Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup – Lorenzen Garden

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.  

Michael Lorenzen (DET) vs PIT (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 99 pitches.

Before y’all skip over this game and say Blame it on the Pirates, we should give Michael Lorenzen some deserved respect for going 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 99 pitches, earning a Win and turning heads with his third straight solid outing. Both his slider and changeup came through for four whiffs each and plenty of strikes, and the heater wasn’t hit hard.

That’s really it from a skills standpoint, but I wanted to lead with him for one major reason: His schedule is divine. Royals + White Sox x2 is up ahead and as a pitcher who can go six strong each time he dances on the rubber, Lorenzen should be considered as a streaming option across the next two weeks. The ceiling isn’t too high (you’re looking at it!), but there’s production to be had.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:

 

Chase Anderson (COL) vs CIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 59 pitches.

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Domingo Germán (NYY) @ TOR (ND) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 37 pitches.

Germán was ejected with sticky stuff and no, Phil Cuzzi was not involved. It was apparently “the stickiest hand” and that’s all I’ve got for you. It’s unfortunate for many reasons and considering the conflict with Germán earlier in the season about sticky stuff, you have to wonder what he’s doing and if it propelled his incredible SwStr numbers this year. Regardless, his curve is fantastic and the fastball + changeup are a little too volatile for my liking, which means when he returns for the Padres & Dodgers after the inevitable suspension, I’m not sure I want in.

Jalen Beeks (TB) @ NYM (ND) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 26 pitches.

He opened for 4.2 IP and 3 ER of Yonny Chirinos. And none rejoiced.

Lance Lynn (CWS) vs CLE (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 97 pitches.

HE DID IT. WE DID IT. You started him, right? Uhhhhhhh. RIGHT?! No JoRam in the Guardians lineup made this even more of a cakewalk as Lynn returned a whopping 45% CSW on his four-seamer at 93 mph. So I can’t get that excited, but then again, he’ll get the Royals + Tigers next. KEEP IT GOING LYNN. WE NEED THIS.

Josiah Gray (WSH) @ MIA (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 104 pitches.

That’s a Dusty Donut with a weird WHIP and I was hoping for more against the lowly Marlins. But fine, we hold for the Tigers and Royals next, and then likely send him back to the wire. I don’t buy the whole arsenal enough.

Cristian Javier (HOU) vs CHC (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 88 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. Imagine how good this would have been if he didn’t have just a 52% strike rate on his slider.

Dane Dunning (TEX) vs ATL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 92 pitches.

I haven’t been much of a Dunning believer (16% strikeout rate entering this game) and I’m impressed at this result against a strong lineup. He came out sitting 1-2 ticks harder across the board, though not a single pitch returned more than two whiffs. He was able to play the east-west game effectively and I won’t rule out success based on that command in the future. So fine, the Pirates are next and that seems like a solid opportunity. BUT THAT’S IT, THEN I’M DUNN.

Bailey Ober (MIN) @ LAD (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 102 pitches.

Awesome stuff from Ober, producing across the board against the Dodgers. I’ve expressed a fair number of concerns and here he is, killing it despite the matchups. It’s SFG + TOR + CLE up next and if you had to go all three or nothing, I’ll go for it. Just get that changeup a little further down, okay?

Jesús Luzardo (MIA) vs WSH (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 93 pitches.

That’s more like it. The changeup went 50% CSW, while the slider returned 21% swinging strikes as he sat 96/97 mph. That’s my man.

Brandon Williamson (CIN) @ COL (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 72 pitches.

He’s held a sub 10% SwStr rate in Triple-A as his strikeout rate fell below 20%, it was his MLB debut, and he was in Coors. So yeah, this is very obviously the Gold Star of the night (sorry Chase, get more strikeouts next time). He attacked batters with plenty of cutters for 35% CSW and I can see how that works, but it’s not electric. I watched this and thought “this is fine if he hits his spots,” which isn’t what you want from a prospect arm. After all, prospects have generally the most volatile command of all. I suggest holding off on Williamson against the Yankees next.

Wade Miley (MIL) @ STL (ND) – 1.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 22 pitches.

No, this isn’t some Craig Counsel playoff shenanigans, Miley left this one early with a lat injury. Poor fella.

Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs NYY (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 102 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. He’s looking so dang good right now as the velocity is still at 96 mph. See? All is well. You said that last time and then he had a blowup start. Pfffffft, that was the past! We’re living in the now. Get with it.

Brady Singer (KC) @ SD (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 101 pitches.

A near VPQS and yet we take it. The coin flips hath returned to the mean. If you flip ‘em long enough, you’ll get the outcome you desire. But just six whiffs and a 23% CSW?! Yeah, that’s kinda whack. It has felt like the slider has been super low in the whiff department more often than normal, and yet…here were are. HERE. WE. ARE. Wanna hear the actual good news? DET + WSN + Rockie Road follow. What a lucky guy.

Clayton Kershaw (LAD) vs MIN (L) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 90 pitches.

Aces gonna…oddly toss 90 pitches in four frames. TATIAGA had it and got Singled Out and I hate this. How could you do this to Kersh?!

Alex Cobb (SF) vs PHI (ND) – 3.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 86 pitches.

Oh dear, 86 pitches for ten outs?! If only he had a slider that could help him get strikes when his splitter returns 2/25 CSW. Not whiffs, CSW. That’s an 8% clip and without “The Thing”, Cobb fell apart. It should be back soon, hopefully against the Twins next.

Dean Kremer (BAL) vs LAA (W) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 95 pitches.

He didn’t maintain the 96 mph he had last game (94.5 mph here) and his primary four pitches all failed to hit 25% CSW. Don’t go after Kremer.

Jordan Montgomery (STL) vs MIL (L) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 98 pitches.

That WHIP is painful, but we should be glad to see both the change and curve return 38%+ CSW marks. But he has so many losses! The Bear is cursed this way and life isn’t fair. Well that’s blunt and frustrating. Yuuuuuuup.

Jared Shuster (ATL) @ TEX (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 66 pitches.

Shuster returned in a clear avoid of a start and I’m glad to report he was nearly two ticks up on everything. Command was actually kinda solid, too, and if he faced weak opponents next (Seattle & Philly), then I’d consider checking in for a start in O.Co. It’s gotta be nice pitching to the sound of a cool breeze, yeah?

Luis Ortiz (PIT) @ DET (L) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 81 pitches.

Bleeeeegh. The slider went 7/24 whiffs but as his premier pitch, it has to do more than a 58% strike rate. The sinker and four-seamer seem like they should be good at 96 (huh, that’s two ticks down from 98), but they don’t miss bats (1/43 whiffs) and he didn’t wield them with precision. Really thought those heaters + slider would be much better tonight. But hey, That’s Baseball, Suzyn. And now it’s the Rangers and we obviously throw him back to the wire.

Zack Wheeler (PHI) @ SF (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 101 pitches.

Despite returning 20 whiffs and a Gallows Pole, Wheeler was Singled Out by the Giants and it pains me massively. He deserved better.

Nick Pivetta (BOS) vs SEA (W) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 98 pitches.

When was the last start when Pivetta allowed fewer than 3 ER or allowed fewer than seven baserunners? If you guessed April 10th, you cheated. I SEE YOU. Sure, he got a Win because Wins are dumb, but y’all know better than to trust Pivetta. At least the curve had a 43% CSW?

Tommy Henry (ARI) @ OAK (ND) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 83 pitches.

Remember kids, don’t trust kids with two first names. Unless it’s Joe. He’s cool.

Chase Silseth (LAA) @ BAL (L) – 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 80 pitches.

H’ok so Silseth made his 2023 debut after showcasing a rather unremarkable arsenal last year and…he’s sitting at least a tick down on everything, went 18% CSW on his splitter, and had 1/14 whiffs on cutters + sliders. Yep, we’re very much out.

Justin Steele (CHC) @ HOU (L) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 82 pitches.

At first it looks like the regression is hitting, but it turned into just a Dusty Donut with 35% CSW fueling a King Cole and eight strikeouts. The slider is still struggling (3/23 whiffs and just 25% o-swing), but the fastball command is there. Just some poorly timed hits allowed here, it happens. Only five hard hit balls is a lovely thing and I really hope that slider matches the heater’s quality soon.

Luis Castillo (SEA) @ BOS (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 91 pitches.

Aces gonna stumble once again over the last few weeks. I’m not overly concerned – 97 mph velocity is great and he’s had these stretches before – and I’m surprised he turned to his changeup 30% of the time when his slider is the better offering at the moment. Whatever, if there’s any pair of teams to get you back on track, it’s Jokeland + Pittsburgh. He’ll be fine.

Shane Bieber (CLE) @ CWS (L) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 12 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 88 pitches.

Shane. Plz. He got absolutely torched in the fifth frame, though like your favorite radio station, the hits kept coming throughout the night. The slider needs to be elite for Bieber to function properly and save him in those moments and when he back was against the wall, it wasn’t there. This isn’t the Bieber we’ve known for three seasons, sadly. He doesn’t have the slider/curve punch of old.

Kyle Muller (OAK) vs ARI (ND) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 72 pitches.

Well yeah, this marks six of his last seven games with at least 4 ER. On the bright side, he looks to have found his changeup (40% CSW, great spots), but clearly there’s so much left to do.

Seth Lugo (SD) vs KC (L) – 2.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 42 pitches.

Bleeeeeeeegh. Lugo strained his calf in this one, which explains the horrific line pretty easily. Poor guy, he was really coming into his own. I hope he makes it back soon.

Justin Verlander (NYM) vs TB (L) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 96 pitches.

Oh dear. His heater was hittable and the slider wasn’t working as it had in the past, propelling two home runs and booos among the home crowd, experiencing Verlander for the first time in New York. Yeeeeeesh. He’ll be better than this (buy low?) as he finds the command he’s had for his career.

 

Game of the Day 

Matthew Liberatore vs. Corbin Burnes – Enjoy Burnes dealing with Arenado + Liberatore makes his 2023 debut. He’s a solid spec add, though the heater has been a little worse in the minors lately.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

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Photo by Steven King/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis