The List 4/17: Top 100 Starting Pitchers – Week 3 Fantasy Baseball 2023

Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 1:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.

For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:

1. This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
2. We have two tables to review before the notes and rankings. First is an injury table that outlines where players would be relatively ranked if fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
3. If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
4. Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
5. Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. Tier 10 is likely going to underperform those in Tier 11 across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase Tier 10’s ceiling vs. settling for Tier 11’s floor.
6. I’ve made a decision to limit labels to just one label per player, with few exceptions for a second. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
7. The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.

 

Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots:

I made a decision last year: I removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.

Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” It’s difficult to update this week-to-week and I apologize if the ranking is different when the player actually returns from the IL. I hope it helps!

One last point about that – often times pitchers need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.

Now let’s take a look at the pitchers I considered for the Top 100 but didn’t quite make the cut:

 

 

I’m going to add something new to The List this week. It’s a small table of the prospects I’m personally excited about who would jump up The List quickly if they were confirmed in the rotation. Please don’t read too much into these, there are far better prospect analysts out there than me. Still, I think this table will help you quickly stay on top of who should be on your radar.

They are ordered by my general preference/focus on those guys right now. If any of these are called up, they should be added to your 12-teamers ASAP. Some guys aren’t here (Luis Ortiz, DL Hall, Logan Allen, for example), and that’s due to my own belief they aren’t as pressing as the ones below. I could be very wrong there.

Colors: Green = Most excited about. Yellow = Solid but not as urgent. Orange = Will likely take some time.

 

Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, as each week’s update will reflect the comments and findings from those daily articles. If you’re unfamiliar with some of the players listed, I highly recommend that you read my 45,000+ Top 300 Starting Pitchers from February. Many things will have changed, but the root of my perception of these players is outlined there.

Let’s get to it.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• I know there are going to be a ton of comments about how can you have so many changes in the first two weeks?! or I hate how much these rankings change each week and I’m going to get out ahead of them here.
• These rankings mostly change in the back-half of The List as that’s your waiver wire. Those aren’t the players you hold onto throughout the year like your SPs 1-4, which means we’re going to be a bit more chaotic and roll with the waves more aggressively. If I see elements that suggest a pitcher could be a Top 40 arm, I’m going to move up a ton from the 80s to the 60s. Shazam, there we go.

 

• As is tradition, I need to tell you about the guys who were removed and added from the Top 60, so you have context for the ranking shifts.
• Added: Max Fried (17), Joe Musgrove (18), Taj Bradley (48)
• Removed: Brandon Woodruff (5), Jeffrey Springs (26), Zach Eflin (59)
• Net Gain Inside Top 60: (0)

 

• I’m not making sweeping changes to the Top 20 starters, but there are some of note this week. I elected to open up Tier 1 to include the Top 8 SP, with Sandy Alcantara dropping a spot, Jacob deGrom coming up a bit (less time to get injured!), and Aaron Nola falling out as he hasn’t had a dominant start.
• Why isn’t Alcantara falling further? There’s a point I want to make clear in these ranks that I stand by. This is not a ranking of what HAS happened, it’s a ranking of what I think WILL happen. All those disasters and successes in the past? We don’t get points for those moving forward. I think Sandy isn’t broken, while I have more questions about Nola.

 

• Carrying on into Tier 2, I moved down Max Scherzer a touch while elevating Kevin Gausman as my eyebrow raised for Cristian Javier. For Scherzer, the back injury has me wondering if it’ll be a recurring issue, Gausman is looking fantastic, and Javier hasn’t had a game where it all comes together quite yet.
• Returning to The List this week are Max Fried and Joe Musgrove. Don’t overjudge both of these pitchers in their first starts back, but they should be auto-starts the rest of the way.

 

• I moved Zac Gallen out of tier three with his two recent outings, though I wish we had seen him face a strong opponent first. I still feel good about it, I just want that validation against the Padres.
• We have some major changes beginning with the aforementioned Tier 3, but Jesús Luzardo isn’t one of them as he only rises one spot due to Alek Manoah’s fall. I’m a huge fan of Luzardo, I simply think it’s too soon to raise him above the others.

 

• Below Luzardo are teammates Pablo López and Joe Ryan as they’ve dominated out of the gate. López’s repertoire depth has him the spot above Ryan, though the potential for Ryan once he unlocks his slider and/or splitter makes for a good case to have the upper ranking. Ryan’s four-seamer is just so dang good.
• Their raise brings dings to Freddy Peralta and Clayton Kershaw, but Shane Bieber’s fall is of his own doing. Bieber failed to earn a strikeout per inning in each of his last two starts, a product of his fastball barely keep its head above the 90 mph water line. On Sunday he exposed what it looks like when his slider isn’t at its peak and I feel it’s time we recognize that Bieber shouldn’t be spoken in the breath as the legit aces. A 25%+ strikeout rate seems out of reach with his current repertoire.

 

• I’m a bit torn about Tier 4. The first trio are exciting arms in Nestor Cortes, Drew Rasmussen, and Nick Lodolo, though I can see worlds where they don’t grasp the ceiling we want them to achieve. There’s a chance you’ll see them in Tier 3 in short order.
• From George Kirby through Logan Gilbert, there’s less optimism about their ability to be their best selves. Kirby hasn’t developed the secondaries, Logan Webb still seems like a singles machine, Hunter Greene has Cherry Bomb tendencies, and Logan Gilbert isn’t locked in with his slider/curve/split.

 

• The last one of the tier is Reid Detmers, who I’m awfully tempted to raise in the ranks behind Nick Lodolo, but I want to see him go a clean six innings first without. Truly dominate for a full outing or two and then we’ll talk. The slider is looking really lovely with his new fastball velocity, though.

 

• It’s time for Tier five, otherwise known as the TIARA tier – these arms need to get it together. Who better to kick it off than Alek Manoah, who falls 16 spots as he’s clearly not the man we want him to be…so far. The four-seamer hasn’t missed as many bats, the slider’s shape is worse, and the sinker hasn’t improved from 2022. That said, this is about the future n all and the safe bet is for Manoah to be heavily worthwhile across the next 5+ months. How soon? I’m not sure and if you’d like to lower him on the ranks, be my guest.

 

• The rest of Tier 5 can follow nearly the same approach. Lance Lynn struck out ten last time out, but he feels like a Cherry Bomb. I personally believe Blake Snell will make the tweak with his breakers to earn strikes once again, unlocking his ace upside (he’s been bad, but how much longer will that last?), I see Chris Sale as ramping up to his former self with some horrid four-seamer and slider luck thus far (.667 BABIP on the fastball, .500 on the slider), Lucas Giolito needs to get his slider and changeup in order (he will), and Chris Bassitt + Charlie Morton still have the stuff that makes them tick.
• I didn’t mention Dustin May who I view a little differently as a younger arm. There’s less assumption of “okay, he’ll figure it out”, but you can’t deny his ceiling if the whiffs are there with his curve and cutter. I hope we see it soon.

 

• The sixth tier and seventh tiers are tightly linked with the former being the guys I’m excited about and the latter carrying pitchers who I believe in but aren’t hyping managers at the moment.
• Andrew Heaney had a phenomenal start against the Astros after fanning ten in the previous outing and it’s hard not to jump on that bandwagon. Sonny Gray has been excellent for the Twins (even while being sick!) and Hunter Brown’s low fastball usage is clearly the way to go.

 

• Some may want a drop for Grayson Rodriguez, though I think that overlooks his potential and considers allowing two homeruns in the first as “destined to fail”. Once Grayson regains his feel to get his slider and changeup under the zone, he’ll destroy batters on a regular basis.
• We’re all excited about Taj Bradley coming up for the Rays and I may be a bit too high with my ranking here. I trust he’ll be in the rotation for a while now that Jeffrey Springs is on the shelf, and the major pushback comes from the Rays notoriously attaching a leash to their young arms. That said, Bradley’s four-seamer is excellent and his ability to get strikes with his secondaries sets him up for excellence in ways few do outside the Top 50.

 

• We’ve seen the return of Garrett Whitlock and I’m digging what he brings to the table with well-commanded sinkers and a whiff-heavy slider. There’s legit room to grow with his changeup as well, making Whitlock a must-hold in your 12-teamers.
• Tyler Mahle’s velocity has been a focus of mine and despite not the greatest start against the Yankees, the fact that his fastball is still performing well outlines future success.

 

• Tier seven has a ton of red but that’s more because of my excitement of those in the tier above. I’m still holding onto Kenta Maeda as he ramps up from returning from TJS, while Brady Singer and Nathan Eovaldi showed us what can happen when their stuff isn’t exactly on point.
• I still like all of these, including Sean Manaea’s new velocity, Marcus Stroman being a dependable rock, and Alex Cobb’s new slider helping him earn strikes.

 

• I did a thing. I lowered Kodai Senga as we saw what happens when his Ghost Fork isn’t present. It worries me as he earns the Cherry Bomb tag, slotting him right underneath Singer’s similar label.
• Another Cherry Bomb starts Tier 8 with Justin Steele. His four-seamer has performed far better than expected this season and while he’s excelled so far, I’m still skeptical his two-pitch approach can stave off the horrible outings consistently. He’ll continue to rise the more he defies it.

 

• Also inside Tier 8 is the greatest riser of them all – Jack Flaherty. Flaherty’s last two starts have come with a spike in velocity to 93/94 mph and what makes me interested now is ten slider whiffs in Coors. Considering we’re at the point on The List where we begin chasing potential breakouts over decent-but-not-electric production, Flaherty jumps up a ton. I really hope he’s turned a corner here.
• I’m encouraged by Graham Ashcraft, but still need to see more. His command isn’t what we want it to be and pitching for Reds offers few favors.

 

• This is about the spot on The List that I’d heavily consider stashing some of those prospect arms. Look at your weeks ahead and if there isn’t a play you enjoy streaming, go for a prospect stash instead.

 

• It hasn’t been the greatest start for Steven Matz, though I believe in what he brings to the table and in a good situation inside the St. Louis rotation. Things should get better here.
• I have Ryne Nelson over Drey Jameson for a simple reason – the schedule is far better. I’m curious to see who wins out across the season, though.

 

• The ninth tier is all about “welp, let’s see what else we can try to chase” with the surprise addition of Brad Keller leading the pack. He’s introduced a new curveball and took down the Rangers. If it sticks for a third outing in a row this week, expect Keller (the right Keller) to be the talk of the town.
• Johan Oviedo may be that guy right now, and despite my internal adoration for Oviedo over the last two years, I still wonder if he’s polished enough to push the needle in your favor this season. He’s turned away from fastballs to feature more breakers, though his overall command still leaves plenty to be desired. In addition, it’s far from beneficial to pitch for the Pirates, which means there are a lot of ways this goes wrong before it goes right.

 

• Yes, I watched Brayan Bello have himself a horrible day in his return from the IL at Fenway. I also considered it a Still ILL anyway, not to mention the horrific weather that plagued everyone. That start is behind us now and Bello carries legit upside that could impact your fantasy leagues in a major way. If anything, this start is great as it may mean he hangs on the wire a little longer.
• Trevor Rogers executed the BSB to perfection in his last start, but will it stick? I sure hope so.

 

• Come on Nick, Hayden Wesneski has been terrible! He sure has. And he could also find a rhythm with his slider and dominate as soon as this week. At least he has a tangible ceiling to chase at the moment.
• The controversial strikeout game from Domingo Germán brings a whole lot of haze into believing if his performance is an indication of success moving forward. I’m not a believer yet, but I recognize that it could work moving forward. Be careful against the Jays, though.

 

• Tier 10 features arms I believe can be Toby types with a touch more strikeout upside throughout the year..but haven’t quite put it all together yet. For example, just because Matthew Boyd sat 91 mph and had two slider whiffs doesn’t mean he’s destined to perform that way for the rest of the year. Monitor these situations across the board.
• Anthony DeSclafani is the one exception here. I gave him a huge drop (so sorry!) simply because he gets the Mets, Cardinals, and Astros up next. His lovely stretch was fueled by dates with the White Sox, Royals, and Tigers and his sinker/slider combo isn’t elite enough to justify sticking through the gauntlet ahead.

 

• Ah, we’ve arrived at the true Toby tier. Take your pick, maybe even Kyle Gibson as he has a luscious schedule ahead for the Orioles. Just don’t but into Noah Syndergaard’s nine-strikeout game as a renaissance, okay?
• I hope Eduardo Rodriguez can pull himself out of this tier moving forward. The path is there if he sits 93 mph and gets whiffs on the changeup.

 

• Tier 12 is your last push for ceiling. I was initially planning on placing Mitch Keller into Tier 9, but his Cherry Bomb tendencies showed up over the weekend and I’m not nearly as encouraged. Sorry bucko.
• Tylor Megill and Jameson Taillon could impress as they get more comfortable across the month of April, Alex Wood has a great matchup against the Marlins to take advantage of, Edward Cabrera may earn more than 60% strikes with four-seamers, and somehow Wade Miley earned eight strikeouts across seven shutout frames. It was weird.

 

• Sorry Michael Kopech, you’re a Cherry Bomb and I really don’t want to chase this anymore. The whiffs aren’t there and your command cannot be trusted.
• Despite Yusei Kikuchi having himself a strong outing over the weekend, we all know he can very likely fall back down to Earth later this week. That’s not the roll of dice I want to make.

 

• In the final tier, Merrill Kelly has a rough schedule that doesn’t demand managers to hold on tight. Bailey Falter, Cal Quantrill, Zach Plesac, and Tyler Wells all have easier schedules and if you’re favoring the short-term over the long, they could be better plays than Kelly.
• Kyle Bradish is expected to return this week (don’t worry, Grayson takes Cole Irvin’s rotation spot) and I’m okay with it. Let him show us his upside first.

 

• For the coveted #100 spot, I went with Peyton Battenfield as he’s slated to go against the Tigers on Tuesday. He earned 12 cutter whiffs against the Yankees and it may translate to more domination against a weak Tigers crew.

 

SCROLL BACK UP AND READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Gerrit ColeT1	Aces Gonna Ace	-
2	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace	-
3	Shane McClanahan	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
4	Sandy Alcantara	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
5	Spencer Strider	Aces Gonna Ace	+2
6	Luis Castillo	Aces Gonna Ace	+3
7	Shohei Ohtani	Aces Gonna Ace Playing Time Question	+1
8	Jacob deGrom	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	+2
9	Aaron Nola T2	Aces Gonna Ace	-3
10	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	+2
11	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace	+3
12	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-1
13	Cristian Javier	Aces Gonna Ace	-
14	Dylan Cease	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
15	Julio Urías	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
16	Yu Darvish	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
17	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace	+UR
18	Joe Musgrove	Aces Gonna Ace	+UR
19	Zac Gallen	Aces Gonna Ace	+2
20	Framber Valdez T3	Ace Potential	-
21	Jesús Luzardo	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+1
22	Pablo López	Ace Potential	+6
23	Joe Ryan	Ace Potential	+10
24	Freddy Peralta	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-1
25	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-1
26	Shane Bieber	Ace Potential	-8
27	Nestor Cortes T4	Ace Potential	+2
28	Drew Rasmussen	Ace Potential	-3
29	Nick Lodolo	Ace Potential	-2
30	George Kirby	Ace Potential	-
31	Logan Webb	Ace Potential	-
32	Hunter Greene	Ace Potential	-
33	Logan Gilbert	Ace Potential	+1
34	Reid Detmers	Ace Potential	+1
35	Alek Manoah T5	Ace Potential	-16
36	Lance Lynn	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-
37	Blake Snell	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-
38	Lucas Giolito	Ace Potential	+1
39	Dustin May	Ace Potential	-1
40	Chris Sale	Ace Potential	-
41	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential	-
42	Chris Bassitt	Ace Potential	-
43	Sonny Gray T6	Strikeout Upside	+3
44	Andrew Heaney	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+16
45	Hunter Brown	Ace Potential Playing Time Question	+5
46	Jordan Montgomery	Quality Starts	-1
47	Grayson Rodriguez	Ace Potential	-
48	Taj Bradley	Ace Potential	+UR
49	Garrett Whitlock	Ace Potential	+7
50	Tyler Mahle	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+8
51	Kenta Maeda T7	Ace Potential	-8
52	Sean Manaea	Strikeout Upside	-
53	Alex Cobb	Cherry Bomb	-4
54	Marcus Stroman	Quality Starts	-1
55	Brady Singer	Cherry Bomb	-4
56	Kodai Senga	Cherry Bomb	-12
57	Nathan Eovaldi	Quality Starts	-9
58	Justin Steele T8	Cherry Bomb	+8
59	Jack Flaherty	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+33
60	Patrick Sandoval	Cherry Bomb	-6
61	Graham Ashcraft	Cherry Bomb	+3
62	Kyle Wright	Ace Potential	-7
63	Jon Gray	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-2
64	Steven Matz	Ratio Focused	+5
65	Ryne Nelson	Streaming Option	+13
66	Brad Keller T9	Streaming Option	+UR
67	Trevor Rogers	Strikeout Upside	+24
68	José Urquidy	Toby	+2
69	Drey Jameson	Streaming Option	+3
70	Johan Oviedo	Strikeout Upside	+UR
71	Brayan Bello	Strikeout Upside	+UR
72	Hayden Wesneski	Strikeout Upside	-10
73	MacKenzie Gore	Cherry Bomb	-2
74	Domingo Germán	Strikeout Upside	+5
75	Seth Lugo T10	Cherry Bomb	-18
76	Nick Martinez	Cherry Bomb	-9
77	Luis Garcia	Ratio Focused	-9
78	Matthew Boyd	Strikeout Upside	-1
79	Anthony DeSclafani	Quality Starts	-16
80	Martín Pérez T11	Toby	-
81	Noah Syndergaard	Toby	-
82	Eduardo Rodriguez	Toby	-
83	Tyler Anderson	Toby	-
84	Kyle Gibson	Toby	-
85	Mitch Keller T12	Cherry Bomb	+13
86	Tylor Megill	Streaming Option	-13
87	Jameson Taillon	Toby	-12
88	Edward Cabrera	Strikeout Upside	+7
89	Alex Wood	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+7
90	Wade Miley	Streaming Option	+UR
91	Josiah Gray	Cherry Bomb	+3
92	Michael Kopech	Cherry Bomb	-16
93	Yusei Kikuchi	Cherry Bomb	+UR
94	Merrill Kelly T13	Toby	-9
95	Kyle Bradish	Cherry Bomb	+UR
96	Bailey Falter	Streaming Option	-9
97	Cal Quantrill	Streaming Option	-9
98	Zach Plesac	Streaming Option	-9
99	Tyler Wells	Streaming Option	+1
100	Peyton Battenfield	Streaming Option	+UR

 

Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)