The List 4/25: Top 100 Starting Pitchers – Week 4 Fantasy Baseball 2023

Thanks to everyone’s patience this week as I dealt with an unusually painful root canal and needed time to recover. Back to the normal schedule moving forward!

 

Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 1:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.

For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:

1. This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
2. We have two tables to review before the notes and rankings. First is an injury table that outlines where players would be relatively ranked if fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
3. If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
4. Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
5. Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. Tier 10 is likely going to underperform those in Tier 11 across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase Tier 10’s ceiling vs. settling for Tier 11’s floor.
6. I’ve made a decision to limit labels to just one label per player, with few exceptions for a second. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
7. The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.

 

Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots:

I made a decision last year: I removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.

Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” It’s difficult to update this week-to-week and I apologize if the ranking is different when the player actually returns from the IL. I hope it helps!

One last point about that – often times pitchers need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.

Now let’s take a look at the pitchers I considered for the Top 100 but didn’t quite make the cut:

 

 

I added something new to The List this season. It’s a small table of the prospects I’m personally excited about who would jump up The List quickly if they were confirmed in the rotation. Please don’t read too much into these, there are far better prospect analysts out there than me. Still, I think this table will help you quickly stay on top of who should be on your radar.

They are ordered by my general preference/focus on those guys right now. If any of these are called up, they should be added to your 12-teamers ASAP. Some guys aren’t here (Luis Ortiz, DL Hall, Logan Allen, for example), and that’s due to my own belief they aren’t as pressing as the ones below. I could be very wrong there.

Colors: Green = Most excited about. Yellow = Solid but not as urgent. Orange = Will likely take some time.

 

Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, as each week’s update will reflect the comments and findings from those daily articles. If you’re unfamiliar with some of the players listed, I highly recommend that you read my 45,000+ Top 300 Starting Pitchers from February. Many things will have changed, but the root of my perception of these players is outlined there.

Let’s get to it.

These rankings were set in stone around 7:30 EST and do not reflect Tuesday’s games. My apologies, I tried y’all.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• I know there are going to be a ton of comments about how can you have so many changes in the first two weeks?! or I hate how much these rankings change each week and I’m going to get out ahead of them here.
• These rankings mostly change in the back-half of The List as that’s your waiver wire. Those aren’t the players you hold onto throughout the year like your SPs 1-4, which means we’re going to be a bit more chaotic and roll with the waves more aggressively. If I see elements that suggest a pitcher could be a Top 40 arm, I’m going to move up a ton from the 80s to the 60s. Shazam, there we go.

 

• As is tradition, I need to tell you about the guys who were removed and added from the Top 60, so you have context for the ranking shifts.
• Added: Mason Miller (43)
• Removed: Taj Bradley (48)
• Net Gain Inside Top 60: (0)

 

• The top of the ranks featured some changes I think were necessary. Corbin Burnes and Sandy Alcantara fell out of the top tier (Burnes = underperforming, Alcantara = Biceps concern), with Shane McClanahan, Spencer Strider, and Shohei Ohtani getting deserved rises.
• I still have Luis Castillo over Jacob deGrom simply because of the IP expectation. I really hope I’m wrong about deGrom come October.

 

• The second tier is still massive and I gave just a few adjustments here. Kevin Gausman, Max Fried, and Zac Gallen each got bumps for obvious reasons (no, Gausman will likely not allow 7 ER and I’m not concerned about his velo dip in the short term).
• I was considering giving Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler a larger dip, but I anticipate both improving as the season carries on.

 

• What am I supposed to do with Max Scherzer? The general rule for The List equates to “If they are not in the rotation, remove them” but a 10-game suspension? Considering it’s the same as one skipped start and we’re already halfway through, I’m leaving him where he is.
• I thought of moving Joe Musgrove above Yu Darvish, but let’s give it another week and see where we are then.

 

• No one jumped from the third tier into the group of Aces, but I did give Clayton Kershaw and Joe Ryan a little bit of love…also because Pablo López didn’t have his velocity and Jesús Luzardo hasn’t been as sharp as he was initially. I still have full faith in all these guys, of course.
• I wondered if it was time to drop Shane Bieber into the fourth tier and ultimately didn’t want to do something rash that I correct next week. Let’s see how he fares against the Red Sox.

 

• Getting a huge boost this week was Sonny Gray, who has been all kinds of dominant this season. You can thank his curveball’s dominance with an 88th percentile PLV + a cutter that has helped massively as it carries a 31% CSW. It’s help Gray hold off on heaters and set up his 26% SwStr slider plenty. The only wonder now is if this is a legit rhythm we can trust in as he’s been a bit volatile across his career.
• Speaking of volatility, yes, I dropped Nick Lodolo because of his recent destructive outings, though I think those are extremes and not a showcase of reality. Same goes a little for Logan Webb with his high hit-per-nine, but I needed to keep them a little lower than others who are getting the success they deserve.

 

• HEY YOU I truly can’t thank all of you enough for your patience and kind words over the past few days as I’ve dealt with an uncommon reaction to having a root canal. To thank everyone, we’re gonna give 25% all PL subscriptions this week with coupon code ROOTCANAL. PL+ yearly, PL Pro monthly, whatever you want, you can sign up here. I don’t think we’ve ever done this much (maybe we have?) and thanks for letting me go on the IL for a moment. I hope this edition of The List doesn’t look like a Still ILL situation.

 

• Tier 5 is when things get a bit murky. I’m pulling Chris Bassitt and Lucas Giolito from the sixth tier up here as I trust them more than that crew at the moment to be productive moving forward. Then I stole Jordan Montgomery, Nathan Eovaldi, and Andrew Heaney as guys that I believe in each start moving forward – you’re not dropping them.
• With those seemingly stable arms are two prospects. Grayson Rodriguez hasn’t pitched to his potential yet and this placement is more of a “I believe he’ll lock in and soar soon”. He’s not going to keep those sliders and changeups elevated for long.

 

• Finally, there’s the featured arm of the day Mason Miller. It could be very Matt brash of me to put Miller all the way up at #43, but let’s look at all the pitchers below him. Tier 6 = Lance Lynn, Blake Snell, Charlie Morton, Chris Sale, and Dustin May – All pitchers who we think should be better but have been a HIPSTER thus far in the season. Then you glance at Tier 7 and none of those are locks either.
• That’s all to say that I believe in what Miller does on the bump. His four-seamer is stupid and he backs it up with a filthy 96/97 mph cutter for strikes and a slider that misses bats. The only question is how much he’ll pitch this year, to which I say I don’t care. Sure, for leagues with 5-6 pickups a year, fine, but this is a case where you should be chasing the MASSIVE ceiling with the huge question marks of everyone else behind him. Your last SP is very likely not worth holding onto instead of chasing Miller in a 12-teamer.

 

• Enough ranting about Miller. I already went over Tier 6 (they’ll get better y’all, just give it time. Lynn is pitching better than the lines, Snell will find his breakers, Morton is…Morton, Sale is super unlucky, and May will find the whiffs), so with Tier 7, we’re back “hey, you should chase this instead of that ’stable’ guy who is just okay.”
• That means the youngins of Hunter Brown, Garrett Whitlock, Logan Allen, and Tanner Bibee are all here. I dig Brown’s approach of few fastballs and expect him to improve with more innings, Allen looks like a good command arm with a pair of solid secondaries, Bibee is super exciting with a legit fastball and slider, and despite Whitlock’s second start, I’m still a fan of his sinker/slider/changeup arsenal. These are the fun arms to chase right now.

 

• The Dodgers are bringing back Tony Gonsolin for just four innings this week and I wonder what we should expect. His sub .210 BABIP from last year won’t be repeated and I was skeptical of his splitter’s super high strike rate last season. He’s worth the chase, of course, but there’s a part of me that thinks he could be mediocre in the end.
• I’ve become a bigger fan of Justin Steele and his fastball approach this season. He jams right-handers effectively with four-seamers and still slings a legit slider. There’s something to this that I was overlooking in the winter.

 

• Between Tier 7 and Tier 8 is where the top prospects would land if they were called up, so around here. Think Bibee/Allen.

 

• Tier 8 has more of the names you know, though I’m not the biggest fans of them. It’s a tough time to rank Kenta Maeda after his bumpy start to the season, and Graham Ashcraft looks like a prime sell high in my view with a tougher schedule ahead and lack of dominance across his repertoire.
• Am I buying into Luis Garcia’s 19 cutter whiffs last time out? I’m not sure (he’s facing the Rays now and I’m not checking y’all, it’s the Rays, anyway) and I think the next few weeks will tell one way or another. May as well hedge toward it working out than the other way.

 

• Look at Eduardo Rodriguez go. He looked superb against the Orioles, commanding everything in his arsenal effectively. He’s turning into a solid quality-start machine, which isn’t something I can say for many (anyone?) past #60.
• I dropped Tyler Mahle despite his success simply because of his diminished velocity. He’s not 93 mph anymore y’all and I’m terrified the shoulder is not fully healed. I put him in the Cherry Bomb corner with Brady Singer and Kodai Senga for that reason – all three should be good, but there are clear concerns.

 

• The next tier is essentially the same mindset but a step down. I like Seth Lugo but he’s not quite locked in, while Patrick Sandoval can’t figure out if his slider and changeup can be present on a given night.
• I really think Steven Matz is better than the lines have been thus far and given the lack of strong options at this point, I think he’s a good target to chase off the wire if he’s available.

 

• I have my doubts that Jon Gray can be constantly productive with his fastball/slider combo, while Kyle Wright only has a curveball working in his favor. Not the kind of guys I want to roster.
• Zach Eflin returns from the IL and he could jump up if he showcases the curveball we adore across six innings.

 

• Tier 10 has all the names you’ve wondered about this week. Drew Smyly is executing the BSB, Hayden Wesneski had a rough game in the rain that I won’t judge him for, and Vince Velasquez suddenly went hyper slider and it was wonderful. I’m skeptical Smyly and Velasquez can keep it up, but they are interesting fliers at the moment.
• I was down on Matthew Boyd until I saw 92.4 mph on his heater Monday. The slider whiffs still aren’t there, but there’s momentum forward once again.

 

• It’s funny. I felt like the only one interested in Johan Oviedo’s potential over the winter and now that he’s done well, I’m likely the low man. He still has command issues to iron out that have me staying away at the moment – too Cherry Bomb-esque – but my eye is definitely focused on him across the next few weeks.
• Griffin Canning is going 25% fastballs and that should get you excited. At least consider him for a stream and take it from there.

 

• I didn’t expect Bryce Elder to come through as he has for trusting managers and I had to acknowledge that maybe he keeps it up. I generally don’t like chasing young command-focused arms, though. They are less likely to maintain success than electric arms.
• The final two jumps of the tier go to teammates Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells. I wonder if Bradish’s curve and slider can be as good as they were in his last outing, while Wells is looking like a decent streaming option after taking down the Tigers.

 

• Tier 11 is your “sure, I guess” group of guys. Super risky stuff here – Edward Cabrera’s strike rate, The Great Undulator himself José Berríos, and Peyton Battenfield’s cutter whiffs (and nothing else), as examples – but they could blossom into something real over time.
• I wish I could be back in on Michael Kopech after sitting 96 mph and throwing productive sliders…but I need to see more of it first. He’s burned us so dang much.

 

• In the final tier, we have our Toby arms I don’t feel like rostering with a fair number of intriguing options to grab instead. Sure, they’ll give you volume, but you can get volume by burning-and-churning instead.
• This does exclude #100 Matt Strahm, though. He shocked me by going not just 82 pitches, but collecting 11 strikeouts along the way with a 38% CSW. Do I believe in his curveball and slider each returning a 45%+ CSW when not pitching against an offense like Rockie Road? Nah, but this was cool and maybe there was an adjustment that makes it somewhat real.

 

• Update: I missed that Nick Martinez is no longer in the rotation and added Marco Gonzales at the end in his place.
• Update UPDATE: In my haze I accidentally left off JP Sears, who I’ve placed now at #80 above Bradish. Sorry Marco, you had your fun.

 

SCROLL BACK UP AND READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Gerrit ColeT1	Aces Gonna Ace	-
2	Shane McClanahan	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
3	Spencer Strider	Aces Gonna Ace	+2
4	Shohei Ohtani	Aces Gonna Ace Playing Time Question	+3
5	Luis Castillo	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
6	Jacob deGrom	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	+2
7	Corbin Burnes T2	Aces Gonna Ace	-5
8	Sandy Alcantara	Aces Gonna Ace	-4
9	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace	+2
10	Aaron Nola	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
11	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-1
12	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-
13	Cristian Javier	Aces Gonna Ace	-
14	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace	+3
15	Dylan Cease	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
16	Zac Gallen	Aces Gonna Ace	+3
17	Julio Urías	Aces Gonna Ace	-2
18	Yu Darvish	Aces Gonna Ace	-2
19	Joe Musgrove	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
20	Framber Valdez T3	Ace Potential	-
21	Joe Ryan	Ace Potential	+2
22	Pablo López	Ace Potential	-
23	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	+2
24	Jesús Luzardo	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-3
25	Freddy Peralta	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-1
26	Shane Bieber	Ace Potential	-
27	Nestor Cortes T4	Ace Potential	-
28	Drew Rasmussen	Ace Potential	-
29	Sonny Gray	Strikeout Upside	+14
30	George Kirby	Ace Potential	-
31	Hunter Greene	Ace Potential	+1
32	Reid Detmers	Ace Potential	+2
33	Logan Gilbert	Ace Potential	-
34	Logan Webb	Ace Potential	-3
35	Alek Manoah	Ace Potential	-
36	Nick Lodolo	Ace Potential	-7
37	Chris Bassitt T5	Ace Potential	+5
38	Lucas Giolito	Ace Potential	-
39	Grayson Rodriguez	Ace Potential	+8
40	Jordan Montgomery	Quality Starts	+6
41	Nathan Eovaldi	Quality Starts	+16
42	Andrew Heaney	Strikeout Upside	+2
43	Mason Miller	Ace Potential	+UR
44	Lance Lynn T6	Ace Potential	-8
45	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential	-4
46	Blake Snell	Ace Potential	-9
47	Chris Sale	Ace Potential	-7
48	Dustin May	Ace Potential	-9
49	Hunter Brown T7	Ace Potential Playing Time Question	-4
50	Justin Steele	Ace Potential	+8
51	Logan Allen	Ace Potential	+UR
52	Tanner Bibee	Ace Potential	+UR
53	Tony Gonsolin	Ace Potential	+UR
54	Garrett Whitlock	Ace Potential	-5
55	Marcus Stroman T8	Quality Starts	-1
56	Alex Cobb	Cherry Bomb	-3
57	Kenta Maeda	Ace Potential	-6
58	Jack Flaherty	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+1
59	Eduardo Rodriguez	Quality Starts	+23
60	Graham Ashcraft	Ratio Focused	+1
61	Luis Garcia	Strikeout Upside	+16
62	Tyler Mahle	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-12
63	Brady Singer	Cherry Bomb	-8
64	Kodai Senga	Cherry Bomb	-8
65	Seth Lugo T9	Cherry Bomb	+10
66	Patrick Sandoval	Cherry Bomb	-6
67	Zach Eflin	Quality Starts	+UR
68	Kyle Wright	Ace Potential	-6
69	Steven Matz	Ratio Focused	-5
70	Jon Gray	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-7
71	T10	Cherry Bomb	+UR
72	Hayden Wesneski	Strikeout Upside	-
73	Vince Velasquez	Strikeout Upside	+UR
74	Matthew Boyd	Strikeout Upside	+4
75	MacKenzie Gore	Cherry Bomb	-2
76	Johan Oviedo	Strikeout Upside	-6
77	Griffin Canning	Streaming Option	+UR
78	Mitch Keller	Cherry Bomb	+7
79	Bryce Elder	Streaming Option	+UR
80		Streaming Option	+UR
81	Kyle Bradish	Cherry Bomb	+14
82	Tyler Wells	Streaming Option	+17
83	Kyle Gibson T11	Toby	+1
84	Edward Cabrera	Cherry Bomb	+4
85	José Berríos	Cherry Bomb	+UR
86	José Urquidy	Toby	-18
87	Domingo Germán	Strikeout Upside	-13
88	Peyton Battenfield	Streaming Option	+12
89	Anthony DeSclafani	Quality Starts	-10
90	Tylor Megill	Streaming Option	-4
91	Wade Miley	Streaming Option	-1
92	Josiah Gray	Cherry Bomb	-1
93	Ryne Nelson	Streaming Option	-28
94	Michael Kopech	Cherry Bomb	-2
95	Yusei Kikuchi	Cherry Bomb	-2
96	Martín Pérez T12	Toby	-16
97	Tyler Anderson	Toby	-14
98	Merrill Kelly	Toby	-4
99	Noah Syndergaard	Toby	-18
100	Matt Strahm	Streaming Option	+UR

 

Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)