Starting Pitcher Metrics Update!

Updated rankings and analysis of starting pitchers, through the lens of pure data-driven metrics

(Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)

Welcome back – this week we return to the topic of starting pitchers.  Let’s just dive right into the updated rankings.  I’ve made one small change this time, showing how the players’ rank has changed since the last update, as opposed to how their pitcher score has changed.  Because the scores are cumulative, they are moving less as more time goes by, so using the ranks instead should just make it much easier to see who is making big jumps.

 

ALL QUALIFIED SP

RankNamePrevChangeERAPitcher ScorePD ScorePredicted K%Actual K%K% DifferenceBB%xSLGSLG-xSLG
1Max Scherzer102.06105.8%110.6%35.2%39.0%-3.8%5.9%0.326-0.014
2Jacob deGrom201.51105.4%103.9%31.2%32.1%-0.9%6.4%0.288-0.014
3Chris Sale5+22.74101.4%101.6%31.3%34.6%-3.3%6.7%0.325-0.009
4Justin Verlander3-11.6097.1%90.9%26.7%32.0%-5.3%5.2%0.311-0.022
5Patrick Corbin6+13.4894.6%98.3%29.7%31.4%-1.8%7.2%0.394-0.047
6Trevor Bauer11+52.5094.3%92.4%27.9%31.2%-3.3%8.0%0.359-0.043
7Aaron Nola8+12.5593.0%85.1%24.1%25.3%-1.3%7.0%0.327-0.024
8Gerrit Cole7-12.5992.9%91.7%28.4%36.1%-7.8%7.9%0.373-0.060
9Charlie Morton10+12.9492.3%87.7%26.9%30.6%-3.8%9.6%0.3540.006
10Luis Severino16+62.0991.6%89.8%26.4%30.8%-4.4%6.5%0.377-0.100
11Sean Newcomb12+12.7091.2%79.0%23.0%24.9%-1.9%11.0%0.311-0.009
12Jon Gray18+65.8991.1%90.6%28.7%27.6%1.1%7.5%0.3890.056
13Blake Snell9-42.4891.1%89.9%27.9%27.3%0.6%9.6%0.385-0.047
14Eduardo Rodriguez[UR][N/A]3.5990.7%86.8%24.8%27.3%-2.5%7.3%0.369-0.001
15Carlos Carrasco21+64.2490.6%94.4%27.4%25.6%1.8%5.9%0.422-0.031
16James Paxton13-33.4489.9%90.1%26.4%31.2%-4.9%7.1%0.402-0.048
17Masahiro Tanaka15-24.5889.5%98.1%28.8%24.8%4.0%6.5%0.460-0.019
18Mike Clevinger28+103.0089.3%84.9%24.3%22.7%1.6%8.1%0.376-0.026
19Jose Berrios1903.3889.1%87.7%24.2%25.5%-1.3%4.7%0.397-0.035
20Lance McCullers Jr.14-63.7788.9%88.8%26.8%24.9%1.9%9.4%0.407-0.031
21CC Sabathia[UR][N/A]3.3087.8%82.1%22.3%18.8%3.5%6.3%0.3770.017
22Kyle Gibson20-23.2787.6%83.9%24.5%23.8%0.7%10.6%0.391-0.058
23Tyler Skaggs30+72.8187.4%84.1%24.1%25.9%-1.8%7.2%0.395-0.021
24Vince Velasquez17-74.8287.0%81.4%24.8%28.5%-3.7%8.5%0.3830.047
25Nick Pivetta38+134.0886.6%84.4%24.5%28.6%-4.2%6.7%0.408-0.027
26Mike Foltynewicz40+142.1686.5%75.0%21.9%28.9%-7.0%10.2%0.346-0.032
27Alex Wood23-44.2286.1%86.3%23.3%21.8%1.5%4.8%0.427-0.037
28Dylan Bundy24-43.8186.0%95.1%27.9%26.8%1.1%7.2%0.487-0.040
29Tyler Anderson31+24.5285.7%83.3%24.2%20.4%3.8%8.3%0.4130.062
30Jameson Taillon29-14.0385.7%77.9%20.6%22.5%-1.9%6.4%0.3770.020
31Corey Kluber26-52.2485.0%80.8%21.8%26.9%-5.1%2.8%0.406-0.066
32Kevin Gausman39+74.4884.8%89.8%26.2%22.6%3.6%5.6%0.4680.014
33Luis Castillo22-115.7784.3%94.1%29.3%22.4%6.9%9.1%0.503-0.011
34J.A. Happ3403.4884.2%78.2%22.5%28.1%-5.7%7.5%0.399-0.057
35Rick Porcello32-33.7084.0%74.6%19.2%22.8%-3.7%5.4%0.377-0.014
36Tyson Ross3603.5183.9%79.0%21.6%24.0%-2.5%8.5%0.408-0.045
37Matt Boyd33-43.6383.8%73.7%21.2%19.6%1.6%9.5%0.374-0.041
38Caleb Smith27-114.0383.6%82.5%24.1%27.2%-3.2%10.0%0.435-0.054
39Gio Gonzalez25-143.0183.5%76.6%21.9%22.5%-0.6%9.8%0.397-0.015
40Stephen Strasburg37-33.4683.5%85.1%24.5%29.1%-4.6%5.8%0.454-0.055
41Miles Mikolas47+62.6983.1%77.9%18.8%18.4%0.4%2.8%0.411-0.064
42Chris Archer4204.2483.0%86.4%26.4%23.7%2.7%8.1%0.469-0.050
43German Marquez41-25.2082.6%72.7%20.7%22.0%-1.3%9.0%0.3830.080
44Dallas Keuchel48+44.1582.3%74.3%18.9%18.2%0.7%5.9%0.3980.026
45Clayton Richard4504.3182.3%78.0%21.9%19.5%2.4%8.1%0.423-0.027
46Zack Greinke35-113.9082.2%87.2%24.3%25.6%-1.3%5.1%0.486-0.032
47Zack Wheeler[UR][N/A]4.8282.1%77.7%21.1%22.1%-1.1%8.6%0.423-0.045
48Cole Hamels44-43.4182.1%85.6%24.7%23.4%1.3%9.2%0.476-0.047
49Michael Fulmer4904.1381.5%80.0%21.6%19.7%1.9%8.4%0.447-0.056
50Kyle Freeland5003.5981.2%74.4%19.7%20.7%-1.1%7.7%0.413-0.013
51Zack Godley62+114.7780.9%82.2%25.1%22.5%2.6%11.0%0.470-0.040
52Sonny Gray[UR][N/A]4.8980.7%74.8%21.7%20.2%1.5%10.1%0.423-0.012
53Julio Teheran63+103.9780.4%78.9%23.0%21.1%1.9%11.3%0.454-0.026
54Jhoulys Chacin5403.1880.1%72.2%20.1%18.0%2.1%9.6%0.413-0.067
55Jake Arrieta51-43.3379.8%64.8%14.8%16.2%-1.5%8.0%0.368-0.014
56Jose Urena55-14.1879.4%74.0%18.9%19.4%-0.5%5.3%0.435-0.045
57Jake Odorizzi56-14.3879.3%82.2%23.9%22.7%1.2%10.3%0.491-0.011
58David Price61+33.7679.1%71.0%18.6%23.8%-5.3%9.0%0.418-0.054
59Jose Quintana64+54.0678.7%70.7%19.3%22.8%-3.5%10.9%0.422-0.021
60Tanner Roark43-173.6878.0%73.1%19.6%19.9%-0.4%8.0%0.447-0.060
61Jakob Junis46-154.4378.0%77.3%20.4%21.9%-1.5%5.5%0.476-0.018
62Aaron Sanchez66+44.3577.9%76.4%22.3%18.8%3.5%12.5%0.471-0.088
63Marco Gonzales65+23.8077.9%75.3%18.5%20.9%-2.5%5.7%0.464-0.048
64Luke Weaver52-124.6977.6%71.0%20.0%19.9%0.0%8.8%0.439-0.042
65Kyle Hendricks59-63.5577.4%74.4%19.7%18.7%0.9%6.7%0.464-0.047
66Jon Lester60-62.2877.4%74.8%20.8%20.6%0.2%8.4%0.467-0.112
67James Shields57-104.5677.2%75.0%20.8%16.2%4.6%8.9%0.471-0.089
68Sean Manaea69+13.5677.0%77.9%20.5%17.9%2.6%5.0%0.493-0.117
69Chad Bettis58-114.6576.8%73.3%20.2%17.4%2.8%8.0%0.464-0.012
70Tyler Mahle68-23.9676.4%73.8%20.4%21.3%-1.0%8.8%0.474-0.018
71Marco Estrada73+24.6676.1%76.7%20.5%18.8%1.7%6.2%0.4970.011
72Michael Wacha53-193.2476.0%72.9%21.2%20.6%0.6%10.2%0.472-0.142
73Reynaldo Lopez67-63.3575.9%70.5%19.5%16.3%3.2%9.7%0.458-0.084
74Trevor Williams71-34.0074.4%65.3%16.0%17.3%-1.3%8.3%0.443-0.054
75Chase Anderson[UR][N/A]4.5473.9%66.7%17.6%17.1%0.5%9.5%0.459-0.044
76Ivan Nova7604.4273.7%74.0%19.1%18.3%0.8%4.7%0.511-0.051
77Felix Hernandez74-35.4473.4%69.1%17.3%18.9%-1.6%8.4%0.482-0.039
78Brandon McCarthy72-64.8973.3%65.1%15.5%18.8%-3.3%6.6%0.4560.035
79Danny Duffy80+15.5571.5%73.2%20.2%18.6%1.6%10.8%0.534-0.052
80Chad Kuhl79-13.7671.1%71.3%21.2%22.1%-1.0%8.8%0.527-0.089
81Ian Kennedy[UR][N/A]5.3170.6%70.9%17.7%21.0%-3.3%8.7%0.531-0.043
82Chris Stratton78-44.2270.1%66.4%18.0%18.7%-0.7%9.9%0.508-0.104
83Jason Hammel77-64.9869.6%73.2%18.6%14.8%3.8%6.3%0.560-0.117
84Sal Romano[UR][N/A]5.1869.4%62.2%15.3%15.9%-0.6%9.9%0.489-0.031
85Andrew Cashner83-24.9869.2%66.8%17.4%19.0%-1.6%10.4%0.5230.010
86Daniel Mengden70-164.0668.4%68.8%16.7%14.7%2.0%4.9%0.547-0.111
87Mike Leake82-54.4767.4%68.9%15.6%14.2%1.4%5.4%0.561-0.104
88Bartolo Colon[UR][N/A]5.1160.3%57.7%11.4%13.5%-2.2%3.8%0.580-0.050

 

Not a whole lot has changed in the top 10 in the past two weeks.  Max Scherzer & Jacob DeGrom continue battling for the top spot, and are basically neck & neck.  Noah Syndergaard is injured and no longer qualifies, which sounds familiar.  Several pitchers have moved up one spot accordingly.  Chris Sale has been his usual fantastic self, getting his score back over 100.  Trevor Bauer has muscled his way all the way up to #6 from #11, which brings me to my first player blurb:

 

Trevor Bauer (SP, Cleveland Indians)

Yes, I covered Bauer two weeks ago, but he is pitching so phenomenally that he deserves the consecutive writeups.  He’s been even better since that update, as I mentioned moving all the way up to the #6 overall ranked pitcher.  Part of this is absolutely related to his schedule, having faced the Tigers once and White Sox twice since then.  Both of these teams are below average offensively, but not terrible.

Last time I gave a lot of credit to increasing the slider usage, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.  Actually his curveball deserves a lot of credit for his success, as well as just his complete arsenal in general.  For starters on that curveball, looking at the pitch movement numbers, it’s getting the best vertical drop this year of his whole career.  That curveball now ranks in the top 30 best in MLB in terms of pitch value.  His changeup is similarly ranked as well, and both pitches are getting excellent results this year (wRC+ of 52 and 69, respectively).  With the fastball and slider, he boasts four solidly above average pitches, with one elite pitch.  That slider continues to look simply amazing.  Overall it’s ranked 2nd in MLB in terms of value per 100 thrown.  It’s generating an wRC+ of -31, and he hasn’t walked a single batter on a slider.

 

Mike Clevinger (SP, Cleveland Indians)

Bauer’s teammate has also been pitching extremely well lately, jumping ten spots up the rankings and now cracking the top 20.  Clevinger is also a fan favorite here at PitcherList, and part of the reason I won my championship last year thanks to reading this site.  But looking at the plate discipline metrics from last year, at first glance I’m actually surprised that he is doing so well this year.  His metrics are down from last year, indicating a K-rate about five points lower. And his actual K% is…five points lower.  But it seems he’s made major improvements on the walk side, cutting his walk rate significantly, which is great. Normally I don’t even talk about Zone%, because it doesn’t correlate at all with anything.  But this is one case where it’s probably making a difference.  Clevinger’s Zone% is up almost ten points from last year, from 40 to 50.  For a change that large, there’s no way it’s not related to his falling walk and strikeout rates.  It seems like he’s made an adjustment to his approach, attacking hitters more aggressively and trusting his defense.

The main thing that stands out in his arsenal to me is that his fastball just isn’t great.  His breaking stuff is simply much better, and not just in the usual way that breaking pitches tend to have better numbers.  For example, on the fastball his K-BB% is just about 8 percent, whereas with the breaking pitches it’s about 30%.  Sure, fastballs are easier to command, and in his case it does have the highest Zone% of his pitches (barely).  But when he does miss, that’s an automatic ball, because no one ever swings.  His O-Swing% on fastballs is just 17%, again compared to the breaking pitches at over 40%.  In terms of results, the fastball allows an wRC+ of 143.  All his other pitches are under forty.  If there was one guy I’d pick to employ a Tanaka-like approach (i.e. minimal fastballs), it might be Clevinger.

 

Sean Newcomb (SP, Atlanta Braves)

Newcomb wasn’t a big riser or faller in this update, but is still deserving of some attention.  Having not followed him super closely this year, I certainly wouldn’t have guessed he was top 15 on anyone’s list.  But there’s no denying he’s been successful this year so far, by several measures.  His ERA currently sits at 2.7 for starters.  His strikeouts are up, his walks are down, and his contact management has been elite (xSLG is 3rd best in MLB).  But looking at the plate discipline metrics, there are some reasons to be concerned.  His K% discrepancy is small, so in a vacuum his K% is believable, but it’s always good to also compare the metrics to last year.  In Newcomb’s case, all three of the important metrics are down this year compared to last.  If all the metrics are pointing towards a worse K/BB ratio, but it’s actually improving, something doesn’t add up.  The differences in Contact% and SwStr% are fairly small, but his O-Swing% is down significantly, and is now 12th-worst in MLB. This has me especially worried about his ability to keep the walks down.  Most of his success is coming from the contact management side, which is also more prone to luck-based swings.  His BABIP is 70 points lower than last year, another indication that he could be in for some regression.  I would be looking to sell Newcomb if you can get good value in return.

 

Mike Foltynewicz (SP, Atlanta Braves)

I didn’t intend to write about teammates in pairs, but that seems to be what’s happening, so let’s roll with it.  Folty was the overall biggest riser in this update, jumping up 14 spots all the way to #26.  Like Newcomb, I wouldn’t have guessed he would be near the top of any rankings.  Let’s look at what he’s doing to get up that far.  For starters, it’s easy to see that his schedule has been a big part.  He had two starts since the last update, against the Padres and Mets.  The Padres are dreadful offensively and the Mets also below average.  He did extremely well to take advantage of those matchups, with 14 strikeouts in 10 innings.

Wondering why he’s so high on these rankings is not the only thing he has in common with his teammate.  Like Newcomb, Foltynewicz has a real problem with his O-Swing%.  His is even worse, actually the worst in all of MLB!  This seems like a glaring weakness that would prevent him from being considered an elite pitcher, or maybe even a good one.  Walks will continue to be an issue for him, no doubt.  But I’m almost more concerned about his strikeout rate, which is way out of whack with the metrics.  His K% discrepancy is second highest in MLB.  Pitchers simply don’t strike out 30% of batters with a SwStr% under ten.  He’s essentially the same pitcher he was last year, just getting a lot better luck with umpires and foul balls.  And that’s not the only red flag in his profile…his BABIP is 40 points under his career number.  When all the signs are pointing the same direction, well, this one is an easy “SELL” for me.

 

Zack Godley (SP, Arizona D-Backs)

I’ve written about Godley’s teammate Patrick Corbin so many times it almost counts as a continuation of the theme.  Godley has risen ten spots since the last update, which is great, because overall he has been incredibly disappointing for a lot of owners this year, coming nowhere near last year’s stellar performance.  As for that breakout year, for the record, the metrics totally supported it.  Actually, they suggested even more strikeout upside, predicting a 30% K-rate compared to his actual 26%.  So I was certainly on board with his high draft value this year; it didn’t seem like a one-hit-wonder at all.

But this year everything is just down.  Five points of O-Swing%.  Three points of Contact%.  Two points of SwStr%.  This is not normal for a healthy 28-year-old pitcher.  When something like that happens, I like to look at two things for an explanation – pitch mix, and velocity.  Pitch mix does not seem to be a big factor, as it’s fairly close to last year all around.  But looking at the velocity is a bit startling.  He is clearly down a couple ticks from last year, across all his pitches.  That is not good.  It could help explain though, why all of his pitches this year are getting poorer results.  Last year his curveball was dominant, and his other three pitches average-ish.  This year his curveball is just “good”, and all the other pitches are getting crushed.

I do see some signs of hope for Godley.  For starters, his schedule has been pretty brutal so far.  He’s drawn the Dodgers and Giants six times, compared to the the Padres and Rockies just twice, which is about as bad as your luck can get in the NL West.  His one matchup against the Rockies was in Coors, of course.  But other than the schedule, there is also the strikeout rate.  His Contact% would suggest a strikeout rate closer to 30 than 20, indicating some pretty poor luck on foul balls.  Overall the metrics do point towards a more useful pitcher than he has been so far this year, and the last couple starts are hopeful as well.  Unfortunately it’s hard to say precisely how much of his struggle is due to the reduced velocity, versus the schedule.  Overall I would definitely consider buying, for the right price, but not expecting last year’s performance.

 

10 IP Minimum (Non-Qualified)

NamePitcher ScorePD ScoreIPERAPredicted K%Actual K%K% DifferenceBB%xSLGSLG-xSLG
Matt Strahm105.7%105.0%10.00.9031.8%35.1%-3.4%2.7%0.290-0.061
Freddy Peralta101.8%97.6%15.22.3031.2%41.0%-9.8%13.1%0.293-0.104
Domingo German99.2%104.9%46.05.0933.3%28.7%4.6%7.5%0.3760.020
Noah Syndergaard98.8%99.1%64.23.0630.6%28.3%2.3%4.8%0.3430.021
Shohei Ohtani96.9%99.1%49.13.1034.0%30.5%3.5%10.0%0.368-0.048
Ross Stripling94.7%83.4%57.02.3722.5%30.4%-7.9%2.2%0.2930.059
Johnny Cueto89.8%76.2%32.00.8422.3%22.2%0.0%5.1%0.311-0.105
Carlos Martinez89.3%74.4%62.22.7320.7%22.3%-1.7%14.4%0.306-0.029
Trevor Cahill89.2%92.2%48.22.7728.5%25.0%3.5%5.9%0.425-0.072
John Gant89.2%90.3%15.06.0026.8%29.2%-2.4%6.2%0.413-0.057
Mike Montgomery89.1%88.7%29.21.2123.6%16.7%6.9%6.1%0.403-0.155
Kenta Maeda89.0%89.3%60.03.9026.7%26.3%0.4%9.9%0.409-0.011
Walker Buehler88.8%72.4%51.12.6319.1%26.7%-7.6%5.5%0.298-0.025
Robbie Ray88.7%92.1%27.24.8830.1%36.3%-6.3%13.7%0.432-0.013
Jordan Montgomery87.5%79.9%27.13.6221.5%19.8%1.7%10.3%0.366-0.010
Jack Flaherty87.5%82.0%50.22.6625.7%26.7%-1.1%6.8%0.380-0.038
Hyun-Jin Ryu87.1%79.3%29.22.1224.8%31.3%-6.5%8.7%0.367-0.059
Wilmer Font86.5%72.2%10.12.6121.7%25.0%-3.4%11.4%0.3280.005
Garrett Richards86.3%84.0%68.13.4225.8%26.8%-1.0%11.0%0.410-0.050
Nick Kingham85.4%85.6%35.13.8225.0%24.3%0.7%4.9%0.432-0.066
Seth Lugo85.3%77.8%18.04.0022.4%29.9%-7.6%3.9%0.381-0.030
Andrew Heaney85.2%83.7%71.23.6424.1%23.5%0.6%7.2%0.422-0.043
Joe Musgrove84.7%77.5%29.13.6820.3%23.0%-2.7%4.8%0.387-0.008
Clayton Kershaw84.0%82.2%49.02.7623.1%26.5%-3.5%5.5%0.428-0.036
Sam Gaviglio83.8%81.0%31.23.9820.9%21.5%-0.7%7.4%0.4220.017
Steven Wright82.8%68.2%20.20.4420.0%19.0%0.9%10.1%0.350-0.179
Yu Darvish82.7%78.2%40.04.9524.1%27.2%-3.2%11.7%0.4180.007
Brad Keller82.5%75.4%18.23.3821.0%13.4%7.6%11.0%0.403-0.070
Anibal Sanchez82.4%75.1%39.12.7519.1%23.6%-4.5%7.6%0.402-0.025
Lance Lynn82.4%76.7%73.24.6421.9%22.1%-0.2%13.9%0.413-0.006
Wade LeBlanc82.3%80.7%48.02.0619.6%21.3%-1.8%5.9%0.441-0.085
Fernando Romero81.5%81.0%45.14.1723.5%20.0%3.5%8.5%0.453-0.034
Caleb Ferguson80.9%78.9%10.27.5926.7%25.0%1.7%12.5%0.447-0.047
Zach Eflin80.7%75.1%44.23.4322.0%24.9%-2.9%6.0%0.425-0.050
Dylan Covey80.6%66.8%40.12.9017.1%19.9%-2.9%9.1%0.370-0.054
Paul Blackburn80.4%66.7%12.18.0314.4%12.7%1.7%7.3%0.3720.108
Jeremy Hellickson80.0%77.3%43.12.2820.5%20.7%-0.3%3.7%0.448-0.087
Hector Velazquez80.0%91.4%10.22.5323.4%22.7%0.6%4.6%0.543-0.091
Nick Tropeano79.8%83.7%54.04.8325.5%19.6%5.9%8.9%0.494-0.019
Michael Soroka79.8%78.7%25.23.5122.0%18.6%3.4%6.2%0.461-0.048
Joey Lucchesi79.2%76.8%49.03.8622.7%25.0%-2.3%8.3%0.456-0.033
Austin Bibens-Dirkx79.2%84.6%17.24.5821.5%14.3%7.2%2.6%0.508-0.018
Brent Suter79.2%77.6%68.24.4620.2%19.3%0.9%5.2%0.462-0.014
Junior Guerra78.9%74.7%71.22.8921.3%22.9%-1.6%8.9%0.446-0.091
Jordan Lyles78.8%72.6%47.04.7917.9%19.9%-2.1%5.5%0.4330.051
Blaine Hardy78.3%70.9%39.23.4016.9%16.4%0.5%4.4%0.428-0.036
Yonny Chirinos78.3%75.9%22.24.3720.1%21.0%-0.9%8.0%0.462-0.043
Ryan Yarbrough78.3%70.7%20.25.2318.4%19.1%-0.7%6.7%0.427-0.002
Tyler Chatwood78.3%65.8%68.13.9519.1%20.3%-1.3%20.0%0.395-0.064
Jason Vargas77.9%82.2%37.28.6022.9%17.8%5.1%7.8%0.5090.104
Carlos Rodon77.8%74.1%16.14.4120.3%21.9%-1.7%9.6%0.457-0.108
Nathan Eovaldi77.5%70.4%29.14.9116.0%18.6%-2.6%2.7%0.436-0.060
Jaime Barria77.4%86.3%45.13.5724.5%19.7%4.8%5.3%0.543-0.118
Dereck Rodriguez77.3%75.9%20.14.8722.1%19.4%2.7%5.4%0.476-0.024
Jordan Zimmermann77.1%79.1%36.15.2020.7%23.4%-2.7%5.8%0.500-0.066
Frankie Montas76.8%61.5%33.22.4115.6%15.1%0.5%7.2%0.3860.002
Wei-Yin Chen76.3%67.9%45.25.9117.1%15.8%1.3%11.0%0.4360.078
Francisco Liriano75.7%80.7%57.23.9024.3%19.2%5.1%12.4%0.529-0.156
Trevor Richards75.6%69.2%38.05.4517.8%18.9%-1.2%10.7%0.453-0.011
Steven Matz75.5%61.5%65.13.3117.8%20.9%-3.1%10.3%0.4030.003
Mike Fiers74.4%71.9%72.24.0918.3%17.3%1.0%4.8%0.4870.008
Luis Perdomo74.4%68.5%14.08.3621.2%22.1%-0.9%11.7%0.4650.058
Matt Moore74.1%75.2%55.08.0220.1%14.7%5.4%9.3%0.5130.056
Chris Bassitt73.5%64.7%11.02.4513.0%18.4%-5.4%4.1%0.452-0.141
Andrew Triggs73.0%75.9%41.15.2321.4%23.6%-2.3%9.9%0.533-0.120
Adam Wainwright72.9%55.9%18.04.0014.0%17.1%-3.1%15.9%0.4000.035
Derek Holland72.6%70.6%78.14.4819.8%21.5%-1.7%9.4%0.503-0.049
Zach Davies72.3%69.1%43.05.2318.7%16.3%2.4%9.0%0.497-0.003
Brandon Woodruff72.2%65.8%15.26.3219.2%18.1%1.1%12.5%0.476-0.083
Drew Pomeranz72.1%65.2%37.06.8116.7%20.8%-4.2%12.1%0.4730.070
Eric Lauer71.8%61.5%51.05.4715.8%19.5%-3.8%10.8%0.4520.048
Mike Minor71.4%76.7%72.15.3520.9%20.0%0.9%5.5%0.559-0.047
Andrew Suarez71.4%64.7%59.14.7015.6%23.5%-7.9%4.9%0.480-0.042
Shane Bieber71.3%71.1%11.13.9718.9%25.5%-6.7%3.9%0.5240.068
Marcus Stroman71.2%72.9%37.17.7121.2%18.2%3.0%10.2%0.537-0.082
Clay Buchholz71.1%70.6%33.22.9417.6%19.1%-1.6%5.2%0.523-0.123
Jaime Garcia71.0%68.1%61.16.1619.0%19.9%-1.0%11.0%0.5080.004
Ty Blach70.9%60.7%60.24.9014.7%11.1%3.6%8.5%0.460-0.047
David Hess70.5%68.2%37.14.8216.2%12.5%3.7%9.4%0.514-0.017
Jake Faria70.4%68.1%47.25.4819.0%18.2%0.7%10.8%0.516-0.093
Dillon Peters70.0%62.0%24.25.8416.3%14.4%1.9%11.7%0.480-0.011
Jeff Samardzija69.9%68.8%35.26.5617.7%15.7%2.0%13.9%0.527-0.084
Matt Harvey69.7%63.9%56.15.4316.7%17.8%-1.2%5.8%0.496-0.012
Elieser Hernandez69.2%70.2%18.04.5021.0%12.5%8.5%4.2%0.5460.042
Eric Skoglund69.1%70.3%49.26.7017.3%18.0%-0.7%6.5%0.548-0.018
Lucas Giolito68.8%62.3%71.17.1917.8%12.1%5.7%13.6%0.498-0.036
Matt Wisler68.7%73.6%17.13.6320.7%18.6%2.1%7.1%0.575-0.160
Madison Bumgarner68.6%65.0%17.14.6715.6%11.8%3.8%6.6%0.5190.010
Brandon Finnegan68.0%63.0%20.27.4016.0%13.6%2.4%14.6%0.5130.040
Anthony DeSclafani67.6%64.0%15.24.6016.4%22.7%-6.3%6.1%0.526-0.001
Ben Lively67.2%62.8%23.26.8517.9%19.1%-1.3%8.7%0.5220.023
Kendall Graveman67.0%67.6%34.17.6017.1%17.1%0.0%8.2%0.557-0.015
Dan Straily66.7%77.3%46.04.8922.1%19.1%3.0%12.3%0.626-0.129
Erick Fedde66.5%68.1%16.05.6318.0%19.4%-1.5%6.0%0.568-0.052
Doug Fister66.4%55.9%66.04.5011.8%13.8%-2.0%6.6%0.487-0.031
Alex Cobb65.8%60.6%63.07.1413.9%14.8%-0.9%5.5%0.5260.063
Daniel Gossett64.9%66.2%24.15.1815.5%11.8%3.7%7.8%0.576-0.081
Brett Anderson64.9%67.1%15.17.6318.0%11.1%6.9%8.3%0.5820.009
Joe Biagini64.9%65.9%18.27.7116.7%14.4%2.3%10.0%0.574-0.080
Steven Brault63.8%69.2%26.05.5420.0%13.4%6.6%12.5%0.611-0.213
Rich Hill63.4%61.1%30.24.9915.8%22.5%-6.8%10.9%0.562-0.070
Taijuan Walker62.7%57.6%13.03.4615.1%16.1%-1.1%8.9%0.548-0.156
Adam Plutko62.5%70.4%23.05.0918.0%17.7%0.3%8.3%0.636-0.031
Homer Bailey62.1%64.2%62.06.6815.8%13.0%2.8%8.2%0.600-0.036
Hector Santiago61.1%62.0%32.16.1216.5%15.9%0.6%15.2%0.598-0.027
Jarlin Garcia61.0%65.1%33.03.5518.0%16.7%1.3%9.9%0.620-0.222
Bryan Mitchell59.3%47.1%32.06.4711.8%10.4%1.4%16.9%0.523-0.027
Ryan Carpenter57.4%58.5%12.06.7514.9%10.7%4.2%3.6%0.624-0.047
Matt Koch56.9%60.7%69.24.5213.5%12.1%1.4%5.9%0.646-0.140
Miguel Gonzalez56.8%66.3%12.112.4115.5%7.6%7.9%9.1%0.6840.099
Josh Tomlin55.9%73.8%30.08.1019.1%12.9%6.2%3.6%0.746-0.019
Carson Fulmer55.3%56.5%31.08.1314.6%16.6%-2.1%15.3%0.640-0.136
Martin Perez55.1%51.8%22.19.6711.6%10.9%0.6%10.1%0.6100.060
Chris Tillman51.6%49.4%26.210.4611.9%9.5%2.4%12.4%0.6410.011

Chaz Steinberg

Third generation Giants fan, begrudging Kershaw admirer, and lover of Taco Bell

  • Avatar Steve says:

    Sorry, but how is Kluber so low (31???). He’s a top 3 pitcher, easy…

    • Avatar Josh B says:

      This is math and statistics, not opinion. He can’t change that

    • well, I can tell you he ranked #1 overall in 2017 using the same metrics. So it’s certainly not a case of the model being biased against him personally. He’s just not pitching the same this year. But, somehow, he’s been very successful anyway. I don’t have an explanation to be honest, but the numbers are what they are.

  • Avatar John Connors says:

    What do you make of Freddy Peralta? Too small of a sample size to really be able to tell?

    • It is a small sample, and overall I have mixed feelings. In his three starts, his opponents weren’t super weak or anything, and he consistently missed bats in all three games. The contact he did allow was weak as well. So that’s all good. But he’s been lucky in multiple ways (K% discrepancy, xSLG discrepancy, BABIP is miniscule). He also is only a 2-pitch guy which is kind of a red flag…it’s hard for starters to be successful with two pitches. To me it seems more likely that the league will adjust soon and his success isn’t super likely to continue. But with a 30% predicted K rate, he might still be worth a flier…

  • Avatar Frankie says:

    Jon Gray is an enigma. Totally.

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