Earlier this week, it was reported by C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic that the Cincinnati Reds had submitted a plan to Hamilton County and the State of Ohio regarding the potential admittance of fans into the Great American Ballpark before the season is done. Though specifics on the plan are scant, reports suggest that the Reds would be looking towards September or the playoffs for the return — if, of course, it happens at all.
The Reds are the first MLB team to make their fan-return plans known, in a climate in which COVID-19 cases have hardly dwindled in the United States. In the past several weeks, NFL teams that are now less than a month removed from the start of their season have begun to announce respective plans for fan attendance this coming Fall. Some teams, like the newly-minted Las Vegas Raiders and the Washington Football Team, have decided that fans will not be in attendance at all this coming season; others, including the Green Bay Packers, New York Jets, and New York Giants, have suggested empty stands for the first handful of games. But the common consensus among NFL teams seems to be greatly reduced seating capacity. Teams like the Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, and Jacksonville Jaguars have announced roughly 20-25 percent seating capacity limits, with ‘pod-based’ seating clusters being a popular sentiment.
#Cowboys owner Jerry Jones doesn’t have expectation on fan size yet says dealing with a moving target but suite capacity gives them extra control and 3 million square feet capacity. There will be pods of people and people will be spread apart. Won’t speculate on the numbers.
— Jane Slater (@SlaterNFL) August 12, 2020
These plans have met stiff resistance from many across the board. NFL players have also voiced concerns about the league’s seeming lack of a cohesive, unified approach to the virus, as NFL administration continues to defer to state and local authorities on the matter.
Baseball’s off-center timeline with regard to the other major North American sports confronting the pandemic, as it plays from late Spring to late Fall, has already inconvenienced the game. Things don’t forecast as being any better heading into next season, with American and International health authorities predicting late 2021 as the most likely date for a vaccine roll-out to help facilitate a return to normalcy. While MLB has factored lost gate revenues into this year’s collective bargaining ecosystem, it’s fair to say that a complete gate revenue loss for two years was not factored into the calculus.
This is all being played out against the backdrop of an expiring collective bargaining agreement, which further complicates matters. The NHL seemed to use the COVID shutdown as a means by which to bring about labor peace, with the league and its players agreeing on a four year CBA extension against their expiring deal. That deal included robust gate revenue protection in the event of increased disruption. MLB and its players would be smart to at least build some kind of a bridge deal for 2021 because of the increasingly likely event that gate revenue is once again severely negated by virus protocols heading into the 2021 season.
There are some who suggest that the current early-2021 COVID virus schedule (which is of course entirely and completely hypothetical) means that the league could, in theory, negotiate for some kind of early vaccine package. There are obviously massive ethical inconsistencies and issues with such a plan, not to mention supply, cost, and epidemiological considerations — which is all to suggest that the world’s current vaccine timeline likely doesn’t portend a full return to the ordinary even next season.
All of this means one thing: if the league is desperate to get some semblance of gate revenue back into its coffers, they are going to need to make uncomfortable decisions. Television numbers have been respectable across the board, which is a genuine relief in regard to revenue, but surviving on TV revenue beyond this season is impossible. The league will need to find a creative solution to a complex situation that will likely be met by consternation, no matter which direction it goes.
Ratings for the 29 US teams within. Overall, ratings up by +17%. Astros lead all. Mariners see biggest drop….. Early Regional Sports Network TV Ratings And Ad Sales For MLB Are Up Compared To 2019 via @ForbesSports https://t.co/SdtUGypE1B
— Maury Brown (@BizballMaury) August 6, 2020
It is unlikely that any current potential solution presents even a middleground reality, including the the pod seating idea popular through the NFL and other limited capacity schemes, as many health experts suggest such ideas are fallacious and irresponsible. It’s important to note that, in Europe, where COVID numbers have significantly declined in relation to those in the United States, national footballing (soccer) bodies have suggested a maximum of 30-percent seating capacity come fall, with schemes including tickets sold in blocks of six, limited stand-based seating, and even a cap of only 1,000 spectators. Undertaking any blueprint that eclipses the European protocols in the United States, at least in the current COVID climate, would be optically loathsome and dangerously foolish.
Once specific details of the Reds proposed plans are revealed, we will have a better sense of the framework that other MLB teams are likely to use as they move forward with gradually allowing fans to return to the stands. It is a bizarre time for everyone. No matter how much you appreciate the whimsical creativity that some teams are bringing to their cardboard cut-out analogues, it is in everyone’s best interest to see living, breathing humans back in the stands as soon as possible. But in the current and near-future COVID climate, however, doing so comes with an immense amount of unnecessary risk that should make clubs think twice — or more — before pushing the boundaries of common sense and collective responsibility.
Photo by Russell Lansford/Icon Sportswire
Great article, thank you!