[pitcher_list list_id=”20766″ season=”2018″ include_stats=”1″]
Welcome to The List – The weekly top 100 rankings of starting pitchers in fantasy baseball for the rest of the season. Use this list to help make choices on the waiver wire and as a tool to gauge trade value in your fantasy leagues. These rankings are made with 5×5 H2H standard 12-team leagues in mind.
Let’s talk about how the SP landscape has changed since last week:
- Clayton Kershaw is coming back on Thursday, with Madison Bumgarner possibly returning on Friday. Carlos Martinez is supposed to return as soon as next weekend and Joey Lucchesi was supposed to be back by now. Injuries are annoying and I did my best to slot them right on The List.
- There’s a tier drop right after James Paxton as Zack Greinke drops to #13, where he should have been two weeks ago.
- I’ve talked about how the 20-50 ranks have always been super close and it was time for me to a do a massive overhaul as I feel more confident in risers and we have more data to abandon others.
- Jose Berrios, Nick Pivetta, and Tyson Ross are some of the biggest benefactors. Berrios has found his curveball again, Pivetta’s number dictate a Top 20 arm thus far and it’s surprisingly believable, and Ross has overcome each obstacle thus far to earn a Top 35 spot.
- Masahiro Tanaka did improve his stock with a solid outing against the Angels Sunday, though his previous start against the Rangers reminded us of the shaky floor that has produced a 4.62 ERA and 1.73 HR/9 this year, forcing a sizeable drop.
- It was also time for Zack Godley to take a fall as his curveball hasn’t gotten the results we’re used to.
- The drops for Garrett Richards, Rick Porcello, and Sean Manaea is large, though I still favor them all over the waiver wire in 12-team leagues, save mostly for Andrew Heaney. They have struggled, but better times should be ahead.
- I now give you full permission to drop Jose Quintana, who has been a massive headache this season. While he should turn it around this year, the players in front of him are producing now and could also be just as helpful through the summer.
- There’s little reason not to chase Ross Stripling as he gets playing time in the Dodgers rotation. His 30%+ K rate and sub 5% walk rate is sublime.
- Entering The List this week are Zach Wheeler (Excellent strikeout numbers), Jeremey Hellickson (on a roll and risky), Frankie Montas (upside but questionable playing time), Anthony Desclafani (Returning shortly and would be a Toby around the 70s), and Joe Musgrove (Tough schedule ahead, but looked great in his 2018 debut).
Kershaw has not thrown a MLB pitch in over a month and you bump him up +9 and knock Verlander back a spot?
How about letting Kershaw pitch a game or two for the Dodgers before saying that he is top tier again.
That sounds like madness!
I mean, it’s one start and we’re talking about the best pitcher on the planet save for a one month span.
But okay, I understand that. Maybe I was a little too aggressive about it.
How do you feel about Jon Gray? ERA is abysmal yet his FIP numbers along with his SIERA going into just a few days ago were hovering around 3. I play in a league with scoring emphasis on Ks for pitchers. Should I expect a ERA regression back to a low-ish 4s or is there something else you’re seeing here? Thanks!
Would you cut manaea in a 10 team qs league and add either tallion or stripling? That home start vs a struggling AZ team who montas & mengden handled with ease was enough to make me pull the plug on him. Thx
I know 2018 Fulmer is your 2017 Nola, but I can’t for the life of me understand why. His ERA is north of 4 (in line with FIP, xFIP), his K/9 is 8. He pitches for a crummy team so he won’t win many games. I know you like his arsenal, but that #24 ranking just seems sooooo optimistic. It’s like a private in-joke you and Sporer have with the rest of the fantasy community.
Very well said dude…feel the same way about the fulmer affair…I’ve invested a lot on him because Nick’s ranks…but neither buying this #24.
Yes, this is well said. Continuing to rank Fulmer in top 40 is enough to make him “your guy” and get across the idea that K% has potential to increase based on arsenal. Don’t need #24.
That said Wood at #23 may be even more baffling. You’ve pointed out that he’s wily enough to be effective despite decreased velo….that’s great for a nice floor, but ceiling is still capped is it not? Surprised to see him actually jump up this week.
Yes. How much longer does Fulmer have to be mediocre for him to drop in the rankings?
I mean, I know you’re kidding, but I want to make it clear that this ranking has nothing to do with Sporer’s feelings (I don’t even know where he ranks him).
I had some backlash on Fulmer on Reddit as well, so I hope it’s okay that I’m copying and pasting from there:
“Yeah, I totally get the problem with Fulmer.
Of course he hasn’t been a Top 25 starter thus far. One of the luxuries I have of running this site is that I get to follow my gut and not have someone else tell me I need to be more conservative at times.
My gut tells me that Fulmer is blossoming into the man he’s meant to be. Last six starts have returned a 3.44 FIP, 14% whiff rate, 1.18 WHIP, and 27% strikeout rate. That is the man I see coming to light from this point moving forward, finally recognizing how to properly wield his slide piece.
I could have placed him in the mid 30s, made everyone happy, and called it a day. But I felt uneasy about it and elected to go with what I’m feeling. I think that works better for everyone in the long run.”
I believe in you, Nick. Even if Fulmer is trashing my ratios tonight.
He’s blossoming into a turd. Another stellar outing tonight.
lol at all these Fulmer hating comments… but I totally agree with y’all. I love Nick’s work here and what he does for everyone in the fantasy arena, but Fulmer is way overrated on this (Nick’s) list. No hate towards Nick just certainly agree that the rank is way wrong.
Too much to cut Danny Salazar to add Bieber?
And what sort of FAAB would you put on him?
Definitely. I’d say only like $2/3.
Dang, didn’t see this in time and made the move. Think Salazar still helps this season?
No so much as a starter, honestly. I have a feeling they’ll turn him into a bullpen arm.
Need to drop a pitcher-
Cahill, Flaherty, Ross, Mengden or Wood
Who would be the drop
You didn’t ask me but I say mengden
Mengden.
Nick, what’s your reasoning behind having Fulmer ranked so high? Him being at #24 seems crazy to me. I own Corbin and this list is technically telling me to drop him for Fulmer. But even with Corbin’s recent velocity issues, there’s no way that I would make that move.
I had some backlash on Fulmer on Reddit as well, so I hope it’s okay that I’m copying and pasting from there:
“Yeah, I totally get the problem with Fulmer.
Of course he hasn’t been a Top 25 starter thus far. One of the luxuries I have of running this site is that I get to follow my gut and not have someone else tell me I need to be more conservative at times.
My gut tells me that Fulmer is blossoming into the man he’s meant to be. Last six starts have returned a 3.44 FIP, 14% whiff rate, 1.18 WHIP, and 27% strikeout rate. That is the man I see coming to light from this point moving forward, finally recognizing how to properly wield his slide piece.
I could have placed him in the mid 30s, made everyone happy, and called it a day. But I felt uneasy about it and elected to go with what I’m feeling. I think that works better for everyone in the long run.”
Nick Pivetta or Tanaka rest of season?
Pivetta.
nick pivetta, clevinger, castillo, weaver, happ and ross are all available, who would you pick up out of the list?
I’d trade other starters and pick up Happ/Pivetta/Ross in that order.
I get your worry with Corbin…and I’ve been following the advanced stats throughout, but is it fair to continue to drop him weekly, while he’s making strides to continue to pitch well, even with lowered velocity? He’s 28 years old, in a walk year, and continuing to be the most impressive D’Backs pitcher this year. Top 20 shouldn’t be out of the question if he can continue to outsmart hitters.
With that said, who would you expect to move him for inside the top 30? I’ve tried 1:1 with pitchers like Manaea, Fulmer, in a dynasty league and got denied. Is there any upside names you’d flip him for that may be a bit lower on the list.
I think it’s super-optimistic to think that Corbin can sustain this with such a dramatic velocity drop. It’s rare thing for pitchers to not decline in production when this happens and we’ve seen enough starts at this valley to believe it’s not going to peak again. It makes for an excellent selling opportunity and by lowering him, I’m trying to get through the emotion of “while he’s making strides to continue to pitch well, even with lowered velocity.” I know where this comes from, and we need to overlook this belief for the probability of the situation. If we wait to see the performance decline, his price on the market will crater. Cash out now.
Mikolas seems like a solid target. Pivetta as well.
What’s this guy’s beef with Marco Gonzales? He hasn’t cracked the top 100 even after carrying a 2.08 era in his last 7 starts? Even when you include his clunkers to start the season he owns a 3.38 xfip. A 3.60 fip. A 3.78 sierra. A 3.38 DRA. He has a prospect background. He’s using two new pitches(a cutter and a sinker). Now I’m not saying Marco is the next Randy Johnson. I ain’t even saying he’s the next Freddy Garcia. But he’s gotta be better than an Anthony DeSclafani. No?
Greg, I’m curious why both times you elected to say “this guy’s beef” when you’re talking to “this guy.”
Anyway, here’s the response I gave you on Reddit if you haven’t seen it:
I will 100% concede that I thought Marco was already on The List so I didn’t add him to the people I needed to add and he got kinda lost in the whole “there are 100 starters here to keep track of” situation.
That being said, he’d probably be around #75-80. I don’t buy him long term at all, but I recognize he’s on a hot streak and I don’t have objections to rolling him out for now. His repertoire doesn’t speak to sustainability and I see this as 2017 Jason Vargas 2.0.
I know he’s performed well thus far and the DIPS numbers like him, but the underlying numbers and repertoire that those high level broad strokes of the brush dictate don’t sell me on a long-term arm.
The way I see it, let’s take that 3.78 SIERA thus far and acknowledge that Marco may be pitching better than his actual ability. There’s a 4.00 ERA pitcher hiding in here in my view.
I think we’ll see that sooner rather than later, but for now, go ahead, roll with him while he’s hot.
Fulmer is awful and should be in the 50s at best.
Hey Nick,
With guys coming off DL, need to drop a SP. Should I drop Kingham or Samardzija? Very deep league.
Thanks
Steven
I need to amend the question with Samardzija going on the DL. Would you drop Kingham or Sonny Gray?
Can I ask why Robbie Ray is so low? Just started following this website/podcast. Is it because he is hurt or because you don’t he is a good pitcher?
Hurt. If you look at the column to the right you’ll see he was as high as #16. He was #19 right before the injury. Here is what Nick said the list after the injury,
“An oblique injury took Robbie Ray out of his start on Sunday and I have to imagine he’s landing on the DL for a good while, forcing a massive drop.”
How is Julio Teheran not on this list?
Cause he blows and his stuff is average, can’t strike people out. He has 12 strike outs all together in his last 4 games and a near 6.00 ERA, with a 1-2 record on a high powered offense.
Happy to see Stripling get a big jump. On your daily podcast you seemed low on him still. 22% hard contact allowed and a 27.8% K-BB and 2.22 FIP. .333 BABIP means he’s probably even been unlucky with all that soft contact. .296 career BABIP. Do you think he can continue climbing up the rankings or are you still not buying in? Thanks!
Nick,
If Archer is OUT this week – who would you start? Hamels vs Hou, Aaron Sanchez vs Balt, or Lance Lynn vs LAA. Choose 1 of them. Thank you!