I feel the need to talk about Dan Straily today after he just went 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks against the A’s. There may be a good amount of you staring at his 2.89 ERA and wonder why he’s not on your squad. Short answer: He’s incredibly boring and will shift from that boring fiend to the one who unleashes his bottled emotions in one massive outburst that will traumatize your life. He carries a horrible walk rate near 4.00 per 9 and his K/9 is inflated by one start where he struck out 11. That start is one of only two where he’s fanned more than five batters. At the same time, I have to acknowledge that he’s allowed more than 3 ER just once all year, which leads to his aforementioned low 2.89 ERA. But all the advanced stats hate him and I can’t sit idly as his BABIP sits at .226 while inducing just 17.6% soft contact. It’s not a recipe for prolonged success, and he’ll run out of sacrifices to the baseball gods soon enough.
Let’s see what every other SP did yesterday:
Matt Shoemaker – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks. This is getting stupid now and I don’t see it stopping anytime soon as he gets the A’s next. There will be a time to sell later on – probably in mid July – but you best ride this out for now.
Danny Duffy – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks. Just so we’re clear, I wasn’t a believer before given his track record as a starter, but I’ve been turned since he’s kept up his high velocity and now holds an elite whiff rate among starters. I should have had him speculatively higher on The List last week, and he’s getting a mega bump tomorrow.
Colby Lewis – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. This is a ticking time bomb that some are endorsing like crazy, which seems silly given his .249 BABIP this year from someone with a 37.5% hard hit rate. You know, someone even messaged me, trying to call me out for my prolonged distaste of Lewis like I’m suddenly supposed to be a believer. It’s funny, since I can either not provide insight and call it a day by just quoting a 3.00 ERA, or show why he’s going to regress like crazy (4.36 FIP, 4.67 xFIP, 4.57 SIERA) and how his 5.79 K/9 is atrocious. But hey, it’s your team, not mine.
Tanner Roark – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Phew, I was slightly worried that Roark was losing a step last time out, but he’s back where he should be given his silky smooth schedule for the next month +. Awww yis. Sidenote: I can’t believe I’m getting kinda excited about Roark. This has been the weirdest SP season.
Carlos Martinez – 8.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. I still think Cmart is overrated as his ERA/xFIP/FIP all sit from about 3.50 – 4.00 with a poor walk rate and sporadic strikeouts. I’m far from saying drop him, though I think some still label him as definitively Top 25 and I just don’t see it.
Jose Quintana – 8.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks. Great to see Quintana dominate in an outing again. Sure, you’d want 2 ER instead of 3, but give the guy a break with that luscious WHIP and 10 Ks.
James Paxton – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. THE HYPE TRAIN IS LEAVING THE STATION. Seriously, I think I’ll have Paxton in the Top 50 tomorrow, no joke.
Justin Verlander – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Boom Baby. This isn’t going to stop.
Chris Archer – 7.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. Archer looked great in this outing, reinforced by refusing to issue a single free pass in the game. I’d imagine a good amount of people don’t want to touch Archer these days, so hold on tight and hope he’s coming out the other side of the tunnel.
Jake Arrieta – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. This is the most boring Arrieta start I have seen since he was on the O’s. I mean, I guess it works but just 3 Ks and two walks against the Braves?!
Mike Fiers – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. You damn well will take this from Fiers if you ran with him, lack of Ks be damned.
Francisco Liriano – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks. Oh dear, I’d be careful. This is the ceiling of Liriano and that floor is mighty far away. ECHO! Echo! Echo! Echo!
Trevor Bauer – 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Pretty boring, which is odd coming from Bauer. I don’t trust him long term as he has too long of a history of volatility.
Zack Godley – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Godley isn’t this good and this isn’t really that good.
Jose Fernandez – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. Everything is great outside of the sixth inning, where he allowed all of his five hits a in a row with two outs including a solo shot. So it goes.
Daniel Mengden – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. So there were elements that I did like from Mengden in his debut – the ability to dial it up around 95, a Slider that can be deadly – though I don’t think he has the all around ability to make a major impact. He may be a decent streamer here and there, but I don’t see him suddenly becoming the MUST ADD everywhere. That moustache certainly is, though. I gotta get me one of those.
J.A. Happ – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. It’s been a tough schedule for Happ, but he gets a start against Philly next week that I want to hold onto for. I’d drop after that.
Tyler Chatwood – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. Some people like Chatwood as the other possible Rockie streamer, but I really can’t endorse it when he has collected just 51 Ks in 84 innings, so…Chatwood has limited upside, pitches his home games at Coors Field, and doesn’t deserve a spot on your team. This should be the blurb for every Colorado starter not named Gray and maybe even Gray.
Wily Peralta – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Stop being so Wily!
Scott Kazmir – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks. Blegh. Can’t call myself much of a Kaz fan these days.
Masahiro Tanaka – 6.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. This came after four starts where he allowed 4 ER combined, and it was against the Tigers, after all. The more worrisome stat is the strikeouts, as he hasn’t fanned more than four in each of the last five games. That isn’t a good trend at all.
Jeff Samardzija – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. After his excellent start to the season, Loose Lips has returned to sink ships, allowing 12 ER in 14.2 IP across his last three outings. Ouch.
Mike Wright – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks. It’s the wrong Wright.
Eduardo Rodriguez – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. Yeah, I have to Erod a major fall and it’s really sad. I wish it didn’t have to be this way, but it does.
Kyle Gibson – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. I’ve had horrible Chinese knock-off Gibsons that are better plays than Kyle.
Logan Verrett – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. Bleeegggggh. I kinda feel bad for Verrett, since he’s the forgotten spot starter for the Mets that doesn’t get anywhere close to the love of everyone else, including The Big Apple. Nor should he, but it’s still a weird position to be in.
Aaron Nola – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. I guess I’ll allow Easy A to have one bump in the road. I’d love to buy low if someone thinks this is the beginning of the end.
Matt Wisler – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Matty wasn’t so nice and y’all shouldn’t be expecting much from him these days.
Erik Johnson – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. There may be a time that Erik becomes a decent Toby kind of guy, but now is not that time. And it wouldn’t be for a long long time.
Today’s Streamers
Rick Porcello vs. Minnesota Twins – I’m not the biggest fan of Porcello these days, but he gets some much needed respite in his schedule to face a hobbling Twins offense. Other options include Sean Manaea against the Reds, Zach Davies facing the Mets, and a super deep roll of the dice with John Lamb vs the A’s.
Tomorrow’s Streamer
Martin Perez vs. Oakland Athletics – Perez is a BABIP lover who has managed a 3.22 ERA this year, and in a blegh day for streamers, this is your best option. I can see someone trusting Juan Nicasio vs. the Mets given his previous solid outing against them, or even Tom Koehler vs. the Padres.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Anthony DeSclafani vs. Atlanta Braves – If he’s still around in your league, go grab him for this start. Few options today (Nate Karns against the Rays works, but he’s most likely taken), and Tony Disco is your best shot.
Game of the Day
Dallas Keuchel vs. Tampa Bay Rays – I’m curious if Keuchel is turning the corner or not, and I’m crossing my fingers he doesn’t have a setback against the weak Rays.