Spinning The Wheel

Okay, now we’re 10 starts down and let’s see where we are with Zack Wheeler who went 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks against the Brew crew yesterday afternoon. 8.25 K/9, 3.72 BB/9…5.5 IPS…3.72 ERA with a 3.95 FIP/3.88 xFIP…37.5% hard contact…hmmmm. On one hand, I’m more inclined to believe his last six outings over his first four, but that doesn’t really help things even with the 2.65 ERA as his 4.01 FIP and 3.92 xFIP are the same, with an even worse 4.50 BB/9 and 7.94 K/9. He’s also had a damn fine schedule thus far, facing three tough teams (Nats twice + Arizona) with seven ideal matchups (MIA, PHI, PHI, SFG, LAA, PIT, MIL). I think there is still some upside to be tapped into here – his stuff has high potential – but I wonder if we’ll see him make that full climb this year. Not to mention, it’s kinda shocking of all the starters in the league, Wheeler hasn’t been SPOIL’D yet. He’s hanging in the 70s and while he may deserve a small bump to the mid to late 60s, I think he’s going to be a fringe arm to own in 12 teamers and not the guy I want to roll with as my flier.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

Adam Wainwright – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. That’s four straight dope outings from Wainwright as he brings his ERA down to 3.79 and FIP to 3.30. Across those four outings, he’s allowed jsut 1 ER in 26.1 innings (over 6.5 IPS!), with a 2.58 FIP and 4.15 xFIP. Most impressive part to me are the opponents he’s faced in this time, including the Cubs, Dodgers, and Rockies in Coors. Now, this could just be a hot streak and it slows down, though I will note that Wainwright’s Cutter is looking much better in these outings, getting over 1.5 inches of extra vertical drop on the pitch in these four starts relative to his first seven starts of the season. This could mean we’re in for a solid ROS outlook, though have some caution here as this could come crashing down in a blink of eye. Ride it out until we have reason not to.

CC Sabathia – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. I kinda group CC and Waino together as two former studs who flash moments of brilliance that make us wary to buy into. Like Waino, this is the fourth straight solid outing from CC, but it doesn’t come with the same noticeable change, especially when you look at batted ball rates. Waino allowed 26.4% soft contact and 22.2% hard contact in his four game stretch against tough teams. CC? 34.4% hard, 15.6% soft against the Royals, Rays, A’s and Jays. Yikes. He gets the Red Sox next and I’m not buying this.

Corey Kluber – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks. Well look who’s back. Okay, the A’s are striking out a ton and whatnot, but Holy Wade Boggs’ Mustache did his breaking ball look good. #4 here we come!

Chase Anderson – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Hot diggity damn that’s a beautiful line for our Call Boy. Anderson is a hot/cold pitcher that can’t be trusted but he showed up against the Mets and that’s great. Thanks duder, now back to the wire for you. Streamer Record 27-18-8.

Zack Greinke – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Aces gonna ace. No need to freak out after that 5 ER clunker last time out. We good here.

Wade Miley – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. And now we have a quartet of pitchers that made me roll my eyes. Of course that starts with Miley, it’s impossible not to.

Jeff Locke – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Oh no. NO NO NO NO NO. He has returned from the depths to ruin fantasy teams.

Adalberto Mejia – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Mejia is an ultra finesse arm. Y’all know I don’t like those.

Alex Meyer – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Good to see two walks from Meyer, though there is way too much to dislike overall and the only scenario I’m okay starting Meyer is if you’re sacrificing ERA/WHIP for Ks.

Kyle Freeland – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Freeland was out of Coors against a team that hates lefties (Mariners). Sounds about right.

Jharel Cotton – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. Yes it’s nearly a solid QS, but I’m a bit disappointed here. Cotton be a legit arm but until that command shows up, I don’t like trusting him. For now, he’s just a PEAS.

Brandon McCarthy – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. You know what I love? Seeing a guy with nearly identical Soft and Hard contact numbers as McCarthy boasts 25.5% soft and 26.9% hard contact rates across his nine starts. That’s good for a 3.38 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 3.43 xFIP (3.70 SIERA?! His .298 BABIP and 75.4% LOB Rate are as neutral as you’ll find), paired with a solid 8.35 K/9 and 2.31 BB/9. Ummmm, how is he owned in under 50% of leagues?

Eduardo Rodriguez – 5.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. I haven’t gone too in depth on Edu thus far, and I’m upset to see his first real struggle during the season. It’s kinda like the Baseball Gods saw his 8.2% HR/FB rate before this game…Hey Frank, are you seeing this? How did we not catch this for two months?! So four baseballs left Camden and his HR/FB now sits at a normal 12.9% mark. Now he gets the Yanks in the Bronx and I’m a little cautious. Fortunately he skips Detroit and gets the Phils after so this will get better soon. I don’t see Rodriguez taking that leap to Top 25 – I’m frankly a bit surprised to see him Top 40, but that’s 2017 for you – though you should be a happy owner given his steady production and a super low price.

Yovani Gallardo – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. Why did I wake up early for this YoGa?

Marco Estrada – 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Nothing like one start to turn your 3.15 ERA into a 3.86 mark. If this means Estrada is a buy low candidate then SIGN ME UP. Those HRs allowed to Gary Sanchez were bad Changeups, no beating around the bush there.

Today’s Streamer

Jerad Eickhoff vs. San Francisco Giants – Because German Marquez is owned in over 25% of leagues, I’m going with Eickhoff against a poor Giants squad.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Tyler Chatwood vs San Diego Padres – This is in Petco and Chatwood can get the job done against a bad offense outside of Coors.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Tyler Anderson vs. San Diego Padres – He may have been dropped after his poor outing in Coors against the Mariners, but now he heads to San Diego and you want all of this.

Game of the Day

Dallas Keuchel vs. Yu Darvish – Yeah, this is going to be a fun one. Also curious about Cole v Harvey, but that just seems like an evening of disappointment.