I’m running out of Kevin Gausman puns as I’ve led with him a decent amount this year but I feel like I need to make some noise after his 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks start yesterday against the Rays. I’ve been suggesting that Gausman could be on the road to recovery over the last month and here are some startling numbers. Prior to his July 2nd start (five games ago), Gausman held a 8.5% whiff rate, 58.1% First Strike Rate, 28.2% O-Swing overall, with a -3.5 pVal mark on his Splitter as he threw his best pitch just 16.0% of the time. The result was a 7.01 K/9, 4.29 BB/9, and 5.20 xFIP. Atrocious. But since July 2nd, here are those numbers across five starts: 16.4% whiff rate. 65.2% First Strike rate, 32.9% O-Swing overall, with a 0.7 pVal on his Splitter as he bumped his usage rate to 27.1%. And what do you know, he has a 12.81 K/9, 2.77 BB/9 and 2.78 xFIP in that time. Yeah, you get the idea. He’s getting ahead more often, allowing him to set up his Splitter plenty and boosting his strikeout numbers in the process. Now I’m not going to tell you it’s going to stick – small sample size and it’s possible his Fastball command dies away so he stops getting ahead as often – but this isn’t just some mirage and a random fluke as there’s a clear reason for his success. If you’re in dire need, Gausman is a better bet than you think.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
Adam Conley – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Here’s another outing you’re going to see and wonder if he’s worth the pickup. The short answer: not really. I can see Conley being a streamer – he hadn’t been worthy of it since 2016, really – though I don’t love his entire M.O. as a pitcher. Fastball isn’t a sturdy foundation and his Slider is good but not deadly enough to save him from his heater.
Mike Leake – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. It’s about time we had another Leake start to rope some people into still owning Leake. Here are some fun numbers: First 9 starts of 2017: 1.91 ERA, 6.16 K/9, 1.47 BB/9, 6.79 IPS. Last 11 starts: 4.48 ERA, 5.92 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 5.67 IPS. Yeaaaah not touching this Grave Mistake.
James Paxton – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks. Aces gonna ace. And this was against the Red Sox! He now has a 2.36 ERA, 2.09 FIP, 2.78 xFIP, 10.84 K/9, 2.17 BB/9, 6.5 IPS, and 0.94 across his last seven starts. Oh Paxton, you always know just what to say.
Miguel Gonzalez – 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Miguel…no.
Kyle Hendricks – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. It was DLH for Hendricks and and that terrible WHIP maaaay be some justification for that, but you’re happy with a good ERA and 5 Ks. Still find it hard to be a major Hendricks fan but I think he should be rostered in all 12 teamers. Wait, have you even heard Manic Depression? Yes, because this is clearly a music site and not baseball focused. Good point.
Brad Peacock – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. A rain delay cut this start short for Peacock, which is incredibly frustrating since he already had over a K per inning and could have easily gone six with 8 Ks or so. So it goes, keep holding onto Peacock as we hope he sticks in the rotation during a healthy Houston staff.
Matt Cain – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Go away Cain.
Gerrit Cole – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. I want to be happy Cole has allowed 2 ER or fewer in seven of his last eight starts now, but four walks? Why do you need to walk four San Francisco hitters when you’re up 6-0 by the second frame? Whatever, the King of Really Good continues his legend.
Jacob deGrom – 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Man I love this guy.
Zack Greinke – 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Aces gonna ace. I was debating a ton yesterday if I should place deGrom above Greinke or not. They really are super close with Greinke being a touch more consistent while deGrom has the greater K upside on a given night. Funny how that expressed itself last night via the differences in strikeouts and WHIP.
Francisco Liriano – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Whoa, Liriano had a good start! I think the most shocking part here is that this is the most strikeouts he’s had over his last seven starts. That’s crazy.
Hyun-Jin Ryu – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Meh, this is fine I guess. Ryu should get stable time as long as he’s healthy and I’m fine starting him against poor teams. The Twins aren’t one of those, so I guess we’re cool with this.
Josh Tomlin – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Oh this is dumb. Tomlin, I know you have it in you to be terrible, so please, please do that so Mike Clevinger has a clear path to stick in rotation for the rest of the season.
Bartolo Colon – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Thankfully for the world, this was not Colon’s final start as some have guessed as he told us he wants to “pitch until I’m 45,” as that’s what he promised his mother before she passed away. What a guy. Guess we’ll see you for a month or two in 2018 and have a Birthday Party then, right?
Jason Hammel – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. So this is interesting. Hammel had one really bad 6 ER start on July 1st, but in the other nine of his last ten starts, Hammel is holding a 3.05 ERA with a 6.75 K/9, 1.76 BB/9 and 6.22 IPS. That’s pretty impressive, actually. Sure, it’s a Grave Mistake but there is obviously some value to have in some leagues out there.
Martin Perez – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Sure, whatever Perez.
Chris Smith – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. Takes a sip from his Pitcher List official coffee mug That’s a Cup of Schmo alright. See, it just seems so much more legit after that sip.
Blake Snell – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. You see Snell? If you don’t walk batters you can actually survive through six innings! Heck, seven! There’s little reason to believe he can do this again, though. Womp womp.
Justin Verlander – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks. Yes I’m happy with this as Verlander continues his “streak” of 10 three or fewer ER starts in his last 11 games. Problem here is that he gets the Astros next and I’m pretty concerned with that. I can see 5.2 innings, 4 ER, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. I hope I’m wrong, but I would play that one by
R.A. Dickey – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks. I saw Dickey owned in a good amount of 12-teamers. Come on guys, Don’t Trust A Knuckleballer.
Eduardo Rodriguez – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Ugh, I wanted to see Erod take another step forward after his eight strikeout game in his first start back, but to be fair, he did pitch well save for a poor second frame. You shouldn’t have any reservations starting him against the Royals next, of course.
Antonio Senzatela – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Senz-a just isn’t someone I want to roll with, pretty much ever save for the Padres. This start was in St. Louis and if you can’t make it there, you can’t make it anywhere.
Tim Adleman – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Welp. I didn’t want to go with Conley or Gausman and I paid the price. HE DIDN’T EVEN GIVE ME K PRODUCTION. Blegh, let’s move on. Streamer Record 50-37-12.
Vincent Velasquez – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks. We didn’t think this would go well against the Astros, VV’s former team. I don’t like chasing Velasquez, but I can’t deny that he can show up with a 7+ K game every so often, especially if he’s facing weak teams.
Clayton Richard – 8.0 IP, 5 ER, 12 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. It’s the wrong Clayton! I find it amazing to see him toss 123 pitches in this game. I thought it was against the law to throw more than 120?
Seth Lugo vs. San Diego Padres – This is assuming that Luis Castillo is gone in your league as I don’t believe the sub 20% in ESPN right now. Lugo isn’t my favorite arm but he could be beneficial against a weak offense in the Padres.
Alex Meyer vs Cleveland Indians – Once again, I have little to no options as it’s Ace Day, and I’m not going to tell you to chase Paul Blackburn against the Jays or Homer Bailey against the Yankees. Trevor Williams against the Giants? No way. Not even Jeff Hoffman against the Cardinals as he’s been on a nose dive. The best choice is Meyer, who just tossed his best outing of the year. I hate it as I don’t trust he’s going to be that good with his Fastball again, but it’s the best you’ve got. Okay, so Meyer was placed on the DL meaning I’m going with…oh snap! Corbin is now owned under 25% of teams! BEAUTIFUL. Patrick Corbin against the Braves is the easy choice here.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Luis Perdomo vs. New York Mets – It’s Perdomo or CC Sabathia against the Rays and I can’t say I love that one. Don’t expect much here, but a Quality Start could be coming.
Game of the Day
Luis Castillo vs. Jordan Montgomery – This start just sounds so much fun. Let’s hope David Cone is in the NYY broadcast booth as he can salivate over Castillo like
the rest of us me.
I am third in my ESPN league if the playoffs started today. How’s my staff ROY?
Morton, Lester, Hamels, Severino, A. Wood, Godley, Fiers.
10-team h2h: Ks, Ws, ERA & WHIP
In a 10-teamer, I’d imagine you can replace Hamels with a better asset. Also keep a short leash on Fiers.
Meyer is on the DL now man
My man, knew I was forgetting something. Fixed.
Alex Meyer hit the DL yesterday, might want to change your streamer suggestions.
Thanks for catching that! Should have been Corbin against the Braves anyway (I didn’t realize he was owned in under 25% of leagues!)
I know you are concerned with Duffy’s decreased fastball velocity….do you see it getting better moving forward or would I be better off cutting bait for someone like Castillo or Cahill with his new team?
Start Castillo or Maeda today?
I’m leaning Castillo. Higher IPS and bigger upside. Yanks are one of the easier opponents he’s faced.
Simply want to point out that the strike zone Cole was dealing with yesterday was miniscule. He wasn’t missing his spots….he just wasn’t getting ANY calls which forced him to throw everything right in the strike zone. It was a horrible game called by the umpire. Not making excuses for the 4 walks…just pointing out that a good outing could have been great had it not been for the calls.
Kershaw owner in my league wants to trade. I’ve already locked in my bye for playoffs. What’s a fair price to pay? If he’ll take Gerritt Cole do we think Kershaw will be back in time for fantasy playoffs?
How is my rotation ROY?
13 team roto
6. Rich Hill
8. Jon Gray
DL- Aaron Sanchez
Looks solid to me!
better than mine…. :-(
Will a hitter list (ros) update be coming soon?
It’s just about to be published.
wow minutes later thanks!