We’ve begun the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball.
Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!
As always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.
Ranking Notes
- This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
- Seriously. Read the notes.
- Once again, there were some significant removals that cause shifts to the rankings in the second half – specifically Sixto Sanchez, Tony Gonsolin, and Elieser Hernandez.
- I also removed David Price, Garrett Richards, Daulton Jefferies, and Chris Archer. Shouldn’t be much of surprise to anyone seeing those name removed as they shouldn’t be rostered in 12-teamers at the moment.
- So I’m not changing anything inside the Top 18 and really just one thing in the Top 26. Corbin Burnes gets a rise given he clearly has the command of last year intact and the innings difference between him and the other arms around him doesn’t make up for the step-up in quality.
- Meanwhile, I so badly want to raise Tyler Glasnow with his new slider, but I just can’t after one start of its existence. It is really pretty, though.
- I elected to raise Jose Berrios, Sandy Alcantara, and Lance McCullers a touch as each of them showcased improved ability. Berrios is throwing even harder than 2020’s velocity bump, McCullers is featuring a new – and deadly – slider, and Alcantara already had both his slider and changeup working on opening day.
- They all remain behind Strasburg and Corbin as they simply haven’t given me anything to gauge from them yet. It’s hard making changes after just four days of games!
- The main story in Tier 6 is the fall of Chris Paddack. We were already uneasy about his performances in spring training and his outing against Arizona was more of the same disappointment. His fastball simply isn’t what it was in 2019 at the moment and that’s a problem. Still inside the Top 40, mind you, but I prefer others instead, now.
- Speaking of which, many inside this tier had their first outing and showed us why we wanted them in drafts. Joe Musgrove and Tyler Mahle each quelled some of my fears, though. Musgrove was able to dominate with his slider as he did in September and move away from a heavy dose of heaters, while Mahle was trusted to go over 80 pitches in his first outing. Both could be legit arms for your teams through the full year.
- Tier 7 isn’t very interesting, but I made it smaller as Tier 8 is a bit riskier. Frankie Montas is here without a start as I don’t think I’ll have the same confidence in him as others in Tier 6.
- John Means didn’t get a major bump as his fastball velocity was back to 2019 levels. I can imagine it gets back up through the year, though, and it was fantastic seeing his changeup work like the ole days.
- After casting plenty doubt that Zach Eflin would be able to bring over his curveball to 2021, he tossed it 19% of the time and it worked wonderfully. I’m still skeptical that it can be a regular feature through the season, but this is a great start. And hey, it gets questionable very quickly in the back half of starters, so welcome to the Top 50, even if just barely.
- I considered lowering Shohei Ohtani after his volatility Sunday night and his lack of adjustment is more of a product of the landscape than of his ability. There just weren’t guys to place above him.
- Tier 9 has only one major adjustment – the addition of Dustin May. With Gonsolin and Price out of the picture, May has fallen comfortably into the 5th rotation without the caveats of “how long will he go?” and “how long will it last?” Both questions seem to have satisfying answers at the moment, making him a somewhat secure option…for the short term. I still question if he has a whiff pitch and, hey, maybe they do cut his starts shorter in favor of Price, but May deserves the love.
- Ryan Yarbrough is a bit underrated, too, and with the Rays lacking depth in their rotation, expect him to go at least 80 pitches regularly moving forward with a solid WHIP.
- Tier 10 features a pair of Twins near the top, with Michael Pineda and J.A. Happ. Each has a solid schedule and a repertoire that should allow them to take advantage. Easy end-of-rotation fill-ins until you find that guy later in the year.
- I also gave significant boosts to Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Bassitt. Kikuchi pitched admirably against the Giants, but I can’t help but worry that his 2020 inconsistencies will crop up again + he has a tough schedule. Still, Tier 11 is dicey and Kikuchi’s skillset awards him the Top 65 spot.
- As for Bassitt, he’s already one start down with a poor matchup, with one to go. I think he should help overall in 12-teamers through the year, and as it gets easier for him, he deserves the bump.
- I did lower Carlos Martinez into this tier, simply because there’s a touch more volatility than those in Tier 9. I still think he pitched a little better than the 4 ER stat line will tell you.
- Tier 11 is filled with fun arms who haven’t quite made it yet. Freddy Peralta came in to relieve in Game 1 of the season and displayed the wonky control that makes us terrified. Here’s to hoping that disappears when he starts.
- I’ve also added Tanner Houck to this tier as he surprisingly got the call against the Orioles and flat out dominated with his slider. I have some reservations about the rest of his repertoire, but he gets a repeat matchup against the O’s and it could be the start of a productive April that will force his attendance even when Eduardo Rodriguez returns.
- Houck’s teammate Nathan Eovaldi fell to Tier 12, though, as his schedule is a rugged one across the next three weeks. You can drop him in 12-teamers.
- It wasn’t Brady Singer’s day against the Rangers and now his schedule is rougher than we’d like. I was hoping last week to see a performance that would grant some confidence despite the gauntlet ahead, but sadly we got the opposite.
- There are a ton of names in Tier 13 and for the most part, they are here because they have a decent schedule or could be a serviceable Toby if things align. Griffin Canning is oddly the opposite – a Cherry Bomb and I have low expectations that he can perform well early. I hope to be wrong there.
- Plenty of new names here to replace all the clear removals. Bruce Zimmermann showcased the BSB and could be a Vargas Rule.
- Wade Miley has a gorgeous schedule and could be a sneaky innings eater for your teams.
- Dylan Cease didn’t perform well on Sunday, but maybe his command corrects itself in the near future. JT Brubaker has the tools to be a Toby but we haven’t seen him yet this year.
- Adrian Morejon has a rotation spot in San Diego and I won’t rule out that his splitter can show up to make him valuable.
- Finally, there’s Logan Allen who I don’t believe will get plenty of innings early in the year, but he could earn the fifth spot and display growth after getting traded to Cleveland in 2019.
- Lastly, there’s Tier 14, with a few arms that could be considered a decent streamer at times. Nothing much to write home about with Joey Lucchesi, Adam Wainwright, and Martin Perez.
- Finally, with the final slot I could have put Taylor Widener, but I wasn’t too impressed with his fastball command and he has a rough schedule. Instead, why not bring back an old “friend” in Nick Pivetta. I don’t really believe it, but hey, who knows.
Pitcher | Reason |
---|---|
Zac Gallen | IL with hairline fracture. Top 15 SP |
Carlos Carrasco | IL with hamstring injury. Top 20 SP |
Sonny Gray | IL with back injury. Top 25 SP |
Dinelson Lamet | IL with elbow injury. Top 25 SP |
Mike Soroka | IL with torn achilles. Top 30 SP |
Sixto Sanchez | Demoted + IL with shoulder injury. Top 40 SP |
Chris Sale | IL from TJS. Top 10 SP |
Noah Syndergaard | IL from TJS. Top 15 SP |
Luis Severino | IL from TJS. Top 15 SP |
Framber Valdez | IL with finger injury. Top 50 SP |
Michael Lorenzen | IL with shoulder injury. Top 80 SP |
Elieser Hernandez | Biceps Tendon injury. Top 80 SP |
Tony Gonsolin | IL with shoulder inflammation. Top 80 SP |
Eduardo Rodriguez | Il with dead arm. Top 80 SP |
Spencer Turnbull | COVID IL. Top 80 SP |
Robbie Ray | Out with hurt elbow. Interesting flier, still risky |
Jake Odorizzi | Likely missing two starts. Top 70 |
A.J. Puk | Likely does not have a rotation spot. Would be Top 80 |
David Price | Pitching in relief + ineffective |
Garrett Richards | Struggled vs. Orioles, can’t trust him now |
Chris Archer | Pitched in relief, was sub 92 mph |
Daulton Jefferies | Cole Irvin has the spot |
Caleb Smith | Sat sub 91 mph + tough schedule |
Madison Bumgarner | Tough schedule + not at 91 mph |
Tejay Antone | Injury means he’s currently out of the rotation |
Josh Lindblom | Does not have a rotation spot |
Alec Mills | Does not have a rotation spot |
Rich Hill | Tough first start + questionable ability |
Jose Quintana | Good schedule, not sure he’s good enough |
Randy Dobnak | Does not have a rotation spot |
All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:
Rank | Pitcher | Badges | Change |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Jacob deGromT1 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
2 | Shane Bieber | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
3 | Gerrit Cole | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
4 | Yu DarvishT2 | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
5 | Lucas Giolito | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
6 | Aaron Nola | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
7 | Walker Buehler | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
8 | Max Scherzer | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
9 | Trevor Bauer | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb | - |
10 | Clayton Kershaw | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
11 | Kenta MaedaT3 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
12 | Luis Castillo | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
13 | Jack Flaherty | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
14 | Brandon Woodruff | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
15 | Blake SnellT4 | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | - |
16 | Lance Lynn | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
17 | Tyler Glasnow | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips | - |
18 | Zack Wheeler | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
19 | Corbin Burnes | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | +4 |
20 | Hyun Jin Ryu | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | -1 |
21 | Max Fried | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -1 |
22 | Kyle Hendricks | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts Ratio Focused | -1 |
23 | Zach Plesac | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -1 |
24 | Stephen StrasburgT5 | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
25 | Charlie Morton | Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts | - |
26 | Patrick Corbin | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
27 | José Berríos | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +2 |
28 | Sandy Alcantara | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +2 |
29 | Lance McCullers Jr. | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips | +2 |
30 | Zack Greinke | Ace Potential Quality Starts | -2 |
31 | Jesús LuzardoT6 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +2 |
32 | Pablo López | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +2 |
33 | Julio Urías | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +2 |
34 | Joe Musgrove | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +7 |
35 | Tyler Mahle | Strikeout Upside | +8 |
36 | Aaron Civale | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | - |
37 | Ian Anderson | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Ratio Focused | +2 |
38 | Dylan Bundy | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +4 |
39 | Chris Paddack | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -12 |
40 | Corey Kluber | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -3 |
41 | Jameson Taillon | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -3 |
42 | Frankie MontasT7 | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -2 |
43 | John Means | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +2 |
44 | José Urquidy | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips | - |
45 | Kevin Gausman | Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +1 |
46 | Marcus Stroman | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +1 |
47 | Shohei OhtaniT8 | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +1 |
48 | James Paxton | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | +1 |
49 | Jordan Montgomery | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option | +1 |
50 | Zach Eflin | Ace Potential Quality Starts Toby Streaming Option | +13 |
51 | Triston McKenzie | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | - |
52 | Domingo Germán | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | - |
53 | Dallas KeuchelT9 | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused | - |
54 | Marco Gonzales | Quality Starts Toby | - |
55 | Zach Davies | Quality Starts Toby | - |
56 | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | - | |
57 | Mike Minor | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused | - |
58 | Dustin May | Low Ips Ratio Focused | +34 |
59 | Ryan Yarbrough | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | - |
60 | Michael PinedaT10 | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +12 |
61 | Carlos Martínez | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -3 |
62 | J.A. Happ | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +11 |
63 | Yusei Kikuchi | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +18 |
64 | Trevor Rogers | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +7 |
65 | Chris Bassitt | Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused | +19 |
66 | Logan WebbT11 | Strikeout Upside Streaming Option | -6 |
67 | Freddy Peralta | Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | -6 |
68 | Matthew Boyd | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -4 |
69 | Mitch Keller | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -4 |
70 | Tarik Skubal | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -4 |
71 | Carlos Rodón | Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +4 |
72 | Tanner Houck | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +UR |
73 | Germán Márquez | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -5 |
74 | Adbert AlzolayT12 | Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | -4 |
75 | Justin Dunn | Strikeout Upside Streaming Option | +7 |
76 | Andrew Heaney | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +3 |
77 | Taijuan Walker | Quality Starts Toby Streaming Option | - |
78 | Nathan Eovaldi | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -4 |
79 | Sean Manaea | Injury Risk Ratio Focused | +1 |
80 | Dane Dunning | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +7 |
81 | Daniel Ponce de Leon | Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +9 |
82 | Brady Singer | Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option | -15 |
83 | Brad Keller | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | -5 |
84 | Jake ArrietaT13 | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +9 |
85 | Matt Shoemaker | Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +10 |
86 | Griffin Canning | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +2 |
87 | Mike Foltynewicz | Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +7 |
88 | Bruce Zimmermann | Streaming Option | +UR |
89 | Wade Miley | Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +UR |
90 | Dylan Cease | Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | +UR |
91 | Cristian Javier | Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | -2 |
92 | JT Brubaker | Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +UR |
93 | Casey Mize | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -2 |
94 | Adrian Morejon | Streaming Option | +UR |
95 | Logan Allen | Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +UR |
96 | David Peterson | Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +2 |
97 | Joey LucchesiT14 | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +2 |
98 | Adam Wainwright | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | -1 |
99 | Martín Pérez | Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +1 |
100 | Nick Pivetta | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +UR |
Labels Legend
Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)
I see Kikuchi listed as Ace Potential and Toby… that seems almost contradictory. Could the last start been seen as a step in the Ace direction with the 40% CSW?
Surprised Domingo German didn’t drop a bit. Better days ahead when he’s not facing the Jays?
Great stuff as always! How you would rank some of the guys who don’t currently have rotation spots or are in the minors? I lean towards stashing someone with better potential than lots of the guys in tiers 12-14. I’m looking at guys like Price, Dobnak, Lindblom, Antone, Whitley, Jefferies, etc.
How is Triston McKenzie still on this list? Francona already said they’re skipping him, and it remains to be see if he’s a traditional part of the rotation.