In 2016, I was on board with a man named Patrick Corbin in the preseason and he tore out my heart. “Never again,” I told myself burning photos in the steel trash can in my backyard. You have one of those? Who doesn’t? But things have been suddenly different in 2017, culminating in last night’s 8.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks against the Astros. The Astros! Across Corbin’s last 12 starts, he’s boasting a 3.13 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 3.30 xFIP, 9.75 K/9, 2.25 BB/9 and just 28.5% hard contact. His scFIP over his last four starts is well below 3.00 and his IPS sits right at 6.0. These are fantastic numbers for someone that we laughed off when he showed any signs of improvement earlier in the year, and this includes a 7 ER blowup against the Cubs! If you look at his whiff rates since June 16th, it’s astonishing. After having just five games in 13 starts of a whiff rate above 8%, Corbin has held a 10%+ mark in all but one of his last twelve – good for a 13.8% mark. That’s elite. Pitch type isn’t the impetuts as he’s throwing his Slider and Changeup slightly more at the cost of his Fastball, but the biggest indication I see is his F-strike rate which has jumped from 61% to 67%, getting swings off the plate nearly 10 points more. I’m buying that Corbin can help you a ton down the stretch and he may still be out there – under 30% owned! – just be warned that in two starts he has to face the Dodgers + Coors. After that it’s smooth sailing, but take note if you are getting on the train.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
Luis Severino – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks. Aces gonna ace. I’m still worried about how many innings are left during Severino’s 2017 regular season and if you can sell still, I’d consider it. And Severino won yesterday’s Gallows Pole with 15 whiffs. Solid.
Chris Archer – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks. So I lowered Archer outside the Top 20 this week and took some flack for it. You might say this start is a “Ha ha Nick!” outing. Meh. The biggest problem wasn’t the K production – that’s the one thing he’s got going for himself – it’s the ERA that is still well north of 3.50…which it was here as well. Still, I’d be happy with this outing as it came with just five baserunners, I still can’t get back on board with Archer until the ER come down again.
Carlos Carrasco – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Aces gonna ace. See Archer, more like this even if it’s just 5 innings.
Jhoulys Chacin – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. It’s a big ugly with four walks, but you’re happy with this if you’re still Chacin this train. I find it hard to get on board for your playoffs right around the corner, but I have to admit he’s defying expectations.
Edwin Jackson – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. 2017 is such a crazy year that I picked EJax as my Call Boy and it worked. What times we live in. Next up are the Astros so…yeah. Streamer Record 64-45-14.
Ryan Merritt – 3.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. The main who’s wedding registry was filled to the brim by Indians fans last year was called in to pitch a double-header game. Sorry, he’s just a Cup of Schmo.
Aarom Slegers – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. That’s not a typo, that’s just a guy that you’re jealous has his full name for both his twitter and gmail accounts. Yes, this a Cup of Schmo as well.
Chris Rowley – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks. It’s just a Cup of Schmotastic day y’all.
Mike Fiers – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Hey look! Fiers is back! Ehhhh, not buying it after his super rough patch that came prior + nine baserunners in under six frames. IPS is a major issue for him and it’ll hurt more than help.
Lucas Sims – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. Lucas, this is boring. I know there is a The Sims joke in here somewhere, but I can’t find it. Just like your value. Ohhhhhh.
Kyle Gibson – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. You know, one of my good friends got all excited and called me saying “I finally own a Gibson!” I didn’t realize he meant Kyle. Why was he excited? That’s a really good question.
Tyson Ross – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 6 BBs, 2 Ks. Jeez Ross, this is absolutely atrocious. Here’s to hoping that you’ll take advantage of the off-season to be somewhat valuable come 2018.
Jeff Hoffman – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. Hoffman is struggling a ton and there is no way I’m investing in him this year. Not my favorite hypothetical add for next year either. Sidenote: Does anyone else miss the classic copy-pasta Colorado blurb? We’re getting closer and closer to having that back.
Jeff Samardzija – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. I feel like this is Samardzija’s destiny, to have a decent 1.20 WHIP with a good amount of strikeouts but an ERA well over 4.00. Just how it is for Loose Lips.
Jameson Taillon – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. Blegh. Taillon is better than this and the three walks tell the tale. Good to see him hit seven strikeouts though…? He gets the Dodgers next and that isn’t an auto sit, but it’ll make me think.
Reynaldo Lopez – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. A lot of guys got hurt today. Lopez was removed with soreness in his right side, which would explain why his command wasn’t nearly as good as I detailed for his first start of the year.
Aaron Nola – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Dude. COME ON. I was going to lift you above Nelson this week! I can’t really be upset since he’s been all kinds of dominant since the middle of June, but I never like my children getting hurt, you know?
Adam Wainwright – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. Waino’s velocity is down as the Cardinals are going to do some tests to see if he’s okay or not. Luke Weaver was called up and relieved Wainwright, who is the clear candidate to get some innings in his spot. I’m going to guess he gets the next start, which is San Diego, and I want all of that.
Scott Feldman – 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. Feldman Schmeldman. He also got hurt. This was a terrible day for Scott.
Steven Matz – 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. It’s really sad. I know Matz is better than this, but 2017 Matz isn’t. I think he’ll be a sleeper next year, believe it or not.
Jon Lester – 1.2 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. So Lester had another rough outing, this time Singled Out galore and also leaving the game injured as he’ll in all likelihood hit the 10-day DL with Mike Montgomery taking his place. Talk about frustrating as Lester looked to be hitting his stride for the final month of the year.
Chris Stratton vs. Philadelphia Phillies. I just finished up my second article over at FanGraphs talking about Stratton (it’s why I’m a bit behind today, sorry!) and I’m on board for the short term, especially against a weak team like the Phils. Okay, so Stratton isn’t getting this start and has been pushed back to Monday where he’ll face the Brewers…and now won’t get the Padres at all in his following turn. Not cool. In the meantime, today’s streamer is…oh man…Jeremy Hellickson against the Angels. I hate trusting the Devil and so should you, but he got a ton of whiffs with his Curveball twice in the three games so far for the Orioles. I’d also prefer Jordan Montgomery against the Red Sox if he’s available in your league.
Jered Eickhoff vs. San Francisco Giants – The clear choice here as Eickhoff has looked much like his 2016 self since returning from the DL.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Luis Castillo vs. Atlanta Braves – I’m amazed he’s still so unowned in leagues and obviously I’m starting him here. For those ahead of the game, Adam Conley against the Mets could work out okay, while I’d sit Dinelson Lamet against the Harper-less Nats.
Game of the Day
Andrew Heaney vs. Jeremy Hellickson – Heaney is back from TJS and while I don’t expect much from him, it’ll be interesting to see how he looks.
Are you going to be posting a grid like you have previously that shows a pitchers ROS matchups? I’ve found it very useful to plan my adds/drops for my 5th and 6th starting pitcher to help with my pitching stats the last 6 weeks of year while everyone else is focusing on football. Thanks
That’s the plan! Hoping to have that out next week for you guys.
Taillon was fine until it began pouring. It all came apart in the 5th when he couldn’t grip his curve. Lost control as the downpour came and the walks began. Raced to get out of the inning before the game was delayed. So, not as bad as appears.
Great point, totally slipped my mind that this was rain shortened.
Nick , you mentioned Conley for those that own Castillo, do u like anyone else Sunday or is Conley pretty much it?
Rest of season do you like Roark or Shark more? I see your rankings, but Shark has been very disappointing considering he has had some sweet matchups lately and has not faired well although he has a few Ws. Roark gets Houston next but has been doing better over the last month. Looking for W and QS here. Thanks