The List 5/1: Top 100 Starting Pitchers – Week 5 Fantasy Baseball 2023

Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 1:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.

For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:

1. This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
2. We have two tables to review before the notes and rankings. First is an injury table that outlines where players would be relatively ranked if fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
3. If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
4. Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
5. Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. Tier 10 is likely going to underperform those in Tier 11 across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase Tier 10’s ceiling vs. settling for Tier 11’s floor.
6. I’ve made a decision to limit labels to just one label per player, with few exceptions for a second. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
7. The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.

 

Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots:

I made a decision last year: I removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.

Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” It’s difficult to update this week-to-week and I apologize if the ranking is different when the player actually returns from the IL. I hope it helps!

One last point about that – often times pitchers need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.

Now let’s take a look at the pitchers I considered for the Top 100 but didn’t quite make the cut:

 

 

I added something new to The List this season. It’s a small table of the prospects I’m personally excited about who would jump up The List quickly if they were confirmed in the rotation. Please don’t read too much into these, there are far better prospect analysts out there than me. Still, I think this table will help you quickly stay on top of who should be on your radar.

They are ordered by my general preference/focus on those guys right now. If any of these are called up, they should be added to your 12-teamers ASAP. Some guys aren’t here (Luis Ortiz, DL Hall, for example), and that’s due to my own belief they aren’t as pressing as the ones below. I could be very wrong there.

Colors: Green = Most excited about. Yellow = Solid but not as urgent. Orange = Will likely take some time.

 

Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, as each week’s update will reflect the comments and findings from those daily articles. If you’re unfamiliar with some of the players listed, I highly recommend that you read my 45,000+ Top 300 Starting Pitchers from February. Many things will have changed, but the root of my perception of these players is outlined there.

Let’s get to it.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• I know there are going to be a ton of comments about how can you have so many changes in the first two weeks?! or I hate how much these rankings change each week and I’m going to get out ahead of them here.
• These rankings mostly change in the back half of The List as that’s your waiver wire. Those aren’t the players you hold onto throughout the year like your SPs 1-4, which means we’re going to be a bit more chaotic and roll with the waves more aggressively. If I see elements that suggest a pitcher could be a Top 40 arm, I’m going to move up a ton from the 80s to the 60s. Shazam, there we go.

 

• As is tradition, I need to tell you about the guys who were removed and added from the Top 60, so you have context for the ranking shifts.
• Added: Justin Verlander (15), Gavin Stone (53), Bryce Miller (62)
• Removed: Jacob deGrom (6), Garrett Whitlock (54), Kenta Maeda (57), Tyler Mahle (62) 
• Net Gain Inside Top 62: (+1)

 

• The top tier hasn’t changed save for the removal of Jacob deGrom and the re-inclusion of Corbin Burnes. But Nick! Spencer Strider just struggled against the Mets! And yet, we still love him. Doesn’t change a thing, it happens.
• Tier two is a long one once again and I did make some changes. Max Fried jumps up five because hot dang is that man consistent. He deserves all the love.

 

• I also put some respect to the name TATIAGA as Clayton Kershaw is our featured pitcher with a +10 jump this week. Yes, we don’t expect more than 130 frames, but the fella is pitching like he’s back in his prime. It’s everything you want to see.
• Returning to The List is Justin Verlander and despite having him ranked in the Top 10 prior and “1-10” in my notes, I elected to slot him in at #14. We don’t know how he’ll respond to missing as much time as he has – is he still the same guy?

 

• It’s another ridiculous stretch for Zac Gallen, but this list is forward-thinking where we don’t get rewarded for 28 scoreless innings. I love Gallen (y’all know that) but he doesn’t carry the same skill set as those above him.
• Aaron Nola and Cristian Javier fell below Gallen, though, and rightfully so. Nola hasn’t wielded the same curveball we’ve seen in previous years while Javier’s breaking ball command has been awfully finicky. I expect both to figure it out, but they belong below those who are locked in.

 

• In tier 3, I did the unthinkable. I removed the AGA tags from Dylan Cease, Julio Urías, Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove. I’m not judging Musgrove and Darvish harshly for a series in Mexico City, but I think we can all agree they aren’t performing at the same level as the Top 16 arms and need to prove their dominance once again.
• Joe Ryan keeps rising as his four-seamer has carried him through the 2023 season. I want to see a little more from his slider and splitter before I give him the AGA tag, but so far so good.

 

• You may want me to have given more love to Sonny Gray for his ridiculous start to the season. We’ve seen a history of volatility from Gray and I’m not sold that his curveball/cutter/slider will maintain their excellence. Still, I’ll keep raising him as long as he keeps it up.
• I would love to grant Freddy Peralta the AGA label, but a start against the Tigers isn’t enough for me to move him up quite yet. With due time, y’all.

 

• The fourth tier is a small one – it’s a grouping of guys who I don’t believe are on the verge of an AGA tag, but I’m also not worried about their production moving forward. George Kirby just had a fantastic eight-inning game, though I think his lack of overpowering secondary offering holds him back from an AGA tag.
• Meanwhile, the Reds duo of Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo will rack up a ton of strikeouts while the ratios should be fine – not stellar, but fine.

 

• Then there’s Shane Bieber, who I think we need to accept will not be a 25-30% strikeout rate arm any longer. I’m also concerned that his slider has been far worse across his last few starts, leaving a bit of a skeleton crew to get through outings.
• The fifth tier is where things start to get messy. The opening quarter of Nestor Cortes, Drew Rasmussen, Logan Gilbert, and Logan Webb inherently feel like Top 30 guys, but I’m not confident any are ready to soar at the moment. I’m in this state of purgatory hoping they lean in the right direction in future starts.

 

• I stuck Nathan Eovaldi in the middle of the tier as the stabilizer. He’s not a potential Top 20 guy, but he should be rostered as a solid Win chance, good ratios, and handful of strikeouts. Gotta love the fact he’s sitting 97 mph once again.
• Under Eovaldi is all the fun stuff. Hunter Brown is killing it with his sub 30% fastball approach, Lance Lynn was far better in his last start and like Charlie Morton is trending in the right direction, and Jordan Montgomery + Chris Bassitt close out the tier as another pair of trustworthy arms who should help consistently throughout the season.

 

• By the way, we’re having a Pitcher List NYC meetup May 6th at 4pm ET @ The Commisioner! Come by this Saturday and hang out with PL staffers and the community as we talk about baseball.

 

• No, I didn’t ignore Justin Steele. On the surface, there’s a lot to love about his 2023 season – he’s boasting a 1.49 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and the 5th best hard contact rate in the majors at a sparkling 16% clip – though I’m still a little skeptical about his approach. I have a rule for two-pitch pitchers: both pitches have to be elite. With Steele, the slider and fastball command has been a little shaky and watching his games, I’m not seeing a debilitating arm deconstructing batters like a surgeon. That said, he has a history of mitigating hard contact and that should make him a solid play, but in the end, he could be just a Holly instead of a league-winning arm.

 

• Moving to the sixth tier, we have a crew of exciting young arms mixed with older high-upside under-performers. Reid Detmers takes a hit as he hasn’t quite put everything together, though his slider is still getting whiffs and he’s improved his ability to elevate his four-seamers. I believe in the talent moving forward.
• The number of questions regarding “which prospect do you like more” can be answered quickly – pick your favorite. Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, Mason Miller, Taj Bradley, Brandon Pfaadt, Louie Varland, Bryce Miller, Gavin Stone, Grayson Rodriguez…Yeah, there are so many and all of them can be incredible for your fantasy teams. It’s far too early to tell who is going to stick and become dominant vs. who is going to fizzle out and the secret is to throw as many darts as you possibly can over the next week or two.

 

• All of that said, with Tanner Bibee vs. Logan Allen, I prefer Bibee long term as he has a deeper repertoire. However, I wonder if the Guardians trust Allen more in the short term, meaning he sticks around when a roster crunch occurs.
• Despite a shaky (and unfortunate) first inning last week for Mason Miller, I still adore his heater/cutter and hope he can find strikes with his slider. The ceiling here is immense and I want to snatch him up everywhere.

 

• With Grayson Rodriguez, I’m a little concerned that he hasn’t come into a proper groove with his arsenal yet. There will be a time when he’s spotting four-seamers up and going changeups + sliders for strikes and whiffs below the zone, but I’ve yet to see a start where it’s come together in full. I can’t help but wonder if this is going to take more time than I anticipated it would (his latest start was against the Tigers and he didn’t have his best slider or fastball there).

 

• At the end of the tier is Luis Garcia, who changed his pitch mix to go 20% fastballs and I LOVE IT. I hope this sticks around and isn’t a short-term shift.
• Andrew Heaney isn’t turning to the slider as much as we’re used to and while things haven’t been shaky thus far, I’m not sold he’s removed himself from his Cherry Bomb ways quite yet.

 

• It’s unfair to give Lucas Giolito a ten-point fall after enduring a pair of starts against the Rays (and one where he succeeded!) but here we are as I felt the need to raise a lot of arms above him. I’m also a bit spooked by a one-tick drop in velocity and a massive reduction to his changeup – the pitch for Giolito since his breakout. He’s not quite there yet and I’m not sure when he will be.
• Lastly, Chris Sale is still a mystery to me. On one hand, he clearly endured a ton of bad luck earlier in the year and was able to avoid it over the weekend. On the other, his changeup wasn’t very good and he had a start against the Orioles where he had two total whiffs. I believe there will be more good than bad, but he still weirds me out.

 

• Like a sitcom lasting six years, Tier 7 is filled with “will they, won’t they” arms. It’s a matter of time before Blake Snell finds his breakers again, while Alek Manoah is still a bit lost on the bump. I have faith for the long haul, but boy is it tough rostering them at the moment.
• I’m excited to see Gavin Stone getting the call this week. He’s a changeup-focused arm who has dealt with the PCL and I’m not exactly sure what to make of him. Pick him up now and let’s see what happens.

 

• By the rules of The List, I’m not allowed to add Louie Varland or Brandon Pfaadt since they are not confirmed to get the call this week. However, if they both were starting this week, they would be slotted inside this tier. I prefer Pfaadt with his excellent heater and slider, while Varland’s extra velocity and great arm slot make him an intriguing upside play. Pfaadt > Stone > Varland in my view, but then again, who knows. PROSPECTS Y’ALL.
• I’m starting to get weary of Dustin May as I outlined in the SP Roundup. Is he actually going to take the next step or is he going to be a PEAS for the entirety of 2023?

 

• I gave Kyle Wright a sizeable jump, but it was more of a restructuring of The List. That said, seeing him go 50% curveballs in his rain-shortened start was a very cool thing. Please do more of that, Wright, it’s far and away your best pitch.
• And hey, Marcus Stroman is solid but not at the level of Jordan Montgomery or Nathan Eovaldi. Good stuff, Stroman.

 

• Tier 8 is the cliff – the part where we heavily shift to more risks and where prospect pitchers appear, like Bryce Miller. I know there’s a decent amount of hype around Miller, what I do know is he carries a massive heater, questionable command, and was poor for his first three Double-A starts before surviving in his last one before getting the call for this week. Pick him up and let’s see how he performs.
• Jack Flaherty maintained his 93/94 velocity with a secondary pitch generating whiffs, Graham Ashcraft still makes me uneasy with his failure to earn strikeouts, and Drew Smyly is executing the BSB as well as you could hope for.

 

• It’s been lovely watching Eduardo Rodriguez reward daring managers this season, though I wouldn’t classify his arsenal as exceptional. He’s a good Quality Start play, but he may be someone we ultimately move on from later this season.
• I watched Josiah Gray pitch against the Pirates and I was heavily impressed by his overall command. He kept breakers down while sticking fastballs arm-side and if he’s able to maintain it, Josiah will continue moving up The List. Let’s hope he does.

 

• Tier 9 is a mini tier of solid-but-not-exceptional arms who could help those looking for some stability. Bailey Ober needs to improve his secondaries if he’s going to get out of this tier, while Alex Cobb didn’t throw a single slider over the weekend, making me concerned he’s going to just be a Cherry Bomb this year instead of evolving into something more.
• Patrick Sandoval will likely still have highs-and-lows unless he goes on a long stretch nailing his changeups and sliders, while Zach Eflin gets the job done with his curve and sinker.

 

• Tier 10 has a bunch of intriguing names I’m sure you see on the wire and wonder if you actually commit to them. MacKenzie Gore is looking much better as of late, though there is still another layer of polish missing that I hope we see in the upcoming weeks.
• We’ve been hoping for a Hayden Wesneski breakout for some time and with two starts against the Nationals + Marlins, now may be the time to jump in.

 

• I really didn’t like what I saw from Tony Gonsolin in his return from the IL. He was 1/2 ticks down on his heater, his splitter didn’t get strikes, and he’s limited heavily with his pitch count. I’d rather chase something else as we already suspected regression from last year’s .207 BABIP and sparkling ratios.
• Kodai Senga has displayed what he produces when he doesn’t have his Ghost Fork and it’s not pretty, making him a Cherry Bomb. I can’t say I endorse rostering too many of them.

 

• I’m liking the approaches of both Griffin Canning and Vince Velasquez at the moment. Canning is going 25% fastballs while Velasquez has turned to his slider 50% of the time. Keep your eyes on them.
• I’ve lamented a ton about my lack of understanding of Mitch Keller’s success, but I would have raised him further if it weren’t for a rough schedule ahead for the Pirates.

 

• With Sean Manaea back into the rotation following Alex Wood’s injury + a decent schedule ahead, it may be time to consider Manaea on your teams. He is still sporting 94+ mph velocity, after all.
• I gave a drop to Seth Lugo as he’s struggling to find a rhythm inside his arsenal. The opportunity is still very much there – high pitch counts + a winning ballclub – but you’re okay searching for something else in the meantime.

 

• Tier 11 is the streaming/Toby tier where I’m acknowledging Tyler Wells, Merrill Kelly, and Martín Pérez during their solid stretches. I also gave a nod to Tyler Anderson as he earned a Gallows Pole via his changeup acting as good as we’ve ever seen it.
• Simply put, I’m not impressed with what Jon Gray brings to the table. His fastball isn’t all that great and the slider is a strong pitch, just not an electric pitch that makes me overlook the non-elite heater.

 

• What are you doing with Brady Singer? I think he’s the same guy he was in 2021 and 2022 – a Cherry Bomb who will go on some good and some terrible stretches. Roto league managers can hold on to for the ride, while H2H managers may want to have more consistency in their lives.
• It’s the same reason I have José Berríos still outside the Top 80 despite a few strong outings. He’s not doing anything different to suggest that you can depend on success moving forward, ensuring he maintains his title of “The Great Undulator”.

 

• The rest of Tier 12 is shaky. JP Sears has a fun fastball and slider, but we’ve yet to see him truly put it all together. Johan Oviedo has command issues he still needs to iron out, Yusei Kikuchi isn’t doing anything dramatically different to make me believe he’s removed from his volatile self, and despite the higher strikeout totals for Domingo Germán, it’s still a large risk sending him out there every five days.
• I’m happy to see Brayan Bello return to the majors, but it’s best to watch from afar as we wait for the slider and changeup to develop into the pitches we want them to be.

 

• I really hope those in the final tier can be their best selves. Steven Matz is far better than the results will tell you, Wade Miley could turn into a Vargas Rule, there’s a world where Kyle Bradish cruises with his slider and curveball, and maybe Michael Kopech’s 97 mph is here to stay as he pairs it with a filthy slider.
• I’m sorry Matthew Boyd, I’m not going to roster you again until you’re getting a hefty number of slider whiffs once again. A 92 mph fastball and a solid changeup isn’t enough.
• At the end of the tier are José Suarez and Marco Gonzales. Suarez may have figured something out with his changeup to help stave off right-handers, while I love seeing Marco Gonzales feature beautiful pitch separation across his last few outings. If only he weren’t facing the Astros next.

 

SCROLL BACK UP AND READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Gerrit ColeT1	Aces Gonna Ace	-
2	Shane McClanahan	Aces Gonna Ace	-
3	Spencer Strider	Aces Gonna Ace	-
4	Shohei Ohtani	Aces Gonna Ace Playing Time Question	-
5	Luis Castillo	Aces Gonna Ace	-
6	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
7	Sandy Alcantara T2	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
8	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
9	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace	+5
10	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
11	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
12	Zac Gallen	Aces Gonna Ace	+4
13	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	+10
14	Justin Verlander	Aces Gonna Ace	+UR
15	Aaron Nola	Aces Gonna Ace	-5
16	Cristian Javier	Aces Gonna Ace	-3
17	Dylan Cease T3	Ace Potential	-2
18	Joe Ryan	Ace Potential	+3
19	Julio Urías	Ace Potential	-2
20	Yu Darvish	Ace Potential	-2
21	Joe Musgrove	Ace Potential	-2
22	Framber Valdez	Ace Potential	-2
23	Pablo López	Ace Potential	-1
24	Freddy Peralta	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+1
25	Sonny Gray	Strikeout Upside	+4
26	Jesús Luzardo	Ace Potential	-2
27	George Kirby T4	Ace Potential	+3
28	Shane Bieber	Ace Potential	-2
29	Hunter Greene	Ace Potential	+2
30	Nick Lodolo	Ace Potential	+6
31	Nestor Cortes T5	Ace Potential	-4
32	Drew Rasmussen	Ace Potential	-4
33	Logan Gilbert	Ace Potential	-
34	Logan Webb	Ace Potential	-
35	Nathan Eovaldi	Quality Starts	+6
36	Hunter Brown	Ace Potential Playing Time Question	+13
37	Lance Lynn	Ace Potential	+7
38	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential	+7
39	Justin Steele	Ace Potential	+11
40	Jordan Montgomery	Quality Starts	-
41	Chris Bassitt	Ace Potential	-4
42	Reid Detmers T6	Ace Potential	-10
43	Tanner Bibee	Ace Potential	+9
44	Logan Allen	Ace Potential	+7
45	Grayson Rodriguez	Ace Potential	-6
46	Mason Miller	Ace Potential	-3
47	Andrew Heaney	Strikeout Upside	-5
48	Lucas Giolito	Ace Potential	-10
49	Chris Sale	Ace Potential	-2
50	Luis Garcia	Strikeout Upside	+11
51	Blake Snell T7	Ace Potential	-5
52	Alek Manoah	Ace Potential	-17
53	Gavin Stone	Cherry Bomb	+UR
54	Marcus Stroman	Quality Starts	+1
55	Dustin May	Cherry Bomb	-7
56	Kyle Wright	Ace Potential	+12
57	Eduardo Rodriguez T8	Quality Starts	+2
58	Jack Flaherty	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-
59	Graham Ashcraft	Ratio Focused	+1
60		Cherry Bomb	+11
61	Josiah Gray	Cherry Bomb	+31
62	Bryce Miller	Cherry Bomb	+UR
63	Bailey Ober T9	Strikeout Upside	+UR
64	Patrick Sandoval	Cherry Bomb	+2
65	Zach Eflin	Quality Starts	+2
66	Alex Cobb	Cherry Bomb	-10
67	MacKenzie Gore T10	Cherry Bomb	+8
68	Hayden Wesneski	Strikeout Upside	+4
69	Tony Gonsolin	Ace Potential	-16
70	Kodai Senga	Cherry Bomb	-6
71	Griffin Canning	Streaming Option	+6
72	Vince Velasquez	Strikeout Upside	+1
73	Mitch Keller	Cherry Bomb	+5
74	Sean Manaea	Cherry Bomb	+UR
75	Edward Cabrera	Cherry Bomb	+9
76	Seth Lugo	Cherry Bomb	-11
77	Tyler Wells T11	Streaming Option	+5
78	Jon Gray	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-8
79	Martín Pérez	Toby	+17
80	Merrill Kelly	Toby	+18
81	Tyler Anderson	Toby	+16
82	Brady Singer	Cherry Bomb	-19
83	Bryce Elder	Streaming Option	-4
84	T12	Streaming Option	-4
85	Johan Oviedo	Cherry Bomb	-9
86	Yusei Kikuchi	Cherry Bomb	+9
87	Domingo Germán	Cherry Bomb	-
88	José Berríos	Cherry Bomb	-3
89	Kyle Gibson	Toby	-6
90	Anthony DeSclafani	Quality Starts	-1
91	Brayan Bello	Cherry Bomb	+UR
92	Steven Matz T13	Ratio Focused	-23
93	Wade Miley	Streaming Option	-2
94	Kyle Bradish	Cherry Bomb	-13
95	Ryne Nelson	Streaming Option	-2
96	Michael Kopech	Cherry Bomb	-2
97	Matthew Boyd	Strikeout Upside	-23
98	José Suarez	Streaming Option	+UR
99	Tylor Megill	Streaming Option	-9
100	Marco Gonzales	Streaming Option	+UR

 

Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)