Every day of the 2022 baseball season, I’ll be looking at today and tomorrow’s slate of scheduled starting pitchers and ranking their matchups for your fantasy baseball streams.
There’s a lot that goes into this and you can hang out with me on Twitch.tv/pitcherlist to talk about the specific ranks as I make them every weekday morning from 9am – 12am ET. If you have questions to these ranks, please ask during the morning Twitch AMA. Those are my office hours as I generally don’t answer comments on the site.
There are four tiers to these rankings with 12-teamers in mind:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.
Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results throughout the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, there are my streaming picks of the day, and please keep in mind that I am forced to pick a streamer every day. Those highlighted in Green are in the second tier and I’d roll with them everywhere. The most common are those in Yellow in the third tier and should be decent if you’re searching for something on a given day. Finally, those are Red are those I really don’t want to start (they are labeled as “Do Not Start”, after all) but have no other choice. Don’t stream these guys until you are truly desperate. A streaming pick is defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
As I do my rankings, I thought it would be helpful to showcase a table of how we’re ranking offenses. Dave Swan does an incredible job of showcasing future SP matchups every 2-3 weeks in this article, and I’ve elected to use his offense ranks to share with all of you here:
I’m sure it’ll change through the year + there are differences to be made about teams vs. LHP or RHP, but it’s a great general table that y’all should keep in mind.
Alright, let’s get to it.
2022 Streamer Record: 11-7
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- It’s a short Monday with just seven games on the docket, but it’s packed with aces. Put the top four any way you want,
I’m electing to put Carlos Rodón at #2 as his stuff is just too dang good right now.Rodón is now pitching on Tuesday with Sam Long getting the pearl on Monday. Don’t start him.
- The bottom three of the tier are a little shakier but I think you’re still starting them all, including José Berríos against Nathan Eovaldi. You slot them both in and hope for the best.
- In the second tier, we have our streaming pick of the day in Michael Lorenzen. I’d roll with him despite a rough outing last time out against the Astros as the Guardians should be an easier time. He’s a solid arm and I imagine his 13% rostership will go up over time.
- Framber Valdez joins Lorenzen as he squares up against the Rangers. After a strong debut to the season, Valdez has been all kinds of shaky on the mound. I’m still letting him fly, but I wish he were facing a weaker team than the Rangers.
- As for our questionables, we have Merrill Kelly who featured diminished velocity last time out and now gets the Dodgers. I love his new changeup, but I do wonder if this will be his first proper stumble of the year.
- Miles Mikolas and Kyle Gibson have each showcased themselves as decent options against weak teams. The Mets aren’t the weakest, this could still go well for Mikolas, while Gibson could feast on Rockie Road.
- In the final tier, I’d prefer to stay far away from Kyle Freeland and Dane Dunning. There just isn’t enough to chase while these offenses could make their days awfully short.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- Plenty of great start-and-forget players on Tuesday. For example, even against a tough Red Sox lineup, Kevin Gausman has proven himself in the early weeks of the season and shouldn’t come with hesitation.
- Logan Gilbert is an interesting one here as he faces the Rays. His box scores have been great so far, though I do have a touch of concern about the lack of development from his slider and changeup. Let’s hope they improve here against Tampa Bay.
- It’s a small second tier with Eduardo Rodriguez leading the way. He hasn’t soared this season as we’ve wanted him to and the Twins could help him get back on track – just don’t allow a longball to Byron Buxton, okay?
- The streaming pick of the day goes to Zach Eflin as he hosts Rockie Road in Philly. We know the kind of pitcher Eflin is, making for an opportunity for a solid day at the park for those only looking at the small sample of ERA.
- In the third tier, Tony Gonsolin sits atop the pack as he faces the Diamondbacks. He finally earned whiffs on the slider last time out, but failed to earn consistent strikes with it (sub 60% rate) as its consistency is still an issue. This start should go his way, but I have to acknowledge how he’s not quite the man we want him to be yet.
- I’ve had an adoration for Josiah Gray since his debut last year and I’ve seen firsthand his volatility start-to-start. Things have fallen his way thus far and it could continue against Miami, just be aware of the low floor as well.
- In the final tier, I can see many leaning on Mitch Keller for a two-start week, especially as he faces the struggling Brewers on Tuesday. Despite the cold lineup, Keller has showcased himself as a Cherry Bomb at best, with his secondaries severely lagging behind. There’s too much risk for me to stick him in my lineups.
- Another popular option has been Josh Fleming after three starts of a near 12 K/9 and 67% groundball rate…across fewer than eleven frames as he’s failed to go four innings for the Rays thus far. I’m not buying it.
- Someone to keep an eye on is Chris Paddack as his four-seamer was as good as I’ve seen in a long time during his last start. It’s too risky to buy into one outing from a guy like Paddack, but who knows, maybe the fastball has been fixed and can carry him in future outings.
Featured Image by Drew Wheeler (@drewisokay on Twitter)
I’m not sure Rocky Road can be a thing anymore. The team has the second highest .OPS overall, and the 9th highest OPS on the road. It’s still early, but the lineup looks considerably better than last year with the additions of Bryant and Grichuk, and Joe getting everyday playing time. Blackmon also looks better early.
I looked up Rockies road wOBA going back to 2010 and they have never been higher than 23rd in the league or posted a road wOBA over .302 in that time. I gave up after 2010.
Rocky Road is still a thing.
Rocky Road totally makes sense based on past performance. But this year might be different. The Rockies’ road wOBA is .319 so far in 2022. This isn’t great, but it still ranks 9th in baseball. It’s definitely too early to make any conclusions, but it’s worth watching.
Don’t start Mitch Keller? Don’t you know I like pain?!?!