Here are today’s daily SP Streamer rankings.
Every day of the 2023 baseball season, I’ll be looking at today and tomorrow’s slate of scheduled starting pitchers and ranking their matchups for your fantasy baseball streams.
There’s a lot that goes into this and you can hang out with me on Playback.tv/pitcherlist to talk about the specific ranks as I make them every weekday morning from 10am – 12pm ET. If you have questions about these ranks, please ask during the morning Playback AMA. Those are my office hours as I generally don’t answer comments on the site.
There are four tiers to these rankings with 12-teamers in mind:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man. This includes “if I have them rostered, I’m starting them” pitchers.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good-not-elite pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm. These pitchers have a 50% or greater chance of performing well in my view.
Questionable Start – Think of this tier as “I don’t want to start these pitchers in a vacuum, but you could do worse.” Streamers found in this tier are not pitchers I’m targeting and are only if you are in dire need of one. To play it safe with streaming, just start the Probably Start streamers.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it. Seriously, these pitchers have a very slim chance of success or sometimes none at all.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results throughout the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, there are my streaming picks of the day, and please keep in mind that I am forced to pick a streamer every day. Those highlighted in Green are that day’s streaming pick in the second tier and I’d roll with them everywhere. Those in Yellow are in the third tier and should be okay if you’re searching for something on a given day, but I don’t recommend streaming unless you’re in need. Finally, those are Red are those I really don’t want to start (they are labeled as “Do Not Start”, after all) but have no other choice. Don’t stream these guys until you are truly desperate. A streaming pick is defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
(Opener) – Outlines that a pitcher is being opened for that day & the pitcher listed will follow the opener.
As I do my rankings, I thought it would be helpful to showcase a table of how we’re ranking offenses (in Alphabetical order):
I’m sure it’ll change through the year + there are differences to be made about teams vs. LHP or RHP, but it works as a general table that y’all should keep in mind.
Alright, let’s get to it.
This year, with our new daily fantasy baseball projections powered by PLV, I’ll be competing against PL Bot to pick the best streaming option each day.
To get access to PL Bot’s picks each day, sign up for PL Pro here.
The streaming record is determined by “Was this a productive game for 12-teamers if I started them?” Roughly a PQS with a Win and a strikeout per inning with a sub 1.20 WHIP. Close calls are decided by Playback chat.
Nick’s 2023 Streamer Record: 72-54
My pick yesterday: Adrian Houser vs COL
PL Bot’s 2023 Streamer Record: 65-61
PL Bot’s Pick yesterday: Mike Clevinger vs NYY
Want PL Bot’s pick today? Sign Up for PL Pro here.
With the new formatting for the notes, I’ve made the streaming pick of the day Underlined and Italicized.
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
James Paxton vs. KCR – He hasn’t earned his AGA label yet, but that was the Jays last time. The Royals – save for Bobby – are a team to destroy.
Aaron Nola vs. WSN – Nola has had the weirdest season. Don’t through the cutter, throw the sinker inside to RHB, and go heavy four-seamer and curve. You got this.
Kenta Maeda @ DET – The splitter has been so dang good as Maeda has soared since returning from the IL.
Clayton Kershaw vs. COL – I’m breaking Still ILL rules, especially when we’ve only seen one rehab start from Kershaw thus far. I’m wagering a five-inning cap, but that should be enough to secure the Win + production across the board. The floor seems awfully high against Rockie Road, too. What do you have to lose? He said, before destruction.
Bryce Elder @ PIT – Many are running away from Elder now, while I don’t think anything is new since the ASB. He was a Vargas Rule, hit the wall, and now is a Toby who you stream against poor offenses as Elder has a lovely Win chance. That means starting him against the Brewers, benching against the Cubs, and starting against the Pirates. IT’S EASY YA’LL. He said, AGAIN, before destruction.
Hunter Brown @ BAL – I dig what Brown is doing, though we’re not entirely sure if he’s in rhythm yet with the BSB. It’s the same park factor as pitching in Houston (left field is MASSIVELY different, but overall it’s the same) and the Baltimore offense is above-average but not elite. Totally understand if you’d rather wait one more start before leaning on Hunter’s approach as he hasn’t been the most consistent arm out there.
Dean Kremer vs. HOU – I trust Brown’s upside more and Houston is a tougher lineup to deal with, but if Kremer gets that cutter down and elevates effectively with his four-seamer, he could make this one work. I’d avoid this in most cases.
Zack Littell vs. STL – I don’t hate this nearly as much as you may think. There’s a chance he goes fewer than five frames, but the Cardinals are sputtering, Littell has a solid BSB working, and there’s a decent shot at a Win with Liberatore on the other side. I’m not circling this stream, but it’s a sneaky one for those in need.
Do Not Starts
Alek Manoah @ CLE – The slider command was as good as I’ve seen from Manoah in a long time…which makes me skeptical he can do it again and regain the skills with his fastball at the same time. Throw in a Guardians team that makes a lot of contact and you have a highly suspect streaming option.
Reese Olson vs. MIN – I haven’t seen Olson feature the changeup that once got me so excited, while the fastballs aren’t doing enough to generate quality strikes and outs. I do feel there will be a day it all comes together again, which has him above the atrocities below, for what it’s worth.
Patrick Corbin @ PHI – At least he has gone six frames of okayness?
Matthew Liberatore @ TBR – Liberatore’s velocity is down, the slider is blegh, and it’s Tampa. Absolutely not.
Alec Marsh (Opener) @ BOS – There was that wonderful eleven-strikeout game and sadly, it was far from exciting when we watched it closely. That ceiling is such a rarity.
Noah Syndergaard vs. TOR – He doesn’t strikeout batters and when the Jays make contact, it hurts.
Ty Blach @ LAD – It’s the Dodgers. It’s also Blach. It’s a terrible idea.
Bailey Falter vs. ATL – Atlanta is arguably worse than Coors right now.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Luis Castillo vs. BAL – Aces gonna ace. It’s Baltimore, but Castillo’s skills are too good.
Corbin Burnes @ CHW – It’s a fantastic matchup that makes a case for the #1 spot, but Burnes has fanned just 16 in his last three games as the cutter isn’t the ZOMG pitch it was in previous seasons. Hopefully it is here.
Blake Snell @ ARI – Aces gonna ace and yet, he’s walked so many and hasn’t found a consistent rhythm. It’s weird – he’s managed to produce regardless, which means we start him hoping for more than his floor.
Jesús Luzardo vs. NYY – Luzardo is a budding ace and had the skills against the Rangers. The Yankees are far easier to deal with.
Justin Verlander vs. LAA – You’re obviously starting Verlander here, though the strikeouts may not be there.
Tarik Skubal @ BOS – His four-seamer is too dang good to bench, especially with Boston sitting in the bottom five of wRC+ in the last two weeks.
Lance Lynn vs. COL – The Dodgers have Lynn throwing more four-seamers and fewer cutters, he’s in front of a better defense with a high Win chance against Rockie Road. Yes. PLEASE.
Andrew Abbott @ PIT – He’s struggled lately and I’m still throwing him out there against the Pirates. He’s not as bad as his last outing.
Nestor Cortes @ MIA – This may be a bit high given his limited pitch count of his last start, but the skills are too lovely to pass on against a middling Marlins team.
José Berríos vs. CHC – The Cubs are more dangerous than usual, though Berríos has been awfully steady.
Kyle Gibson @ SEA – It’s weird to put Gibson so high, but his SwStr rates have been fantastic and the Mariners feed into what Gibson does with breakers and changeups.
Cristopher Sánchez vs. MIN – Even with the disappointing outing, Sánchez’s pitches looked just like they normally do. Keep riding this.
Charlie Morton @ NYM – He’s a Cherry Bomb, but the strikeouts and Wins make it generally worthwhile to still start Morton. Frustrating, I know.
Jon Gray @ SFG – I’m going a little out on a limb here with this ranking. I’ve talked about Gray’s general volatility and his tendency to ramp back up to stardom over time. His slider is excellent and his four-seamer locations need to be improved slightly for him to start another brilliant stretch. This matchup in San Francisco is everything you want it to be.
Aaron Civale vs. CLE – He didn’t come through in his first start for the Rays, but we’re still throwing him out there. He’s a Toby against a mediocre offense with a good Win chance.
Johan Oviedo vs. CIN – It’s a decent matchup and even with my disdain for his heater, he’s come through more often than not.
Paul Blackburn @ WSN – Blackburn’s changeup and slider are looking lovely and the Nationals aren’t a team to fear…even if they refuse to strikeout.
Joan Adon vs. OAK – He flirted with perfection in his last outing and the Athletics are no strangers to floundering. Still, be careful as I don’t think Adon pitched that well.
Reid Detmers @ HOU – It’s too risky of a start as Detmers hasn’t been locked in for about a month now. Houston is scary, y’all.
Chris Sale vs. DET – I’d have Sale higher, but it’s a Still ILL and he’ll likely be heavily limited in his first start back. I’m keeping him on the IL in leagues where I’m not forced to activate him right away.
Do Not Starts
Michael Kopech vs. MIL – Kopech’s fastball was 93 mph, then 95 in his last one and I can’t get behind him. The Win chance is middling, the stuff isn’t exciting, and the Brewers are heating up. It’s not the right side of the Cherry Bomb.
Ross Stripling vs. TEX – Strip is pitching better, but you avoid the Rangers.
Ryne Nelson vs. SDP – I don’t have faith in Nelson’s secondaries.
Austin Gomber @ LAD – I looked at the rest of these arms and realized none of them are anything you’d actually consider. So fine, let’s go with the guy who has allowed 2 ER or fewer in seven of his last eight.
Xzavion Curry @ TBR – He’s not going to go 90% strikes on his slider again.
Adam Wainwright @ KCR – Wainwright’s mediocrity > Kansas City’s mediocrity.
Tylor Megill vs. ATL – It’s Atlanta and Megill isn’t doing anything special.
Dallas Keuchel @ PHI – Dallas. Please.
Javier Assad @ TOR – Assad shouldn’t go very long here.
Angel Zerpa vs. STL – He’s getting a start after tossing an out on Tuesday in relief and I have zero expectations for this.
Featured Image by Kurt Wasemiller (@KUWasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)