RankingHere are today’s daily SP Streamer rankings.
Every day of the 2023 baseball season, I’ll be looking at today and tomorrow’s slate of scheduled starting pitchers and ranking their matchups for your fantasy baseball streams.
There’s a lot that goes into this and you can hang out with me on Playback.tv/pitcherlist to talk about the specific ranks as I make them every weekday morning from 10am – 12pm ET. If you have questions about these ranks, please ask during the morning Playback AMA. Those are my office hours as I generally don’t answer comments on the site.
There are four tiers to these rankings with 12-teamers in mind:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man. This includes “if I have them rostered, I’m starting them” pitchers.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good-not-elite pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm. These pitchers have a 50% or greater chance of performing well in my view.
Questionable Start – Think of this tier as “I don’t want to start these pitchers in a vacuum, but you could do worse.” Streamers found in this tier are not pitchers I’m targeting and are only if you are in dire need of one. To play it safe with streaming, just start the Probably Start streamers.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it. Seriously, these pitchers have a very slim chance of success or sometimes none at all.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results throughout the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, there are my streaming picks of the day, and please keep in mind that I am forced to pick a streamer every day. Those highlighted in Green are that day’s streaming pick in the second tier and I’d roll with them everywhere. Those in Yellow are in the third tier and should be okay if you’re searching for something on a given day, but I don’t recommend streaming unless you’re in need. Finally, those are Red are those I really don’t want to start (they are labeled as “Do Not Start”, after all) but have no other choice. Don’t stream these guys until you are truly desperate. A streaming pick is defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
(Opener) – Outlines that a pitcher is being opened for that day & the pitcher listed will follow the opener.
As I do my rankings, I thought it would be helpful to showcase a table of how we’re ranking offenses (in Alphabetical order):
I’m sure it’ll change through the year + there are differences to be made about teams vs. LHP or RHP, but it works as a general table that y’all should keep in mind.
Alright, let’s get to it.
This year, with our new daily fantasy baseball projections powered by PLV, I’ll be competing against PL Bot to pick the best streaming option each day.
To get access to PL Bot’s picks each day, sign up for PL Pro here.
The streaming record is determined by “Was this a productive game for 12-teamers if I started them?” Roughly a PQS with a Win and a strikeout per inning with a sub 1.20 WHIP. Close calls are decided by Twitch chat.
Nick’s 2023 Streamer Record: 65-47
My pick yesterday: Gavin Williams vs. KCR
PL Bot’s 2023 Streamer Record: 56-56
PL Bot’s Pick yesterday: José Quintana vs. NYY
Want PL Bot’s pick today? Sign Up for PL Pro here.
With the new formatting for the notes, I’ve made the streaming pick of the day Underlined and Italicized.
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
UPDATE: Shohei Ohtani @ DET – Because of the Lucas Giolito trade, Chase Silseth gets ousted (Giolito takes his spot) and Shohei Ohtani pitches today to let Giolito pitch tomorrow. When Shohei starts, you start him.
Justin Steele @ STL – The Cardinals are hot, but I like where Steele is at the moment, even if it doesn’t come with the same potential ceiling as Cease.
Dylan Cease vs. CLE – Wait. Why isn’t Cease above Steele when you have him ranked higher against a better offense? First of all, is it better? The Guardians strike out as little as anyone in the league. Second, Cease didn’t have his slider last time and relied heavily on his four-seamer and curve to pick up the slack, which never happens. He’s in a more volatile state than Steele, making him a riskier play among strong options. I’ll always side floor over ceiling inside the top tier.
Kodai Senga vs. WSN – The strikeouts are flowing and I just hope the forkball does its thing.
Tanner Bibee @ CHW – Bibee looked as good as we’ve seen him all season in his last outing, commanding all four of his pitches. It was a sample size of one, though, and even against the White Sox, Bibee still needs to do his part.
Chase Silseth @ DET – Silseth came out of nowhere to feature a brand new “slider” that looked more like a curve with nearly four ticks down on velocity in exchange for excellent command down-and-gloveside with massive new vertical break. It dominated and with the Tigers on the docket, he’s definitely worth the chance to replicate. New pitches are stickier than new command.
UPDATE: Patrick Sandoval @ DET – It’s a great matchup, but Sandoval has struggled mightily with his change and slider consistency throughout the season.
UPDATE: Michael Lorenzen vs. LAA – Lorenzen has had the most beautiful season long schedule of any starter. He’s only faced two elite offenses (ATL and @COL) and I’m conflicted about the Angels. On one hand, they have a super high strikeout rate. On the other, they are 3rd in wRC+ across the last 14 days, even without Trout. With Lorenzen’s low strikeout ceiling, this is a ratio play and I’m not sure it’s worth it to chase.
Matt Manning vs. LAA – He’s been solid, and yet the Angels are near the top of wRC+ across the last two weeks. Be careful here as Manning doesn’t have anything elite inside his arsenal.
Do Not Starts
Miles Mikolas vs. CHC – I don’t care anymore about Mikolas. His ceiling is not worth the constant BABIP battles and damage he can do to you your week.
Josiah Gray @ NYM – There could be something here with Josiah in his fastball-less approach, but we haven’t seen a long track record of sliders and curves for strikes. Throw in the Mets offense heating up (sorry, Alvarez) and you have a clear avoid to me.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Gerrit Cole @ BAL – Aces gonna ace.
Shane McClanahan @ HOU – Aces gonna ace. That inning was weird.
Kevin Gausman vs. LAA – Aces gonna ace. He’s not gonna allow four homers again, right? Don’t worry about the velo dip last time out, he ramped it up and has had those days from time to time. The splitter got whiffs again, too, and that’s wonderful.
Max Scherzer vs. WSN – Aces gonna ace and it’s the Nationals.
Zack Wheeler @ PIT – The four-seamer is just so incredible and I really hope the secondaries do what they are supposed to do. I compare him to Alcantara often, but the real difference = Alcantara has the better change/slider, while Wheeler’s four-seamer is truly elite. Sandy’s has its moments and great locations but he does get beat on them more often inside the zone.
Logan Webb vs. BOS – He was shelacked last time out and the Red Sox are super hot lately and…I don’t care? Webb has been too good, this is not in Fenway, and we roll with it.
Sonny Gray @ KCR – It’s the Royals and that makes this a clear start, though I can’t overlook Sonny’s track record of volatility.
Joe Musgrove vs. TEX – The Rangers are still a strong offense against RHP and Musgrove (even with his AGA label) may have recently taken a small step back with his secondaries.
Logan Gilbert @ ARI – WHERE ARE THE FOUR-SEAMER AND SPLITTER WHIFFS. Sorry, please come back. It’s important to remember that pitchers like Gilbert don’t suddenly lose their skills in the middle of the season and never get them back. It’s an ebb-and-flow and you have to have faith that he’ll rebound in due time. Plenty of season left.
Bobby Miller vs. CIN – Miller has seemingly had a larger focus of getting his breakers over the plate at the cost of the perfect whiff pitch and I’m all for it. He could be a Wheeler/Sandy type in 2024, you know.
Jordan Montgomery vs. CHC – He’s not going to 0/16 changeup whiffs again. It’s likely the last outing as a Cardinal, too, and for his sake, let’s hope it’s a great one.
Grayson Rodriguez vs. NYY – HE GOT HIS CHANGEUP AND BREAKERS DOWN. It was awesome and we can’t bank on it repeating yet. It’s the Yankees
Lucas Giolito @ TOR – It’s his first start for the Angels, where I expect a jolt of adrenaline that should benefit your squads. It is the Jays, though, and I completely understand if you’d rather take a pass for a start.
Mitch Keller vs. PHI – Keller has been rough lately as the command-first approach is falling apart. I’m awfully concerned as I wrote about in the roundup and yet…I want to give him another chance? This may be silly and I should have him in the third tier. I just don’t want to quit the run just yet…Nah he belongs in tier 3.
Cristian Javier vs. TBR – The thing is, all of the Tier 3 starts are not great. Of course they aren’t – it’s the tier of guys I’d not start but are better than flat out “clear benches” – and Javier facing the weaker but still good Rays is not ideal. The slider is the major issue and you can even track his dramatic fall in strikeouts directly to his inability to get slider strikes. If that pitch gets back to a 60%+ strike rate, he has the four-seamer to make it work. Just needs that balance.
MacKenzie Gore @ NYM – He’s a Cherry Bomb through and through. Up to you.
Brady Singer vs. MIN – Another Cherry Bomb here, as you already know.
Kutter Crawford @ SFG – The Giants are terrible and if Crawford focuses on the slider/sweeper over the kutter (or maybe spots said kutter well), he could explode for a strong outing against the Giants.
Reese Olson @ MIA – Our streaming pick of the day is Olson as he gets the Marlins, a team that has been surprisingly average, if not better over the last month. I don’t love it, but the slider is great and if the changeup appears + fastballs get armside, he could cruise.
Braxton Garrett vs. DET – Probably the most shocking ranking here, but Braxton hasn’t been himself for four outings now, including starts against poor offenses. The command is gone and I’d rather wait for it to come back before starting him hoping it does.
Do Not Starts
JP Sears @ COL – It’s Coors. Super frustrating given the ease of rostering Sears and his general dependability, but you can’t do it.
Noah Syndergaard @ CHW – The Guardians traded for Thor and I have zero expectations that they can turn him into a stud overnight. I don’t like this.
Adrian Houser @ ATL – He just fanned ten and I don’t buy it for a second. Atlanta will get a second chance and I’m not willing to press my luck.
Tommy Henry vs. SEA – The slider hasn’t returned for whatever reason and without it going 20%+ of the time, Henry turns into a blegh streaming option.
Dane Dunning @ SDP – Dunning has had a ridiculous ERA on the year that we all know wasn’t meant to last.
Yonny Chirinos vs. MIL – He’s on Atlanta on now and I imagine they’ll let him go as long as he produces. Which may not be very long.
Brandon Williamson @ LAD – Williamson has actually looked more promising as of late with increased velocity, but this is the Dodgers and he’ll need his very best command to survive.
Touki Toussaint vs. CLE – I still enjoy seeing Touki appear out of nowhere this season, though he’s far from a fantasy relevant starting option.
Drew Smyly @ STL – Smyly hasn’t been a good play for a long time as his curveball just isn’t what it used to be. That said, his cutter and sinker command are better than the results suggest and if he’s finally able to keep that curve down, there’s hope.
Kyle Freeland vs. OAK – It’s Coors and this is a Still ILL for Freeland. Yup.
Featured Image by Kurt Wasemiller (@KUWasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)