Starting Pitcher Metrics Update!

(Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)

Welcome back – this week we return to the topic of starting pitchers.  Let’s just dive right into the updated rankings.  I’ve made one small change this time, showing how the players’ rank has changed since the last update, as opposed to how their pitcher score has changed.  Because the scores are cumulative, they are moving less as more time goes by, so using the ranks instead should just make it much easier to see who is making big jumps.

 

ALL QUALIFIED SP

Rank Name Prev Change ERA Pitcher Score PD Score Predicted K% Actual K% K% Difference BB% xSLG SLG-xSLG 1 Max Scherzer 1 0 2.06 105.8% 110.6% 35.2% 39.0% -3.8% 5.9% 0.326 -0.014 2 Jacob deGrom 2 0 1.51 105.4% 103.9% 31.2% 32.1% -0.9% 6.4% 0.288 -0.014 3 Chris Sale 5 +2 2.74 101.4% 101.6% 31.3% 34.6% -3.3% 6.7% 0.325 -0.009 4 Justin Verlander 3 -1 1.60 97.1% 90.9% 26.7% 32.0% -5.3% 5.2% 0.311 -0.022 5 Patrick Corbin 6 +1 3.48 94.6% 98.3% 29.7% 31.4% -1.8% 7.2% 0.394 -0.047 6 Trevor Bauer 11 +5 2.50 94.3% 92.4% 27.9% 31.2% -3.3% 8.0% 0.359 -0.043 7 Aaron Nola 8 +1 2.55 93.0% 85.1% 24.1% 25.3% -1.3% 7.0% 0.327 -0.024 8 Gerrit Cole 7 -1 2.59 92.9% 91.7% 28.4% 36.1% -7.8% 7.9% 0.373 -0.060 9 Charlie Morton 10 +1 2.94 92.3% 87.7% 26.9% 30.6% -3.8% 9.6% 0.354 0.006 10 Luis Severino 16 +6 2.09 91.6% 89.8% 26.4% 30.8% -4.4% 6.5% 0.377 -0.100 11 Sean Newcomb 12 +1 2.70 91.2% 79.0% 23.0% 24.9% -1.9% 11.0% 0.311 -0.009 12 Jon Gray 18 +6 5.89 91.1% 90.6% 28.7% 27.6% 1.1% 7.5% 0.389 0.056 13 Blake Snell 9 -4 2.48 91.1% 89.9% 27.9% 27.3% 0.6% 9.6% 0.385 -0.047 14 Eduardo Rodriguez [UR] [N/A] 3.59 90.7% 86.8% 24.8% 27.3% -2.5% 7.3% 0.369 -0.001 15 Carlos Carrasco 21 +6 4.24 90.6% 94.4% 27.4% 25.6% 1.8% 5.9% 0.422 -0.031 16 James Paxton 13 -3 3.44 89.9% 90.1% 26.4% 31.2% -4.9% 7.1% 0.402 -0.048 17 Masahiro Tanaka 15 -2 4.58 89.5% 98.1% 28.8% 24.8% 4.0% 6.5% 0.460 -0.019 18 Mike Clevinger 28 +10 3.00 89.3% 84.9% 24.3% 22.7% 1.6% 8.1% 0.376 -0.026 19 Jose Berrios 19 0 3.38 89.1% 87.7% 24.2% 25.5% -1.3% 4.7% 0.397 -0.035 20 Lance McCullers Jr. 14 -6 3.77 88.9% 88.8% 26.8% 24.9% 1.9% 9.4% 0.407 -0.031 21 CC Sabathia [UR] [N/A] 3.30 87.8% 82.1% 22.3% 18.8% 3.5% 6.3% 0.377 0.017 22 Kyle Gibson 20 -2 3.27 87.6% 83.9% 24.5% 23.8% 0.7% 10.6% 0.391 -0.058 23 Tyler Skaggs 30 +7 2.81 87.4% 84.1% 24.1% 25.9% -1.8% 7.2% 0.395 -0.021 24 Vince Velasquez 17 -7 4.82 87.0% 81.4% 24.8% 28.5% -3.7% 8.5% 0.383 0.047 25 Nick Pivetta 38 +13 4.08 86.6% 84.4% 24.5% 28.6% -4.2% 6.7% 0.408 -0.027 26 Mike Foltynewicz 40 +14 2.16 86.5% 75.0% 21.9% 28.9% -7.0% 10.2% 0.346 -0.032 27 Alex Wood 23 -4 4.22 86.1% 86.3% 23.3% 21.8% 1.5% 4.8% 0.427 -0.037 28 Dylan Bundy 24 -4 3.81 86.0% 95.1% 27.9% 26.8% 1.1% 7.2% 0.487 -0.040 29 Tyler Anderson 31 +2 4.52 85.7% 83.3% 24.2% 20.4% 3.8% 8.3% 0.413 0.062 30 Jameson Taillon 29 -1 4.03 85.7% 77.9% 20.6% 22.5% -1.9% 6.4% 0.377 0.020 31 Corey Kluber 26 -5 2.24 85.0% 80.8% 21.8% 26.9% -5.1% 2.8% 0.406 -0.066 32 Kevin Gausman 39 +7 4.48 84.8% 89.8% 26.2% 22.6% 3.6% 5.6% 0.468 0.014 33 Luis Castillo 22 -11 5.77 84.3% 94.1% 29.3% 22.4% 6.9% 9.1% 0.503 -0.011 34 J.A. Happ 34 0 3.48 84.2% 78.2% 22.5% 28.1% -5.7% 7.5% 0.399 -0.057 35 Rick Porcello 32 -3 3.70 84.0% 74.6% 19.2% 22.8% -3.7% 5.4% 0.377 -0.014 36 Tyson Ross 36 0 3.51 83.9% 79.0% 21.6% 24.0% -2.5% 8.5% 0.408 -0.045 37 Matt Boyd 33 -4 3.63 83.8% 73.7% 21.2% 19.6% 1.6% 9.5% 0.374 -0.041 38 Caleb Smith 27 -11 4.03 83.6% 82.5% 24.1% 27.2% -3.2% 10.0% 0.435 -0.054 39 Gio Gonzalez 25 -14 3.01 83.5% 76.6% 21.9% 22.5% -0.6% 9.8% 0.397 -0.015 40 Stephen Strasburg 37 -3 3.46 83.5% 85.1% 24.5% 29.1% -4.6% 5.8% 0.454 -0.055 41 Miles Mikolas 47 +6 2.69 83.1% 77.9% 18.8% 18.4% 0.4% 2.8% 0.411 -0.064 42 Chris Archer 42 0 4.24 83.0% 86.4% 26.4% 23.7% 2.7% 8.1% 0.469 -0.050 43 German Marquez 41 -2 5.20 82.6% 72.7% 20.7% 22.0% -1.3% 9.0% 0.383 0.080 44 Dallas Keuchel 48 +4 4.15 82.3% 74.3% 18.9% 18.2% 0.7% 5.9% 0.398 0.026 45 Clayton Richard 45 0 4.31 82.3% 78.0% 21.9% 19.5% 2.4% 8.1% 0.423 -0.027 46 Zack Greinke 35 -11 3.90 82.2% 87.2% 24.3% 25.6% -1.3% 5.1% 0.486 -0.032 47 Zack Wheeler [UR] [N/A] 4.82 82.1% 77.7% 21.1% 22.1% -1.1% 8.6% 0.423 -0.045 48 Cole Hamels 44 -4 3.41 82.1% 85.6% 24.7% 23.4% 1.3% 9.2% 0.476 -0.047 49 Michael Fulmer 49 0 4.13 81.5% 80.0% 21.6% 19.7% 1.9% 8.4% 0.447 -0.056 50 Kyle Freeland 50 0 3.59 81.2% 74.4% 19.7% 20.7% -1.1% 7.7% 0.413 -0.013 51 Zack Godley 62 +11 4.77 80.9% 82.2% 25.1% 22.5% 2.6% 11.0% 0.470 -0.040 52 Sonny Gray [UR] [N/A] 4.89 80.7% 74.8% 21.7% 20.2% 1.5% 10.1% 0.423 -0.012 53 Julio Teheran 63 +10 3.97 80.4% 78.9% 23.0% 21.1% 1.9% 11.3% 0.454 -0.026 54 Jhoulys Chacin 54 0 3.18 80.1% 72.2% 20.1% 18.0% 2.1% 9.6% 0.413 -0.067 55 Jake Arrieta 51 -4 3.33 79.8% 64.8% 14.8% 16.2% -1.5% 8.0% 0.368 -0.014 56 Jose Urena 55 -1 4.18 79.4% 74.0% 18.9% 19.4% -0.5% 5.3% 0.435 -0.045 57 Jake Odorizzi 56 -1 4.38 79.3% 82.2% 23.9% 22.7% 1.2% 10.3% 0.491 -0.011 58 David Price 61 +3 3.76 79.1% 71.0% 18.6% 23.8% -5.3% 9.0% 0.418 -0.054 59 Jose Quintana 64 +5 4.06 78.7% 70.7% 19.3% 22.8% -3.5% 10.9% 0.422 -0.021 60 Tanner Roark 43 -17 3.68 78.0% 73.1% 19.6% 19.9% -0.4% 8.0% 0.447 -0.060 61 Jakob Junis 46 -15 4.43 78.0% 77.3% 20.4% 21.9% -1.5% 5.5% 0.476 -0.018 62 Aaron Sanchez 66 +4 4.35 77.9% 76.4% 22.3% 18.8% 3.5% 12.5% 0.471 -0.088 63 Marco Gonzales 65 +2 3.80 77.9% 75.3% 18.5% 20.9% -2.5% 5.7% 0.464 -0.048 64 Luke Weaver 52 -12 4.69 77.6% 71.0% 20.0% 19.9% 0.0% 8.8% 0.439 -0.042 65 Kyle Hendricks 59 -6 3.55 77.4% 74.4% 19.7% 18.7% 0.9% 6.7% 0.464 -0.047 66 Jon Lester 60 -6 2.28 77.4% 74.8% 20.8% 20.6% 0.2% 8.4% 0.467 -0.112 67 James Shields 57 -10 4.56 77.2% 75.0% 20.8% 16.2% 4.6% 8.9% 0.471 -0.089 68 Sean Manaea 69 +1 3.56 77.0% 77.9% 20.5% 17.9% 2.6% 5.0% 0.493 -0.117 69 Chad Bettis 58 -11 4.65 76.8% 73.3% 20.2% 17.4% 2.8% 8.0% 0.464 -0.012 70 Tyler Mahle 68 -2 3.96 76.4% 73.8% 20.4% 21.3% -1.0% 8.8% 0.474 -0.018 71 Marco Estrada 73 +2 4.66 76.1% 76.7% 20.5% 18.8% 1.7% 6.2% 0.497 0.011 72 Michael Wacha 53 -19 3.24 76.0% 72.9% 21.2% 20.6% 0.6% 10.2% 0.472 -0.142 73 Reynaldo Lopez 67 -6 3.35 75.9% 70.5% 19.5% 16.3% 3.2% 9.7% 0.458 -0.084 74 Trevor Williams 71 -3 4.00 74.4% 65.3% 16.0% 17.3% -1.3% 8.3% 0.443 -0.054 75 Chase Anderson [UR] [N/A] 4.54 73.9% 66.7% 17.6% 17.1% 0.5% 9.5% 0.459 -0.044 76 Ivan Nova 76 0 4.42 73.7% 74.0% 19.1% 18.3% 0.8% 4.7% 0.511 -0.051 77 Felix Hernandez 74 -3 5.44 73.4% 69.1% 17.3% 18.9% -1.6% 8.4% 0.482 -0.039 78 Brandon McCarthy 72 -6 4.89 73.3% 65.1% 15.5% 18.8% -3.3% 6.6% 0.456 0.035 79 Danny Duffy 80 +1 5.55 71.5% 73.2% 20.2% 18.6% 1.6% 10.8% 0.534 -0.052 80 Chad Kuhl 79 -1 3.76 71.1% 71.3% 21.2% 22.1% -1.0% 8.8% 0.527 -0.089 81 Ian Kennedy [UR] [N/A] 5.31 70.6% 70.9% 17.7% 21.0% -3.3% 8.7% 0.531 -0.043 82 Chris Stratton 78 -4 4.22 70.1% 66.4% 18.0% 18.7% -0.7% 9.9% 0.508 -0.104 83 Jason Hammel 77 -6 4.98 69.6% 73.2% 18.6% 14.8% 3.8% 6.3% 0.560 -0.117 84 Sal Romano [UR] [N/A] 5.18 69.4% 62.2% 15.3% 15.9% -0.6% 9.9% 0.489 -0.031 85 Andrew Cashner 83 -2 4.98 69.2% 66.8% 17.4% 19.0% -1.6% 10.4% 0.523 0.010 86 Daniel Mengden 70 -16 4.06 68.4% 68.8% 16.7% 14.7% 2.0% 4.9% 0.547 -0.111 87 Mike Leake 82 -5 4.47 67.4% 68.9% 15.6% 14.2% 1.4% 5.4% 0.561 -0.104 88 Bartolo Colon [UR] [N/A] 5.11 60.3% 57.7% 11.4% 13.5% -2.2% 3.8% 0.580 -0.050

 

Not a whole lot has changed in the top 10 in the past two weeks.  Max Scherzer & Jacob DeGrom continue battling for the top spot, and are basically neck & neck.  Noah Syndergaard is injured and no longer qualifies, which sounds familiar.  Several pitchers have moved up one spot accordingly.  Chris Sale has been his usual fantastic self, getting his score back over 100.  Trevor Bauer has muscled his way all the way up to #6 from #11, which brings me to my first player blurb:

 

Trevor Bauer (SP, Cleveland Indians)

Yes, I covered Bauer two weeks ago, but he is pitching so phenomenally that he deserves the consecutive writeups.  He’s been even better since that update, as I mentioned moving all the way up to the #6 overall ranked pitcher.  Part of this is absolutely related to his schedule, having faced the Tigers once and White Sox twice since then.  Both of these teams are below average offensively, but not terrible.

Last time I gave a lot of credit to increasing the slider usage, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.  Actually his curveball deserves a lot of credit for his success, as well as just his complete arsenal in general.  For starters on that curveball, looking at the pitch movement numbers, it’s getting the best vertical drop this year of his whole career.  That curveball now ranks in the top 30 best in MLB in terms of pitch value.  His changeup is similarly ranked as well, and both pitches are getting excellent results this year (wRC+ of 52 and 69, respectively).  With the fastball and slider, he boasts four solidly above average pitches, with one elite pitch.  That slider continues to look simply amazing.  Overall it’s ranked 2nd in MLB in terms of value per 100 thrown.  It’s generating an wRC+ of -31, and he hasn’t walked a single batter on a slider.

 

Mike Clevinger (SP, Cleveland Indians)

Bauer’s teammate has also been pitching extremely well lately, jumping ten spots up the rankings and now cracking the top 20.  Clevinger is also a fan favorite here at PitcherList, and part of the reason I won my championship last year thanks to reading this site.  But looking at the plate discipline metrics from last year, at first glance I’m actually surprised that he is doing so well this year.  His metrics are down from last year, indicating a K-rate about five points lower. And his actual K% is…five points lower.  But it seems he’s made major improvements on the walk side, cutting his walk rate significantly, which is great. Normally I don’t even talk about Zone%, because it doesn’t correlate at all with anything.  But this is one case where it’s probably making a difference.  Clevinger’s Zone% is up almost ten points from last year, from 40 to 50.  For a change that large, there’s no way it’s not related to his falling walk and strikeout rates.  It seems like he’s made an adjustment to his approach, attacking hitters more aggressively and trusting his defense.

The main thing that stands out in his arsenal to me is that his fastball just isn’t great.  His breaking stuff is simply much better, and not just in the usual way that breaking pitches tend to have better numbers.  For example, on the fastball his K-BB% is just about 8 percent, whereas with the breaking pitches it’s about 30%.  Sure, fastballs are easier to command, and in his case it does have the highest Zone% of his pitches (barely).  But when he does miss, that’s an automatic ball, because no one ever swings.  His O-Swing% on fastballs is just 17%, again compared to the breaking pitches at over 40%.  In terms of results, the fastball allows an wRC+ of 143.  All his other pitches are under forty.  If there was one guy I’d pick to employ a Tanaka-like approach (i.e. minimal fastballs), it might be Clevinger.

 

Sean Newcomb (SP, Atlanta Braves)

Newcomb wasn’t a big riser or faller in this update, but is still deserving of some attention.  Having not followed him super closely this year, I certainly wouldn’t have guessed he was top 15 on anyone’s list.  But there’s no denying he’s been successful this year so far, by several measures.  His ERA currently sits at 2.7 for starters.  His strikeouts are up, his walks are down, and his contact management has been elite (xSLG is 3rd best in MLB).  But looking at the plate discipline metrics, there are some reasons to be concerned.  His K% discrepancy is small, so in a vacuum his K% is believable, but it’s always good to also compare the metrics to last year.  In Newcomb’s case, all three of the important metrics are down this year compared to last.  If all the metrics are pointing towards a worse K/BB ratio, but it’s actually improving, something doesn’t add up.  The differences in Contact% and SwStr% are fairly small, but his O-Swing% is down significantly, and is now 12th-worst in MLB. This has me especially worried about his ability to keep the walks down.  Most of his success is coming from the contact management side, which is also more prone to luck-based swings.  His BABIP is 70 points lower than last year, another indication that he could be in for some regression.  I would be looking to sell Newcomb if you can get good value in return.

 

Mike Foltynewicz (SP, Atlanta Braves)

I didn’t intend to write about teammates in pairs, but that seems to be what’s happening, so let’s roll with it.  Folty was the overall biggest riser in this update, jumping up 14 spots all the way to #26.  Like Newcomb, I wouldn’t have guessed he would be near the top of any rankings.  Let’s look at what he’s doing to get up that far.  For starters, it’s easy to see that his schedule has been a big part.  He had two starts since the last update, against the Padres and Mets.  The Padres are dreadful offensively and the Mets also below average.  He did extremely well to take advantage of those matchups, with 14 strikeouts in 10 innings.

Wondering why he’s so high on these rankings is not the only thing he has in common with his teammate.  Like Newcomb, Foltynewicz has a real problem with his O-Swing%.  His is even worse, actually the worst in all of MLB!  This seems like a glaring weakness that would prevent him from being considered an elite pitcher, or maybe even a good one.  Walks will continue to be an issue for him, no doubt.  But I’m almost more concerned about his strikeout rate, which is way out of whack with the metrics.  His K% discrepancy is second highest in MLB.  Pitchers simply don’t strike out 30% of batters with a SwStr% under ten.  He’s essentially the same pitcher he was last year, just getting a lot better luck with umpires and foul balls.  And that’s not the only red flag in his profile…his BABIP is 40 points under his career number.  When all the signs are pointing the same direction, well, this one is an easy “SELL” for me.

 

Zack Godley (SP, Arizona D-Backs)

I’ve written about Godley’s teammate Patrick Corbin so many times it almost counts as a continuation of the theme.  Godley has risen ten spots since the last update, which is great, because overall he has been incredibly disappointing for a lot of owners this year, coming nowhere near last year’s stellar performance.  As for that breakout year, for the record, the metrics totally supported it.  Actually, they suggested even more strikeout upside, predicting a 30% K-rate compared to his actual 26%.  So I was certainly on board with his high draft value this year; it didn’t seem like a one-hit-wonder at all.

But this year everything is just down.  Five points of O-Swing%.  Three points of Contact%.  Two points of SwStr%.  This is not normal for a healthy 28-year-old pitcher.  When something like that happens, I like to look at two things for an explanation – pitch mix, and velocity.  Pitch mix does not seem to be a big factor, as it’s fairly close to last year all around.  But looking at the velocity is a bit startling.  He is clearly down a couple ticks from last year, across all his pitches.  That is not good.  It could help explain though, why all of his pitches this year are getting poorer results.  Last year his curveball was dominant, and his other three pitches average-ish.  This year his curveball is just “good”, and all the other pitches are getting crushed.

I do see some signs of hope for Godley.  For starters, his schedule has been pretty brutal so far.  He’s drawn the Dodgers and Giants six times, compared to the the Padres and Rockies just twice, which is about as bad as your luck can get in the NL West.  His one matchup against the Rockies was in Coors, of course.  But other than the schedule, there is also the strikeout rate.  His Contact% would suggest a strikeout rate closer to 30 than 20, indicating some pretty poor luck on foul balls.  Overall the metrics do point towards a more useful pitcher than he has been so far this year, and the last couple starts are hopeful as well.  Unfortunately it’s hard to say precisely how much of his struggle is due to the reduced velocity, versus the schedule.  Overall I would definitely consider buying, for the right price, but not expecting last year’s performance.

 

10 IP Minimum (Non-Qualified)

Name Pitcher Score PD Score IP ERA Predicted K% Actual K% K% Difference BB% xSLG SLG-xSLG Matt Strahm 105.7% 105.0% 10.0 0.90 31.8% 35.1% -3.4% 2.7% 0.290 -0.061 Freddy Peralta 101.8% 97.6% 15.2 2.30 31.2% 41.0% -9.8% 13.1% 0.293 -0.104 Domingo German 99.2% 104.9% 46.0 5.09 33.3% 28.7% 4.6% 7.5% 0.376 0.020 Noah Syndergaard 98.8% 99.1% 64.2 3.06 30.6% 28.3% 2.3% 4.8% 0.343 0.021 Shohei Ohtani 96.9% 99.1% 49.1 3.10 34.0% 30.5% 3.5% 10.0% 0.368 -0.048 Ross Stripling 94.7% 83.4% 57.0 2.37 22.5% 30.4% -7.9% 2.2% 0.293 0.059 Johnny Cueto 89.8% 76.2% 32.0 0.84 22.3% 22.2% 0.0% 5.1% 0.311 -0.105 Carlos Martinez 89.3% 74.4% 62.2 2.73 20.7% 22.3% -1.7% 14.4% 0.306 -0.029 Trevor Cahill 89.2% 92.2% 48.2 2.77 28.5% 25.0% 3.5% 5.9% 0.425 -0.072 John Gant 89.2% 90.3% 15.0 6.00 26.8% 29.2% -2.4% 6.2% 0.413 -0.057 Mike Montgomery 89.1% 88.7% 29.2 1.21 23.6% 16.7% 6.9% 6.1% 0.403 -0.155 Kenta Maeda 89.0% 89.3% 60.0 3.90 26.7% 26.3% 0.4% 9.9% 0.409 -0.011 Walker Buehler 88.8% 72.4% 51.1 2.63 19.1% 26.7% -7.6% 5.5% 0.298 -0.025 Robbie Ray 88.7% 92.1% 27.2 4.88 30.1% 36.3% -6.3% 13.7% 0.432 -0.013 Jordan Montgomery 87.5% 79.9% 27.1 3.62 21.5% 19.8% 1.7% 10.3% 0.366 -0.010 Jack Flaherty 87.5% 82.0% 50.2 2.66 25.7% 26.7% -1.1% 6.8% 0.380 -0.038 Hyun-Jin Ryu 87.1% 79.3% 29.2 2.12 24.8% 31.3% -6.5% 8.7% 0.367 -0.059 Wilmer Font 86.5% 72.2% 10.1 2.61 21.7% 25.0% -3.4% 11.4% 0.328 0.005 Garrett Richards 86.3% 84.0% 68.1 3.42 25.8% 26.8% -1.0% 11.0% 0.410 -0.050 Nick Kingham 85.4% 85.6% 35.1 3.82 25.0% 24.3% 0.7% 4.9% 0.432 -0.066 Seth Lugo 85.3% 77.8% 18.0 4.00 22.4% 29.9% -7.6% 3.9% 0.381 -0.030 Andrew Heaney 85.2% 83.7% 71.2 3.64 24.1% 23.5% 0.6% 7.2% 0.422 -0.043 Joe Musgrove 84.7% 77.5% 29.1 3.68 20.3% 23.0% -2.7% 4.8% 0.387 -0.008 Clayton Kershaw 84.0% 82.2% 49.0 2.76 23.1% 26.5% -3.5% 5.5% 0.428 -0.036 Sam Gaviglio 83.8% 81.0% 31.2 3.98 20.9% 21.5% -0.7% 7.4% 0.422 0.017 Steven Wright 82.8% 68.2% 20.2 0.44 20.0% 19.0% 0.9% 10.1% 0.350 -0.179 Yu Darvish 82.7% 78.2% 40.0 4.95 24.1% 27.2% -3.2% 11.7% 0.418 0.007 Brad Keller 82.5% 75.4% 18.2 3.38 21.0% 13.4% 7.6% 11.0% 0.403 -0.070 Anibal Sanchez 82.4% 75.1% 39.1 2.75 19.1% 23.6% -4.5% 7.6% 0.402 -0.025 Lance Lynn 82.4% 76.7% 73.2 4.64 21.9% 22.1% -0.2% 13.9% 0.413 -0.006 Wade LeBlanc 82.3% 80.7% 48.0 2.06 19.6% 21.3% -1.8% 5.9% 0.441 -0.085 Fernando Romero 81.5% 81.0% 45.1 4.17 23.5% 20.0% 3.5% 8.5% 0.453 -0.034 Caleb Ferguson 80.9% 78.9% 10.2 7.59 26.7% 25.0% 1.7% 12.5% 0.447 -0.047 Zach Eflin 80.7% 75.1% 44.2 3.43 22.0% 24.9% -2.9% 6.0% 0.425 -0.050 Dylan Covey 80.6% 66.8% 40.1 2.90 17.1% 19.9% -2.9% 9.1% 0.370 -0.054 Paul Blackburn 80.4% 66.7% 12.1 8.03 14.4% 12.7% 1.7% 7.3% 0.372 0.108 Jeremy Hellickson 80.0% 77.3% 43.1 2.28 20.5% 20.7% -0.3% 3.7% 0.448 -0.087 Hector Velazquez 80.0% 91.4% 10.2 2.53 23.4% 22.7% 0.6% 4.6% 0.543 -0.091 Nick Tropeano 79.8% 83.7% 54.0 4.83 25.5% 19.6% 5.9% 8.9% 0.494 -0.019 Michael Soroka 79.8% 78.7% 25.2 3.51 22.0% 18.6% 3.4% 6.2% 0.461 -0.048 Joey Lucchesi 79.2% 76.8% 49.0 3.86 22.7% 25.0% -2.3% 8.3% 0.456 -0.033 Austin Bibens-Dirkx 79.2% 84.6% 17.2 4.58 21.5% 14.3% 7.2% 2.6% 0.508 -0.018 Brent Suter 79.2% 77.6% 68.2 4.46 20.2% 19.3% 0.9% 5.2% 0.462 -0.014 Junior Guerra 78.9% 74.7% 71.2 2.89 21.3% 22.9% -1.6% 8.9% 0.446 -0.091 Jordan Lyles 78.8% 72.6% 47.0 4.79 17.9% 19.9% -2.1% 5.5% 0.433 0.051 Blaine Hardy 78.3% 70.9% 39.2 3.40 16.9% 16.4% 0.5% 4.4% 0.428 -0.036 Yonny Chirinos 78.3% 75.9% 22.2 4.37 20.1% 21.0% -0.9% 8.0% 0.462 -0.043 Ryan Yarbrough 78.3% 70.7% 20.2 5.23 18.4% 19.1% -0.7% 6.7% 0.427 -0.002 Tyler Chatwood 78.3% 65.8% 68.1 3.95 19.1% 20.3% -1.3% 20.0% 0.395 -0.064 Jason Vargas 77.9% 82.2% 37.2 8.60 22.9% 17.8% 5.1% 7.8% 0.509 0.104 Carlos Rodon 77.8% 74.1% 16.1 4.41 20.3% 21.9% -1.7% 9.6% 0.457 -0.108 Nathan Eovaldi 77.5% 70.4% 29.1 4.91 16.0% 18.6% -2.6% 2.7% 0.436 -0.060 Jaime Barria 77.4% 86.3% 45.1 3.57 24.5% 19.7% 4.8% 5.3% 0.543 -0.118 Dereck Rodriguez 77.3% 75.9% 20.1 4.87 22.1% 19.4% 2.7% 5.4% 0.476 -0.024 Jordan Zimmermann 77.1% 79.1% 36.1 5.20 20.7% 23.4% -2.7% 5.8% 0.500 -0.066 Frankie Montas 76.8% 61.5% 33.2 2.41 15.6% 15.1% 0.5% 7.2% 0.386 0.002 Wei-Yin Chen 76.3% 67.9% 45.2 5.91 17.1% 15.8% 1.3% 11.0% 0.436 0.078 Francisco Liriano 75.7% 80.7% 57.2 3.90 24.3% 19.2% 5.1% 12.4% 0.529 -0.156 Trevor Richards 75.6% 69.2% 38.0 5.45 17.8% 18.9% -1.2% 10.7% 0.453 -0.011 Steven Matz 75.5% 61.5% 65.1 3.31 17.8% 20.9% -3.1% 10.3% 0.403 0.003 Mike Fiers 74.4% 71.9% 72.2 4.09 18.3% 17.3% 1.0% 4.8% 0.487 0.008 Luis Perdomo 74.4% 68.5% 14.0 8.36 21.2% 22.1% -0.9% 11.7% 0.465 0.058 Matt Moore 74.1% 75.2% 55.0 8.02 20.1% 14.7% 5.4% 9.3% 0.513 0.056 Chris Bassitt 73.5% 64.7% 11.0 2.45 13.0% 18.4% -5.4% 4.1% 0.452 -0.141 Andrew Triggs 73.0% 75.9% 41.1 5.23 21.4% 23.6% -2.3% 9.9% 0.533 -0.120 Adam Wainwright 72.9% 55.9% 18.0 4.00 14.0% 17.1% -3.1% 15.9% 0.400 0.035 Derek Holland 72.6% 70.6% 78.1 4.48 19.8% 21.5% -1.7% 9.4% 0.503 -0.049 Zach Davies 72.3% 69.1% 43.0 5.23 18.7% 16.3% 2.4% 9.0% 0.497 -0.003 Brandon Woodruff 72.2% 65.8% 15.2 6.32 19.2% 18.1% 1.1% 12.5% 0.476 -0.083 Drew Pomeranz 72.1% 65.2% 37.0 6.81 16.7% 20.8% -4.2% 12.1% 0.473 0.070 Eric Lauer 71.8% 61.5% 51.0 5.47 15.8% 19.5% -3.8% 10.8% 0.452 0.048 Mike Minor 71.4% 76.7% 72.1 5.35 20.9% 20.0% 0.9% 5.5% 0.559 -0.047 Andrew Suarez 71.4% 64.7% 59.1 4.70 15.6% 23.5% -7.9% 4.9% 0.480 -0.042 Shane Bieber 71.3% 71.1% 11.1 3.97 18.9% 25.5% -6.7% 3.9% 0.524 0.068 Marcus Stroman 71.2% 72.9% 37.1 7.71 21.2% 18.2% 3.0% 10.2% 0.537 -0.082 Clay Buchholz 71.1% 70.6% 33.2 2.94 17.6% 19.1% -1.6% 5.2% 0.523 -0.123 Jaime Garcia 71.0% 68.1% 61.1 6.16 19.0% 19.9% -1.0% 11.0% 0.508 0.004 Ty Blach 70.9% 60.7% 60.2 4.90 14.7% 11.1% 3.6% 8.5% 0.460 -0.047 David Hess 70.5% 68.2% 37.1 4.82 16.2% 12.5% 3.7% 9.4% 0.514 -0.017 Jake Faria 70.4% 68.1% 47.2 5.48 19.0% 18.2% 0.7% 10.8% 0.516 -0.093 Dillon Peters 70.0% 62.0% 24.2 5.84 16.3% 14.4% 1.9% 11.7% 0.480 -0.011 Jeff Samardzija 69.9% 68.8% 35.2 6.56 17.7% 15.7% 2.0% 13.9% 0.527 -0.084 Matt Harvey 69.7% 63.9% 56.1 5.43 16.7% 17.8% -1.2% 5.8% 0.496 -0.012 Elieser Hernandez 69.2% 70.2% 18.0 4.50 21.0% 12.5% 8.5% 4.2% 0.546 0.042 Eric Skoglund 69.1% 70.3% 49.2 6.70 17.3% 18.0% -0.7% 6.5% 0.548 -0.018 Lucas Giolito 68.8% 62.3% 71.1 7.19 17.8% 12.1% 5.7% 13.6% 0.498 -0.036 Matt Wisler 68.7% 73.6% 17.1 3.63 20.7% 18.6% 2.1% 7.1% 0.575 -0.160 Madison Bumgarner 68.6% 65.0% 17.1 4.67 15.6% 11.8% 3.8% 6.6% 0.519 0.010 Brandon Finnegan 68.0% 63.0% 20.2 7.40 16.0% 13.6% 2.4% 14.6% 0.513 0.040 Anthony DeSclafani 67.6% 64.0% 15.2 4.60 16.4% 22.7% -6.3% 6.1% 0.526 -0.001 Ben Lively 67.2% 62.8% 23.2 6.85 17.9% 19.1% -1.3% 8.7% 0.522 0.023 Kendall Graveman 67.0% 67.6% 34.1 7.60 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 8.2% 0.557 -0.015 Dan Straily 66.7% 77.3% 46.0 4.89 22.1% 19.1% 3.0% 12.3% 0.626 -0.129 Erick Fedde 66.5% 68.1% 16.0 5.63 18.0% 19.4% -1.5% 6.0% 0.568 -0.052 Doug Fister 66.4% 55.9% 66.0 4.50 11.8% 13.8% -2.0% 6.6% 0.487 -0.031 Alex Cobb 65.8% 60.6% 63.0 7.14 13.9% 14.8% -0.9% 5.5% 0.526 0.063 Daniel Gossett 64.9% 66.2% 24.1 5.18 15.5% 11.8% 3.7% 7.8% 0.576 -0.081 Brett Anderson 64.9% 67.1% 15.1 7.63 18.0% 11.1% 6.9% 8.3% 0.582 0.009 Joe Biagini 64.9% 65.9% 18.2 7.71 16.7% 14.4% 2.3% 10.0% 0.574 -0.080 Steven Brault 63.8% 69.2% 26.0 5.54 20.0% 13.4% 6.6% 12.5% 0.611 -0.213 Rich Hill 63.4% 61.1% 30.2 4.99 15.8% 22.5% -6.8% 10.9% 0.562 -0.070 Taijuan Walker 62.7% 57.6% 13.0 3.46 15.1% 16.1% -1.1% 8.9% 0.548 -0.156 Adam Plutko 62.5% 70.4% 23.0 5.09 18.0% 17.7% 0.3% 8.3% 0.636 -0.031 Homer Bailey 62.1% 64.2% 62.0 6.68 15.8% 13.0% 2.8% 8.2% 0.600 -0.036 Hector Santiago 61.1% 62.0% 32.1 6.12 16.5% 15.9% 0.6% 15.2% 0.598 -0.027 Jarlin Garcia 61.0% 65.1% 33.0 3.55 18.0% 16.7% 1.3% 9.9% 0.620 -0.222 Bryan Mitchell 59.3% 47.1% 32.0 6.47 11.8% 10.4% 1.4% 16.9% 0.523 -0.027 Ryan Carpenter 57.4% 58.5% 12.0 6.75 14.9% 10.7% 4.2% 3.6% 0.624 -0.047 Matt Koch 56.9% 60.7% 69.2 4.52 13.5% 12.1% 1.4% 5.9% 0.646 -0.140 Miguel Gonzalez 56.8% 66.3% 12.1 12.41 15.5% 7.6% 7.9% 9.1% 0.684 0.099 Josh Tomlin 55.9% 73.8% 30.0 8.10 19.1% 12.9% 6.2% 3.6% 0.746 -0.019 Carson Fulmer 55.3% 56.5% 31.0 8.13 14.6% 16.6% -2.1% 15.3% 0.640 -0.136 Martin Perez 55.1% 51.8% 22.1 9.67 11.6% 10.9% 0.6% 10.1% 0.610 0.060 Chris Tillman 51.6% 49.4% 26.2 10.46 11.9% 9.5% 2.4% 12.4% 0.641 0.011