Starting Pitcher Metrics Update!

(Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)

Welcome back – this week we return to the topic of starting pitchers.  Let’s just dive right into the updated rankings.  I’ve made one small change this time, showing how the players’ rank has changed since the last update, as opposed to how their pitcher score has changed.  Because the scores are cumulative, they are moving less as more time goes by, so using the ranks instead should just make it much easier to see who is making big jumps.

 

ALL QUALIFIED SP

Rank Name Prev Change ERA Pitcher Score PD Score Predicted K% Actual K% K% Difference BB% xSLG SLG-xSLG
1 Max Scherzer 1 0 2.06 105.8% 110.6% 35.2% 39.0% -3.8% 5.9% 0.326 -0.014
2 Jacob deGrom 2 0 1.51 105.4% 103.9% 31.2% 32.1% -0.9% 6.4% 0.288 -0.014
3 Chris Sale 5 +2 2.74 101.4% 101.6% 31.3% 34.6% -3.3% 6.7% 0.325 -0.009
4 Justin Verlander 3 -1 1.60 97.1% 90.9% 26.7% 32.0% -5.3% 5.2% 0.311 -0.022
5 Patrick Corbin 6 +1 3.48 94.6% 98.3% 29.7% 31.4% -1.8% 7.2% 0.394 -0.047
6 Trevor Bauer 11 +5 2.50 94.3% 92.4% 27.9% 31.2% -3.3% 8.0% 0.359 -0.043
7 Aaron Nola 8 +1 2.55 93.0% 85.1% 24.1% 25.3% -1.3% 7.0% 0.327 -0.024
8 Gerrit Cole 7 -1 2.59 92.9% 91.7% 28.4% 36.1% -7.8% 7.9% 0.373 -0.060
9 Charlie Morton 10 +1 2.94 92.3% 87.7% 26.9% 30.6% -3.8% 9.6% 0.354 0.006
10 Luis Severino 16 +6 2.09 91.6% 89.8% 26.4% 30.8% -4.4% 6.5% 0.377 -0.100
11 Sean Newcomb 12 +1 2.70 91.2% 79.0% 23.0% 24.9% -1.9% 11.0% 0.311 -0.009
12 Jon Gray 18 +6 5.89 91.1% 90.6% 28.7% 27.6% 1.1% 7.5% 0.389 0.056
13 Blake Snell 9 -4 2.48 91.1% 89.9% 27.9% 27.3% 0.6% 9.6% 0.385 -0.047
14 Eduardo Rodriguez [UR] [N/A] 3.59 90.7% 86.8% 24.8% 27.3% -2.5% 7.3% 0.369 -0.001
15 Carlos Carrasco 21 +6 4.24 90.6% 94.4% 27.4% 25.6% 1.8% 5.9% 0.422 -0.031
16 James Paxton 13 -3 3.44 89.9% 90.1% 26.4% 31.2% -4.9% 7.1% 0.402 -0.048
17 Masahiro Tanaka 15 -2 4.58 89.5% 98.1% 28.8% 24.8% 4.0% 6.5% 0.460 -0.019
18 Mike Clevinger 28 +10 3.00 89.3% 84.9% 24.3% 22.7% 1.6% 8.1% 0.376 -0.026
19 Jose Berrios 19 0 3.38 89.1% 87.7% 24.2% 25.5% -1.3% 4.7% 0.397 -0.035
20 Lance McCullers Jr. 14 -6 3.77 88.9% 88.8% 26.8% 24.9% 1.9% 9.4% 0.407 -0.031
21 CC Sabathia [UR] [N/A] 3.30 87.8% 82.1% 22.3% 18.8% 3.5% 6.3% 0.377 0.017
22 Kyle Gibson 20 -2 3.27 87.6% 83.9% 24.5% 23.8% 0.7% 10.6% 0.391 -0.058
23 Tyler Skaggs 30 +7 2.81 87.4% 84.1% 24.1% 25.9% -1.8% 7.2% 0.395 -0.021
24 Vince Velasquez 17 -7 4.82 87.0% 81.4% 24.8% 28.5% -3.7% 8.5% 0.383 0.047
25 Nick Pivetta 38 +13 4.08 86.6% 84.4% 24.5% 28.6% -4.2% 6.7% 0.408 -0.027
26 Mike Foltynewicz 40 +14 2.16 86.5% 75.0% 21.9% 28.9% -7.0% 10.2% 0.346 -0.032
27 Alex Wood 23 -4 4.22 86.1% 86.3% 23.3% 21.8% 1.5% 4.8% 0.427 -0.037
28 Dylan Bundy 24 -4 3.81 86.0% 95.1% 27.9% 26.8% 1.1% 7.2% 0.487 -0.040
29 Tyler Anderson 31 +2 4.52 85.7% 83.3% 24.2% 20.4% 3.8% 8.3% 0.413 0.062
30 Jameson Taillon 29 -1 4.03 85.7% 77.9% 20.6% 22.5% -1.9% 6.4% 0.377 0.020
31 Corey Kluber 26 -5 2.24 85.0% 80.8% 21.8% 26.9% -5.1% 2.8% 0.406 -0.066
32 Kevin Gausman 39 +7 4.48 84.8% 89.8% 26.2% 22.6% 3.6% 5.6% 0.468 0.014
33 Luis Castillo 22 -11 5.77 84.3% 94.1% 29.3% 22.4% 6.9% 9.1% 0.503 -0.011
34 J.A. Happ 34 0 3.48 84.2% 78.2% 22.5% 28.1% -5.7% 7.5% 0.399 -0.057
35 Rick Porcello 32 -3 3.70 84.0% 74.6% 19.2% 22.8% -3.7% 5.4% 0.377 -0.014
36 Tyson Ross 36 0 3.51 83.9% 79.0% 21.6% 24.0% -2.5% 8.5% 0.408 -0.045
37 Matt Boyd 33 -4 3.63 83.8% 73.7% 21.2% 19.6% 1.6% 9.5% 0.374 -0.041
38 Caleb Smith 27 -11 4.03 83.6% 82.5% 24.1% 27.2% -3.2% 10.0% 0.435 -0.054
39 Gio Gonzalez 25 -14 3.01 83.5% 76.6% 21.9% 22.5% -0.6% 9.8% 0.397 -0.015
40 Stephen Strasburg 37 -3 3.46 83.5% 85.1% 24.5% 29.1% -4.6% 5.8% 0.454 -0.055
41 Miles Mikolas 47 +6 2.69 83.1% 77.9% 18.8% 18.4% 0.4% 2.8% 0.411 -0.064
42 Chris Archer 42 0 4.24 83.0% 86.4% 26.4% 23.7% 2.7% 8.1% 0.469 -0.050
43 German Marquez 41 -2 5.20 82.6% 72.7% 20.7% 22.0% -1.3% 9.0% 0.383 0.080
44 Dallas Keuchel 48 +4 4.15 82.3% 74.3% 18.9% 18.2% 0.7% 5.9% 0.398 0.026
45 Clayton Richard 45 0 4.31 82.3% 78.0% 21.9% 19.5% 2.4% 8.1% 0.423 -0.027
46 Zack Greinke 35 -11 3.90 82.2% 87.2% 24.3% 25.6% -1.3% 5.1% 0.486 -0.032
47 Zack Wheeler [UR] [N/A] 4.82 82.1% 77.7% 21.1% 22.1% -1.1% 8.6% 0.423 -0.045
48 Cole Hamels 44 -4 3.41 82.1% 85.6% 24.7% 23.4% 1.3% 9.2% 0.476 -0.047
49 Michael Fulmer 49 0 4.13 81.5% 80.0% 21.6% 19.7% 1.9% 8.4% 0.447 -0.056
50 Kyle Freeland 50 0 3.59 81.2% 74.4% 19.7% 20.7% -1.1% 7.7% 0.413 -0.013
51 Zack Godley 62 +11 4.77 80.9% 82.2% 25.1% 22.5% 2.6% 11.0% 0.470 -0.040
52 Sonny Gray [UR] [N/A] 4.89 80.7% 74.8% 21.7% 20.2% 1.5% 10.1% 0.423 -0.012
53 Julio Teheran 63 +10 3.97 80.4% 78.9% 23.0% 21.1% 1.9% 11.3% 0.454 -0.026
54 Jhoulys Chacin 54 0 3.18 80.1% 72.2% 20.1% 18.0% 2.1% 9.6% 0.413 -0.067
55 Jake Arrieta 51 -4 3.33 79.8% 64.8% 14.8% 16.2% -1.5% 8.0% 0.368 -0.014
56 Jose Urena 55 -1 4.18 79.4% 74.0% 18.9% 19.4% -0.5% 5.3% 0.435 -0.045
57 Jake Odorizzi 56 -1 4.38 79.3% 82.2% 23.9% 22.7% 1.2% 10.3% 0.491 -0.011
58 David Price 61 +3 3.76 79.1% 71.0% 18.6% 23.8% -5.3% 9.0% 0.418 -0.054
59 Jose Quintana 64 +5 4.06 78.7% 70.7% 19.3% 22.8% -3.5% 10.9% 0.422 -0.021
60 Tanner Roark 43 -17 3.68 78.0% 73.1% 19.6% 19.9% -0.4% 8.0% 0.447 -0.060
61 Jakob Junis 46 -15 4.43 78.0% 77.3% 20.4% 21.9% -1.5% 5.5% 0.476 -0.018
62 Aaron Sanchez 66 +4 4.35 77.9% 76.4% 22.3% 18.8% 3.5% 12.5% 0.471 -0.088
63 Marco Gonzales 65 +2 3.80 77.9% 75.3% 18.5% 20.9% -2.5% 5.7% 0.464 -0.048
64 Luke Weaver 52 -12 4.69 77.6% 71.0% 20.0% 19.9% 0.0% 8.8% 0.439 -0.042
65 Kyle Hendricks 59 -6 3.55 77.4% 74.4% 19.7% 18.7% 0.9% 6.7% 0.464 -0.047
66 Jon Lester 60 -6 2.28 77.4% 74.8% 20.8% 20.6% 0.2% 8.4% 0.467 -0.112
67 James Shields 57 -10 4.56 77.2% 75.0% 20.8% 16.2% 4.6% 8.9% 0.471 -0.089
68 Sean Manaea 69 +1 3.56 77.0% 77.9% 20.5% 17.9% 2.6% 5.0% 0.493 -0.117
69 Chad Bettis 58 -11 4.65 76.8% 73.3% 20.2% 17.4% 2.8% 8.0% 0.464 -0.012
70 Tyler Mahle 68 -2 3.96 76.4% 73.8% 20.4% 21.3% -1.0% 8.8% 0.474 -0.018
71 Marco Estrada 73 +2 4.66 76.1% 76.7% 20.5% 18.8% 1.7% 6.2% 0.497 0.011
72 Michael Wacha 53 -19 3.24 76.0% 72.9% 21.2% 20.6% 0.6% 10.2% 0.472 -0.142
73 Reynaldo Lopez 67 -6 3.35 75.9% 70.5% 19.5% 16.3% 3.2% 9.7% 0.458 -0.084
74 Trevor Williams 71 -3 4.00 74.4% 65.3% 16.0% 17.3% -1.3% 8.3% 0.443 -0.054
75 Chase Anderson [UR] [N/A] 4.54 73.9% 66.7% 17.6% 17.1% 0.5% 9.5% 0.459 -0.044
76 Ivan Nova 76 0 4.42 73.7% 74.0% 19.1% 18.3% 0.8% 4.7% 0.511 -0.051
77 Felix Hernandez 74 -3 5.44 73.4% 69.1% 17.3% 18.9% -1.6% 8.4% 0.482 -0.039
78 Brandon McCarthy 72 -6 4.89 73.3% 65.1% 15.5% 18.8% -3.3% 6.6% 0.456 0.035
79 Danny Duffy 80 +1 5.55 71.5% 73.2% 20.2% 18.6% 1.6% 10.8% 0.534 -0.052
80 Chad Kuhl 79 -1 3.76 71.1% 71.3% 21.2% 22.1% -1.0% 8.8% 0.527 -0.089
81 Ian Kennedy [UR] [N/A] 5.31 70.6% 70.9% 17.7% 21.0% -3.3% 8.7% 0.531 -0.043
82 Chris Stratton 78 -4 4.22 70.1% 66.4% 18.0% 18.7% -0.7% 9.9% 0.508 -0.104
83 Jason Hammel 77 -6 4.98 69.6% 73.2% 18.6% 14.8% 3.8% 6.3% 0.560 -0.117
84 Sal Romano [UR] [N/A] 5.18 69.4% 62.2% 15.3% 15.9% -0.6% 9.9% 0.489 -0.031
85 Andrew Cashner 83 -2 4.98 69.2% 66.8% 17.4% 19.0% -1.6% 10.4% 0.523 0.010
86 Daniel Mengden 70 -16 4.06 68.4% 68.8% 16.7% 14.7% 2.0% 4.9% 0.547 -0.111
87 Mike Leake 82 -5 4.47 67.4% 68.9% 15.6% 14.2% 1.4% 5.4% 0.561 -0.104
88 Bartolo Colon [UR] [N/A] 5.11 60.3% 57.7% 11.4% 13.5% -2.2% 3.8% 0.580 -0.050

 

Not a whole lot has changed in the top 10 in the past two weeks.  Max Scherzer & Jacob DeGrom continue battling for the top spot, and are basically neck & neck.  Noah Syndergaard is injured and no longer qualifies, which sounds familiar.  Several pitchers have moved up one spot accordingly.  Chris Sale has been his usual fantastic self, getting his score back over 100.  Trevor Bauer has muscled his way all the way up to #6 from #11, which brings me to my first player blurb:

 

Trevor Bauer (SP, Cleveland Indians)

Yes, I covered Bauer two weeks ago, but he is pitching so phenomenally that he deserves the consecutive writeups.  He’s been even better since that update, as I mentioned moving all the way up to the #6 overall ranked pitcher.  Part of this is absolutely related to his schedule, having faced the Tigers once and White Sox twice since then.  Both of these teams are below average offensively, but not terrible.

Last time I gave a lot of credit to increasing the slider usage, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.  Actually his curveball deserves a lot of credit for his success, as well as just his complete arsenal in general.  For starters on that curveball, looking at the pitch movement numbers, it’s getting the best vertical drop this year of his whole career.  That curveball now ranks in the top 30 best in MLB in terms of pitch value.  His changeup is similarly ranked as well, and both pitches are getting excellent results this year (wRC+ of 52 and 69, respectively).  With the fastball and slider, he boasts four solidly above average pitches, with one elite pitch.  That slider continues to look simply amazing.  Overall it’s ranked 2nd in MLB in terms of value per 100 thrown.  It’s generating an wRC+ of -31, and he hasn’t walked a single batter on a slider.

 

Mike Clevinger (SP, Cleveland Indians)

Bauer’s teammate has also been pitching extremely well lately, jumping ten spots up the rankings and now cracking the top 20.  Clevinger is also a fan favorite here at PitcherList, and part of the reason I won my championship last year thanks to reading this site.  But looking at the plate discipline metrics from last year, at first glance I’m actually surprised that he is doing so well this year.  His metrics are down from last year, indicating a K-rate about five points lower. And his actual K% is…five points lower.  But it seems he’s made major improvements on the walk side, cutting his walk rate significantly, which is great. Normally I don’t even talk about Zone%, because it doesn’t correlate at all with anything.  But this is one case where it’s probably making a difference.  Clevinger’s Zone% is up almost ten points from last year, from 40 to 50.  For a change that large, there’s no way it’s not related to his falling walk and strikeout rates.  It seems like he’s made an adjustment to his approach, attacking hitters more aggressively and trusting his defense.

The main thing that stands out in his arsenal to me is that his fastball just isn’t great.  His breaking stuff is simply much better, and not just in the usual way that breaking pitches tend to have better numbers.  For example, on the fastball his K-BB% is just about 8 percent, whereas with the breaking pitches it’s about 30%.  Sure, fastballs are easier to command, and in his case it does have the highest Zone% of his pitches (barely).  But when he does miss, that’s an automatic ball, because no one ever swings.  His O-Swing% on fastballs is just 17%, again compared to the breaking pitches at over 40%.  In terms of results, the fastball allows an wRC+ of 143.  All his other pitches are under forty.  If there was one guy I’d pick to employ a Tanaka-like approach (i.e. minimal fastballs), it might be Clevinger.

 

Sean Newcomb (SP, Atlanta Braves)

Newcomb wasn’t a big riser or faller in this update, but is still deserving of some attention.  Having not followed him super closely this year, I certainly wouldn’t have guessed he was top 15 on anyone’s list.  But there’s no denying he’s been successful this year so far, by several measures.  His ERA currently sits at 2.7 for starters.  His strikeouts are up, his walks are down, and his contact management has been elite (xSLG is 3rd best in MLB).  But looking at the plate discipline metrics, there are some reasons to be concerned.  His K% discrepancy is small, so in a vacuum his K% is believable, but it’s always good to also compare the metrics to last year.  In Newcomb’s case, all three of the important metrics are down this year compared to last.  If all the metrics are pointing towards a worse K/BB ratio, but it’s actually improving, something doesn’t add up.  The differences in Contact% and SwStr% are fairly small, but his O-Swing% is down significantly, and is now 12th-worst in MLB. This has me especially worried about his ability to keep the walks down.  Most of his success is coming from the contact management side, which is also more prone to luck-based swings.  His BABIP is 70 points lower than last year, another indication that he could be in for some regression.  I would be looking to sell Newcomb if you can get good value in return.

 

Mike Foltynewicz (SP, Atlanta Braves)

I didn’t intend to write about teammates in pairs, but that seems to be what’s happening, so let’s roll with it.  Folty was the overall biggest riser in this update, jumping up 14 spots all the way to #26.  Like Newcomb, I wouldn’t have guessed he would be near the top of any rankings.  Let’s look at what he’s doing to get up that far.  For starters, it’s easy to see that his schedule has been a big part.  He had two starts since the last update, against the Padres and Mets.  The Padres are dreadful offensively and the Mets also below average.  He did extremely well to take advantage of those matchups, with 14 strikeouts in 10 innings.

Wondering why he’s so high on these rankings is not the only thing he has in common with his teammate.  Like Newcomb, Foltynewicz has a real problem with his O-Swing%.  His is even worse, actually the worst in all of MLB!  This seems like a glaring weakness that would prevent him from being considered an elite pitcher, or maybe even a good one.  Walks will continue to be an issue for him, no doubt.  But I’m almost more concerned about his strikeout rate, which is way out of whack with the metrics.  His K% discrepancy is second highest in MLB.  Pitchers simply don’t strike out 30% of batters with a SwStr% under ten.  He’s essentially the same pitcher he was last year, just getting a lot better luck with umpires and foul balls.  And that’s not the only red flag in his profile…his BABIP is 40 points under his career number.  When all the signs are pointing the same direction, well, this one is an easy “SELL” for me.

 

Zack Godley (SP, Arizona D-Backs)

I’ve written about Godley’s teammate Patrick Corbin so many times it almost counts as a continuation of the theme.  Godley has risen ten spots since the last update, which is great, because overall he has been incredibly disappointing for a lot of owners this year, coming nowhere near last year’s stellar performance.  As for that breakout year, for the record, the metrics totally supported it.  Actually, they suggested even more strikeout upside, predicting a 30% K-rate compared to his actual 26%.  So I was certainly on board with his high draft value this year; it didn’t seem like a one-hit-wonder at all.

But this year everything is just down.  Five points of O-Swing%.  Three points of Contact%.  Two points of SwStr%.  This is not normal for a healthy 28-year-old pitcher.  When something like that happens, I like to look at two things for an explanation – pitch mix, and velocity.  Pitch mix does not seem to be a big factor, as it’s fairly close to last year all around.  But looking at the velocity is a bit startling.  He is clearly down a couple ticks from last year, across all his pitches.  That is not good.  It could help explain though, why all of his pitches this year are getting poorer results.  Last year his curveball was dominant, and his other three pitches average-ish.  This year his curveball is just “good”, and all the other pitches are getting crushed.

I do see some signs of hope for Godley.  For starters, his schedule has been pretty brutal so far.  He’s drawn the Dodgers and Giants six times, compared to the the Padres and Rockies just twice, which is about as bad as your luck can get in the NL West.  His one matchup against the Rockies was in Coors, of course.  But other than the schedule, there is also the strikeout rate.  His Contact% would suggest a strikeout rate closer to 30 than 20, indicating some pretty poor luck on foul balls.  Overall the metrics do point towards a more useful pitcher than he has been so far this year, and the last couple starts are hopeful as well.  Unfortunately it’s hard to say precisely how much of his struggle is due to the reduced velocity, versus the schedule.  Overall I would definitely consider buying, for the right price, but not expecting last year’s performance.

 

10 IP Minimum (Non-Qualified)

Name Pitcher Score PD Score IP ERA Predicted K% Actual K% K% Difference BB% xSLG SLG-xSLG
Matt Strahm 105.7% 105.0% 10.0 0.90 31.8% 35.1% -3.4% 2.7% 0.290 -0.061
Freddy Peralta 101.8% 97.6% 15.2 2.30 31.2% 41.0% -9.8% 13.1% 0.293 -0.104
Domingo German 99.2% 104.9% 46.0 5.09 33.3% 28.7% 4.6% 7.5% 0.376 0.020
Noah Syndergaard 98.8% 99.1% 64.2 3.06 30.6% 28.3% 2.3% 4.8% 0.343 0.021
Shohei Ohtani 96.9% 99.1% 49.1 3.10 34.0% 30.5% 3.5% 10.0% 0.368 -0.048
Ross Stripling 94.7% 83.4% 57.0 2.37 22.5% 30.4% -7.9% 2.2% 0.293 0.059
Johnny Cueto 89.8% 76.2% 32.0 0.84 22.3% 22.2% 0.0% 5.1% 0.311 -0.105
Carlos Martinez 89.3% 74.4% 62.2 2.73 20.7% 22.3% -1.7% 14.4% 0.306 -0.029
Trevor Cahill 89.2% 92.2% 48.2 2.77 28.5% 25.0% 3.5% 5.9% 0.425 -0.072
John Gant 89.2% 90.3% 15.0 6.00 26.8% 29.2% -2.4% 6.2% 0.413 -0.057
Mike Montgomery 89.1% 88.7% 29.2 1.21 23.6% 16.7% 6.9% 6.1% 0.403 -0.155
Kenta Maeda 89.0% 89.3% 60.0 3.90 26.7% 26.3% 0.4% 9.9% 0.409 -0.011
Walker Buehler 88.8% 72.4% 51.1 2.63 19.1% 26.7% -7.6% 5.5% 0.298 -0.025
Robbie Ray 88.7% 92.1% 27.2 4.88 30.1% 36.3% -6.3% 13.7% 0.432 -0.013
Jordan Montgomery 87.5% 79.9% 27.1 3.62 21.5% 19.8% 1.7% 10.3% 0.366 -0.010
Jack Flaherty 87.5% 82.0% 50.2 2.66 25.7% 26.7% -1.1% 6.8% 0.380 -0.038
Hyun-Jin Ryu 87.1% 79.3% 29.2 2.12 24.8% 31.3% -6.5% 8.7% 0.367 -0.059
Wilmer Font 86.5% 72.2% 10.1 2.61 21.7% 25.0% -3.4% 11.4% 0.328 0.005
Garrett Richards 86.3% 84.0% 68.1 3.42 25.8% 26.8% -1.0% 11.0% 0.410 -0.050
Nick Kingham 85.4% 85.6% 35.1 3.82 25.0% 24.3% 0.7% 4.9% 0.432 -0.066
Seth Lugo 85.3% 77.8% 18.0 4.00 22.4% 29.9% -7.6% 3.9% 0.381 -0.030
Andrew Heaney 85.2% 83.7% 71.2 3.64 24.1% 23.5% 0.6% 7.2% 0.422 -0.043
Joe Musgrove 84.7% 77.5% 29.1 3.68 20.3% 23.0% -2.7% 4.8% 0.387 -0.008
Clayton Kershaw 84.0% 82.2% 49.0 2.76 23.1% 26.5% -3.5% 5.5% 0.428 -0.036
Sam Gaviglio 83.8% 81.0% 31.2 3.98 20.9% 21.5% -0.7% 7.4% 0.422 0.017
Steven Wright 82.8% 68.2% 20.2 0.44 20.0% 19.0% 0.9% 10.1% 0.350 -0.179
Yu Darvish 82.7% 78.2% 40.0 4.95 24.1% 27.2% -3.2% 11.7% 0.418 0.007
Brad Keller 82.5% 75.4% 18.2 3.38 21.0% 13.4% 7.6% 11.0% 0.403 -0.070
Anibal Sanchez 82.4% 75.1% 39.1 2.75 19.1% 23.6% -4.5% 7.6% 0.402 -0.025
Lance Lynn 82.4% 76.7% 73.2 4.64 21.9% 22.1% -0.2% 13.9% 0.413 -0.006
Wade LeBlanc 82.3% 80.7% 48.0 2.06 19.6% 21.3% -1.8% 5.9% 0.441 -0.085
Fernando Romero 81.5% 81.0% 45.1 4.17 23.5% 20.0% 3.5% 8.5% 0.453 -0.034
Caleb Ferguson 80.9% 78.9% 10.2 7.59 26.7% 25.0% 1.7% 12.5% 0.447 -0.047
Zach Eflin 80.7% 75.1% 44.2 3.43 22.0% 24.9% -2.9% 6.0% 0.425 -0.050
Dylan Covey 80.6% 66.8% 40.1 2.90 17.1% 19.9% -2.9% 9.1% 0.370 -0.054
Paul Blackburn 80.4% 66.7% 12.1 8.03 14.4% 12.7% 1.7% 7.3% 0.372 0.108
Jeremy Hellickson 80.0% 77.3% 43.1 2.28 20.5% 20.7% -0.3% 3.7% 0.448 -0.087
Hector Velazquez 80.0% 91.4% 10.2 2.53 23.4% 22.7% 0.6% 4.6% 0.543 -0.091
Nick Tropeano 79.8% 83.7% 54.0 4.83 25.5% 19.6% 5.9% 8.9% 0.494 -0.019
Michael Soroka 79.8% 78.7% 25.2 3.51 22.0% 18.6% 3.4% 6.2% 0.461 -0.048
Joey Lucchesi 79.2% 76.8% 49.0 3.86 22.7% 25.0% -2.3% 8.3% 0.456 -0.033
Austin Bibens-Dirkx 79.2% 84.6% 17.2 4.58 21.5% 14.3% 7.2% 2.6% 0.508 -0.018
Brent Suter 79.2% 77.6% 68.2 4.46 20.2% 19.3% 0.9% 5.2% 0.462 -0.014
Junior Guerra 78.9% 74.7% 71.2 2.89 21.3% 22.9% -1.6% 8.9% 0.446 -0.091
Jordan Lyles 78.8% 72.6% 47.0 4.79 17.9% 19.9% -2.1% 5.5% 0.433 0.051
Blaine Hardy 78.3% 70.9% 39.2 3.40 16.9% 16.4% 0.5% 4.4% 0.428 -0.036
Yonny Chirinos 78.3% 75.9% 22.2 4.37 20.1% 21.0% -0.9% 8.0% 0.462 -0.043
Ryan Yarbrough 78.3% 70.7% 20.2 5.23 18.4% 19.1% -0.7% 6.7% 0.427 -0.002
Tyler Chatwood 78.3% 65.8% 68.1 3.95 19.1% 20.3% -1.3% 20.0% 0.395 -0.064
Jason Vargas 77.9% 82.2% 37.2 8.60 22.9% 17.8% 5.1% 7.8% 0.509 0.104
Carlos Rodon 77.8% 74.1% 16.1 4.41 20.3% 21.9% -1.7% 9.6% 0.457 -0.108
Nathan Eovaldi 77.5% 70.4% 29.1 4.91 16.0% 18.6% -2.6% 2.7% 0.436 -0.060
Jaime Barria 77.4% 86.3% 45.1 3.57 24.5% 19.7% 4.8% 5.3% 0.543 -0.118
Dereck Rodriguez 77.3% 75.9% 20.1 4.87 22.1% 19.4% 2.7% 5.4% 0.476 -0.024
Jordan Zimmermann 77.1% 79.1% 36.1 5.20 20.7% 23.4% -2.7% 5.8% 0.500 -0.066
Frankie Montas 76.8% 61.5% 33.2 2.41 15.6% 15.1% 0.5% 7.2% 0.386 0.002
Wei-Yin Chen 76.3% 67.9% 45.2 5.91 17.1% 15.8% 1.3% 11.0% 0.436 0.078
Francisco Liriano 75.7% 80.7% 57.2 3.90 24.3% 19.2% 5.1% 12.4% 0.529 -0.156
Trevor Richards 75.6% 69.2% 38.0 5.45 17.8% 18.9% -1.2% 10.7% 0.453 -0.011
Steven Matz 75.5% 61.5% 65.1 3.31 17.8% 20.9% -3.1% 10.3% 0.403 0.003
Mike Fiers 74.4% 71.9% 72.2 4.09 18.3% 17.3% 1.0% 4.8% 0.487 0.008
Luis Perdomo 74.4% 68.5% 14.0 8.36 21.2% 22.1% -0.9% 11.7% 0.465 0.058
Matt Moore 74.1% 75.2% 55.0 8.02 20.1% 14.7% 5.4% 9.3% 0.513 0.056
Chris Bassitt 73.5% 64.7% 11.0 2.45 13.0% 18.4% -5.4% 4.1% 0.452 -0.141
Andrew Triggs 73.0% 75.9% 41.1 5.23 21.4% 23.6% -2.3% 9.9% 0.533 -0.120
Adam Wainwright 72.9% 55.9% 18.0 4.00 14.0% 17.1% -3.1% 15.9% 0.400 0.035
Derek Holland 72.6% 70.6% 78.1 4.48 19.8% 21.5% -1.7% 9.4% 0.503 -0.049
Zach Davies 72.3% 69.1% 43.0 5.23 18.7% 16.3% 2.4% 9.0% 0.497 -0.003
Brandon Woodruff 72.2% 65.8% 15.2 6.32 19.2% 18.1% 1.1% 12.5% 0.476 -0.083
Drew Pomeranz 72.1% 65.2% 37.0 6.81 16.7% 20.8% -4.2% 12.1% 0.473 0.070
Eric Lauer 71.8% 61.5% 51.0 5.47 15.8% 19.5% -3.8% 10.8% 0.452 0.048
Mike Minor 71.4% 76.7% 72.1 5.35 20.9% 20.0% 0.9% 5.5% 0.559 -0.047
Andrew Suarez 71.4% 64.7% 59.1 4.70 15.6% 23.5% -7.9% 4.9% 0.480 -0.042
Shane Bieber 71.3% 71.1% 11.1 3.97 18.9% 25.5% -6.7% 3.9% 0.524 0.068
Marcus Stroman 71.2% 72.9% 37.1 7.71 21.2% 18.2% 3.0% 10.2% 0.537 -0.082
Clay Buchholz 71.1% 70.6% 33.2 2.94 17.6% 19.1% -1.6% 5.2% 0.523 -0.123
Jaime Garcia 71.0% 68.1% 61.1 6.16 19.0% 19.9% -1.0% 11.0% 0.508 0.004
Ty Blach 70.9% 60.7% 60.2 4.90 14.7% 11.1% 3.6% 8.5% 0.460 -0.047
David Hess 70.5% 68.2% 37.1 4.82 16.2% 12.5% 3.7% 9.4% 0.514 -0.017
Jake Faria 70.4% 68.1% 47.2 5.48 19.0% 18.2% 0.7% 10.8% 0.516 -0.093
Dillon Peters 70.0% 62.0% 24.2 5.84 16.3% 14.4% 1.9% 11.7% 0.480 -0.011
Jeff Samardzija 69.9% 68.8% 35.2 6.56 17.7% 15.7% 2.0% 13.9% 0.527 -0.084
Matt Harvey 69.7% 63.9% 56.1 5.43 16.7% 17.8% -1.2% 5.8% 0.496 -0.012
Elieser Hernandez 69.2% 70.2% 18.0 4.50 21.0% 12.5% 8.5% 4.2% 0.546 0.042
Eric Skoglund 69.1% 70.3% 49.2 6.70 17.3% 18.0% -0.7% 6.5% 0.548 -0.018
Lucas Giolito 68.8% 62.3% 71.1 7.19 17.8% 12.1% 5.7% 13.6% 0.498 -0.036
Matt Wisler 68.7% 73.6% 17.1 3.63 20.7% 18.6% 2.1% 7.1% 0.575 -0.160
Madison Bumgarner 68.6% 65.0% 17.1 4.67 15.6% 11.8% 3.8% 6.6% 0.519 0.010
Brandon Finnegan 68.0% 63.0% 20.2 7.40 16.0% 13.6% 2.4% 14.6% 0.513 0.040
Anthony DeSclafani 67.6% 64.0% 15.2 4.60 16.4% 22.7% -6.3% 6.1% 0.526 -0.001
Ben Lively 67.2% 62.8% 23.2 6.85 17.9% 19.1% -1.3% 8.7% 0.522 0.023
Kendall Graveman 67.0% 67.6% 34.1 7.60 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 8.2% 0.557 -0.015
Dan Straily 66.7% 77.3% 46.0 4.89 22.1% 19.1% 3.0% 12.3% 0.626 -0.129
Erick Fedde 66.5% 68.1% 16.0 5.63 18.0% 19.4% -1.5% 6.0% 0.568 -0.052
Doug Fister 66.4% 55.9% 66.0 4.50 11.8% 13.8% -2.0% 6.6% 0.487 -0.031
Alex Cobb 65.8% 60.6% 63.0 7.14 13.9% 14.8% -0.9% 5.5% 0.526 0.063
Daniel Gossett 64.9% 66.2% 24.1 5.18 15.5% 11.8% 3.7% 7.8% 0.576 -0.081
Brett Anderson 64.9% 67.1% 15.1 7.63 18.0% 11.1% 6.9% 8.3% 0.582 0.009
Joe Biagini 64.9% 65.9% 18.2 7.71 16.7% 14.4% 2.3% 10.0% 0.574 -0.080
Steven Brault 63.8% 69.2% 26.0 5.54 20.0% 13.4% 6.6% 12.5% 0.611 -0.213
Rich Hill 63.4% 61.1% 30.2 4.99 15.8% 22.5% -6.8% 10.9% 0.562 -0.070
Taijuan Walker 62.7% 57.6% 13.0 3.46 15.1% 16.1% -1.1% 8.9% 0.548 -0.156
Adam Plutko 62.5% 70.4% 23.0 5.09 18.0% 17.7% 0.3% 8.3% 0.636 -0.031
Homer Bailey 62.1% 64.2% 62.0 6.68 15.8% 13.0% 2.8% 8.2% 0.600 -0.036
Hector Santiago 61.1% 62.0% 32.1 6.12 16.5% 15.9% 0.6% 15.2% 0.598 -0.027
Jarlin Garcia 61.0% 65.1% 33.0 3.55 18.0% 16.7% 1.3% 9.9% 0.620 -0.222
Bryan Mitchell 59.3% 47.1% 32.0 6.47 11.8% 10.4% 1.4% 16.9% 0.523 -0.027
Ryan Carpenter 57.4% 58.5% 12.0 6.75 14.9% 10.7% 4.2% 3.6% 0.624 -0.047
Matt Koch 56.9% 60.7% 69.2 4.52 13.5% 12.1% 1.4% 5.9% 0.646 -0.140
Miguel Gonzalez 56.8% 66.3% 12.1 12.41 15.5% 7.6% 7.9% 9.1% 0.684 0.099
Josh Tomlin 55.9% 73.8% 30.0 8.10 19.1% 12.9% 6.2% 3.6% 0.746 -0.019
Carson Fulmer 55.3% 56.5% 31.0 8.13 14.6% 16.6% -2.1% 15.3% 0.640 -0.136
Martin Perez 55.1% 51.8% 22.1 9.67 11.6% 10.9% 0.6% 10.1% 0.610 0.060
Chris Tillman 51.6% 49.4% 26.2 10.46 11.9% 9.5% 2.4% 12.4% 0.641 0.011
Chaz Steinberg http://reddit.com/u/chazzy_cat

Third generation Giants fan, begrudging Kershaw admirer, and lover of Taco Bell

sdf

Comments


Chaz Steinberg

well, I can tell you he ranked #1 overall in 2017 using the same metrics. So it’s certainly not a case of the model being biased against him personally. He’s just not pitching the same this year. But, somehow, he’s been very successful anyway. I don’t have an explanation to be honest, but the numbers are what they are.

Chaz Steinberg

It is a small sample, and overall I have mixed feelings. In his three starts, his opponents weren’t super weak or anything, and he consistently missed bats in all three games. The contact he did allow was weak as well. So that’s all good. But he’s been lucky in multiple ways (K% discrepancy, xSLG discrepancy, BABIP is miniscule). He also is only a 2-pitch guy which is kind of a red flag…it’s hard for starters to be successful with two pitches. To me it seems more likely that the league will adjust soon and his success isn’t super likely to continue. But with a 30% predicted K rate, he might still be worth a flier…

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