Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup – Bello Clinic

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.

Brayan Bello (BOS) @ LAA (L) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 98 pitches.

It was a tougher matchup today for Brayan Bello as he faced the Angels, but he got the job done for trusting managers with a lovely 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 98 pitches performance, sadly getting zero run support and taking the Loss. I had little faith in success here as I didn’t trust Bello to maintain his 12 fastball whiffs (nine via the sinker) from last time and while he failed to do so (0/20 on the sinker, 7/32 on the four-seamer), it didn’t matter. Huh.

His pitch separation was glorious with phenomenal four-seamer command up-and-inside to left-handers and elevated to right-handers, sliders inside the zone, changeups down, and sinkers…doing whatever. That’s two straight nights of fantastic precision from Red Sox starters and two nights of me wondering if it’s something for us to buy into. My gut is urging me to be cautious, but the Reds are heading to Fenway and that feels like a safe play. Start him then and take it from there?

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:

 

Griffin Canning (LAA) vs BOS (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 91 pitches.

Canning was able to go just 32% fastballs as his curve, change, and slider all put in plenty of work. Can’t say I loved the changeups floated into the zone, but the slider was lovely and he avoided damage off the heater as well. Canning isn’t as electric as he once was, but there’s a kitchen sink approach that can work when he toss many wasted pitches. It’s a cool thing.

Colin Rea (MIL) vs HOU (W) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 82 pitches.

That’s one h*ck of a Gold Star for Rea as he earned a Win against the mighty Astros. Even with the Giants next, I just can’t get myself to do it. His stuff is just so pedestrian.

Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) @ PIT (W) – 9.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 104 pitches.

Another complete game from Eovaldi and it’s so dang cool to watch. Oh, and sell high. Sell high?! I mean, sell him high if someone is legit buying him high (and not treating him like SP #30 or whatever). I worry about two things: his 28% hard contact rate (113th overall, 41st percentile) and his splitter currently returning a near 70% strike rate. Combining the likelihood that the splitter gets worse with the hard hit balls and I think Eovaldi falls back down a bit in both strikeout rate and ratios. Oh, and then there’s his lengthy injury history (but who isn’t a injury risk at this point?) But again, I want to emphasize if you’re actually able to sell high. Otherwise, just hold it as there is a chance Eovaldi relatively keeps it up + his floor even when he does come back down to Earth is still productive for your squads.

José Berríos (TOR) @ TB (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 91 pitches.

Sooooo the Great Undulator now has a 2.88 ERA across his last 50 IP. Huh. The curve landed for a ton of strikes here (40% CSW) and the biggest shift I see in his last three games is a realization that his sinker is getting hit far less than his four-seamer – we’re talking 21% hard contact on the sinker (87th percentile!) and 47% on the four-seamer. So what does he do? Only elevate the four-seamer far out of the zone and rely on the sinker inside it with much higher usage. I dig that a lot. There may be something to this that settles Berríos into the ~3.80 ERA range that we’re used to, instead of the 4.50+ he’s haunted us with lately.

Ryne Nelson (ARI) @ PHI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 82 pitches.

Can’t say I loved watching Nelson here as he leaned mostly on the fastball (4/48 whiffs) that found gloves in the field. I still worry about the lack of growth with his secondaries and even with Rockie Road up next, I have concerns.

J.P. France (HOU) @ MIL (L) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 97 pitches.

See? When he doesn’t face a strong offense, France is actually pretty dang good. He’ll get the Twins next and we hold for that.

Bobby Miller (LAD) @ ATL (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 95 pitches.

The third Miller hath arrived and what do you know, he also throws 100 mph. I think it’s the worst heater of the lot (still good, just not elite despite the velocity) but what made me raise an eyebrow was Miller’s ability to mix in sliders and changeups constantly with success against a very strong lineup. He kept the sliders and changeups down often while mostly getting the heater down (his 1 ER in the first came off poorly located four-seamers) and it showcased a more complete approach than I expected. Maybe against a different team, his 98-100 mph fastball earns more than 2/29 whiffs (on 20 swings!), and we’ll get a chance to see that against the Nationals next time out. Let’s say that heater isn’t a massive whiff pitch, then I wonder if the changeup and slider can be commanded this well each time out. If not, there may be some growing pains.

Mike Mayers (KC) vs DET (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 84 pitches.

You’re super confused right now and I don’t blame you. WHO IS THIS GUY?! He throws mediocre 93 mph fastballs but a wicked slider that returned 9/29 whiffs and 45% CSW + his change and curve were mixed in well for 60% strikes. Ahhhh, so he leans heavily on breakers and spotted them well against a poor lineup? Yep, that’s exactly it. If he’s still starting in 10 days against the Marlins, there’s a chance he can do this again with that slider, but that seems like a streeeeetch. I realize after typing that you may be pronouncing it wrong. It’s not like Screech. It’s like strehhhhhhtch. Thanks, I really struggled with that. Always here to help.

Marco Gonzales (SEA) vs OAK (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 88 pitches.

When I see Marco getting an easy matchup, I circle the dang thing. The changeup and curve stayed down as he mixed in cutters and four-seamers up and it worked. Think he can do it against the Pirates next? Probably…?

Dylan Cease (CWS) @ CLE (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 88 pitches.

The Guardians are such a gift to starting pitchers. Seriously, Cease did not have his slider here, so much so that it was his third pitch tonight. Yeeeeesh. He got away with this one y’all.

Spencer Strider (ATL) vs LAD (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 11 Ks – 22 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 104 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. He allowed an extra two unearned runs, but who cares, that’s 11 strikeouts and a Gallows Pole. And hey, it was an off night for his four-seamer. Yeah.

Drew Smyly (CHC) vs NYM (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 85 pitches.

This is a legit Vargas Rule as I imagine Smyly will lose the curve at some point this year. Dunno when, though, so we hold strong.

Eduardo Rodriguez (DET) @ KC (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 90 pitches.

Hmmmmm. That’s a King Cole as I’m sure many are ready to say “Aha! He’s okay!” before they see the 2.00 WHIP. I’d be upset about the few cutters thrown, but the slider stepped in its place for 56% CSW so obviously that’s fine with me. Really beautiful pitch separation up-and-in and down-and-away to lefties and I’m going to call this a Singled Out game rather than a “nah, he’s losing it.” That slider is keeping him above water as he only tossed 17 cutters + changeups here.

Sonny Gray (MIN) vs SF (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 105 pitches.

Okay we’re back to 42% CSW and 83% strike rate curveballs. Phew. Well, just five frames and a 1.60 WHIP. And the slider went 0/7 CSW. But sure, let’s breathe a little easier as the signature hook is looking good again. You’re gonna start him against the Astros and I wish you luck.

Matt Strahm (PHI) vs ARI (ND) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 43% CSW, 28 pitches.

As planned, Strahm opened for Dylan Covey, who impressed with 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks across 91 pitches. Yeah, that Dylan Covey. His sinker was a machine at 40% CSW and his slider/cutter returned enough strikes to cruise through the game but there’s nothing electric here that would have you sit near his horrific floor. It smells, too. Now that’s just mean. ….like daffodils? Oh. I take it back. I hate daffodils. Okay now I’m just confused and I’m gonna walk away. Daffodils…

Alex Cobb (SF) @ MIN (W) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 95 pitches.

I’ll take that all day from Cobb, who elected to suddenly throw more curveballs than splitters (24 vs 23) as the former returned a stupid good 52% CSW. Huh…that’s not supposed to happen. That curve is normally just a “show-me” offering to steal 0-0 called strikes. He was feeling what he was feeling and unless I’m missing something, I have to imagine it gets reverted back to the normal role moving forward.

Yu Darvish (SD) @ WSH (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 90 pitches.

Darvish does what he does regardless of opponent. He’s still going heavy slider/sweeper at 38% combined and it gets my approval, but the fastball command will never be what I want it to be. So it goes.

Logan Allen (CLE) vs CWS (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 85 pitches.

We had some Careful, Icarus here as Allen completed six frames at just 1 ER, then allowed the first four baserunners to reach in the seventh before getting pulled. Fortunately it wasn’t 5 ER, but this was luscious before that seventh frame. Anyway, I think Allen can be considered a Toby for the most part as there isn’t anything particularly elite in his repertoire. Close to a Holly at least.

Austin Gomber (COL) vs MIA (W) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 75 pitches.

That’s a Philly with a sub 1.00 WHIP inside Coors. We count those. Oddly enough, Gomber did this despite a massive drop in velocity (1.5 ticks on the heater), just four whiffs, and 40% changeup usage. WHO ARE YOU.

Luis Medina (OAK) @ SEA (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 88 pitches.

The mad man almost pulled off his third straight PQS as he upped the velocity to 96/97 and returned a wonderful 41% CSW on the slider. I wouldn’t overlook Medina in deep QS leagues, especially with Miami and Milwaukee around the bend after he has to deal with the Astros next.

MacKenzie Gore (WSH) vs SD (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 103 pitches.

Blegggggh. I’m super glad to see some life in that slider, though, as he relied on it plenty in and out of the zone for 49% CSW. There could be something there long term. I feel like you say that every other start about Gore. It’ll come together before the season’s end, I promise.

Eury Pérez (MIA) @ COL (L) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 82 pitches.

Coors is undefeated. Sigh. We start him for a while now and forget about this.

Kyle Bradish (BAL) @ NYY (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 90 pitches.

Not even the slider was good this time around. COME ON SLIDER, YOU WERE THE ONLY ONE WE TRUSTED. You can do better.

Taj Bradley (TB) vs TOR (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 80 pitches.

Ouch. The strikeouts and whiffs were there, but the Jays jumped on heaters and cutters aplenty here. This felt like a bench with the matchup, anyway, and while it may make you scared to try the Dodgers next time, I think that’s a toss-up. There’s a chance he keeps the Ks alive while dancing around the damage.

Tylor Megill (NYM) @ CHC (L) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 78 pitches.

Stop holding onto Megill. Please. The fastballs are too detrimental and the secondaries, even if they performed well tonight, are not what we want them to be.

Adam Wainwright (STL) @ CIN (W) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 77 pitches.

Stop rostering Waino. Seriously, don’t do it.

Rich Hill (PIT) vs TEX (L) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 98 pitches.

Well yeah, it was Texas. Despite how Rich and Texas normally go together, this is an exception.

Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs BAL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 99 pitches.

Aces gonna…make us sad. Remove him from SP #1! You realize his ERA was 2.01 entering this game, right? Cool. It’s a One Night Bland and we move on.

Graham Ashcraft (CIN) vs STL (L) – 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 91 pitches.

Oooooof. You sold high on Ashcraft, right? That’s three of his last four games with 7+ ER and yet another start with his sinker taking a vacation. Sure, he’s not supposed to allow ten hits on a given day and the Cardinals are hot and it’s Great American Small Park, but still. He’s not electric and you have to wonder why he’s on your roster. I’m not sure, honestly. It’s a 10% SwStr rate with a 147th percentile strikeout rate.

 

Game of the Day 

Tyler Wells vs. Nestor Cortes – Can Wells keep up the ratios and whiffs? Is the slider actually back for Cortes?

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

Have Questions? – Join my morning Twitch livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.

Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)