Tony Santillan made their debuts in the majors and on The List. Long has a great curveball that propelled him to success against the Rangers and could continue to produce. Santillan has mid-90s heat with a decent breaker, but the command was wonky. He could iron it out in the future as he moves past his MLB Debut jitters.

 

• Finally, there’s the thirteenth tier, carrying Josh Fleming, Brad Keller, and Zach Davies, each making a return to The List. Consider them as streamers and nothing more.
• Nick Pivetta falls down as he simply hasn’t executed the BSB as well as his stuff demands. His ratios will be in question, but consider him an option for Wins and strikeouts.

 

• Vladimir Gutiérrez makes his debut as he could be a deep streaming option. I don’t love what he brings to the table, but there’s enough here for some value.
• At the coveted #100 pitck, Zach Thompson makes an appearance after dominating Atlanta with a dastardly cutter and a low-to-mid 90s heater. There could be something there if his cutter can perform this well, but in all likelihood, it comes back down to Earth in his next outing.

 

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Jacob deGromT1	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
2	Gerrit Cole T2	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
3	Yu Darvish	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
4	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
5	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
6	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+5
7	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
8	Lance Lynn	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+4
9	Tyler Glasnow	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside	+5
10	Lucas Giolito	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
11	Walker Buehler T3	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-2
12	Shane Bieber	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-9
13	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-5
14	Carlos Rodón	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+5
15	Kevin Gausman T4	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
16	Trevor Bauer	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-9
17	Aaron Nola	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
18	Trevor Rogers	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
19	Freddy Peralta	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+2
20	Hyun Jin Ryu	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-3
21	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
22	Robbie Ray T5	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+4
23	Julio Urías	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-3
24	Sandy Alcantara	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
25	Joe Musgrove	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-1
26	Framber Valdez	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+5
27	Pablo López T6	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
28	Marcus Stroman	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+2
29	Tyler Mahle	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
30	Ian Anderson	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+2
31	Aaron Civale	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+4
32	Sean Manaea	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Ratio Focused	+4
33	Yusei Kikuchi	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+6
34	Lance McCullers Jr.	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+UR
35	Dylan Cease	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+7
36	Shohei Ohtani T7	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+14
37	José Berríos	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+1
38	Blake Snell	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-10
39	Kyle Gibson	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+7
40	Taijuan Walker	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+8
41	Chris Bassitt T8	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+2
42	Dinelson Lamet	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+16
43	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-9
44	Zack Greinke	Ace Potential Quality Starts	-7
45	Tarik Skubal	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+4
46	Alex Wood T9	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-17
47	Frankie Montas	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-
48	Chris Paddack	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+17
49	Rich Hill	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-8
50	Kenta Maeda	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+UR
51	Shane McClanahan	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	-11
52	José Urquidy	Injury Risk Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+2
53	Luis García	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-1
54	Luis Castillo	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Stash Option	+2
55	Alek Manoah	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-4
56	Anthony DeSclafani T10	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+6
57	Kyle Hendricks	Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-4
58	Zach Eflin	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-3
59	Wade Miley	Injury Risk Toby Ratio Focused	+2
60	Domingo Germán	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-15
61	Casey Mize	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+9
62	Tony Gonsolin	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-5
63	Logan Gilbert	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	+20
64	Jordan Montgomery	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Ratio Focused	-4
65	Dylan Bundy T11	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option	-1
66	Andrew Heaney	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+3
67	Dallas Keuchel	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+7
68	Steven Matz	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+8
69	JT Brubaker	Toby Ratio Focused	+6
70	Adam Wainwright	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+8
71	Patrick Sandoval	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+14
72	Jake Odorizzi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	-1
73	Nathan Eovaldi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-10
74	James Kaprielian	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+16
75	Austin Gomber	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+9
76	Ryan Yarbrough T12	Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused	+11
77	Jameson Taillon	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-10
78	Eduardo Rodriguez	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-1
79	Marco Gonzales	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-13
80	Germán Márquez	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-12
81	Griffin Canning	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+7
82	Tucker Davidson	Playing Time Question Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+18
83	Patrick Corbin	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option	+3
84	Cole Irvin T13	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+9
85	Brady Singer	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+6
86	Matthew Boyd	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Toby	+3
87	Joe Ross	Strikeout Upside Toby Streaming Option	+10
88	Mike Minor	Streaming Option	+6
89	Sam Long	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	+UR
90	Tony Santillan	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	+UR
91	Josh Fleming T14	Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+UR
92	Alex Cobb	Streaming Option	-13
93	Nick Pivetta	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-13
94	Dane Dunning	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-2
95	Tyler Anderson	Toby Streaming Option	-
96	Brad Keller	Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
97	Zach Davies	Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
98	Vladimir Gutierrez	Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+UR
99	Ross Stripling	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-
100	Zach Thompson	Playing Time Question Ratio Focused Streaming Option Stash Option	+UR

Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)