The List 5/23: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2022 – Week 7

Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 1:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00 am – 11:00 am ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.

For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:

1. This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
2. We have two tables to review before the notes and rankings. First is an injury table that outlines where players would be relatively ranked if fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
3. If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
4. Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
5. Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. Tier 10 is likely going to underperform those in Tier 11 across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase Tier 10’s ceiling vs. settling for Tier 11’s floor.
6. I’ve made a decision to remove all the labels that I struggle to maintain through the season to instead give each player just one label at a time. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
7. The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.

 

Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots:

 

 

I made a decision this year: I’ve removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.

Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” I hope it helps!

One last point about that – often times pitchers need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.

Now let’s take a look at the pitchers I considered for the Top 100 but didn’t quite make the cut:

 

 

Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, or if you want a primer on most of these pitchers, you can check out my 40,000 words from the pre-season via my Top 224 Starting Pitchers for 2022 from February. Both will help you get a grasp of my general thoughts on most of these guys (especially the roundup!) as I simply can’t detail everything about 100 pitchers in these notes each week.

 

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• You’re going to see a whole lotta green today. Not because I’m generous, well I am, but not for this. No, it’s because Max Scherzer, Freddy Peralta, and Mike Clevinger were all removed, granting an innate “+3” to all outside the Top 40. Congrats, you deserved it.
• It means we only have three in the top tier this week. Back to the three amigos, I guess.

 

• The second tier didn’t open up like last week, but I did some small shuffling. I elected to lower Max Fried and Lucas Giolito, not because they were lacking, but because Justin Verlander and Shane McClanahan are just that dang good. I don’t think my assessments of Fried and Giolito are any different than they were a week ago.
• The third tier is interesting. I can see many wanting me to give sizeable jumps to my two favorite stalwarts Zack Wheeler and Sandy Alcantara, though I’m waiting for their grand ascensions to Tier 2 and an AGA label for next week. Just give me one more stellar start, you lovely, lovely people.

 

• No, I’m not lowering Robbie Ray. He’s pumping 94+ mph heaters with a ton of whiffs each start and two bad innings across two full starts do not dictate demise. His skillset is better than we’ve seen all year and I’m all for it.
• I gave a small drop to Frankie Montas moreso because Aaron Nola and Dylan Cease are looking more consistent (despite Nola’s luck) than Montas’ splitter.

 

• I have some concerns about Shane Bieber’s 90/91 mph velocity (it was nearly 94 mph in 2020!), but his breakers are missing a ton of bats to make it still worthwhile.
• I expanded the fourth tier a bit to include Shohei Ohtani, Zac Gallen, and Julio Urías, though they have some reasonable concerns that make them distant from the Top 15. Ohtani’s health brings me worry, Gallen’s infrequently changeup and slider is disheartening, and Urías doesn’t come with the same punch on his heater.

 

• I didn’t do a whole lot to Tier 4, which means they all have wonderful boosts this week. Nathan Eovaldi joins the tier after having the best splitter I’ve seen from him in ages. I don’t trust it’ll be there forever, but hey, that’s a cool thing that could appear again.
• The fifth tier starts with Eric Lauer and Nestor Cortes, both strong southpaws who are carving up offenses. I trust Lauer’s long-term outlook a touch more after Nestor earned just a pair of whiffs on his four-seamer. Lauer’s four-seamer’s 20% SwStr is the highest among all starting pitchers and you should care about that.

 

• I gave a large drop to Charlie Morton and it certainly looks like it means I’ve lost faith in Morton. In actuality, it’s another week of the same question marks from Morton while Skubal, Sandoval, Ryan, etc. all keep proving that they are fantastic starters for your teams. The scales have tipped and Morton took a tumble.
• Do note that Morton is still Top 40. Make this more of a celebration of guys like Tarik Skubal putting it together instead of a dismissal of Morton. Please.

 

• I did a weird thing. Blake Snell, Michael Kopech, and Logan Gilbert felt lost in this world between worlds. A bridge in the stars, standing between two doors. One leads to success and joy. The other is the land of the forgotten, full of despair and struggle. I feel as though this lost trio are all a step closer to the wonderous plane of existence than those below and felt they needed a tier to themselves. Let’s hope Snell makes his fastball adjustment, Kopech keeps his velocity, and Gilbert’s slider earns whiffs.

 

• Tier seven is where things begin to get messy. Seriously, there’s such a shrug when it comes to #42-#73. I trust all of you reading this will not go nuts about someone ranked in the high 60s you like more than a guy in the low 50s…right? PLEASE UNDERSTAND.
• I’ve given a sizeable raise to Framber Valdez this week. Among this sea of uncertainty, Valdez feels more stable than the rest. I don’t think you’ll see him any higher than this across the season – I feel like he’s firmly planted moving forward – and recognize that this rank is more representative of the skepticism I have for those below him than validation for Valdez.

 

• Trevor Rogers has fallen down here as we’re another start further and he’s yet to capture the magic of his changeup and slider once again. If I were a betting man, I’d say his they both return before the all-star break, and it’s so hard to determine what you should do. I recognize the pain, do whatever you need to do and don’t feel bad about it.
• Some may be surprised to see George Kirby still inside the Top 50, and the reasoning is simple. His four-seamer creates a high floor and I’m not letting 4 ER off a pair of Trevor Story homeruns suddenly change that. I wish his slider was a better whiff pitch, but his floor should be reasonably high moving forward.

 

• Tier 8 is a struggle and I still don’t know if I did the right thing placing some of these guys above those in Tier 9 or not. It’s the point of The List where we’re up against the way of the premier Toby pitchers (Sup Miles Mikolas) and I’m determining if you’re better off chasing a higher ceiling or settling for a good floor.
• I reluctantly gave a large drop to Alex Wood, which doesn’t seem incredibly fair given a start in Coors last week + a matchup against the lefty-mashing Padres. That said, normally those in poor matchups come on top at least once, and Wood, despite sitting 92 mph, isn’t instilling confidence at the moment. Hold onto him for the Reds this week and pray the slider returns in full.

 

• With Jon Gray healthy and facing the Athletics & rays next, I’m stoked for what’s ahead. His slider is looking great, he’s sitting above 95 mph, and can be a consistent producer for your squads moving forward.

 

• We start to devolve a good amount into a weekly ranking here, where there are many pitchers you don’t want to hold onto if you’re not starting them that week – it’s simply not worth the roster spot to stash them as you bench them vs. the Dodgers. Keep that fluidity in mind from this point onward.
• Among the solid Toby arms is the return of Marcus Stroman, plus Drew Rasmussen, who once again had an outburst of whiffs with his slider and cutter. I’m skeptical he can repeat it, but it may spell a massive rise on the next few weeks.

 

• I made a small Tier 10 containing the upside plays in between Toby tiers. MacKenzie Gore is now starting for the Padres with Clevinger on the IL and could come into form. Tony Gonsolin finally had a wonderful night throwing strikes with his slider, and Cristian Javier overwhelmed the Rangers with his four-seamer. Let’s hope they all soar with their new hype.
• I’m awfully shocked that Hunter Greene has suddenly shifted to being a slider-first pitcher, 98+ mph heater second. This could play out like peak Huascar Ynoa if he’s able to consistently earn strikes with the slide piece. Suddenly I’m back in on Hunter…?

 

• I’m stoked to see Aaron Ashby firmly in the rotation for the Brewers moving forward with Freddy Peralta’s injury. I wouldn’t call myself a fan of his first start against the Padres, but I envision him taking strides once in rhythm of the rotation and becoming a legit arm through the year.

 

• The 11th tier is bookended by Tobys with Roansy Contreras plopped in the middle. Contreras is making his 2022 debut against Rockie Road followed by a tough start against the Dodgers and my instinct is that he won’t be worth your time until after that second start. That said, he throws hard with a strong breaker and could be an impact play moving forward. Feel free to pick him up and see how he pitches on Tuesday.
• As for the Tobys, it’s hard to deny the Vargas Rule that is Martín Pérez right now, while Hyun Jin Ryu is in a good position to steal some Wins for Toronto.

 

• Sadly, I had to give a dip to Merrill Kelly, who hasn’t had the 93+ mph velocity nor his new changeup we saw in early April. He is who he is.
• Carlos Carrasco has gone through ups and downs this year and his last start was the first without either his slider or changeup giving him support. It’s a tough start ahead against the Phillies, and I see him more as a matchup play than a must-roster.

 

• Keep in mind, Michael Lorenzen has performed well against the Athletics lately and I still question if he’s able to produce against stronger opponents, like the Blue Jays later this week. He’s not someone you hold on through gauntlets of opponents.
• Lastly, Marco Gonzales has looked like the best version of himself and he slides comfortably inside the Top 75 because of it. Not sure this will last too long, though.

 

• Instead of an upside tier, I felt there was another tier of Toby arms who were simply a step down from the others for Tier 12. Zach Eflin, for example, just exploded for 12 strikeouts against the Dodgers, but it was caused by a sudden start of 33% curveballs…and we can’t trust yet that he’ll have a similar approach moving forward.
• Is there a more consistent Toby out there than Cal Quantrill? You’ll be hard pressed to find one, sadly he doesn’t play for a winning team like Tyler Anderson does.

 

• I don’t see Paul Blackburn as a pitcher you need to covet on your teams, thus dropping him down to #78. Feel free to still roll with him, but he isn’t as solid as the others.
• I hope Ranger Suárez can get consistent with his changeup – he’ll need to if he wants to soar like he did in 2021.

 

• Finally, some upside. The next two tiers are your ceiling guys who have a shot at breaking above the boring floor guys above. Tier 13 is all about “yeah, but is this real?” with six new entries to The List. Yusei Kikuchi has been on a roll that I feel is a bit of smoke and mirrors, Nick Pivetta has allowed just 2 ER in his last three starts but we’ve seen this story before, Jeffrey Springs has a gorgeous changeup…and not much else (91/92), while Brady Singer had a changeup and now doesn’t, making him the same ole two-pitch guy from 2021.

 

• Sadly, those who took stabs at Garrett Whitlock and Kyle Bradish are feeling the pain at the moment. It happens, and it doesn’t mean they are destined to struggle across the next 4.5 months. There’s a chance they turn it around as soon as next start.
• Justin Steele just fanned ten Diamondbacks hitters…and I really don’t buy it. Feel free to take the chance if you like, but I don’t think it’s going to work out in the end. There just isn’t enough there + his command is far from precise.

 

• To end the tier is Matthew Liberatore, who wasn’t all too impressive in his MLB debut over the weekend. He’s taking the place of Steven Matz and hopefully it’ll give him the chance to develop his heater further, backing up his excellent hook.
• Tier 14 is a crew of guys who could be something, but I have lower expectations on them hitting it in the short term. Okay, save for Chad Kuhl and JT Brubaker who make for decent streams against weak opponents and face off against each other tonight. I’m curious how that one will play out.

 

• It does mean I’m mostly out on Chase Silseth for now, as he was a guy to pursue with a start against the Athletics and take it from there. Now with the Jays ahead, I don’t see enough to warrant starting him there or stashing him for future outings.
• I really hope Reid Detmers can find his slider in the near future, but until then, I’d sit this out. His fastball/curveball combo relies too heavily on balls in play for my rosters.

 

• And finally, we have the bottom tier, containing a few extra pitchers to consider if you need a stream, depending on the matchup. James Kaprielian could turn into a solid choice through the year, Dane Dunning may have his best command and carry him through starts, and Nick Martinez could take advantage of his time back in the rotation.
• I like to feature an interesting name at #100 and this week it’s Alex Faedo, who boasts a slider with a 23% SwStr rate. That pitch alone could return against a repeat matchup against the Guardians and appear on many fantasy managers’ radars.

 

• There were a lot of questions about JP Sears in the chat today and I elected not to rank him as it’s a spot start. I generally don’t play guys making their first starts in the majors, and with the expectation of Sears going back to the minors after, I don’t think he’s worth your time.

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Corbin BurnesT1	Aces Gonna Ace	-
2	Gerrit Cole	Aces Gonna Ace	-
3	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
4	Brandon Woodruff T2	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
5	Walker Buehler	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
6	Joe Musgrove	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
7	Carlos Rodón	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	+2
8	Justin Verlander	Aces Gonna Ace	+5
9	Shane McClanahan	Aces Gonna Ace	+2
10	Lucas Giolito	Aces Gonna Ace	-2
11	Alek Manoah	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
12	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace	-2
13	Pablo López T3	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
14	Sandy Alcantara	Ace Potential	+2
15	Zack Wheeler	Ace Potential	+3
16	Chris Bassitt	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
17	Robbie Ray	Ace Potential	-
18	Aaron Nola	Ace Potential	+2
19	Dylan Cease	Ace Potential	+2
20	Frankie Montas	Ace Potential	-1
21	Julio Urías	Ace Potential	+2
22	Zac Gallen	Ace Potential	+2
23	Shane Bieber	Ace Potential	+4
24	Shohei Ohtani	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	+1
25	Logan Webb T4	Ace Potential	+3
26	Luis Severino	Ace Potential	+4
27	Yu Darvish	Ace Potential	+2
28	José Berríos	Ace Potential	+3
29	Luis Castillo	Ace Potential	+3
30	Kyle Wright	Ace Potential	+3
31	Nathan Eovaldi	Ace Potential	+5
32	Eric Lauer T5	Ace Potential	+6
33	Nestor Cortes	Ace Potential	+1
34	Joe Ryan	Ace Potential	+3
35	Patrick Sandoval	Ace Potential	+5
36	Tarik Skubal	Ace Potential	+5
37	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential	-11
38	Sean Manaea	Ace Potential	+1
39	Blake Snell T6	Ace Potential	+7
40	Logan Gilbert	Ace Potential	+5
41	Michael Kopech	Ace Potential	+9
42	Framber Valdez T7	Quality Starts	+14
43	Alex Cobb	Strikeout Upside	-
44	Trevor Rogers	Ace Potential	-9
45	Triston McKenzie	Strikeout Upside	+7
46	Sonny Gray	Strikeout Upside	+7
47	George Kirby	Ace Potential	+4
48	Jordan Montgomery T8	Strikeout Upside	-1
49	Luis Garcia	Strikeout Upside	-1
50	Bailey Ober	Quality Starts	+UR
51	Noah Syndergaard	Quality Starts	-2
52	José Urquidy	Quality Starts	+6
53	Jon Gray	Strikeout Upside	+15
54	Tyler Mahle	Strikeout Upside	-
55	Alex Wood	Strikeout Upside	-13
56	Ian Anderson	Cherry Bomb	+3
57	Miles Mikolas T9	Quality Starts	+3
58	Drew Rasmussen	Toby	+6
59	Jameson Taillon	Toby	+2
60	Marcus Stroman	Quality Starts	+UR
61	Adam Wainwright	Quality Starts	+2
62	MacKenzie Gore T10	Ace Potential	+UR
63	Tony Gonsolin	Strikeout Upside	+6
64	Cristian Javier	Strikeout Upside	+23
65	Hunter Greene	Cherry Bomb	+9
66	Aaron Ashby	Ace Potential	+UR
67	Carlos Carrasco T11	Quality Starts	-5
68	Martín Pérez	Streaming Option	+8
69	Hyun Jin Ryu	Toby	+6
70	Roansy Contreras	Strikeout Upside	+UR
71	Michael Lorenzen	Quality Starts	-5
72	Marco Gonzales	Quality Starts	+6
73	Merrill Kelly	Quality Starts	-16
74	Tyler Anderson T12	Toby	+9
75	Zach Eflin	Quality Starts	+UR
76	Ranger Suárez	Toby	+1
77	Cal Quantrill	Quality Starts	+12
78	Paul Blackburn	Toby	-13
79	Yusei Kikuchi T13	Strikeout Upside	+UR
80	Nick Pivetta	Strikeout Upside	+UR
81	Brady Singer	Quality Starts	+UR
82	Jeffrey Springs	Streaming Option	+UR
83	Garrett Whitlock	Strikeout Upside	-13
84	Kyle Bradish	Strikeout Upside	-17
85	Justin Steele	Streaming Option	+UR
86	Matthew Liberatore	Stash Option	+UR
87	Chad Kuhl T14	Strikeout Upside	-7
88	JT Brubaker	Streaming Option	-2
89	Chase Silseth	Strikeout Upside	-16
90	Reid Detmers	Streaming Option	-11
91	Jordan Hicks	Stash Option	+1
92	Josiah Gray	Cherry Bomb	-4
93	Kyle Gibson T15	Toby	+2
94	Madison Bumgarner	Toby	-4
95	Kyle Hendricks	Cherry Bomb	-14
96	Dane Dunning	Streaming Option	+1
97	James Kaprielian	Toby	+UR
98	Zach Logue	Streaming Option	-13
99	Nick Martinez	Streaming Option	+UR
100	Alex Faedo	Strikeout Upside	+UR

 

Photo by Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)