The List 5/2: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2022 – Week 4

Welcome to the first in-season edition of The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year. It’s the List the site is named after.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 1:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00 am – 11:00 am ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.

For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:

1. This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
2. We have two tables to review before the notes and rankings. First is an injury table that outlines where players would be relatively ranked if fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
3. Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
4. Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. Tier 10 is likely going to underperform those in Tier 11 across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase Tier 10’s ceiling vs. settling for Tier 11’s floor.
5. I’ve made a decision to remove all the labels that I struggle to maintain through the season to instead give each player just one label at a time. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
6. The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.

 

Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots:

 

 

I made a decision this week: I’ve removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.

Now let’s take a look at the pitchers I considered for the Top 100 but didn’t quite make the cut:

 

 

Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, or if you want a primer on most of these pitchers, you can check out my 40,000 words from the pre-season via my Top 224 Starting Pitchers for 2022 from February. Both will help you get a grasp of my general thoughts on most of these guys (especially the roundup!) as I simply can’t detail everything about 100 pitchers in these notes each week.

 

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• Hey. I know you’re bored seeing the same top five on The List each week, but that’s on other guys, not me. But Nick! Kevin Gausman has fanned 41 without issuing a walk! Joe Musgrove is INSANE right now! Yep yep yep. And it hasn’t even been a full month yet. If it sticks, then wonderful.
• I had to move Sandy Alcantara down a touch as his control isn’t quite where it needs to be, especially on the slider. The stuff is insanely good and I think the feel will be there across the next five months.

 

• With a pair of starts under his belt, Lucas Giolito is looking like the workhorse we drafted, pushing me to raise him into the Top 10 starters, above Robbie Ray, who despite a small increase in velocity (sweet!) didn’t have his best command over the weekend.
• We’re a start away from giving a slew of starters the AGA label in the third tier, and with my anticipation of their coronation, Max Fried, Alek Manoah, and Justin Verlander all rose above the likes of Shane Bieber, Logan Webb, and Julio Urías. 

 

• With regards to Shane Bieber, it was a joy to see his curveball regain its spin and become effective again, but the fastball velocity is still severely lacking. It’s not a suggestion that he isn’t good for your fantasy teams, it’s more that he’ll see a bit more trouble consistently that makes him not a Top 10 arm at the moment.
• There isn’t much new about Logan Webb, it’s more that the other arms are flexing the ability to be a “supreme SP #1”, while Webb will likely hover a 25% strikeout rate with a low 3s ERA and lots of innings. It’s far from poor, just not elite elite, you know?

 

• Are you a McClanafan? I sure am because Shane McClanahan has figured out the perfect cocktail of fastballs & secondaries to soar in 2022. There’s still a bit of a fastball problem with its hard-hit rate (30% HC on the four-seamer) but he’s taking the strides we want to see.
• As for Julio Urías, it’s the same for him as it is with Bieber – the decrease in velocity makes him a bit more fragile, but he’s still obviously worth your time.

 

• In Tier 4, we have plenty of arms who could be making it to Tier 3 as soon as next week. Dylan Cease is lighting up the Angels as I type this and hopefully his command continues to excel with his four-seamer and curveball. Pablo López has been all kinds of dominant, doing work to quell my concerns about his lack of repertoire depth. And Clayton Kershaw is the TATIAGA – without a hint of injury risk at the moment, there’s less time now for it to appear than the start of the year.

 

• It was great to see a step in the right direction for Freddy Peralta, and as long as he can throw his curveball and slider in the zone, he’ll be lovely.
• I’m sad Frankie Montas didn’t have his splitter over the weekend, but you have to believe he’ll get right back on the horse and continue plowing through the season productively.

 

• The fifth tier is the tier of misfits – the ones with oh-so-much potential who have taken up our thoughts far too much in April. It’s important for us not to get too emotional about early troubles and believe in their raw ability to carry them through the year, but I’m here to tell you that I understand your strife. Just remember that those in the later tiers can fall off in a heartbeat while these pitchers have higher chances to redeem themselves through adversity.

 

• So that starts with Zack Wheeler. Wheeler came out firing 96 mph last week, but it came back down again to 95 mph in his last start. It was a productive outing, though seeing him get pulled down again is a bit disheartening. He may be destined to live in the 20s through the year, and that’s okay.
• Luis Severino hasn’t touched his ceiling in his last two starts, but I’m a believer in his 96 mph velocity and that the feel for his breakers will return in due time. Don’t lose faith, the ceiling is so dang close.

 

• Oh Charlie Morton. You struggled through the middle of May last year to follow it up with a 3.35 ERA the rest of the way, can you please do the same again this year? Your velocity hasn’t dipped and your curveball is still good – its horizontal movement has dropped about an inch and I’m hoping it’s just an early feel thing.
• It’s not all bad in this tier. I’ve raised Zac Gallen as he cruised through a start against the Dodgers. His fastball command is excellent and with that foundation, all that’s missing are the changeup and/or slider to return to its former state. I believe, Gallen.

 

• Tier 6, now there’s the good stuff. Despite a start where Kyle Wright had his worst command all season, he still rises as he showed he can pitch through the tough days to success. Tylord Megill helped the Mets earn their second no-hitter in franchise history, and Jesús Luzardo simply can’t be stopped.
• It’s great to see Mike Clevinger return to The List as he’s set to make his first start of the season on Tuesday. I’m not exactly sure what we’ll see, but with a pair of outings before next week’s set of rankings, I elected to slot him at #40 – right where I had him in the preseason.

 

• The seventh tier looks rough, but I still adore these pitchers. Eric Lauer just had two double-digit strikeout games as his four-seamer boasts a 22%+ swinging strike rate. It’s glorious, though I do wonder if his whole approach truly speaks to consistency like what those in Tier 6 are hinting at.
• I’m a little worried about Michael Kopech’s new approach with a 94/95 mph heater (not 96+) and questionable secondaries, while Alex Wood got banged up and may not be as stable as the other options – I still adore Alex and his 92/93 mph heater, but I can’t ignore the injury risk + how well everyone else is performing.

 

• Welcome back Alex Cobb to The List, who didn’t have a rehab outing and pitched…like it was a rehab outing. I imagine he’ll bounce back next time out as he still carried his improved velocity in this one.
• It’s sad to watch the struggles of Tyler Mahle, but I imagine with a better schedule ahead and with his strong fastball in his quiver, Mahle will rebound shortly.

 

• I elected to make the ninth tier a “Step above the Tobys before the Tobys” tier, filled with guys who you will depend on through year, plus some fun options. Merrill Kelly and Miles Mikolas squared off against each other this weekend and while Mikolas held more strikeouts, I expect the opposite for the rest of the year. Both can be stable options to rely on for a decent while, but if things turn south, don’t hold for too long.
• I gave a massive boost to Drew Rasmussen as his cutter/slider combo was filthy to say the least. I’m not sure he can go 17 whiffs between them for another start, but it was a clear shift that could be sustainable to some degree. With the Athletics next, I’m picking him up and taking it from there.

 

• What are you doing with Eduardo Rodriguez? He’s had a rough schedule to begin the year and all our off-season thoughts of being in a better situation in Detroit should play out in his favor through the full season. But of course he has to go through the Astros next because it’s just that kind of year. I don’t have any issues with you dropping Rodriguez, but it better be for something that assuredly helps now.
• Marcus Stroman came out of the gate shaky, but he’s recovered since and had his slider on point last time out. He should be a stable play once again.

 

• Tier 10 is the last hurrah for ceiling and is filled with pitchers who could escalate by June, or fall off completely. The MacKenzie Gore situation is confusing to say the least – we expected him to be out of the rotation by now and with Mike Clevinger and Blake Snell returning (Is Snell actually returning this week?), it seems like the most logical move is to move Gore to Triple-A and keep Nick Martinez on as the sixth man. But hey, nothing is confirmed and Gore is looking great with his fastball/slider combo.

 

• We have to talk about Matt Brash. His breakers are ridiculous and he tosses fastballs comfortably over 95 mph, but there’s little command and it makes him the “Chery Bomb” poster child. We’ve seen a lot more of the rugged times as of late, but there is a legit chance Brash makes a small tweak and can become the overwhelming, jaw-dropping arm we know he can be.
• I elected to push newly debuted Kyle Bradish all the way to #65 as a balance to some of the high ceiling plays here. I see Bradish coming with a higher floor, rooted in a solid cutter and three legit secondaries. If he gets a bit more command with those breakers and changeup, I can see him returning a fair amount of strikeouts. For now, I’d pick him up for his start against the Twins and take it from there.

 

• You see some red and it’s easy to understand why. Ranger Suárez isn’t commanding his pitches like last year, Hunter Greene has lost three ticks of velocity, and Reid Detmers has yet to find his slider. All of these can change on a dime, though, so keep your eye out this week.
• I moved up Garrett Whitlock as he’s seemingly taken over Tanner Houck’s rotation spot, while also introducing Chris Paddack back to The List. His four-seamer is being elevated well + he’s tossing curveballs around 20% of the time. I’m not sure if more breakers is a great thing from Paddack, but it seems to be working so far with some easy matchups ahead.

 

• Tier 11 is a mash of worse upside plays and some Tobys we hope can stand out. Carlos Carrasco hit the wall in his Vargas Rule as he’s yet to have an outing where both his changeup and slider were pristine, while I’m not sure I can buy into Josiah Gray’s recent performances. His fastball is too susceptible and the breakers aren’t commanded well, but at least he is getting great pitch separation. We’ll see how he develops.
• We have three new pitchers joining The List in Tier 11. Chad Kuhl is throwing more sliders and gets a start in Arizona. Dane Dunning’s slider was legit as he commanded his entire arsenal incredibly well. And Taijuan Walker sat 94 mph as he made his first start off the IL. I’d anticipate Walker becoming a stable Toby like Cal Quantrill, and stuck them in the same tier.

 

• Oh, right. Nick Martinez. I imagine the Padres will keep him in the rotation as the sixth man, but until we get some clarity there, I think his stuff is good enough to excel against the Marlins this week. Monitor this one.
• Sitting atop the 12th tier is Madison Bumgarner, who boasts a 1.17 ERA through 23 frames thus far. His fastball is sitting 91 mph (not sub 90!) and could provide dividends as he faces the Marlins twice in a row.

 

• Has the magic fully left Adam Wainwright? It’s hard to consider him more than just a streaming option at the moment, but hopefully he can look like his old self soon.
• With Bruce Zimmermann sporting a studly changeup and an improving slider, he could be a strong two-start play this week despite his sketchy fastball.

 

• Tier 13 is your last hope for something more. I actually do think Glenn Otto could be someone to note moving forward, but with tough matchups this week, his time may arrive in the future. I wouldn’t jump at this quite yet.
• Despite doing well this past week, I’m very much not ready to go after Mitch Keller. Until I see some legit success from his secondaires and his four-seamer stops allowing a ton of hard contact, I’m calling this one a trap.

 

• The final tier showcases why I have the guys in Tier 10 ranked so highly – take chances because there are so many options to stream and chase if you’re looking for an arm to attempt six frames of decent ratios. Seriously, Cole Irvin may be the most Toby of Tobys and has earned me streaming victories already this season.
• In fact, there are a fair amount of other pitchers who didn’t make The List this week who easily deserve it. Ross Stripling may work out as he gets two starts, Jake Odorizzi just went six strong for the Astros, Patrick Corbin finally earned some slider whiffs, Ryan Yarbrough is returning from the IL, Daniel Lynch could be turning the corner to provide value in Kansas City, h*ck José Quintana won a Golden Goal. There are options if need them.

 

• As far as the ones I went with here, take your pick. Dakota Hudson has relied on the St. Louis defense and given you a pair of six-inning gems, for example.
• Just be cautious about Jameson Taillon – he has to face the Jays twice in a row and I’d rather avoid that completely. No need to hold through the rough matchups.

 

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Corbin BurnesT1	Aces Gonna Ace	-
2	Gerrit Cole	Aces Gonna Ace	-
3	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace	-
4	Brandon Woodruff T2	Aces Gonna Ace	-
5	Walker Buehler	Aces Gonna Ace	-
6	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace	+3
7	Joe Musgrove	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
8	Sandy Alcantara	Aces Gonna Ace	-2
9	Lucas Giolito	Ace Potential	+3
10	Robbie Ray	Aces Gonna Ace	-3
11	Carlos Rodón T3	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-1
12	Max Fried	Ace Potential	+3
13	Alek Manoah	Ace Potential	+3
14	Justin Verlander	Ace Potential	+3
15	Shane Bieber	Ace Potential	-2
16	Logan Webb	Ace Potential	-5
17	Julio Urías	Ace Potential	-3
18	Shane McClanahan	Ace Potential	+4
19	Frankie Montas T4	Ace Potential	-1
20	Freddy Peralta	Ace Potential	-1
21	Chris Bassitt	Ace Potential	-1
22	Pablo López	Ace Potential	+3
23	Dylan Cease	Ace Potential	+5
24	Aaron Nola	Ace Potential	-
25	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	+2
26	Zack Wheeler T5	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-5
27	Trevor Rogers	Ace Potential	-1
28	Zac Gallen	Ace Potential	+5
29	José Berríos	Ace Potential	-
30	Yu Darvish	Ace Potential	-
31	Luis Severino	Ace Potential	-
32	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential	-9
33	Shohei Ohtani	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-1
34	Nathan Eovaldi T6	Ace Potential	+1
35	Kyle Wright	Ace Potential	+7
36	Logan Gilbert	Ace Potential	-
37	Tylor Megill	Ace Potential	+1
38	Joe Ryan	Ace Potential	+1
39	Jesús Luzardo	Ace Potential	+4
40	Mike Clevinger	Ace Potential	+UR
41	Patrick Sandoval T7	Ace Potential	-7
42	Eric Lauer	Ace Potential	+5
43	Michael Kopech	Ace Potential	-3
44	Sean Manaea	Ace Potential	-3
45	Alex Wood	Strikeout Upside	-8
46	Nestor Cortes T8	Ace Potential	-1
47	Tarik Skubal	Ace Potential	-3
48	Jordan Montgomery	Strikeout Upside	+2
49	Noah Syndergaard	Quality Starts	+2
50	Alex Cobb	Strikeout Upside	+UR
51	Luis Garcia	Strikeout Upside	+UR
52	Tyler Mahle	Ace Potential	-6
53	Triston McKenzie	Strikeout Upside	+2
54	Merrill Kelly T9	Quality Starts	+3
55	Miles Mikolas	Streaming Option	+24
56	Drew Rasmussen	Streaming Option	+30
57	Eduardo Rodriguez	Strikeout Upside	-9
58	Marcus Stroman	Quality Starts	+11
59	Ian Anderson	Ace Potential	+1
60	José Urquidy	Quality Starts	+2
61	Framber Valdez	Quality Starts	-2
62	MacKenzie Gore T10	Ace Potential	+6
63	Matt Brash	Cherry Bomb	-14
64	Cristian Javier	Strikeout Upside	+2
65	Kyle Bradish	Quality Starts	+UR
66	Michael Lorenzen	Quality Starts	+1
67	Ranger Suárez	Quality Starts	-9
68	Hunter Greene	Strikeout Upside	-12
69	Reid Detmers	Ace Potential	-5
70	Chris Paddack	Streaming Option	+UR
71	Garrett Whitlock	Strikeout Upside	+12
72	Carlos Carrasco T11	Quality Starts	-11
73	Cal Quantrill	Quality Starts	+2
74	Josiah Gray	Strikeout Upside	-2
75	Chad Kuhl	Streaming Option	+UR
76	Dane Dunning	Streaming Option	+UR
77	Taijuan Walker	Streaming Option	+UR
78	Nick Martinez	Quality Starts	-7
79	Madison Bumgarner T12	Streaming Option	+14
80	Kyle Hendricks	Quality Starts	-7
81	Bruce Zimmermann	Streaming Option	+3
82	Adam Wainwright	Quality Starts	-12
83	Steven Matz	Quality Starts	-5
84	Paul Blackburn	Streaming Option	+6
85	Tyler Anderson	Streaming Option	+7
86	Marco Gonzales	Streaming Option	-9
87	Germán Márquez T13	Strikeout Upside	-7
88	Tony Gonsolin	Strikeout Upside	-7
89	Glenn Otto	Strikeout Upside	-7
90	Mitch Keller	Strikeout Upside	-2
91	Dylan Bundy	Streaming Option	-6
92	Elieser Hernández	Streaming Option	-5
93	Jordan Hicks	Stash Option	-4
94	Corey Kluber T14	Streaming Option	-3
95	Chris Flexen	Streaming Option	-1
96	Cole Irvin	Streaming Option	-1
97	Dakota Hudson	Streaming Option	-
98	Jameson Taillon	Streaming Option	-22
99	Brad Keller	Streaming Option	-3
100	Zack Greinke	Streaming Option	-1

 

Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)