The List 5/8: Top 100 Starting Pitchers – Week 6 Fantasy Baseball 2023

Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 1:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.

For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:

1. This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
2. We have two tables to review before the notes and rankings. First is an injury table that outlines where players would be relatively ranked if fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
3. If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
4. Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
5. Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. Tier 10 is likely going to underperform those in Tier 11 across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase Tier 10’s ceiling vs. settling for Tier 11’s floor.
6. I’ve made a decision to limit labels to just one label per player, with few exceptions for a second. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
7. The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.

 

Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots:

I made a decision last year: I removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.

Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” It’s difficult to update this week-to-week and I apologize if the ranking is different when the player actually returns from the IL. I hope it helps!

One last point about that – often times pitchers need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.

Now let’s take a look at the pitchers I considered for the Top 100 but didn’t quite make the cut:

 

 

I added something new to The List this season. It’s a small table of the prospects I’m personally excited about who would jump up The List quickly if they were confirmed in the rotation. Please don’t read too much into these, there are far better prospect analysts out there than me. Still, I think this table will help you quickly stay on top of who should be on your radar.

They are ordered by my general preference/focus on those guys right now. If any of these are called up, they should be added to your 12-teamers ASAP. Some guys aren’t here (DL Hall and Gavin Stone for example), and that’s due to my own belief they aren’t as pressing as the ones below. I could be very wrong there.

Colors: Green = Most excited about. Yellow = Solid but not as urgent. Orange = Will likely take some time.

 

Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, as each week’s update will reflect the comments and findings from those daily articles. If you’re unfamiliar with some of the players listed, I highly recommend that you read my 45,000+ Top 300 Starting Pitchers from February. Many things will have changed, but the root of my perception of these players is outlined there.

Let’s get to it.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• I know there are going to be a ton of comments about I hate how much these rankings change each week and I’m going to get out ahead of them here.
• These rankings mostly change in the back half of The List as that’s your waiver wire. Those aren’t the players you hold onto throughout the year like your SPs 1-4, which means we’re going to be a bit more chaotic and roll with the waves more aggressively. If I see elements that suggest a pitcher could be a Top 40 arm, I’m going to move up a ton from the 80s to the 60s. Shazam, there we go.

 

• As is tradition, I need to tell you about the guys who were removed and added from the Top 60, so you have context for the ranking shifts.
• Added: Brandon Pfaadt (59)
• Removed: Gavin Stone (53), Mason Miller (46) Kyle Wright (56)
• Net Gain Inside Top 60: (+1)

 

• The top tier is exactly the same as last week. I didn’t bring Sandy Alcantara back into the mix simply because he’s already had one incredible start this season only to take a step back the next. I’m optimistic, but didn’t want to make the change this time around.
• Speaking of tier two, it’s the interesting tier this week. There’s a rumor that Max Fried needs IL time (it would likely be Jared Shuster replacing him, I’d place him around the 80s around Yusei Kikuchi), Zack Wheeler hasn’t been particularly sharp, Clayton Kershaw stumbled, and Justin Verlander was…fine in his return from the IL.

 

• That means I was able to jump Zac Gallen all the way up to #9. It’s wild and feels a little weird (I’m a Gallen Gal, don’t worry!) and I imagine this has a good chance of being the peak ranking as those behind him get their acts together.
• One of the biggest movers this week was Max Scherzer as he fell 13 spots after news of his lingering scapula injury came out. It puts managers in a tough position – does Scherzer hit the IL in the near future? Is 80% of Scherzer good enough? WHAT AM I SUPPOSED TO DO?! It’s difficult to weigh the ceiling and floor here and I felt at #24 was the right balance I could make.

 

• Sticking with the second tier, I moved Aaron Nola down to #16 and stripped him of his AGA title. Sorry fella, he’s not locked in as we know he should be and if his heater gets a little more velo and the changeup is better (and maybe the cutter becomes a staple?), then I’ll give it back.
• I gave a small bump to Pablo López and Freddy Peralta, vaulting them over Joe Musgrove and Framber Valdez. Don’t read too much into it – I see the former getting better while the latter pair are what they are.

 

• The fourth tier is where we see the proper SP #3 family – guys who may not ascend to AGA levels but you’re depending on them week-to-week for solid ratios and hopefully a fair number of strikeouts as well. I gave some love to Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Bassitt, and Justin Steele, with Steele being the most confusing of the bunch – he’s flipped the script with his four-seamer being better than his slider and I wonder which happens first: his slider gets better or his fastball gets worse. I hope it’s the former.

 

• I may look like I’m being too aggressive on Tanner Bibee, Bryce Miller, and Hunter Brown (and not Mason Miller as he is dealing with elbow tightness. Yes, I had a live eulogy on stream while creating The List today. It was a moment.), though I don’t see how you can’t favor them this highly at this point. The SP Landscape has thinned dramatically – look at that injury table, 10+ legit arms on the shelf! – and remember, The List is a relative rank. I’d favor Bibee, Bryce, and Brown over uncertain arms below considering how much I believe in their arsenals and situations.

 

• Did you wish Alex Fast a Happy Birthday?! The man turned 3(x) this weekend and I’m going to honor him by giving y’all 20% off yearly PL Pro and PL+ subscriptions this week with promo code FASTBIRTHDAY. You can sign up here and gain access to our daily and weekly fantasy + DFS projections, Discord access, 2024 pre-draft tools ad-free website, and much more. I’ll see you on the Discord and let’s embarrass Alex together.

 

• Staying in Tier 5, it’s a tier of legit upside mixed with uncertainly of how it’ll play out in the near future. Hunter Greene has showcased himself as a Cherry Bomb, while Chris Sale just sat 96 mph and Lucas Giolito…had a great start with his command but his changeup wasn’t there and he sat just 92 mph.
• I was really tempted to slot Nick Lodolo into this tier, but I feel as if he’s a small step below at the moment (and I may very well regret it). He’s looking like a Cherry Bomb with his massive HR rate in a park you don’t want to be susceptible to the longball as the curve hasn’t been as effective as we’ve seen.

 

• The others in Tier 6 are those I feel should be better but haven’t come into their own. The Logan Gilbert drop may be jolting for some – eleven spots despite a solid outing across the board?! – but I question if the curveball he showcased will stick around and I’m personally not convinced he’s on the path to being an SP #2 for your team. Not enough has changed in his arsenal to make me believe his 29.5% strikeout rate will stick as the ERA will likely be higher than you want it to be.
• I also get a queasy feeling about Charlie Morton, who is turning into a two-pitch pitcher with only one elite pitch (his curveball). I find myself doing a bit of mental gymnastics convincing myself that the four-seamer is, in fact, great, when it’s been a weak point for a while. Is he actually going to turn the corner and be a stable SP #3 for you this season or is it time for us to move past Morton?

 

• I don’t hide away from my love for Reid Detmers and I left his last start with optimism despite getting tagged for 4 ER. 1) He faced the Rangers 2) He maintained a 20%+ SwStr rate on sliders and 3) His four-seamer velocity was massively up at 96 mph. Stick with him, this should work well in your favor, especially when he doesn’t face elite offenses.
• Oh yeah, Blake Snell is here too. Oddly enough, he performed well against the Dodgers, but he did so without his breakers, a poorly spotted heater, and with a changeup I don’t personally trust. I’m still waiting for him to find his footing and pitching in a sustainably successful fashion.

 

• Tier 7 has a ton of pitchers who have found their way onto fantasy teams. Eduardo Rodriguez has killed it with his cutter, Zach Eflin came out swinging in his return from the IL, and despite a rough schedule ahead, Bailey Ober could be a solid play throughout the season with his high heater and low sliders & changeups.
• I gave a dip to Logan Allen as I don’t believe he carries the same ceiling as the other top prospects. He’s a solid arm, but he doesn’t pack the same punch with his heater and secondaries.

 

• Two of the biggest risers can be found here – Mitch Keller and Anthony DeSclafani. I’m doing my best to rectify these two mistakes this week with Keller getting the nod as I’m starting to believe his cutter/four-seamer mix could continue as hard-contact suppressers.
• As for Tony Disco, I overestimated his rough schedule and with the difficult plays behind him, he’s looking like a strong arm with his slider-first approach. Don’t get too enamored, though – I don’t expect it to last for a full season.

 

• I’d be putting Bobby Miller or Matthew Liberatore around the middle of this tier if they happen to get the call before next week. They are currently my two primary stash options (moreso than Taj Bradley).

 

• Let’s welcome Brandon Pfaadt to The List for the first time this season. His MLB debut had all the reasons to go poorly against the Rangers and now with the Marlins ahead, I’d anticipate a solid bounce back with his slider and four-seamer. Don’t give up quite yet.
• Sorry Graham Ashcraft, your hard velocity doesn’t work perfectly if you can’t locate them well. I’m skeptical he’ll unlock his potential this season or at least in the near future.

 

• Tier eight has another pair of prospects arriving this week. J.P. France made his MLB debut and flexed decently commanded cutters, four-seamers, sliders, and cutters against the Mariners. With the White Sox next, I’m all for adding him now and seeing how long his success can last – the Astros need a reliable starter these days.
• Louie Varland also got the call from the minors, albeit not in an MLB debut scenario. I was disappointed to see his velocity fall 1.5 ticks from what we saw in April and I’m cautious with his next starts against the Padres and Cubs. That said, he still has potential with his fastball and slider and he could keep his head above water in the short term before swimming with grace.

 

• Another prospect in Tier 8 is Luis Ortiz, who I’m not buying into a whole lot. His slider is great, but despite the elite velocity, Ortiz’s four-seamer returned just a 7% SwStr in its small sample. It’s not as overpowering as I want it to be and I worry he made be more Cherry Bomb-esque than we like. That said, he’s still Top 70 and likely worthwhile instead of your last SP.
• It pains me to drop Andrew Heaney, Alek Manoah, and Grayson Rodriguez, but I don’t have much of a choice at the moment. Heaney is awfully volatile, Manoah’s command is out of whack, and Grayson doesn’t have any command of his secondaries. There are bluer skies in the future, but I have no idea when.

 

• The ninth tier is your safer tier. Patrick Sandoval should hover productivity across the season, Merrill Kelly is your Spider-Man, Jameson Taillon will likely be pushed far more than ~45 pitches this week, and Seth Lugo does enough to earn Wins for a winning team.
• Sean Manaea has his chance with his velocity and I’m encouraged but not completely sold that he can pull it off. We’re in purgatory with the fella at the moment.

 

• We have a small Tier 10, leading with JP Sears as he faces the Yankees Monday evening. His fastball and slider have vastly improved from 2022 and he could turn into the ace of the Athletics staff.
• I intended to raise Domingo Germán more, but his schedule is rough across the next ten days, facing the Rays and Jays. I simply can’t endorse that right now as he’s not a lock for production once the bombardment concludes.

 

• The final trio of the tier can’t be trusted. Hayden Wesneski has yet to come through with whiffs on his breaker, Kodai Senga’s walk issues can be stemmed from his unreliable forkball, and Edward Cabrera simply can’t find enough strikes. All three are major risks.
• Tier 11 is your Toby tier and feel free to arrange them however you like. I personally only consider them as streamers against the right opponents and don’t hold on tightly when a poor matchup arises.

 

• Tier 12 is Tier 10 but worse, smattered with Cherry Bomb players who we simply can’t trust on a given night.
• Yes, that includes Yusei Kikuchi who I strongly feel “got away with one” against the Pirates over the weekend. His command issues are still a thing and I wouldn’t get sucked in here.

 

• The rest of tier has me in fits. Jack Flaherty’s velocity sways by start, Drew Smyly has a rough schedule ahead and has begun to lose his curveball, José Berríos is still The Great Undulator, and Griffin Canning may not be able to squeeze everything out of his repertoire on a given night.
• I want to like Ryne Nelson more as he raised his four-seamer velocity two ticks on Sunday, but his secondaries have failed to come through this year. Here’s to hoping something clicks soon.

 

• If you don’t want anything to do with Brady Singer, I really don’t blame you. Go ahead and drop him, though I think we can all recognize that his ERA won’t be this high in October. He’s a Cherry Bomb and he’ll have his good stretch at some point.
• It’s best for us to sit and wait on Johan Oviedo and Brayan Bello to get comfortable in the majors. Oviedo’s command holds him back while Bello needs to find the right balance of sliders and changeups before we can add them to our 12-teamers.

 

• The final tier is your usually “yeah they exist”. I’m not starting Matthew Boyd until he earns slider whiffs, Kyle Bradish only works when his slider and curveball are dominant, Kyle Gibson is as elusive as any, Taijuan Walker may have figured something out with 50%+ splitters, but I’m not buying it after one start, and Peyton Battenfield has a rotation spot for now with the Guardians.
• Marco Gonzales has improved his command recently and with a start against the Tigers, it’s now the time to pounce just for one game. I’m ready for it.

 

• Lastly at the coveted #100 spot is James Paxton as he’s expected to make his return in…84 years to the majors. My expectations are low but at least you know it’s going to happen. Who knows? Maybe he’s sitting 96 mph and has his old cutter.

 

SCROLL BACK UP AND READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Gerrit ColeT1	Aces Gonna Ace	-
2	Shane McClanahan	Aces Gonna Ace	-
3	Spencer Strider	Aces Gonna Ace	-
4	Shohei Ohtani	Aces Gonna Ace	-
5	Luis Castillo	Aces Gonna Ace	-
6	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace	-
7	Sandy Alcantara T2	Aces Gonna Ace	-
8	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace	-
9	Zac Gallen	Aces Gonna Ace	+3
10	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
11	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
12	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	+1
13	Justin Verlander	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
14	Cristian Javier	Aces Gonna Ace	+2
15	Joe Ryan T3	Ace Potential	+3
16	Aaron Nola	Ace Potential	-1
17	Dylan Cease	Ace Potential	-
18	Julio Urías	Ace Potential	+1
19	Yu Darvish	Ace Potential	+1
20	Pablo López	Ace Potential	+3
21	Freddy Peralta	Ace Potential	+3
22	Joe Musgrove	Ace Potential	-1
23	Framber Valdez	Ace Potential	-1
24	Max Scherzer	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-13
25	Sonny Gray	Ace Potential	-
26	Jesús Luzardo	Ace Potential	-
27	Shane Bieber T4	Ace Potential	+1
28	George Kirby	Ace Potential	-1
29	Drew Rasmussen	Ace Potential	+3
30	Nathan Eovaldi	Quality Starts	+5
31	Logan Webb	Ace Potential	+3
32	Nestor Cortes	Ace Potential	-1
33	Justin Steele	Ace Potential	+6
34	Chris Bassitt	Ace Potential	+7
35	Jordan Montgomery	Quality Starts	+5
36	Lance Lynn T5	Ace Potential	+1
37	Tanner Bibee	Ace Potential	+6
38	Bryce Miller	Ace Potential	+24
39	Hunter Brown	Ace Potential	-3
40	Hunter Greene	Ace Potential	-11
41	Chris Sale	Ace Potential	+8
42	Lucas Giolito	Ace Potential	+6
43	Logan Gilbert T6	Ace Potential	-10
44	Reid Detmers	Ace Potential	-2
45	Nick Lodolo	Ace Potential	-15
46	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential	-8
47	Blake Snell	Ace Potential	+4
48	Eduardo Rodriguez T7	Quality Starts	+9
49	Logan Allen	Ace Potential	-5
50	Dustin May	Ratio Focused	+5
51	Marcus Stroman	Quality Starts	+3
52	Mitch Keller	Quality Starts	+21
53	Anthony DeSclafani	Quality Starts	+37
54	Zach Eflin	Quality Starts	+11
55	Bailey Ober	Strikeout Upside	+8
56	Josiah Gray	Cherry Bomb	+5
57	Alex Cobb	Cherry Bomb	+9
58	Brandon Pfaadt	Cherry Bomb	+UR
59	Graham Ashcraft	Ratio Focused	-
60	J.P. France T8	Streaming Option	+UR
61	Louie Varland	Strikeout Upside	+UR
62	Andrew Heaney	Strikeout Upside	-15
63	Alek Manoah	Ace Potential	-11
64	Grayson Rodriguez	Ace Potential	-19
65	MacKenzie Gore	Cherry Bomb	+2
66	Tony Gonsolin	Strikeout Upside	+3
67	Luis L. Ortiz	Cherry Bomb	+UR
68	Patrick Sandoval T9	Cherry Bomb	-4
69	Sean Manaea	Cherry Bomb	+5
70	Merrill Kelly	Toby	+10
71	Seth Lugo	Toby	+5
72	Jameson Taillon	Toby	+UR
73	T10	Streaming Option	+11
74	Domingo Germán	Strikeout Upside	+13
75	Hayden Wesneski	Strikeout Upside	-7
76	Kodai Senga	Cherry Bomb	-6
77	Edward Cabrera	Cherry Bomb	-2
78	Martín Pérez T11	Toby	+1
79	Jon Gray	Toby	-1
80	Bryce Elder	Toby	+3
81	Tyler Wells	Toby	-4
82	Tyler Anderson	Toby	-1
83	Cal Quantrill	Toby	+UR
84	Wade Miley	Streaming Option	+9
85	Yusei Kikuchi T12	Cherry Bomb	+1
86	Brady Singer	Cherry Bomb	-4
87	Jack Flaherty	Cherry Bomb	-29
88	José Berríos	Cherry Bomb	-
89		Cherry Bomb	-29
90	Johan Oviedo	Cherry Bomb	-5
91	Brayan Bello	Cherry Bomb	-
92	Griffin Canning	Streaming Option	-21
93	Ryne Nelson	Streaming Option	+2
94	Marco Gonzales T13	Streaming Option	+6
95	Peyton Battenfield	Streaming Option	+UR
96	Matthew Boyd	Strikeout Upside	+1
97	Kyle Bradish	Cherry Bomb	-3
98	Kyle Gibson	Toby	-9
99	Taijuan Walker	Cherry Bomb	+UR
100	James Paxton	Injury Risk Streaming Option	+UR

 

Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)