(Photo by Shelley Lipton/Icon Sportswire)
I think you guys expected me to lead with Beeks, but that turned out…poorly and I wanted to highlight the steps forward made by Jameson Taillon who went 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks against the Dodgers yesterday. Entering the game, Taillon ranked #1 among qualified pitchers in PH rate induced at a whopping 34.7% – dictating that a third of Taillon’s induced balls in play are near auto-outs. That’s crazy good, especially now that he’s been featuring a slider (thrown nearly 30% here!) that fits into his arsenal perfectly as a much-needed putaway offering. He has his curveball for strikes/weak outs, fastballs to control the zone, then this deadly slider to miss bats. It’s all there, it’s the third pitch I was hoping his changeup would be entering 2017 where I put Taillon at #21, and you should get pumped. Take advantage of this 5.40 ERA/1.80 WHIP outing and get him before he becomes the next big thing.
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Gerrit Cole – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Cole got the Rangers and did what aces do.
Miles Mikolas – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. You can’t stop Mikolas, who now has a 2.27 ERA and 0.96 WHIP – 1.64 ERA and 0.91 WHIP across his last nine, removing the 8 ER in his first two starts. 15 whiffs in this one as well (co-owner of the Gallows Pole!), which should be enough to make you not worry about the strikeouts moving forward so much. Sure, he’s not going to be a 25%+ guy, but that’s okay when you’re going to get solid ratios each time out. And yes, the Marlins are bad and should feel bad, so I won’t put so much stock in this.
Ryne Stanek – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Stanek, move aside as Austin Pruitt came on in the second frame and went 7.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BB, 6 Ks. Are you okay with this? I’m not okay with this.
Paul Blackburn – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Blackburn was called up and pushed Frankie Montas to Friday, making owners upset worldwide. Blackburn is a Cup of Schmo who was a huge TEEs last year (9.2% K rate in 58.2 innings. HOW?!). Don’t chase this.
Tyler Chatwood – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 7 BBs, 6 Ks. Even with six strikeouts, Chatwood still refused to have fewer walks than Ks and made it happen. This is so ridiculous. Seriously, it’s a 20.7% walk rate this year, which is higher than Mike Clevinger’s strikeout rate. What. The. Hell.
Daniel Hudson – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. The Dodgers scratched Dennis Santana at the last moment, turning this into a bullpen game…that turned out alright. Well, it took nine relievers to get through it, but a win is a win is a win, right?
Jaime Garcia – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. Don’t get worked up on this, it’s a 5.57 ERA and 1.56 WHIP after this one. Move on like we all did when Firefly was canceled.
David Hess – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. For disappointment this year, the Hess truck’s here! On the real, he’s a massive TEEs with a 3.07 ERA and 5.18 SIERA, rooted in a .239 BABIP, 95% LOB rate, and just a 13.6% K rate. Yikes.
Jose Berrios – 9.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks. Berrios pulled a Hercules and went the distance against the ChiSox as his curveball is as locked in as we’ve ever seen it. 41 CSW across 109 pitches is remarkable to say the least (15 whiffs for a co-Gallows Pole) and this is with just 9 changeups (1 CS, 0 Whiffs). Yeah, yeah, Blame it on the White Sox but let’s be real. Berrios is looking like the Top 25 guy we always wanted him to be. If only he could get consistency with that changeup…
Tyler Anderson – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Great rebound from Anderson as I think I’m ready to welcome him back to the Rocky Mountain Way. Play it wisely.
Matt Boyd – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. Hey, this is actually pretty impressive coming against the Sawx as he lowers his ERA to 3.20 with a 1.09 WHIP for the season. You’re probably wondering why I don’t like Boyd with those numbers and it’s pretty easy. Everything else is not in his favor. 19% K rate, 9.2% BB rate, .232 BABIP…those don’t point to longterm success. It makes for a 4.82 SIERA and while I don’t except that regression, a ~4.00 ERA sounds about right, and with that K rate…yeah, you get it.
Mike Leake – 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. It’s a game after his eight strikeout performance, so of course it’s a return to lame 3 Ks again. Duh. You’re setting yourself up for a Grave Mistake if you roll with Leake, though I won’t ignore the 2 ER or fewer in five of his last six starts. Hate trusting it longterm, but I’m no blind man.
Tyler Mahle – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. That’s two straight solid outings from Mahle after fumbling for three straight. I don’t love his secondary pitches, which makes me a bit hesitant to chase him, while this was hosting the Rockies who are terrible on the road after facing the Padres last time out. I’d be cautious trusting this.
Trevor Richards – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Come on, we want Alcantara, not this Cup of Schmo. GIVE US WHAT WE WANT.
Jason Hammel – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Jason is making it easy for all of us. Drop the Hammel.
Nick Pivetta – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. That fifth inning was a tough one to watch, from a dribbler-turned-double on a throwing error by Pivetta, to a trio of groundball singles that could have all been double plays if they all didn’t find the same hole to left field. Pivetta is still dope and I’d even say he’s a prime buy-low after two starts where an owner may feel like he needs to cash out now.
Cole Hamels – 7.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. It’s 35 CSW in 104 pitches as Hamels is feeling his changeup, though he faced the Astros, who swatted a pair of HRs to make this a tough evening for owners. It’s very likely he changes teams at the deadline, though I wonder what Hamels we’ll see when that happens. Still love his 12%+ whiff rate and think you should feel good owning him at the end of your staff through the year.
Jalen Beeks – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. This went as poorly as possible for Beeks as he couldn’t find a groove in the first frame. Welp, doesn’t look like Beeks will get another shot with Steven Wright taking Drew Pomeranz’s spot in the rotation. Til next time Beeks.
James Shields – 6.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. I don’t do “The WHERST” predictions anymore, though it would be hard not to pick Shields each day. However, this might be the first day he actually won it…? I’m not sure, either way, Jimmy Bucklers is just doing JB things.
Frankie Montas vs. Kansas City Royals – Not a big fan of this, but I can imagine Montas getting through this one without much damage as his start was pushed from yesterday to today. Brandon McCarthy vs. Los Angeles Dodgers also works.
Nick Kingham vs. Chicago Cubs – He’s owned in under 20% of leagues and I think his stuff is legit, even against the Cubs.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Marco Estrada vs. Baltimore Orioles – I know, this is kinda stupid. The only options I have otherwise are Nick Tropeano against the Twins (meh) and Clayton Richard against the Marlins (blegh). I know it’s been tough for Estrada thus far, but he looked improved last time out and the Orioles have Chris Davis so…
Game of the Day
Jacob deGrom vs. Masahiro Tanaka – deGrom is doing an audition for the Yanks (I kid, I kid) as I believe Tanaka can flex his whiffs and churn out a beautiful outing. Fulmer vs. Bauer also sounds incredibly fun.
Sit/Start says roll Fulmer out vs CLE. You still feeling that way today? I’ve got him in a QS league in a H2H and ratios are close. Feels sketchy.
I’m fine holding off on Fulmer today.
Nick – would you trade Carlos Santana for Mikolas? Team is below:
C – Realmuto
1 – C Santana
2 – A Rizzo
3 – A Rendon
SS – D Swanson
OF – E Rosario
OF – S Marte
OF – J Soler
Util – I Kinsler
Util – Y Alonso
BN – A Eaton
BN – M Betts
DL – D Murphy
DL – E Andrus
P – Verlander, Price, Berrios, Castillo, Weaver, Ohtani, Pivetta
RP – Kela, Familia, Strickland, Parker
I’d make that deal. You’re fine as you can slot Rizzo at 1b and Kinsler at 2B if you want.
Do you think Taillon ever figures out lefties though (he’s running a .363 wOBA vs L, .231 vs R)?
Seems like his problem isn’t a third pitch, but that he has no confidence to go up & in on lefties. Tried to go up and in to Pederson and it leaked over the plate for a home run. After that everything to lefties was either too far in to be competitive or nibbling on the outside corner. Granted the slider did help in that regard as he was able to steal a few strikes on backdoor sliders.
P.s. as a first-time commenter, wanted to say love the site; been reading the roundup every day since I found out about it last year.
Hi Nick! I always wait your SP ROUNDUP everyday! I have an question.
I am trying to buy Ray low. But I can’t estimate his value because he had been roughly before injury and success in last year may be fluke…. Do you think Ray is still solid Top 20??? I am going to pay Belt&Buehler for him even though I think it is pretty expensive.
I wouldn’t say Ray is Top 20. I’d say in the 30s at the moment if he were starting tomorrow.
Buehler + Belt is pretty fair, especially if it’s a H2H league.
What about streaming Montgomery vs Pit today?
Not my favorite as I don’t love Montgomery’s floor and the Pirates are a Top 10 offense.
Austin Meadows helps with their weakness vs. LHP.
They don’t seem to have a weakness vs. LHP. They have a higher team wRC+ vs. LHP than vs. RHP.
Huh, you’re 100% right!
Not sure where I got that from. Makes Monty a worse choice now.
You still a believer in Caleb Smith?
Hey Nick, who should I have less confidence in to make a turn around Castillo or Manaea, Castillo has at least had a couple of good outings prior to his last one this month, contemplating dropping one to add Eaton when he becomes eligible…my OF needs a boost, thanks in advance!
Ceiling = Castillo.
Floor = Manaea.
Appreciate it, think Im going with Manaea as the cut, I’ve got Yu on the DL and still have Carrasco, Weaver, Clevinger, E-Rod, Flaherty, Castillo, Milokas, and Martinez on my staff.
Weaver should get cut first!
Appreciate the follow up advice.
Lol Nick… assuming I ever moved on after Firefly was canceled
haha yeah I lol’ed at this one too. People are still complaining that show was cancelled and there are still loud cries for another movie or reboot.
Do you think this staff has what it takes in a 10 team league?
If I had to dump one guy, who would you say is maybe expendable?
Greinke, Price, Arrieta, Mikolas, Pivetta, ERod, Castillo, Heaney, TRoss
Castillo would be the drop.
Hi Nick! 10T, 5×5. Would you want Tailion ROS over Darvish, Archer, Nelson or Flaherty (all available in my league)?
100% over Nelson. Make that swap.
The Dodgers offense is absolutely on fire right now, especially lefties Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, and Max Muncy, not to mention Matt Kemp who is crushing everyone right now. I don’t think streaming McCarthy against them is a good recommendation.
I grabbed Leake off the free agent list (adds cost $1 from a $50 budget in my league) for his two starts against Tampa Bay, then just flipped him to a Mariners fan for $4.
I’m calling that a win.
Can you believe that I had Blackburn streamed against me twice yesterday! That is literally the worst player you could have ever streamed and he somehow managed a quality start on a 75 pitch count.
With Kershaw only able to play the 2 1/2 months of the season, would you trade him straight up for either Morton or Berrios and in what order? Or hold onto him.
What’s odd about Boyd is that as of a few days ago he had the best PH%-VH% in the majors. Shows how his BB/K% hurt him.