[pitcher_list list_id=”19750″ season=”2018″ include_stats=”1″]
Welcome to The List – The weekly top 100 rankings of starting pitchers in fantasy baseball for the rest of the season. Use this list to help make choices on the waiver wire and as a tool to gauge trade value in your fantasy leagues. These rankings are made with 5×5 H2H standard 12-team leagues in mind.
Let’s talk about how the SP landscape has changed since last week:
- A pretty clean week in the Top 25 as the major moves were Patrick Corbin dropping a few starts given the velocity scare and Zack Godley taking a small dip as a result of his slow production out of the game. Godley is a prime buy-low in my opinion, though I felt the need to adjust his rank based on what he should cost you.
- Do I believe in Michael Fulmer? Yes I do. Did I feel compelled to acknowledge that guys like Miles Mikolas, Alex Wood, Rick Porcello, and Mike Clevinger deserve more love than him? Sure did.
- Jose Quintana and Chris Archer take expected dives as they have been far from the consistent arms you signed up for as your Sp #2. Meanwhile, Dylan Bundy has put us through the gauntlet and JA Happ is taking a small step back from his hot start, deserving a bit of a drop.
- There are plenty of Spice Girls in play these days, with Fernando Romero and Freddy Peralta both impressing, and Nick Kingham and Jack Flaherty are returning this week, calling for major bumps across the board. These ranks are incredibly fluid and while I am very slightly leaning this way right now, they all bring their positives and negatives to the table that it turns into one large spin of the wheel.
- Is this the repeat of 2016 for Tanner Roark? His induced soft and hard contact is pointing to a sturdy season as a “slightly better Toby”, making him a better play than some Spice Girls for those that need stability over upside.
- Domingo German had a large misstep over the weekend against the A’s and while his -11 mark looks massive, consider the huge field of upside plays, it’s hard to keep him above the others at this present moment. Seriously, this is super fluid right now.
- Jeff Samardzija takes a big hit as he’s struggling to shake off his rust. I can see him rising as we move forward through the season, though we have to temper our pre-season expectations that had baked in expectancy for improvement from last season. Right now, we’re hoping to just get back to that level.
- We’re getting close to the call-up of Alex Reyes as he hints around the area to consider stashes over roster spots. Who knows how exactly that will play out in St. Louis, but he’s one of the better stashes around.
- Sonny Gray is still struggling to find his groove on the hill, Jacob Faria is as shaky as ever, Rich Hill is kinda injured, kinda just a massive headache once again, and I’m concerned that Mike Minor won’t be prepared after his Judgement Day tomorrow.
- Others joining The List this week are Alex Cobb (Improved Splitter!), Zach Eflin (two ticks extra velocity!), and Dan Straily (Possible Toby).
- Leaving The List are Marco Estrada, Danny Duffy, Chris Stratton, Andrew Suarez, and Ivan Nova. They could be back in a hurry, but someone had to get the boot.
- Marcus Stroman hit the DL and was moved to the designated “DL stashes” at the end of The List. Easily a tier below Robbie Ray and Johnny Cueto in value.
Great stuff as usual. Would love some feedback regarding my current SP situation in my 10-team 5X5 Roto league. My priority is to improve my ERA and WHIP. I’m riding Severino and Corbin and sticking with them. Other than that I have 4 SP spots to fill. I have Alex Reyes stashed in DL. I have both Archer and Quintana who are driving me crazy and currently have two streamer spots open. The following pitchers are available:
Tanaka, Richards, Weaver, Price, Fulmer, Roark, E-Rod, Ross, Happ, Pivetta, Soroka, Gibson.
What would you do?
Thanks in advance, man!
An embarrassment of riches!
Rodriguez has the best opportunity in his next 2 matchups (Oakland and Baltimore). Roark, Gibson and Ross (Happ and Pivetta are close behind) have been the most consistent out of this group.
If I had to roster 2 for their next starts, it would probably be Rodriguez and Roark.
Where would you put a healthy Alex Reyes, if forced to?
Reyes is healthy and dominated his first rehab stint (13ks, 5innings, touching 100mph). However, it remains to be seen whether the Cardinals will use him in the bullpen or in the rotation this season and management won’t provide us with a straight answer. You would like to think that because of CMart’s injury that they would give him a chance in the rotation; especially since they are going to be a legitimate playoff contender this season. But, it is much more likely that the Cardinals will limit his usage because he is coming back from missing a whole baseball year and has very limited experience in the Majors.
Scouts compare Reyes to CMart in makeup and arsenal, but Reyes is the more impressive physical specimen:
“Strongly built with wide shoulders and thick, sturdy legs, he averages 97 mph with his fastball and touches triple digits with ease…he got noticeably stronger during his rehab, replacing fat with muscle and improving his eating habits to enhance his general fitness.”
The sky is the limit for Reyes, but don’t be surprised if he doesn’t make a significant fantasy impact this season. But, watch out. Reyes will fly off the draft boards next year (provided he remains healthy).
Short answer: Whenever he makes the rotation, Reyes has all the tools to be a top 20 kind of pitcher.
Hi Nick. Snell jumping +1 spot this week, even with his “injury? Who would you drop for him in h2h 10T Quintana/Castillo/Berrios/Fulmer ?
If you had to drop one of those four pitchers, I think at this moment it would have to be Fulmer.
Quintana is an option too. Velo down, still having some command issues. But personally prefer Snell to all of the listed pitchers.
Hey Nick, thanks for all the work. Do you have an article about your process for this list? Are you just going off gut feel? ROS projections of some kind? A mix of both? Some of the rankings are pretty curious. Like you really think Sean Manaea is going to outperform about the next 20 pitchers when his peripherals are pointing pretty hard to regression? He was a nice early surprise, but a really mediocre profile (lack of Ks, pitch values, injury history, xwOBA, below avg team) seems to make it really tough to buy him as a #2 in fantasy. Anyway, more background about your process would be helpful and a deep dive into Manaea in particular could be cool. Thanks again!
Nick, do you think archer turns it around? He can be this bad, right? Would you try to acquire him on the cheap? Will he be traded? Thanks
Here is a list of SP and RP pitchers I have been offered for Corbin. Which pitchers would you accept a trade for?
Mikolas, Greinke, Darvish, Godley, Lucchesi,
E. Rodriquez, Paxton, Hill, Arrietta, Bauer,
Degrom, Newcomb, Clevinger, C. Martinez, Keuchel,
Archer, Lester, Porcello, Snell, Sale, Strasburg,
Gray, Roark, T. Williams, G. Gonzalez, Berrios,
Teheran, Freeland, Romero
Vizcaino, Davis, Colome, Strickland, Ottavino,
I would jump all over Greinke/Strasburg/Sale/DeGrom.
None of those relievers are even close to worth dealing Corbin with Morrow being the best of that bunch.
Nick I love the insight as always. Curious as to your thoughts on Carlos Martinez?? Im just not seeing anything that would justify a Top 15 ranking. Velo down from last year, contact up, Oswing% pedestrian and Swstr% below league average. Couple all that with injury and I think Id be selling as high as possible…
Faria was cruising until he came out for the 7th, gave up a solo shot and then loaded the bases. He then got to watch as Stanek served up a hanger to Machado for a grand slam from the bench…I think he deserves a little more credit.
What does Tyson Ross need to do to prove to you he’s legit this year? He’s had mostly really good starts supported by the underlying.
Hold onto Yonny Chirinos or pick up Banda?
Hey Nick! Love the site and the podcast. I’m in a 10 team 7×7 categories league. I have Sale, deGrom, Paxton, McCullers, Quintana, Hendricks, Fulmer, Tailion, Faria, Gibson, Bauer, Buehler and Flaherty on my team. My league hoards EVERY pitcher, regardless of value to max starts. I have Eovaldi and Musgrove stashes in my DL. Would you drop anyone on my current roster for either of them? Thanks so much!
Hey Nick, love the aggressive ranking on Snell. He looks like a true breakout (minus his latest blip against the O’s); that BB% looks like it’s coming way down.
On another note, what’s your take on Samardzija? Got him as a throw in in a trade (Shark/Degrom for Buehler/Lucchesi in a redraft), and I’m wondering if he’s worth the headache of a hold. GB% way down, FB% up, velocity down, BB/9 below 2 last year, above 6 this year. What gives?
How is Caleb smith better than Jon Gray???
Traded Marcell Ozuna for Sean Manaea. Thoughts?
NP — love what you are doing w/ the PL site, but half the time when I click on a SP from your list–no info shows up. What’s w/ that?
If you were in a league, you would trade Nick Pivetta for Kyle Gibson straight up?
Definitely not. I want Pivetta.